implementing roi analysis to address enrollment declinemdair.org/resources/documents/session 4_craig...

Implementing ROI Analysis to

Address Enrollment Decline

Craig A. Clagett

Maryland Association for Institutional Research

April 27, 2018

Situation Analysis—the Why?

Study Design—the How?

Academic Portfolio Analysis

Course Management & Scheduling

Administrative Efficiency Study

Economic Impact Analysis

Findings and Actions

Lessons and Takeaways

Efficiency & ROI Analyses

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Course Management and Scheduling

Administrative Efficiency Study

Economic Modeling Specialists Inc.

Economic Impact/Investment Analysis

for Governmental and Donor Relations

Consultants

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Achieving a Sustainable Business Model at CCC

4

Preserve Access AND Drive Attainment

Move from Spending to Investment

Change infrastructure and

culture

then we must get

a better return on

investment from

current

resources

through

understanding

levers for change

of the business

model…which will require a

strategic approach

connecting financial

practice with

institutional change

models.

If we are to

preserve access

and increase

attainment, in a

world of

constrained

resources and

fewer students…

To achieve the ultimate goals of this project, Carroll will need to shift the frame of the dialogue:From Cost Cutting to Maximizing Return on Investment

Situation Analysis

Enrollment

Planning Parameters

Marketing

Salaries and Employee Turnover

Institutional Finances

Governmental Funding Support

Tuition and Fees

Situation Analysis

Includes FTEs Eligible and Ineligble for State Funding

Total Credit & Noncredit FTE Enrollment FY2017

812

1,950

2,130

2,403

2,620

2,724

3,475

4,319

4,882

4,931

4,979

5,532

8,038

11,514

12,263

16,705

19,744

Garrett

Chesapeake

Cecil

Allegany

Wor-Wic

Carroll

Hagerstown

Frederick

Harford

MEDIAN

BCCC

CSM

Howard

AACC

PGCC

CCBC

Montgomery

Carroll’s total FY2017 FTE

enrollment of 2,724 was

48% below the statewide

median for community

colleges. Carroll was

second-largest among the

seven colleges in the

Small College Cohort.

Total FTE EnrollmentEligible and Ineligible for State Funding

Carroll Community College MdAIR April 27, 2018

2,731 2,697 2,6822,479 2,376 2,262 2,134

801708 704

670693

607590

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

23% declinesince FY2011

CET

Credit

3,405 3,3863,149 3,069 2,869 2,724

3,532

SOURCE: MACC Databook, U.S. Census Age 18+

Percent Change, Service Area Population, 2011-17

-2.2

-1.0

0.9

1.4

2.9

3.4

3.5

4.4

4.6

5.5

5.6

7.1

7.8

8.1

8.3

9.7

12.6

Wor-Wic

Chesapeake

Hagerstown

Garrett

CCBC

Carroll

Cecil

Harford

STATEWIDE

PGCC

AACC

Frederick

Montgomery

CSM

Howard

Carroll’s service area

population age 18 and

above grew 4.4%

between 2011 and 2017,

compared to a statewide

growth rate of 5.6%Allegany

BCCC

SOURCE: MACC Databook, U.S. Census Age 18+

Change in Service Area Adult Population, 2011-17

-4,935

-1,367

775

1,250

1,930

3,276

3,507

5,541

7,838

10,134

14,121

21,852

24,366

26,751

32,235

46,480

61,352

Garrett

Wor-Wic

Chesapeake

Hagerstown

Cecil

Carroll

MEDIAN

Harford

Frederick

CCBC

CSM

Howard

AACC

PGCC

Montgomery

Carroll’s service area

population age 18 and

above grew 5,541

between 2011 and 2017,

the most among the

seven small colleges,

but a fraction of the

growth of neighboring

college’s service areas.

Allegany

BCCC

SOURCE: MACC Databooks

Percent Change in Total FTEs, FY2011-FY2017

-35.3

-27.4

-26.7

-24.0

-23.3

-22.9

-20.3

-16.3

-13.6

-12.3

-11.9

-10.6

-10.3

-10.0

-9.9

-9.8

-0.7

BCCC

Allegany

Chesapeake

AACC

Wor-Wic

Carroll

CCBC

STATEWIDE

Hagerstown

CSM

Harford

Frederick

Garrett

Montgomery

PGCC

Cecil

Carroll’s total FTE

(credit and CET)

declined 22.9%,

compared to statewide

decline of 16.3%

between FY11-FY17.

Howard

Age composition of the

population is more

impactful than overall

population totals. Every

college had enrollment

declines, despite most

having service area

population growth.

SOURCE: MHEC Opening Fall Enrollment Report

Percent Change, Credit Headcount, Fall 2016-2017

-10.6

-10.1

-8.7

-8.4

-8.0

-5.9

-4.4

-4.0

-3.8

-2.5

-2.1

-1.0

-0.1

0.3

2.3

4.4

9.0

Garrett

Carroll

CCBC

Allegany

CSM

Cecil

Montgomery

AACC

STATEWIDE

PGCC

Harford

Wor-Wic

Howard

Chesapeake

BCCC

Carroll’s fall credit

headcount declined

10.1% between Fall 2016

and Fall 2017, compared

to a statewide decline of

3.8% for all community

colleges.

Hagerstown

Frederick

Factors Impacting Enrollment

Prevailing political philosophy: Preserve Carroll’s rural character

• Declining births in Carroll County every year since 2004

• Steady decline in high school grads (NCHS closed)

• Dramatic slowdown in new home construction

• Residential permits issued a fraction of prior decades

• Little population turnover due to nature of housing

stock (few large apartment, townhouse communities)

• Negligible net in-migration: In 4 of the past 7 years,

more people left Carroll County than moved in

• Steadily improving economy, very low unemployment =

lower college attendance rates for all populations

Planning Parameter:High School Graduate Enrollment Rate ≥ 25%


27.5

23.725.9

23.822.2

26.2 25.3

20.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Percent of CCPS Graduates Enrolling at CCC Following Fall

Percent Goal

Planning Parameter:Fall-to-Spring Retention, FT Students ≥ 80%


85.0 84.3 83.7 84.5 83.986.5

84.686.9

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Fall-to-Spring Retention of Fall First-time, Full-time Students

Percent Goal

Planning Parameter:Fall-to-Spring Retention, PT Students ≥ 60%


62.8 64.2 61.6

74.7

67.2 67.3 67.0 67.3

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Fall-to-Spring Retention, Fall First-time, Part-time Students

Percent Goal

SOURCE: Degree Progress; MACC Databook

4-Year Graduation-Transfer Rates, 2012 Cohort

36.8

40.7

40.8

45.6

45.7

46.7

49.5

52.5

52.6

53.3

55.3

55.4

55.7

59.3

61.6

61.6

65.9

PGCC

CCBC

BCCC

Montgomery

Cecil

Wor-Wic

STATEWIDE

Howard

Hagerstown

AACC

Carroll

Chesapeake

Allegany

Harford

Garrett

CSM

Frederick

Carroll’s graduation-

transfer rate, by the

Maryland Model of

Degree Progress

methodology, was

above the statewide

average.

Annual Credit FTE EnrollmentActual 2015-2017, Projected FY18-FY21

Institutional Research Forecasts 10-01-17

1,6651,708

1,7741,888

2,1342,262

2,376


Anticipate 22% decline FY17—FY21

Reallocated FT position from IR to Marketing: also created two PT

positions (web editor, videographer) through internal reallocation

“Carroll to Careers” Campaign: promoting short-term training

credentials and certificates through associate degrees

Career Coach: Web resource linking career/labor market information

to Carroll credit and CET programs

Program-specific Marketing: Targeted, digital; for individual programs

“Start your Adventure”: Multi-media appeal to high school students

Marketing to Parents: Carroll as the cost-effective college strategy

Customer Relationship Management (CRM) Software: prospect

cultivation tool for tracking and communicating (Fire Engine Red)

Digital road sign: displays full-color marketing images on Route 32

Outreach to PA: Discounted tuition for Littlestown High School grads


Marketing Actions

Planning Parameter:Full-time Faculty Teach ≥ 50% TLH


46.3

43.4

46.9

49.7

47.3

49.9 50.5

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Percent Teaching Load Hours Taught by Full-time Faculty

Percent Goal

Planning Parameter:Average Section Size ≥ 20 Students


19.4 19.217.3 16.9 16.7 17.1

17.6 17.7

0.00.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Average Credit Class Section Size

Average Class Size Goal

SOURCE: EDS; MHEC Data Book 2018

Average Full-time Faculty Salaries, FY2017

56,027

59,375

60,550

60,712

60,902

64,822

66,405

66,481

66,539

66,597

69,236

71,046

72,747

75,013

75,504

85,287

88,880

Allegany

Carroll

Hagerstown

Wor-Wic

Garrett

Cecil

Harford

Chesapeake

STATEWIDE

BCCC

Frederick

PGCC

Howard

AACC

CCBC

CSM

Montgomery

Carroll’s average full-time

faculty salary is 10.8%

below the statewide

median, and is the second-

lowest in Maryland

Employee Departure RateNational Community College Benchmark Project

Employee Separations Not Due to Retirement

4.865.60

6.08 6.226.81

2.71 2.683.40

2.65

6.306.67

8.61

5.235.41

FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

Nationwide Carroll CC

Enrollment vs. Operating Budget

FY2011 - FY2018


15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500

7,500


Total FTE Declined 29% ; Operating Budget Increased 16%

Total FTE Budget ($million)

Increased Expenditures FY2011-FY2017Percent of Increase & Percent Growth of Major Drivers


Percent of Total Increase

Tutors

3%

All other

3%

Renovation

& Equipment

17%

Nursing

Program

11%Salary

Increases

28%

Employee

Health

Care

30%

Software

8%

Percent Increase FY11-FY17

10

50

60

61

61

Salary increases

Employee health care

Tutoring Program

Software

Nursing Program

(Renovations were one-time expenses)

Revenue Sources, FY2011-FY2017Excluding State-paid Benefits


County31%

Other

Total Increase in Cade Funding: $5,292,568

Distribution of Cade Formula Increase, FY2019

$0

$0

$3,421

$50,306

$67,022

$88,130

$156,383

$185,745

$190,713

$236,635

$409,675

$447,243

$996,870

$1,415,266

$1,014,331

Chesapeake

Carroll

AACC

Garrett

Hagerstown

Allegany

Cecil

CCBC

CSM

Wor-Wic

Harford

Frederick

Howard

PGCC

Montgomery

Under the Cade funding

formula, Carroll and

Chesapeake received no

additional funding in

FY2019 due to their

continuing enrollment

declines. State aid

remained unchanged

from FY2018 under the

“Hold Harmless”

provision.

SOURCE: MACC Databook

Local Aid to Community Colleges, FY2017

$598,494

$4,673,000

$6,491,197

$6,702,049

$7,630,550

$9,543,050

$10,003,380

$10,019,006

$12,790,309

$15,561,612

$15,806,893

$18,579,957

$32,240,298

$41,142,392

$44,329,042

$136,004,459

$34,872,800

BCCC

Garrett

Chesapeake

Wor-Wic

Allegany

Hagerstown

Cecil

Carroll

MEDIAN

Harford

Frederick

CSM

Howard

PGCC

AACC

CCBC

Montgomery

Excluding BCCC, the

statewide median was

Harford at $15,561,612.

In FY2017, Carroll

received more local aid

than the other six small

community colleges.

Includes All FTEs, Eligible and Ineligble for State Funding

County Aid per FTE Student, FY2011

1,300

1,825

2,213

2,222

2,232

2,245

2,248

2,404

2,494

2,618

2,715

2,802

3,112

3,422

4,536

4,744

Wor-Wic

CCBC

Chesapeake

PGCC

AACC

Allegany

Hagerstown

Carroll

CSM

Harford

STATEWIDE

Frederick

Howard

Cecil

Montgomery

Garrett

In FY2011 Carroll’s

peak enrollment year,

Carroll County

provided $2,404 per

FTE in aid to Carroll

Community College.

This was 11.4% below

the statewide average,

but was the median

among the 15 colleges

receiving local aid.


