impact of vehicle and fuel standards on premature mortality and emissions
DESCRIPTION
Slides and audio from a webinar presenting the results of an ICCT study that evaluates worldwide historical and potential impacts of fuel quality and vehicle emission standards, presents a global policy roadmap through 2030, and quantifies the benefits to public health and the climate. The study finds that if countries worldwide followed a policy path to Euro 6/VI-equivalent emission standards and ultra-low sulfur fuel, early deaths from road vehicle emissions could be reduced by 75% in the year 2030.TRANSCRIPT
The Impact of Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards on Premature Mortality and Emissions!
Cristiano Façanha, Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller, Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg!
ICCT Roadmap Webinar Series!December 4th, 2013!
1!
! Introduction and report overview!! 15 min, Cristiano Façanha!
! Emissions methodology!! 10 min, Josh Miller!
! Health impact methodology!! 20 min, Sarah Chambliss!
! Q&A!! 15 min!
Webinar Structure!
2!
Global Transportation Roadmap Series!
www.theicct.org
BEIJING | BERLIN | BRUSSELS | SAN FRANCISCO | WASHINGTON
THE IMPACT OF STRINGENT FUEL AND VEHICLE STANDARDS ON PREMATURE MORTALITY AND EMISSIONSICCT’S GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION HEALTH AND CLIMATE ROADMAP SERIES
AUTHORS: Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller, Cristiano Façanha, Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg
3!
Most advanced controls can reduce emissions by over 99%!
4!
There is wide discrepancy regarding the stringency of vehicle emission standards worldwide!
2 /II
3 /III
4 /IV
5 /V
6 /VI
1 /I
Grey: no standards/import standards or unknown.!
Standards shown for LDVs!
5!
A global focus on health impacts from transportation is critical to provide policy insights!
LATIN AMERICA
CHINA AND INDIA
NON-EU EUROPE AND RUSSIA
AFRICA MIDDLE EAST
ASIA-PACIFIC-40
BEST PRACTICE AUSTRALIA, CANADA, EU-28 JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, US
6!
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Middle East
Africa
Asia-Pacific-40
Non-EU Europe
Russia
Latin America-31
Mexico
Brazil
India (nat’l)
India (early adopters)
China
China- Metro buses
South Korea
Australia
Japan
U.S.
Canada
EU-28
Euro IV Euro V Euro VI Next-GenerationEuro IIIAccelerated Standards
Pre-Euro Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6Baseline Standards
The study relies on a well-informed policy roadmap towards cleaner vehicles and fuels!
HDV Standards Timeline!
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Early
dea
ths
Best Practice China & India
Non-EU Europe, Russia, &
Latin America Other Countries
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
-7%
-79%
-74%
-80%
Baseline Accelerated (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030
7!
Latest vehicle controls can reduce emissions and premature mortality worldwide by 75% !!
Globally new standards could save 210,000 early deaths in 2030 and 25 million of years of life through 2030.
At a global level, health impacts from urban vehicle particle emissions will increase 50% by 2030 unless new vehicle and fuel standards are adopted.
8!
Baseline Accelerated
Tota
l non
-CO
2 GH
G e
mis
sion
s (M
tCO
2e)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
02000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 20302000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030
Best Practice China & India Latin America Non-EU Europe & Russia Other Countries
And they can cut short-lived climate pollutants by over 80%!
80%
9!
HEALTH EFFECTS
EmissionFactors
UrbanIntake
Fractions
Concentration-ResponseFunction
Early Deathsand Years of
Life Lost
Tons of PMEmitted
Urban AirQuality
VehicleActivity
SOURCE EMISSIONS CONCENTRATION
! Source: vehicle-km traveled by road vehicles in urban areas!! Historical data from government agencies in major markets, IEA in other countries!! Projected based on changes in population and PPP-GDP!
! Emission factors: grams per vehicle-km!! Consider vehicle fleet composition, fuel type, emission control technology!! Influenced by emission standards and diesel sulfur content!
