improved heavy-duty vehicle fuel efficiency in india ... · • focus on diesel-powered trucks and...

Improved Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency in India: Benefits, Costs and CO2 Impacts

Dr. Anand Gopal and Dr. Nihan Karali

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Dr. Ben Sharpe, Dr. Oscar Delgado, Dr. AnupBandivadekar, and Mehul Garg

The International Council on Clean Transportation

This work was jointly supported by the Assistant Secretary, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy and by the Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, U.S. Department of State under Contract No.

DE-AC02-05CH11231 to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Project scope of work

2

• Baseline technology characterization• Fuel consumption reduction potential• Per-vehicle technology costs

• HDV stock turnover model• Total fleet fuel consumption impacts• Total fleet cost impacts

Fuel consumption reduction potential and cost-benefit impacts of various technology deployment

scenarios

• Vehicles included in the analysis: HDVs > 12 tonnes• Focus on diesel-powered trucks and buses• Fuel efficiency technologies that can be commercialized over the next 10 years• Time horizon: 2000 – 2050 (model calibrated against historical data for 2000-2014)

Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency in India

HDVs in India consume larger share of on-road fuel than in other major markets

3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

US EU China Brazil India

Share of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in 2015

Trucks Buses 2,3-wheelers Passenger cars

http://www.theicct.org/global-transportation-roadmap-model

HDVs: nearly 70% of fuel use and CO2


4

HDV characteristics differ across regions

Brazil China EU India US

6x2 6x4 4x2 4x2 6x4

9.7t 10t 7t 6t 8t

35t 33t 40t 40t 36t

Manual Manual 12-speed AMT 6-speed manual 10-speed manual

13 liter < 11 liter 13 liter < 6 liter 15 liter

~ 325kW ~ 260kW ~ 325kW ~ 135kW ~ 340kW

Proconve 7 China IV Euro VI Bharat III US EPA 2010

Axle config.

Tractor weight

GVW

Transm.

Enginedispl.

Enginepower

Emissionlevel


HDV engine size and power are much smaller in India than other major markets

5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

< 9 9 to 11 11 to 13 13 to 15 > 15

Pe

rce

nt

of

sa

les

Engine size (liters)

China

EU

US

India

http://www.theicct.org/market-analysis-heavy-duty-vehicles-india


http://www.theicct.org/market-analysis-heavy-duty-vehicles-india

Average speeds are much lower in India than other major markets

6

* Average speed from surveys of 28 major trucking routes in IndiaSource: TCI-IIMC (2016) Operational efficiency of freight transportation by road in India. 3rd edition.

http://www.tcil.com/tcil/study_report.html

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ave

rag

e s

pe

ed

(k

m/h

ou

r)

Regulatory cycles Real-world data


http://www.tcil.com/tcil/study_report.html

7

Together, engines and tires represent 80% or more of energy losses for Indian HDVs

60% 59% 58%62% 59%

8%7%

15%4%

20%

16%16%

15%

19%

14%12% 14%

6% 11%3%

4% 3% 3% 4% 4%1% 1% 2% 1% 0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Brazil China EU India US

En

erg

y d

istr

ibu

tio

n

Accessories

Transmission and axles

Braking

Tires

Aerodynamic

Engine

http://www.theicct.org/estimating-fe-tech-potential-hdvs-gfei-wp14

Tractor-trailers operating with regionally-specific drive cycles and payloads.


http://www.theicct.org/estimating-fe-tech-potential-hdvs-gfei-wp14

8

Areas for on-vehicle efficiency improvements

Truck and trailer aerodynamics

Rolling

resistance

Transmission

and axlesAuxiliary

loads

Engine

efficiency

Driver behavior

and telematics*

Reducing vehicle

empty weight

* Not investigated as part of this analysis


9

Summary of methodology

1 Price Model

Incremental retail

price of technology

packages

2 Autonomie

Model

Fuel efficiency

improvements

3 BCA Model

- NPV per vehicle

- Payback period

per vehicle

4 Fleet Model

- Fuel savings

- CO2 emissions

reduction

- Fleet level NPV


Summary of analysis

• Identified HDV baseline and efficiency improving technologies that can be commercial in India within 10 years for 3 vehicle categories over 12 tonnes in GVW