County Aid per FTE Student, FY2017

2,558

2,654

2,746

2,844

3,175

3,188

3,245

3,329

3,359

3,573

3,660

3,678

4,011

4,696

5,671

6,888

Wor-Wic

CCBC

Hagerstown

PGCC

Allegany

Harford

STATEWIDE

Chesapeake

CSM

AACC

Frederick

Carroll

Howard

Cecil

Garrett

Montgomery

In FY2017 Carroll

County provided $3,678

per FTE in aid to Carroll

Community College.

This was 13.3% above

the statewide average.

Enrollment decline’s

impact on this ratio

makes it difficult to

argue that County

funding is inadequate.

Tuition and FeesConstrained policy lever

Planning Parameter:Limit Tuition/Fee Increases to ≤ 5% Annually


0.0

2.0

5.95.6

4.4

5.1

6.5

1.5

5.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Annual Percent Increase in Tuition and Fees

Increase Goal

Tuition Rate vs. Tuition & Fee Revenue

FY2011 - FY2017


11.9 12.212.9 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.4

99 101107

113118

124

132

15

35

55

75

95

115

135

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Raised Tuition Rate 33 %; Tuition and Fee Revenue Increased 4 %

Tuition & Fee Revenue Tuition Rate


In-County Tuition and Fees per SCH, FY2018

$122

$125

$131

$133

$133

$137

$141

$146

$146

$151

$154

$154

$157

$159

$162

$163

$166

Cecil

Wor-Wic

Allegany

BCCC

Hagerstown

AACC

Garrett

Frederick

STATEWIDE

Harford

CCBC

CSM

PGCC

Chesapeake

Howard

Carroll

Montgomery

Carroll’s tuition and

fees per credit hour of

$163 was 11.6% above

the average of $146 for

all Maryland community

colleges in FY2018.

Planning Parameter:Limit Tuition/Fee Increases to ≤ 5% Annually


5.6

4.4

5.1

6.5

1.5

5.7

9.6

2.73.3

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Annual Percent Increase in Tuition and Fees

Increase Goal

Planning Parameter:Maintain Fund Balance ≥ 5% Annual Budget


9.59.0

9.7

8.99.4

9.1 9.1

5.7

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Fund Balance as Percent of Annual Operating Budget

Percent Goal

Successful students, outcomes

Declining enrollment thru 2025

Competitive marketplace

Low salaries/hign staff turnover

Minimal new government funds

Tuition rates high & constrained

Fund balance nearing 5% floor

Situation Analysis

Focus on EfficiencyLittle prospect of revenue growth


Expenditures per FTE Student, FY2011

6,399

6,720

6,901

7,027

7,125

7,194

7,381

7,495

7,550

7,913

7,946

8,471

8,738

8,828

8,954

10,034

11,987

Wor-Wic

PGCC

AACC

BCCC

Harford

CCBC

Chesapeake

Carroll

Hagerstown

STATEWIDE

Frederick

CSM

Cecil

Allegany

Howard

Montgomery

Garrett

In it’s peak enrollment

year, FY2011, Carroll’s

expenditures per FTE

was 5.3% below the

statewide average for

all community colleges.


Expenditures per FTE Student, FY2017

7,897

8,358

8,911

9,120

9,692

9,772

9,822

10,349

10,575

10,584

10,818

11,037

11,167

11,175

11,215

13,642

13,755

PGCC

Hagerstown

Harford

Wor-Wic

CCBC

AACC

Frederick

Chesapeake

CSM

STATEWIDE

Howard

BCCC

Cecil

Allegany

Carroll

Garrett

Montgomery

Carroll’s FY2017

expenditures per FTE

was 6.0% above the

statewide average for

all community colleges.

Cost Containment/Reallocation and

Resource Development Strategies

• Closed Mount Airy Allied Health Center (w/FCC&HCC)

• Reduced discretionary, non-salary spending by 14% or

$516,441 between FY2010-FY2017

• Delayed hiring process, kept positions vacant = savings

• Offered scholarship incentives for dually-enrolled

students to continue at CCC after HS graduation

• Introduced credit classes in County high schools

• Implementing intercollegiate athletics ( ↑ FT students)

• Reallocated vacant positions to start new programs

• Launched Major Gifts Campaign ($8 million goal)


FY2017 EnrollmentCredit/Continuing Education & Training


Headcount

CET

61%

Both

2%

Credit

37%

FTE

CET

22%

Credit

78%

FY2017 Tuition and Fee RevenueCredit/Continuing Education & Training


Tuition/Fee Revenue

Credit

86%

CET

14%

Credit programming accounted

for 86 percent of FY17 revenue.