! Emissions: metric tons, product of activity and emission factors!
Framework for evaluating the health impacts of transportation emissions!
! Reasons for using emission factors!! Reflect policy effects on real-world emissions!! Lifetime average emission factors include deterioration!! Depend on speed, temperature, road grade, vehicle types!
! Reasons for applying COPERT factors across regions!! Most countries follow European classification scheme for
vehicle standards (Euro 1/I through Euro 6/VI)!! Developed by strong research/academic team!! Well-supported, up-to-date standards and technologies!! Comprehensive, public documentation!! Emission factors broadly in line with other models!
Emission factors!
11!
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
Uncontrolled Euro 1/I Euro 2/II Euro 3/III Euro 4/IV Euro 5/V Euro 6/VI
Ave
rag
e lif
etim
e em
issi
on
fact
or
(gra
ms
PM
2.5 /k
m)
Diesel: 2,000 ppm 500 ppm 350 ppm 50 ppm 10 ppm
-99%
-99%
HHDT LDV
Fuel Sulfur Level
-25%
-38%
-22%
-77%
-90%
-68%
-20%-33% -23%
-95%
Vehicle emission limits and ultra-low sulfur diesel are key drivers of PM emission reduction!
DPF!DPF!
12!
Vehicle turnover translates standards into fleetwide emission reductions!
! Figure: HDV activity and NOx emissions by control level in China!
! Baseline: China IV yields initial reductions, outpaced by VKT growth!
! Accelerated: China V and VI result in sustained NOx reductions!
Veh
icle
-km
tra
vele
d (b
illio
n)
Baseline Accelerated
NO
X (
met
ric
kilo
ton)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Uncontrolled Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI
13!
Baseline Accelerated
2010 2015 20252020 2030 2010 2015 20252020 2030
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
NO
X (g
/km
)PM
(g/k
m)
Best Practice China & India Latin America Non-EU Europe & Russia Other Countries
Accelerated standards drive convergence in average emissions per vehicle-km!
Bars = variation in emissions (g/km)!
14!
Emissions projections!
! Figure: (top row) vehicle-km, (below) PM, NOx, HC emissions!
! Baseline: sustained decreases in Best Practice regions!
! Accelerated policies reverse emission trends in many regions (2020-2030)!
! By 2030, 80% reduction in PM compared to baseline in regions yet to adopt best practices!
-4%-83% -76%
-76%-83%
-40% -82%-71%
-55%-71%
-47%-66%
-78%
-70%-54%
Baseline Accelerated (%) Data labels indicate annualized growth in vehicle activity
1.3% 7.4%
3.4%3.5%
4.3%
(%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030
2010
2000
2005
2015
2025
2020
2030
2010
2000
2005
2015
2025
2020
2030
2010
2000
2005
2015
2025
2020
2030
2010
2000
2005
2015
2025
2020
2030
2010
2000
2005
2015
2025
2020
2030
Best Practice China & India Latin AmericaNon-EU Europe
& Russia Other Countries
10,000
5,000
0
Veh
icle
-km
tra
vele
d(b
illio
n)
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
300
200
100
0
10,000
5,000
0
PM (
met
ric
kilo
ton)
NO
X (
met
ric
kilo
ton)
HC
(m
etri
c ki
loto
n)
Health effects quantified
15!
HEALTH EFFECTS
EmissionFactors
UrbanIntake
Fractions
ChemicalTransport
Model
Concentration-ResponseFunction
HealthImpacts
GriddedEmissionsInventory
Urban AirQuality
Gridded AirQuality
VehicleActivity
SOURCE EMISSIONS CONCENTRATION
Tons of PMEmitted
Disaggregation
Aggregate
Urban concentration with intake fractions!
16!
! Intake fraction is the ratio of the mass of pollutant inhaled to mass emitted!
! !
! !!! Intake fraction varies by source and setting!
! Size of exposed population!! Proximity of emissions to population!! Environmental persistence of pollutant!
Intake fraction!
17!
