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Impacts and Risks of Climate Change in Oregon
Climate Change Science and Adaptation in Oregon
Margi Bradway
Sustainability Program Manager
Oregon Transportation Commission
January 19, 2011
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Three Related Efforts Regarding Adaptation in Oregon:
1. Oregon Climate Assessment Report (OCAR)
2. Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework
3. ODOT’s Adaptation Efforts
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Mitigation Versus Mitigation Versus AdaptationAdaptation
� Climate Change Mitigation is any action taken to eliminate or reduce the long-term risk and hazards of climate change. - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
� Climate Change Adaptation is adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment caused by climate change.- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Adapting is taking “practical steps to protect communities from the likely disruption and damage that will result from effects of climate change.”
- United Nations Convention on Climate Change Secretariat
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1. Oregon Climate Assessment Report (OCAR)
• Produced by the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI)
• 2007 Oregon Legislature required a biennial state of the climate change science report for Oregon. – Regionally-specific scientific
data about climate change
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Key Findings of OCAR
• Increase in annual mean air temperature
– 0.2 to 1°F per decade
• Increase in wildfire
– 180% to 300% increase in regional forest area
burned by the end of the century
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• Shift in distribution of
plant and animal species– Shift northward due to
warmer climate.
– Pests and diseases will
continue to expand northward.
• Decrease in summer water supply– 14% decrease in summer precipitation
projected by 2080s.
– Cascade snowpacks will be one half in 2080.
Key Findings of OCAR (cont.)
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• Sea level rise
– Global mean sea level rise 2 to 4 feet by 2100.
– Wave heights causing more erosion and flooding.
• Increase in frequency and magnitude of coastal flooding events
Key Findings of OCAR (cont.)
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OCAR: Impacts to Transportation
1. Coastal roads, bridges and culverts
2. Infrastructure in floodplains
3. Roads and bridges at the urban/rural
interface
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2. Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework
• Convened by Governor Kulongoski
• Agency Directors meetings, lead by
DLCD
• Broad framework to guide state
agencies.
– Outline 11 key climate change risks to
Oregon.
– Identified list of state-level priority
actions (low-hanging fruit).
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11 Key Climate Risks
1) Increase in average annual air temperature and likelihood of extreme heat events. Very Likely
2) Changes in hydrology and water supply; reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins; changes in water quality and timing of water availability. Very Likely
3) Increase in wildfire frequency and intensity. Likely
4) Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes in ocean chemistry and increased ocean acidification. Likely
5) Increased incidence of drought. Likely
6) Increased coastal erosion and risk of inundation from increasing sea levels and increasing wave heights and storm surges. Likely
7) Changes in the abundance and geographical distributions of plant species and habitats for aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Likely
8) Increase in diseases, invasive species, and insect, animal and plan pests. Likely
9) Loss of wetland ecosystems and services. Likely
10) Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and incidence and magnitude of damaging floods. More likely than not
11) Increased incidence of landslides. More likely than not
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How will these findings impact transportation in Oregon?
Infrastructure:
• Roads
• Bridges
• Culverts
• Right of Way
• Airports
• Railroads
• Pipelines
• Stormwater Systems
Operations:
• Emergency Response
• Traffic Management
• Maintenance
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3. ODOT’s Efforts on Adaptation
Lead by Sustainability Program working with
the ODOT Climate Change Technical
Advisory Group
Three steps:
1) Research
2) Strategy
3) Plan
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1) Research – almost complete
– Funded research with other States
through a pooled research program
– Interviews with ODOT employees
– Best practices of local, state and
international governments regarding
transportation
ODOT’s Efforts on Adaptation (cont.)
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2) Strategy - underway
– Vulnerability and Risk
Assessment
– List of strategies to
reduce vulnerability
– Identify Priorities
ODOT’s Efforts on Adaptation (cont.)
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3) Plan – future work– Long-term plan to
guide the agency in smart investments and decision-making
– Continuous cooperation and coordination with partners, state agencies and local governments.
ODOT’s Efforts on Adaptation (cont.)
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Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
Potential Impacts to ODOT Infrastructure
Coastal Storm Intensity Changes in Precipitation
Changes in Air Temp
Sea level rise
Wave Heights
Wildfire
Population movement
Changes in veg. and wildlife
species
Wind storms and trees Flooding
Changes in seasonal flow
rates
LandslidesErosion
Goal: to assess how each of these potential climate change impacts affect the various types of transportation infrastructure in Oregon.
Summary of Next Steps for ODOT
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Questions?Questions?
Margi BradwaySustainability Program Manager
Oregon Department of Transportation
Director's Office
Salem, OR 97301
Phone: (503) 986-3491
Email: