improvement of the road section of gerede - gürbulak border gate and impacts evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993

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Improvement of the road section of

Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation


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Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation


Project Description Required works to be done under this project:

Preparation of design and safety projects of all applications Determination of project consultant Guardrail installation (totally 250 km) Pedestrian overpass/underpasses installation (totally 10 locations) Installation of signalisations on existing junctions (totally 12 location ) Implementation of new interchange (junctions) (totally 2 locations) Existing junctions improvement (totally 5 locations) Select the appropriate impact measures Select the appropriate analysis method Evaluating economic impacts of the project.

Estimated investment cost 52 Million € 3



This project route• is part of future TEN-T Road Network for Turkey and priority project route in TINA

Turkey study• is HLG short-term priority project/and route• is providing connection to Zonguldak, Filyos, Samsun and Trabzon Ports of Black Sea

Region

• This project section is a transit route between Europe, Caucasia and Asia • Part of TINA for Turkey Core Road Network and priority route in TINA study

– The objective of TINA for Turkey is to define a multi-modal transport network (Core Network) designed to extend the European Union's TEN-T network into Turkey

– Now, the Core Transport Network that is determined at the end of TINA study, is negotiated between EC and Turkey within chapter 21 “Trans European Network”

• This project route is a part of – continuation of Pan-European Transport Corridor IV – E-road, HLG south-east axes, BSEC, TRACECA, ECO, UN/ESCAP, TEM and Euro-Asian Road

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Project General Objectives

• Preventing accident with fatal, injured and damaged,• Capacity increase in mountainous region,• Reducing travel time on whole route,• Generate new economic development and create new demand,• Improving the accessibility,• Increasing road safety level on TRACECA route.• Decreasing the user coast

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Actual and Future Demand Traffic Volume (2008 - vehicles/day)

• Maximum AADT :7.070• Minimum AADT :3.150• Heavy vehicle changing ratio 25% - 35%

Traffic Volume (forecasting in TINA project, 2020 – vehicles / day)• Future traffic flows (2020) are estimated using a transport demand model. • The model uses a single socio-economic scenario and three different infrastructure

scenarios (Reference, Long-term Investment and Alternative Scenario)– AADT:5.000 - 10.000

Financial Analysis• PPP application has not been available yet.• There isn’t any existing FA study.• There is no any updated Feasibility study

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According to our estimations (if Turkey has enough financing sources) • start year of the project : 2013 • end year of project : 2015

• Roughly estimated cost :52 million € (for whole project)

This project is not suitable directly for interesting of private investors with PPP

approach at the moment. Economic benefit due to reduction in number of accidents resulting from increase in

geometrical and physical standards Time savings due to increase in vehicle speed

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Existing situation Divided highway with interrupted flow

increase road user impacts (money cost of travel, travel time, safety, comfort, reliability etc.)

According to 2009 accident data, there are 939 accidents on Gerede-Gürbulak road section. On 939 accidents, 113 deaths, 4.913 injuries and 2.017 vehicle property damages has occurred.

After project implemented It is estimated that the user costs will

decrease 50%. According to 2011 current prices, an

estimated profit of 75 million € will be provided when the result of reduction of user cost.

Estimated B/C ratio is 1,44 Economic impacts (value added,

property value etc)will increase.

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Regional integration criteria

The project is located on:TRACECA Route

On access link to TRACECA Route

Other

X

The project impact on regional cooperation is:High Medium Low None

X

The project impact on regional development is:High Medium Low None

X

The infrastructure directly interconnects:

More than two countries

Two countries One country

X

Total annual vehicle that is entered into Turkey and exited from Turkey

1.Gürbulak Border Gate to IRAN 232.447 vehicles / year (Heavy vehicle ratio : 71%, in 2010)9



Economic criteria

Economic assessmentFeasibility

Pre feasibility

Estimated costs

Ongoing studies

No action

X Estimated investment volume

Below 12 Mln Euro Between 12/20 Mln Euro More than 20 Mln Euro

X

Estimated investment periodEqual or below 5 years Between 6 and 12 years Longer than 12 years

X Private funding is interested in the project

Yes No

X

Legal framework for concession is

In place In process Not available

X

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Technical criteria

The project is creating a new link or node or upgrading an existing ones:

Upgrade New

X

The project impacts on inter-modality are:High Medium Low None

X

The project impacts on travel costs reduction for international transport are:

High Medium Low None

X

The project impacts on travel time savings for international transport are:

High Medium Low None

X

The project impacts on reliability/safety are:Significant Medium Not relevant None

X

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Environmental criteria

Infrastructure negative environmental effects None Minimal Serious Irreversible

X

Changes in emission due to traffic

Sensible reduction

Medium Minimal None Increasing

X

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Policy based criteria

Project has firm commitment of government and countries

YES

Master Planning or Similar

YES

Other Governmental

papers

NO

X

Project depends on completion of other upstream investments

NO

YES

Investment already ongoing/ready

YES

Investment not yet started

X

The project is ready for implementationImmediate Less than 3 years More than 3 years

X

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improvement of the road section of gerede - gürbulak border gate and impacts evaluation

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