Initial cost efficiency and ROI

analyses focused on credit

programs and courses.

Administrative efficiency study

done in conjunction with

Academic ROI study.

CET study deferred. CET has

always employed an ROI model.

Efficiency StudiesAcademic Portfolio Analysis

Academic Portfolio “Compression”

85% of Majors are in 5 Programs

15% of Majors are in 16 Programs outside of Core Business

All Students, by Major

Others

13%

No major

14%

Teacher

Ed.

5%

Nursing

5%

Arts &

Sciences

46%

General

Studies

10%

Bus.

Admin.

7%

Students with Declared Majors

Teacher

Ed.

5%

All others

15%

Bus.

Admin.

8%

General

Studies

12%

Arts &

Sciences

55%

Nursing

5%

Academic Portfolio “Compression”

84% of FY2017 Graduates in 5 Programs


Five programs accounted for:

73% of all students

85% of all students w/majors

84% of all graduates

Remaining 16 programs only

accounted for 15% of students

with majors and 16% of graduates

Is entire academic portfolio essential

to the college’s mission, meeting

societal needs, and contributing

to college financial health?

FY2017 Graduates

Teacher

Ed.

5%

All others

16%

Bus.

Admin.

9%General

Studies

15%

Arts &

Sciences

41%

Nursing

14%

20 or Fewer Active Majors

Computer-aided Design A.A.S.

Early Childhood Education A.A.S.

Engineering A.S.E.

Music A.F.A.

Office Technology certificate

2014-18 Decline in Majors >35%

Accounting A.A.S.

Computer-aided Design A.A.S.

Computer Graphics A.A.S.

Computer Information Systems A.A.S.

Engineering A.S.E.

Health Information Technology A.A.S.


Calculate cost-per-credit hour

and FTE for each discipline.

Divisional and overhead costs

allocated to disciplines based on

student credit hour levels.

Cost-per-credit hour at the

discipline level used to calculate

program costs based on actual

student credit hour activity for

each discipline within a program.


Includes Faculty Compensation, Direct and Indirect Costs

Discipline Cost per FTE Student, FY2015

2,240

2,512

2,583

3,128

3,189

3,192

4,054

4,065

4,111

4,865

5,154

6,455

6,873

7,834

9,703

10,931

Social Sciences

Math+EGR

English

Business+CIS+IT

Natural Sciences

Humanities

Health+Fitness

Computer Graphics

Music

Art

Academic Services

Education

Speech+Theatre

Phys. Ther. Asst.

EMS

Nursing

Average cost per FTE was

$3,648. Factors influencing

cost per FTE include faculty

status (full-time v. adjunct),

average class size, section

capacities, lab and course

supply costs, faculty rank,

and faculty released time.

Tuition & fee revenues compiled

for enrollments by majors in each

program.

Governmental and other

revenues allocated by student

credit hour activity.

Net revenue per credit hour is

calculated for each program.

Average net revenue/SCH = $15


Academic Portfolio AnalysisNet Revenue per Student Credit Hour


$49 $42 $37 $37 $34 $33 $32 $31 $28

-320.0

-270.0

-220.0

-170.0

-120.0

-70.0

-20.0

30.0

-320

-270

-220

-170

-120

-70

-20

30

Academic Program Net Revenue per Student Credit Hour

Net Revenue/SCH Average

Academic Portfolio AnalysisNet Revenue per Student Credit Hour


$28 $27 $22 $19 $15 $9

-$92

-$129

-$300 -320.0

-270.0

-220.0

-170.0

-120.0

-70.0

-20.0

30.0

-320

-270

-220

-170

-120

-70

-20

30

Academic Program Net Revenue per Student Credit Hour

Net Revenue/SCH Average

Academic Portfolio AnalysisAssessment Criteria

Program Assessment

Criterion

Arts and

Sciences A.A.