• Full vehicle simulations to estimate fuel efficiency of baseline and technology packages

• Incremental retail price of vehicles fitted with each technology package

• Economic analysis of HDV technology packages – payback period and NPV

• Crude oil, diesel, CO2 implications at the fleet level out to 2050

• Fleet level economic benefits

10Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency in India

11

Per-vehicle fuel efficiency potential and costs: methodology and results

12

Our analysis to determine fuel-saving technology potential uses simulation modeling

Tractor-trailer Rigid truck Transit bus

http://www.autonomie.net


http://www.autonomie.net/

13

WHVC-India cycle created to better represent HDV driving in India

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Ve

hic

le s

pe

ed

(k

m/h

r)

Time (seconds)

WHVC WHVC-India

Urban Rural Motorway

10%

40%

85%

10%

30%

15%

80%

30%

0%

Weighting factors for each ‘mini

cycle’


Engine and tire rolling resistance losses dominate in cycles with low average speeds

14

Energy balance for a tractor-trailer over the WHVC-India cycle and 27,200 kg payload

Source: Sharpe and Delgado (2016)http://www.theicct.org/engine-and-tire-tech-hdvs-india-201602

Horn Please!

Aerodynamics:2%

Engine:62%

Rolling resistance:19%

Transmission and axles:

3%Accessories:

3% Braking:11%

Engine

Aero

Tires

Driveline

BrakingAccessories


http://www.theicct.org/engine-and-tire-tech-hdvs-india-201602

Choosing technology packages

• Baseline and efficient technologies determined based on our expert understanding of global markets and discussions with Indian industry and government

• Commercial in India within 10 years

Most technologies we chose will be feasible much sooner

• We know India is different

Price sensitive market

Much smaller capacity engines

15Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency in India

16

Technology packages (TPs): tractor-trailer

BS

IV (

EGR

)

Man

ual

6-s

pee

d

AM

T 8

-sp

eed

Ad

van

ced

AM

T

Bia

s

Rad

ial

Ad

van

ced

LR

R

10

% r

ed. I

n C

d

1%

WR

2.5

% W

R

5%

WR

No

wei

ght

red

. (W

R)

Imp

rove

d A

MT

Baseline

TP1

TP2

TP3

TP4

TP5

TP6

TP7

Engine Transmission Tires Aerodynamics Weight reduction

10

% m

ore

eff

icie

nt

12

.5%

mo

re e

ffic

ien

t

15

% m

ore

eff

icie

nt

Low

ro

llin

g re

sist

ance

(LR

R)

5%

mo

re e

ffic

ien

t (B

S V

I)

20

% r

ed. I

n C

d

30

% r

ed. I

n C

d

No

aer

o d

rag

(Cd

) re

d.

Increasingly efficient technologies, moving left to right


17

Technology packages (TPs): rigid truck

BS

IV (

EGR

)

Man

ual

6-s

pee

d

AM

T 8

-sp

eed

Hyb

rid

-ele

ctri

c

Bia

s

Rad

ial

Ad

van

ced

LR

R

10

% r

ed. I

n C

d

1%

WR

2.5

% W

R

5%

WR

No

wei

ght

red

. (W

R)

Imp

rove

d A

MT

Baseline

TP1

TP2

TP3

TP4

TP5

TP6

TP7

Engine Transmission Tires Aerodynamics Weight reduction

10

% m

ore

eff

icie

nt

12

.5%

mo

re e

ffic

ien

t

15

% m

ore

eff

icie

nt

Low

ro

llin

g re

sist

ance

(LR

R)

5%

mo

re e

ffic

ien

t (B

S V

I)

20

% r

ed. I

n C

d

No

aer

o d

rag

(Cd

) re

d.



