Implications for food security

Presented by Johann Bell

This presentation is based on Chapter 12 ‘Implications of climate change for contributions by fisheries and aquaculture to Pacific Island economies and communities’ in the book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011.

The authors of Chapter 12 are: Johann D Bell, Chris Reid, Michael J Batty, Edward H Allison, Patrick Lehodey, Len Rodwell, Timothy D Pickering, Robert Gillett, Johanna E Johnson, Alistair J Hobday and Andreas Demmke

Authors

Outline

• Importance of coastal fisheries for food security• Factors affecting availability of fish for food

Differences in reef area among countries and territories Population growth!

• Projected changes in coastal fisheries• Implications for food security

Relative importance of population growth and climate change

How much fish do we eat?

%

11

%

%

%

11 % %

%

%

Examples onlyRange x-y%

90

150

98

50

>150

61

115 62

43

25 21

55

3375

Source: Bell et al. (2009), Gillett (2009)

• Fish consumption in rural areas (kg/person/year)

77

10

Fish needed for good nutrition

• Ideal: 50% of protein derived from fish

• = 35 kg/person/year

Basic protein requirement is 0.7 g/kg body weight/day (WHO)

Plans to use fish for food security

• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year

• Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg

Where does most fish come from?

• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs, mangroves and sea grasses

Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay

The problem!

Sustainable catches from most reefs are unknown

Solution: use median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2 per year

Factors affecting availability of fish

Group 2

Group 3

Group 1 Large area of reef per person

Group 2 Large area of reef per person but remote

Group 3 Small area of reef per person

• Coral reef area – three groups of PICTs

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group PICTAverage reef

area per person 2010 (m2)

1Cook Islands, Marshall Islands, New Caledonia, Palau, Pitcairn Islands and Tokelau

230,000

2FSM, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Niue, Tonga, Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna

90,000

3American Samoa, Fiji, Guam, Nauru, CNMI, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu

6500

Factors affecting availability of fish

Factors affecting availability of fish

Year Population

2012 10

2035 15

2050 18

2100 27?

(million)

Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme

• Population growth

Effects of population growth on availability of fish per person

2822

14

713

21

0

10

20

30

40

50Solomon Islands

35 kg

Year

2035 2050 2100

35 3226

39

0

10

20

30

40

50Fiji

35 kg

Year

2035 2050 2100

2035 (-2 to -5%)

2050 (-20%) 2100 (-20 to -50%)

Today

Effects of climate change

Effects of climate change

ResourceWest East

2035 2050 2100 2035 2050 2100

Demersal fisheries (50-60%)

Negligible Negligible

Nearshore pelagics (~30%)

Negligible

Group 1

Effects of population growth AND climate change

PICTFish available per person per year (kg)*

2035 2050 2100Cook Islands 115 101 92Marshall Islands 644 556 484New Caledonia 326 268 215Palau 320 283 250Tokelau 495 451 388*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario

No implications!

Group 2• Effects of population growth AND climate change Some implications

*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario

PICTFish available per person per year

(kg)*2035 2050 2100

FSM 418 352 307French Polynesia 131 109 85

Kiribati 86 65 42

Niue 125 114 104Tonga 145 116 81Tuvalu 711 570 362Wallis & Futuna 197 171 145

Group 3 • Severe implications due to population growth alone!

PICTFish available per person per year (kg)

2035 2050 2100

American Samoa 13 11 8Fiji 35 32 26Guam 3 3 2Nauru 1 1 1PNG 8 6 4CNMI 10 9 9Samoa 30 29 25Solomon Islands 28 23 14Vanuatu 10 8 6*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario

Additional effects of climate change

28 2822 19

14 11

7 713 16

21 24

0

10

20

30

40

50Solomon Islands

35 kg

Year

2035 2050 2100

35 34 3228 26

20

37 9

15

0

10

20

30

40

50Fiji

35 kg

Year

2035 2050 2100

Effects of population growth Additional effects of climate change

Group 3 • Gap to be filled

PICTGap in fish needed per person per year (kg)

2035 2050 2100Popn CC Popn CC Popn CC

American Samoa 22 23 24 26 27 29Fiji 0 1 3 7 9 15Guam 32 32 32 33 33 33PNG 27 27 29 29 31 32Nauru 34 34 34 34 34 34CNMI 25 25 26 27 26 29Samoa 5 6 6 11 10 16Solomon Islands 7 7 13 16 21 24Vanuatu 26 26 28 29 31 32*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario

Group 3 - How best to fill the gap?

Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna (and bycatch)

Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)

43%

63%

79%

10%

12%

12%

11%

6%

36%

20%

6%

0 10 20 30 40 50

Fiji2035 (34,216 t)

2050 (37,125 t)

2100 (46,608 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

43%

59%

70%

11%

6%

45%

35%

27%

0 2 4 6 8 10

Samoa2035 (7070 t)

2050 (7341 t)

2100 (8405 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

16%

25%

32%

83%

74%

67%

0 1 2 3 4 5

American Samoa2035 (3056 t)

2050 (3439 t)

2100 (4741 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

16%

29%

40%

7%

11%

13%

9% 68%

55%

44%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Papua New Guinea2035 (140,690 t)

2050 (172,524 t)

2100 (274,625 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

16%

29%

40%

7%

11%

13%

9% 68%

55%

44%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Papua New Guinea2035 (140,690 t)

2050 (172,524 t)

2100 (274,625 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

16%

29%

40%

7%

11%

13%

9% 68%

55%

44%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Papua New Guinea2035 (140,690 t)

2050 (172,524 t)

2100 (274,625 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

8%

15%

22%

11%

6

80%

78%

75%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Vanuatu2035 (14,844 t)

2050 (18,534 t)

2100 (31,289 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

16%

20%

24%

83%

79%

75%

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

CNMI2035 (2667 t)

2050 (2805 t)

2100 (3046 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

98%

97%

96%

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Nauru2035 (504 t)

2050 (570 t)

2100 (730 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

3%

4%

5%

96%

95%

94%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Guam2035 (8764 t)

2050 (9374 t)

2100 (10,355 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

16%

29%

40%

7%

11%

13%

9% 68%

55%

44%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Papua New Guinea2035 (140,690 t)

2050 (172,524 t)

2100 (274,625 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

16%

29%

40%

7%

11%

13%

9% 68%

55%

44%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Papua New Guinea2035 (140,690 t)

2050 (172,524 t)

2100 (274,625 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

74%

77%

78%

Conclusions

• PICTs in Groups 1 and 2 have sufficient coral reef per person to provide fish for food security well into the future

• Shortages of fish may occur near major towns due to distribution problems

Conclusions

• Population growth in PICTs in Group 3 will have a much stronger effect on availability of fish than climate change

• Shortages of reef (demersal) fish will occur in all these PICTs

• Most of the gap will need to be filled by tuna

Conclusions• Practical adaptations and policies are

needed to minimise and fill the gapQ

uanti

ty o

f fish

/hab

itat

Qua

ntity

of fi

sh/h

abita

t

Time

Well-managed fisheries

Fish needed by growing population

Fish needed by growing population

Fish available from coastal stocks

Fish available from coastal stocks

Poorly-managed fisheries

Gap in supply of fish to be filled

Time

Fish available from stocks

Fish available from stocks

Fish habitat

Fish habitat

a)

b)