Business

Administration

Nursing

RN - A.S.

Mission Essential

Employment Demand

Student Interest/Enrollment Potential

Stakeholder Expectations

Net Financial Impact

Program Strength/Viability

Very Low Low High Very High



Program Assessment

Criterion

Cybersecurity

A.A.S.

Physical

Therapist Asst.

Teaching

A.A.T.

Mission Essential

Employment Demand








Program Assessment

Criterion

Engineering

A.S.E.

Fine Arts

Music A.F.A.

Office Tech.

Certificate

Mission Essential

Employment Demand









What about program quality?

Completion rates?

Transfer success?

Licensure exam performance?

Quality is paramount, and if deficient

must be addressed.

A mission-appropriate program with employment

demand and a positive impact on revenue should be

preserved; investment to ensure quality is essential.

Only three programs did not

positively impact revenue—

Nursing, EMS, and PTA

Societal need and stakeholder

expectations currently outweigh

the negative net revenue impact

No program closures were

recommended at this time


Nursing Program Changes

The program had been enlarged,

using grant funds to add a spring

entering cohort. With grant funds

ending, difficulty securing clinical

spots, less selective admissions,

and negative ROI, the spring

cohort was eliminated, shrinking

the program by 30% and saving

$30K annually.


Decision deferred:

Could the resources devoted to

current programs with below-

average, though positive, ROI be

better applied to other or new

programs with higher actual or

potential ROI?


College’s current enrollment

development strategies include

introducing new programs that

promise to attract new student

populations to campus.

Athletics, Digital Design & Fabrication, Robotics

Must do careful ROI analysis!

Enrollment gains can have

negative revenue implications!

Past example: Nursing!


Efficiency StudiesCourse Management and Scheduling

59% of Sections: Fewer than 20 Students

47% of Sections at

Metrics and Levers

Course section capacities

Discipline and course cost analysis

Average class section size

Strategies

Charge chairs to raise average class size

Cost-based tuition and fee structure

Potential Savings

Consultants stated the college could

capture $500,000 for reallocation by

increasing average class size 20% (to 20)

Course Section Management

Course Sections with < 10 Students

Fall 2014 (N=232 sections)

Focus: Lecture, hybrid, online, 100-level sections

Instructional Method

Music

Lessons

Ensembles

18%

Lec-Comp

Modules

21%

Internship

Practicum

6%

Independent

Self-paced

2%

Lecture

41%

Hybrid

4%Online

8%

Course Level

200

43%

Dev 099

3%

100

54%

Faculty Engagement Essential

• Provide data to inform departmental decision-making

• Link financial analysis to program reviews

• Involve Faculty Chairs throughout the process

• Establish concrete goals for each discipline

• Focus on increasing average class section size

• Balance efforts with student scheduling and program

completion needs

• Recognize and celebrate incremental improvements


Number of Credit Course SectionsFall and Spring Terms, FY2013-FY2017

1,020 987 966 922 909

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Excludes developmental modules, independent study, & music lessons

Number of sections declined 5.9% FY2015—FY2017

Average Credit Class Section Size Fall 2012 – Fall 2017

16.89 16.69 17.08 17.5517.68

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Excludes independent study, music lessons, and similar courses

Average class size increased 3.5% FY2015—FY2017

Credit Adjunct Faculty ExpendituresFall and Spring Terms, FY2013-FY2017


$1,696,169$1,871,456$1,905,344

$2,067,433$1,977,405

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Adjunct faculty salary expenditures decreased by 14.2% FY2015—FY2017

Full-time Faculty Released TimeNon-teaching Equivalent TLH, FY2011-FY2017


209

142177

193166 175

217

162

185151

192

146

186

205


Fall

Spring

327 328

385

312

361

422

371

Since project launch in 2015,

average class size increased

3.5% and adjunct faculty salary

expenditures dropped $281,236


Cost-based Tuition & Fees

Implementation of expanded

individual course fees, or a tiered

tuition fee structure based on

discipline costs (PGCC model)

were not adopted.