18

Technology packages (TPs): transit bus

BS

IV (

EGR

)

Man

ual

6-s

pee

d

AM

T 8

-sp

eed

Hyb

rid

-ele

ctri

c

Bia

s

Rad

ial

Ad

van

ced

LR

R

1%

WR

2.5

% W

R

5%

WR

No

wei

ght

red

. (W

R)

Imp

rove

d A

MT

Baseline

TP1

TP2

TP3

TP4

TP5

TP6

TP7

Engine Transmission Tires Weight reduction

10

% m

ore

eff

icie

nt

12

.5%

mo

re e

ffic

ien

t

15

% m

ore

eff

icie

nt

Low

ro

llin

g re

sist

ance

(LR

R)

5%

mo

re e

ffic

ien

t (B

S V

I)


7.5

% W

R

We assume no aerodynamic

improvements for the transit bus

Aerodynamics


19

Engine, transmission, and tire technologies represent the large majority of total fuel savings


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 4 5 6 71 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2

Technology package number

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Fu

el c

on

su

mp

tio

n r

ed

uc

tio

n

Weight reduction

Aerodynamics

Tires

Trans. and axles

Engine


20

Cost breakdown for each technology package

₹0

₹5

₹10

₹15

₹20

₹25

₹30

₹35

₹40

₹45

₹50

Co

sts

, in

clu

din

g t

ax

es

an

d m

ark

up

(R

s in

La

kh

) Weight reduction

Aerodynamics

Tires

Trans. and axles

Engine


1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Technology package number

Hybridsystem

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7


21

Incremental retail price versus fuel consumption reduction

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Inc

rem

en

tal re

tail

pri

ce

(%

)

Reduction in fuel consumption versus the Baseline

Tractor-trailer

Rigid truck

Transit bus

Note: Incremental retail price includes manufacturing cost, tax, and markup.


22

Economic, oil, and greenhouse gas impacts: methodology and results


23

Payback period is within 2 years for nearly all of the technology packages

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 TP5 TP6 TP7

Fu

el c

on

su

mp

tio

n r

ed

uc

tio

n (

%)

Pa

yb

ac

k (

ye

ars

)


Transit bus with incentives


24

Assuming a 5-year loan, payback time is even more attractive

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Fu

el e

ffic

ien

cy i

mp

rove

me

nt

(%)

Pa

yb

ac

k (

ye

ars

)



25

Cumulative benefit for tractor-trailer with TP1, assuming one-time upfront payment

₹0

₹10

₹20

₹30

₹40

₹50

₹60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Cu

mu

lati

ve

be

ne

fit

(Rs

in

La

kh

)

Year

Discount rate: 7.75%

Investment pays back in less than 1 year


26

Cumulative benefit for tractor-trailer with TP7, assuming one-time upfront payment

-₹20

-₹10

₹0

₹10

₹20

₹30

₹40

₹50

₹60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Cu

mu

lati

ve

be

ne

fit

(Rs

in

La

kh

) Discount rate: 7.75%

Investment pays back within 2 years


27

Cumulative benefit for rigid truck with TP2, assuming one-time upfront payment

₹0

₹5

₹10

₹15

₹20

₹25

₹30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Cu

mu

lati

ve

be

ne

fit

(Rs

in

La

kh

)

Year




28

Cumulative benefit for rigid truck with TP6, assuming one-time upfront payment

-₹10

-₹5

₹0

₹5

₹10

₹15

₹20

₹25

₹30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Cu

mu

lati

ve

be

ne

fit

(Rs

in

La

kh

)




29

Cumulative benefit for transit bus with TP2, assuming one-time upfront payment

₹0

₹5

₹10

₹15

₹20

₹25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Cu

mu

lati

ve

be

ne

fit

(Rs

in

La

kh

)

Year




30

Cumulative benefit for transit bus with TP6, assuming one-time upfront payment

-₹10

-₹5

₹0

₹5

₹10

₹15

₹20

₹25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Cu

mu

lati

ve

be

ne

fit

(Rs

in

La

kh

)




31

Net present value (NPV), assuming one-time upfront payment

₹-

₹10

₹20

₹30

₹40

₹50

₹60


NP

V (

Rs

in

la

kh

)



32

Net present value (NPV), assuming 5-year loan

₹-

₹10

₹20

₹30

₹40

₹50

₹60


NP

V (

Rs

in

la

kh

)



HDV stock growth model results

33

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

An

nu

al

GD

P (

bil

lio

n U

SD

, 2

00

5$

)

HD

V (

> 1

2t)

sto

ck

(m

illi

on

ve

hic

les

)

Tractor-trailer Rigid truck Transit bus GDP


Note: GDP growth is based on the World Bank forecasts.

