implications of the debate over border violence...
TRANSCRIPT
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Implications of the Debate over Border Violence SpilloverSylvia Longmire
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OverviewCurrent situation in MexicoChallenges to defining border violence spilloverCrime statistics vs. anecdotal evidenceProblems arising from “definition disconnect”Some solutions for spillover prevention strategy
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The War Inside MexicoMexico is in the midst of a crisis of drug-related violence
46,000+ killed since President Felipe Calderón came into office in December 2006
Five major transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) and dozens of smaller groups fighting for control
Fighting with each other over drug smuggling corridorsFighting with the police and army for autonomy
Areas in Mexico being affected for specific reasonsBorder crossings and drug transshipment points
TCOs increasingly using terrorist TTPs
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Current Narco “Hot Spots”Ciudad Júarez
A murder free-for-all between TCOs and gangsMonterrey/Saltillo
A crucial drug transshipment pointAcapulco
Port city that receives precursor chemicals for methNuevo Laredo to Matamoros (northern Tamaulipas)
Primary battleground for CDG vs. Los ZetasDurangoCuliacán
Second only to Juárez in number of homicides
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Characteristics of ViolenceViolence against government forces
Assaults/ambushes of military convoysAssassinations of policeKidnapping of political figures
Violence between TCOsBeheadings and dismemberments with messages commonTargeting used to be specific; expertise has degenerated
Violence against the general publicNarcomantas inject a psychological factorGrenade attacks in public areasKidnapping and murders of migrants
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TCO Techniques and TacticsUse of pistols, assault weapons and sniper rifles
Favorites include AK-47s, AR-15s, .50-caliber Barrett, FiveSeven® pistols, 9mm pistols
Use of hand grenades and crude explosivesAttacks in public spaces, against newspapers, police stationsDifference between “car bomb” and “bomb in a car”
Beheadings and dismembermentsA way of “keeping up with the Joneses”Intimidation tool, way to send messages
KidnappingsExtortion
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Narcos Moving NorthNDIC 2011: Mexican TCOs have a presence in more than 1,000 cities across the United States
Responsible for 90% of drugs consumed by AmericansAnywhere there’s a demand, there’s a TCO influence
TCOs rely heavily on US-based gangsGangs in border states carry out assassinationsGangs across the US help with drug distribution
TCOs in the US operate in terrorist-like cell structures
Helps insulate them from law enforcementMakes investigation and prosecution extremely difficult
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“Define border violence spillover”
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“Is spillover happening?”
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Defining Border Violence Spillover
According to DHS:
“[S]pillover violence entails deliberate, planned attacks by the cartels on U.S. assets, including civilian, military, or law enforcement officials, innocent U.S. citizens, or physical institutions such as government buildings, consulates, or businesses. This definition does not include trafficker on trafficker violence, whether perpetrated in Mexico or the U.S.”
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Defining Border Violence Spillover
According to the State of Texas:
“Mexican cartel related violence that occurs in Texas. We include aggravated assault, extortion, kidnapping, torture, rape, and murder.”
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Defining Border Violence Spillover
According to the Southwest Border Task Force:
“Any act of violence motivated by drugs, human smuggling or money that takes place within 25 miles of the U.S.- Mexico border — and can be linked to crime across the border.”
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Defining Border Violence SpilloverThere is no standardized, universally accepted definitionSome definitions take into account criminal-on-criminal activity, some don’t
This is the very nature of violence going on in MexicoRight now, any agency or state/local government can define spillover however they want
This helps shape their policies and resource allocation, for better or worse
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The StatisticsFeb 2011: DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano says crime along the southwest border is down 30%
Nov 2010: El Paso is ranked the safest city in the US by CQ Press
2005-2010: Overall crime rates in San Diego have either stayed flat or decreased by as much as 25%
2006-2009: Violent crime rates in AZ dropped 15%
1998-2008: Violent crime and property crime rates in CA, NM, and TX had an overall drop
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The StatisticsCrime statistics for these statements and reports are usually pulled from the FBI’s UCR database
With all the filters and options available, it’s hard to know how agencies came up with their statistics
Examining the data in different ways can produce dramatically different results
UCR database does not include information on possible TCO affiliation by offenders
DHS: “[We] don’t have exact stats on violence between cartel members [in the US].”
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The StatisticsCrime statistics only include data for crimes that are actually reported to the police
By its very nature, drug-related violence is almost always committed by criminals against criminals
Increasingly, crimes are being committed along the border by criminals against illegal immigrants
Neither criminals nor illegal immigrants are interested in reporting crimes to the police
The real amount of activity that could be classified as spillover isn’t being captured by crime statistics
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The Stories
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Phoenix, Arizona – June 2008
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Shelby County, AL – August 2008
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Las Vegas, Nevada – October 2008
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Pharr, Texas – January 2009
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San Diego, California – May 2009
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Douglas, Arizona – March 2010
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Chandler, Arizona – October 2010
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Rio Rico, Arizona – December 2010
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McAllen, Texas – September 2011
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Edinburg, Texas – October 2011
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The StoriesThese crimes are captured in statistics, but make more of an impact when they hit the media
News outlet portrayal can make the security situation in some areas seem worse than it is
The kidnapping situation in Phoenix scared away some potential tourists due to media coverage
Incidents like these are scattered, and not happening on a daily basis, compared to Mexico
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“Definition Disconnect”
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“Definition Disconnect”Today, spillover is in the eye of the beholder
Federal officials say the southwest border has never been more secureSome state and local officials say just the opposite
Who can/should the American people believe?Our federal government?Their law enforcement and elected officials?Media reports?
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“Definition Disconnect”Lack of a universal definition is leading to major conflicts between federal and local agencies
Feb 2011: Mayors of Nogales, San Luís, and Douglas, AZ sent Babeu a letter asking him to “tone it down”Some officials taking advantage of the conflict to attract the media spotlight
Americans along the border getting mixed messagesRanchers feel unprotected, unheard, unimportantPotential tourists are irrationally afraid
Ultimately, border security policy is at a stalemate
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Ways to a Better Prevention StrategyTALK, people!
DHS needs to convene a meeting or conference involving ALL the border playersVarious perspectives need to be heard: politicians, law enforcement, businesses, feds/state/local, etc.
Give the states more input into how border security policies are crafted to fit their unique needs
What works for El Paso may not work for DouglasOfficials with a public forum need to be careful of how they portray the border security situation
Political aspirations need to come second
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Ways to a Better Prevention StrategyFederal officials visiting the border need to do so without the cameras and public relations shtick
They need prepare to hear things they don’t want to hearAgencies at all levels need to reach out to social services that work with illegal immigrants, drug users
One way to determine what kinds of crimes, and how many, are being committed against them
Increase the cultivation of human sourcesHelps evaluate nature of unreported criminal activity in border communities
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ConclusionsWe know TCO members are here in the US, and are here to stay for the foreseeable futureWe know they’re engaged in drug trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, murder, etc. on US soil
Exactly to what extent, we may never knowWe’re not soon going to see Juárez-style shootouts in downtown El Paso, San Diego, Phoenix, or Houston
It’ll always be safe to take your kids to school, go to the supermarket, vote on Election Day, etc.
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ConclusionsDrug-related violence in Mexico is escalating
We’re not seeing related spikes in violence hereOccurrence of isolated incidents may be increasing
Federal/state/local agencies need to TALK in order to wrap their heads around what spillover means
“I’ll know it when I see it” is unacceptable definitionUntil everyone is working off the same sheet of music, governments can’t develop effective border security and spillover prevention strategies
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Questions?Sylvia Longmire
Owner, Longmire Consultinghttp://www.longmireconsulting.com