Maintained consolidated fee for

simplicity and communications

clarity; raised to 25% in FY19


Efficiency StudiesAdministrative Staffing, Organization

and Business Processes

Enrollment vs. Staffing Levels

FY2011 - FY2018


245

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

285

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500

7,500


Total FTE Declined 29% ; Authorized Positions Increased 7%

Total FTE Positions

19 New Positions, FY2011—FY2015 (No additional positions since FY2015)


Nursing faculty (grant-supported, enabled new Spring cohort) 7

Science faculty (support growth in Nursing program) 2

Sociology faculty (over-reliance on adjuncts) 1

Theater technician (excessive overtime at prior level) 1

Advisors (state-mandated academic planning—SB 740) 2

Financial Aid staff (launched Student Loan Program) 2

Accountant (support Loan program) 1

Student Affairs support position (retention effort) 1

Maintenance support staff 1

Security/Campus Police 1


FTE Employees per 100 FTE Students, FY2017

23.48

17.28

17.18

16.90

16.73

16.17

15.42

13.87

13.29

13.03

12.84

12.71

12.61

11.96

11.73

11.42

12.03

Garrett

Frederick

Cecil

Chesapeake

Allegany

CSM

Carroll

Harford

STATEWIDE

CCBC

Howard

Montgomery

Wor-Wic

BCCC

Hagerstown

AACC

PGCC

Carroll’s employees -to-

student ratio was 8.7%

above the statewide

average, but lower than

four of the six other

colleges in the Small

College Cohort.


Admin-Professional Staff per 100 Students, FY2017

6.98

6.41

5.93

5.80

5.01

4.93

4.61

4.22

4.00

3.99

3.75

3.72

3.56

2.84

2.68

2.67

3.05

Garrett

Chesapeake

Frederick

Harford

CSM

Allegany

BCCC

Carroll

Hagerstown

Cecil

STATEWIDE

PGCC

CCBC

AACC

Wor-Wic

Montgomery

Howard

Carroll’s administrative

and professional staff-

to-student ratio was

12.5% above the

statewide average, and

fell in the middle of the

seven colleges in the

Small College Cohort.


Support Staff per 100 Students, FY2017

10.86

5.09

4.95

4.91

4.58

4.11

3.87

3.80

3.72

3.38

3.52

3.17

3.15

2.63

2.26

1.80

3.04

Garrett

CSM

Frederick

Allegany

Montgomery

Carroll

Chesapeake

Cecil

Wor-Wic

CCBC

STATEWIDE

Howard

BCCC

Hagerstown

Harford

AACC

PGCC

Carroll’s support staff-

to-student ratio was

16.8% above the

statewide average, and

was fifth-highest among

the seven colleges in

the Small College

Cohort.

SOURCE: IPEDS Delta Cost Project, Public 2-yr

Part-time “Temporary” Hourly Staff

FY2011 - FY2017


20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

-150,000

50,000

250,000

450,000

650,000

850,000

1,050,000

1,250,000

FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Total Hours Increased 53%; Total Expenditure Increased 84%

Total Pay Hours

Part-time Academic Tutors

FY2011 - FY2017


1000

6000

11000

16000

21000

-150,000

50,000

250,000

450,000

650,000

850,000

1,050,000

1,250,000

FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Tutoring Expense Peaked in FY2016 at $216,478