Penetration of technology packages

34

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sh

are

in

to

tal H

DV

(>

12

t)s

toc

k

Rigid trucks with technology packages

Conventional rigid trucks

Transit buses with technology packages

Tractor-trailers with technology packages

Baseline HDV diesel consumption

35

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 BAU 2030 BAU 2040 BAU 2050 BAU

HD

V (

> 1

2t)

die

se

l c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MT

OE

)


36

Technology packages provide substantial diesel and CO2 savings

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(M

MT

)

HD

V (

> 1

2t)

die

se

l c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MT

OE

)

TP1

TP2

TP3

TP4

TP5

TP6

TP7

Savings in

packages


37

HDV fleet diesel consumption in 2030

-5.1 -0.5 -2.7 -0.2 -1.1 -1.2

-6.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


HD

V (

> 1

2t)

die

se

l c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MT

OE

)

2030 B

aselin

e

2015

Total Savings

TP1 = 5.1

TP2 = 5.6

TP3 = 8.3

TP4 = 8.5

TP5 = 9.6

TP6 = 10.8

TP7 = 16.8


38

HDV fleet diesel consumption in 2050

-14.7 -1.4

-7.8 -0.5 -3.2-3.4

-17.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


HD

V (

> 1

2t)

die

sel co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

MT

OE

)

2050 B

aselin

e

2015

Total Savings

TP1 = 14.7

TP2 = 16.1

TP3 = 23.9

TP4 = 24.4

TP5 = 27.6

TP6 = 31.0

TP7 = 48.0


39

Total national diesel and oil consumption

Source: India Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency. 2015

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/IndiaEnergyOutlook_WEO2015.pdf

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2015 2030 IEA 2040 IEA

Cru

de

oil

co

ns

um

pti

on

(mil

lio

n b

arr

els

)

Die

se

l c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

MT

OE

)


https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/IndiaEnergyOutlook_WEO2015.pdf

40

2030 HDV diesel savings relative to total Indian consumption; more savings needed

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2015 2030 IEA 2030PACKAGES

Ind

ia d

ies

el c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

Mto

e)


-4.7%

-0.9%

-0.9%-0.2%

-2.1%

-0.4%

-4.0%

Savings in

technology

packages

Total Savings

TP1 = 4.0%

TP2 = 4.4%

TP3 = 6.5%

TP4 = 6.7%

TP5 = 7.6%

TP6 = 8.5%

TP7 = 13.4%

Baselin

e


41

CO2 emissions savings

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CO

2e

mis

sio

ns

(M

MT

)

TP1

TP2

TP3

TP4

TP5

TP6

TP7

Baseline

TP7


42

Total fleet NPV for tractor-trailer fleet

₹0

₹100,000

₹200,000

₹300,000

₹400,000

₹500,000

₹600,000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

NP

V (

Rs

in

La

kh

)

TP1

TP7


43

Total fleet NPV for rigid truck fleet

₹0

₹200,000

₹400,000

₹600,000

₹800,000

₹1,000,000

₹1,200,000

₹1,400,000

₹1,600,000

₹1,800,000

₹2,000,000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

NP

V (

Rs i

n L

akh

)

TP2

TP6


44

Total fleet NPV for transit bus fleet

₹0

₹50,000

₹100,000

₹150,000

₹200,000

₹250,000

₹300,000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

NP

V (

Rs

in

La

kh

)

TP2

TP6


45

Download Full Report here: http://eetd.lbl.gov/node/62069

Nihan Karali: [email protected]

Anand Gopal: [email protected]

Ben Sharpe: [email protected]

Anup Bandivadekar: [email protected]

More info

mailto:[email protected]




improved heavy-duty vehicle fuel efficiency in india ... · • focus on diesel-powered trucks and...

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