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TRANSCRIPT
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Impacts of climate variability and water resources development on river flows and water balance of
Huai Luang Watershed, Thailand
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Thanapon Piman, Chalermchai Pawattana, Anujit Vansarochana, Aekkapol Aekakkararungroj, Rattana Hormwichian
The 2017 International SWAT ConferenceWarsaw University of Life Sciences28th – 30th June 2017, Warsaw, Poland
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Study area
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Watershed area: 4,122 km2
Monthly temp: 16.3-36.3⁰C
Annual rainfall: 1,145–2,174 mm
Land-use: 68%agriculture 14%forest 6%urban area
Stakeholders in the basin have highlighted that changing rainfall pattern/variation and impacts of water resources development are the most critical concerns
Urbanization
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River Profile
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Distance (km)
Elev
atio
n (m
)
Huai Luang Reservoir
Udon Thani City
Mekong River
Flood level
Flood in 2011
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Rainfall analysis: trend and variation
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An increasing trend of annual rainfall during 32 year-period from 1982–2013 The variation of annual rainfall has double from ± 250 mm during 1982–1993
to ± 500 mm during 1998–2013
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Rainfall analysis: spatial distribution
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Water resources development plan
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Increase irrigation area
315,195 rai (127,557 ha)
200,000 rai (80,938 ha)
Reduce water shortage for irrigation
Reduce flood area 54,390 rai (22,011 ha)
Increase water supply for domestic and industrial use
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Modelling Tools
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Rainfall-Runoff model Water allocation model
Hydrodynamic and flood model
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SWAT Model Setup
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Topo/weather Land cover Soil SWAT Subbasin
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SWAT Model Calibration and Validation
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Calibration Validation
Calibration Validation
Daily flows
Monthly flows
Indicator Cal Val
R2 0.74 0.76
NSE 0.69 0.70
Indicator Cal Val
R2 0.81 0.91
NSE 0.79 0.84
Satisfactory
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Global Sensitivity Analysis
Most sensitive parameters
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1983-1997 1998-2012
Annu
al a
vera
ge fl
ow (m
3/s)
Simulated Flow Analysis
45 %
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Annu
al a
vera
ge fl
ow (m
3/s)
An increasing trend of annual flows at the outlet during 30 year-period from 1983–2012
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WEAP Model Setup
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Irrigation water demand
Domestic water demand
Reservoir operation
Water allocation and water balance
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Water Demand Estimation
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1983-1997 1998-2012
Irrig
atio
n w
ater
dem
and
( mill
ion
m3)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1983-1997 1998-2012Do
mes
tic w
ater
dem
and
( mill
ion
m3) 45 %
23 %
Domestic water demand Irrigation water demand
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Percentage of water supply coverage
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Domestic water use Irrigation water use
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Conclusion
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Next step: Flood Modelling
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Mike Flood (M11+M21) Field Survey
Flood in 2010 during Sep-Oct
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Next step: Impacts of Climate Change
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• Climate change projection database
• 1x1 km resolution • Contain 4 RCPs and 40
GCMs from the CMIP5 • Generate monthly
change factors (rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar radiation) for the SWAT model
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THANK YOU
Acknowledgement: Thai Research Fund (TRF)
Contact: [email protected]
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Impacts of climate variability and water resources development on river flows and water balance of Huai Luang Watershed, Thailand Study area River ProfileRainfall analysis: trend and variationRainfall analysis: spatial distributionWater resources development planModelling ToolsSWAT Model SetupSWAT Model Calibration and ValidationGlobal Sensitivity AnalysisSimulated Flow AnalysisWEAP Model SetupWater Demand EstimationPercentage of water supply coverageConclusionNext step: Flood Modelling Next step: Impacts of Climate ChangeThank you