Total Pay Hours

Administrative Efficiency Findings

• Administrative-professional staffing within national and

state benchmarks for college’s Carroll’s size

• With freeze on FT hiring, PT “temporary” staff shot up

• Inefficient IT support dispersed over 3 administrative units

• Excessive manual processing and paper forms

• Excessive approval levels for expense authorization

• High ratio of hourly support staff and employee interviews

suggested the college was not realizing full benefits of

existing technologies on campus

• Health insurance benefit costs for active and retired

employees primary driver of increasing expenditures


Administrative Efficiency Actions

• Enhancing strategy to maximize benefits of technology

across campus, within resource constraints

• Moved Learning Technology staff under IT tech support

• Streamlining/automating HR and purchasing processes

• Eliminated print versions of college catalog, credit class

schedule, college newsletter

• Reallocated non-faculty positions to create new academic

program faculty positions

• Completed financial contingency exercise

• Changed health insurance provider and plans

• Revised post-retirement health benefit plans


Anticipated Savings from Changing

Employee Health Plan, FY17 - FY20


3,888,952

4,212,467

4,599,1714,553,180

4,962,966

4,465,2153,669,264

5,004,832

5,455,2675,946,241

4,591,589


Proposed Plan Current Plan

Economic Impact AnalysisGovernmental Relations

Economic Impact and

Investment Analysis

Economic Impact

Employee spending in Carroll County

College spending on goods and services

Spending of students in Carroll County

Carroll alumni remaining in Carroll County

Investment Analysis

Lifetime earnings return to students

Return to taxpayers in tax receipts and

increased business output

Savings to taxpayers from reduced demand

for government services85

Economic Impact on Carroll CountyOperational, Employee, and Student Spending

EMSI Economic Impact and Investment Study

Economic Impact

in $ millions

3.2

29.

9

FY2015-16

Studentspending

Operationalspending

29.9

In FY2015-16 the college employed

661 full-time and part-time employees.

68% lived in Carroll County

Total payroll was $28.6 million.

The college spent $9.2 million on goods

and services for day-to-day operations.

Net operational spending from payroll,

employee and college spending, less

County and State funding contributions,

was $29.9 million in 2015-16.

Economic Impact on Carroll CountyOperational and Alumni Impact


Economic Impact

in $ millions

74.3

29.

9

FY2015-16

AlumniImpact

Studentspending

Operationalspending

29.9

Thousands of former students of Carroll

Community College are employed in

Carroll County, earning higher wages

due to their education and increasing

the output of County businesses.

These alumni and their employers spend

money in Carroll County, supporting

other businesses in the County.

The total impact of Carroll alumni on

Carroll County income in 2015-16 was

$ 74.3 million.

Economic Impact on Carroll CountyTotal Operational and Alumni Impact in 2015-16


The college’s total impact on the Carroll

County economy in FY2015-16 from all

sources was $107.5 million.

This was 1.8% of the County’s gross

regional product, larger than the entire

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry.

The $107.5 million in added income to

Carroll County supported 2,279 jobs.

The top three industries in Carroll County

supported by the college were Health Care,

Manufacturing, and Professional Services.

Economic Impact on

Carroll County

Alumni

69%

Students

2%

Operations

28%

$107.5 million

Investment Analysis: StudentsReturn on Investment to Students in 2015-16


Students pay for tuition and fees, books,

supplies, and other expenses to attend

college. In 2015-16, this = $13.3 million.

They also gave up $45.7 million in lost

wages by not working to attend college.

Their total investment was $59.0 million.

Because of their Carroll education, they will

earn higher incomes throughout their

working lives. The present value of their

higher future earnings is $125.9 million.

For every $1 students invested, they

receive $2.10 in future earnings.

Student Investment and

Return in $ millions

59.0

125.9

Annual ROI = 11.0%

Invested

Return

Investment Analysis: TaxpayersReturn on Investment to Taxpayers in 2015-16


Because of their Carroll educations,

students will earn higher incomes during

their working lives and pay more taxes.

Their employers will be more productive

because of their contributions and also

pay more taxes and purchase more goods.

The present value of these additional taxes

collected by government was $31.4 million.

Higher education is correlated with

improved health, less crime, and reduced

unemployment, saving $3.4 million. The

total return to taxpayers = $34.9 million.

For every $1 taxpayers invested in Carroll,

they receive $1.90 in return.

Taxpayer Investment

and Return in $ millions

34.9

Annual ROI = 7.1%

Invested

Return

18.2

Savings can be meaningful

Communication is essential

Consider use of outside consultants

for expertise and change management

Do administrative efficiency review

simultaneously (fairness + savings)

Make results/benefits visible to all

Do economic impact ROI analysis for

governmental and donor relations

Takeaways

Implementing ROI Analysis to

Address Enrollment Decline

Craig A. Clagett

[email protected]

implementing roi analysis to address enrollment declinemdair.org/resources/documents/session 4_craig...

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