Variation in intake fraction worldwide (Apte 2012)!
18!
Calculating concentration from intake fraction!
Breathing rate constant (Q) !
19!
! The “relative risk” predicts how much more often deaths will occur at higher concentrations!
! The size of the urban population and the baseline disease rate both influence the final estimate of total early deaths!
! RRs are estimated for 3 disease categories that lead to premature mortality!! Lung cancer, adults over 30!! Cardiopulmonary disease, adults over 30!! Acute respiratory infection (ARI), children under 5!
Estimating impacts from exposure!
20!
11.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.8
5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75
Rel
ativ
e R
isk
Ambient PM2.5 (!g/m3)
!C = 10 !g/m3 "RR = 0.038
!C = 10 !g/m3 "RR = 0.110
! Two forms of concentration-response functions, linear and log-linear
(Ostro et al. 2005)!! The background concentration can influence the increase in relative risk!! We take the average of the change in risk near the counterfactual and
at the background concentration!
Estimating impacts: nuances of the concentration-response function!
21!
! Best Practice countries show decreased years of life lost under baseline conditions!
! Urbanization and rising emissions cause increased baseline health impacts in China & India and Other Countries!
! Accelerated policies reduce impacts across regions!
Premature mortality from on-road urban PM2.5 emissions!
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Early
dea
ths
Best Practice China & India
Non-EU Europe, Russia, &
Latin America Other Countries
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
-7%
-79%
-74%
-80%
Baseline Accelerated (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030
22!
Comparing health impacts !
! Rates control for population size and age!
! Accelerated policies bring mortality rates to comparable low levels across regions !
Best Practice China & India Latin AmericaNon-EU Europe
& Russia Other Countries
250
200
150
100
50
0
250
200
150
100
50
0
Acc
eler
ated
Ag
e-ad
just
ed m
orta
lity
rate
Bas
elin
eA
ge-
adju
sted
mor
talit
y ra
te
200
0
20
10
2020
2030
200
0
20
10
2020
2030
200
0
20
10
2020
2030
200
0
20
10
2020
2030
200
0
20
10
2020
2030
Australia
Canada
EU-28
Japan
South Korea
U.S.
China
India
Brazil
Latin America-31
Mexico
Non-EU Europe
Russia
Africa
Asia-Pacific-40
Middle East
23!
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
North America(U.S. + Canada)
China India WesternEurope(EU-28)
Western FSU(Russia+
Non-EU Europe)
South &Central Africa
(Africa)
North Africa/Middle East
Latin America(Brazil,Mexico,
Latin America-31)
Global
Ann
ual m
orta
litie
s pr
even
ted
Range given by Shindell et al. 2011 Results from this analysis
Comparison of benefits estimates between this analysis and Shindell et al. (2011)!
24!
Benefits beyond preventing early death!
25!
! Very clean vehicle and fuel technologies exist. These technologies are already cost effective, and costs will continue to decline.!
! Despite progress in developed countries, current penetration in developing countries is insufficient to limit the worsening in health impacts.!
! Standards have proved to be an effective policy to bring substantial health and climate co-benefits.!
! The adoption of new standards would cause emission rates around the world to converge at much reduced levels, resulting in a drop in PM2.5 , NOX, and HC emissions.!
! By a conservative estimate, reducing PM2.5 emissions through new standards will prevent over 210,000 early deaths in the year 2030 in urban areas. !
! The full health benefits of new policies increase when considering nonfatal health impacts, impacts in rural areas, and impacts of ozone.!
Main Messages!
26!
ICCT’S Global Transportation Health and Climate Roadmap Series!
Thank you! For more information:!
Global Transportation Energy and Climate Roadmap!http://www.theicct.org/global-transportation-energy-and-climate-roadmap!
The Impact of Vehicle and Fuel Standards on Premature Mortality and Emissions!http://www.theicct.org/global-health-roadmap!
Cristiano Façanha [email protected]!
Roadmap Model!http://www.theicct.org/global-transportation-roadmap-model!