Improving Adaptive Capacity and Risk Management of Rural communities in Mongolia Mongolia | United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

7 September 2016

Project/Programme Title: Improving Adaptive Capacity and Risk Management of Rural communities in Mongolia

Country/Region:

Mongolia

Accredited Entity:

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

National Designated Authority:

Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism

Please submit the completed form to fundingproposal@gcfund.org1

A. Project / Programme Information

A.1. Project / programme title Improving Adaptive Capacity and Risk Management of Rural Communities in Mongolia

A.2. Project or programme Project

A.3. Country (ies) / region Mongolia

A.4. National designated authority(ies)

Dr. Z. Batjargal, National Focal Point for the UNFCCC and GCF. Ministry of Environment and Tourism (

A.5. Accredited entity United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) A.6. Executing entity / beneficiary

Executing Entity: Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) Beneficiary: 160,000 agriculture households (representing 1/3 of total population)

A.7. Access modality Direct ☐ International ☐

A.8. Project size category (total investment, million USD)

Micro (≤10) ☐ Small (10<x≤50) ☒ Medium (50<x≤250) ☐ Large (>250) ☐

A.9. Mitigation / adaptation focus

Mitigation ☐ Adaptation ☐ Cross-cutting ☒

A.10. Public or private public

A.11. Results areas (mark all that apply)

Which of the following targeted results areas does the proposed project/programme address?

Reduced emissions from: □ Energy access and power generation

(E.g. on-grid, micro-grid or off-grid solar, wind, geothermal, etc.) □ Low emission transport

(E.g. high-speed rail, rapid bus system, etc.) □ Buildings, cities, industries and appliances

(E.g. new and retrofitted energy-efficient buildings, energy-efficient equipment for companies and supply chain management, etc.)

☒ Forestry and land use (E.g. forest conservation and management, agroforestry, agricultural irrigation, water treatment and management, etc.)

Increased resilience of: ☒ Most vulnerable people and communities

(E.g. mitigation of operational risk associated with climate change – diversification of supply sources and supply chain management, relocation of manufacturing facilities and warehouses, etc.)

☒ Health and well-being, and food and water security (E.g. climate-resilient crops, efficient irrigation systems, etc.)

□ Infrastructure and built environment (E.g. sea walls, resilient road networks, etc.)

☒ Ecosystems and ecosystem services (E.g. ecosystem conservation and management, ecotourism, etc.)

A.12. Project / programme life span 7 years

1 Please use the following naming convention for the file name: “[CN]-[Agency short name]-[Date]-[Serial number]” (e.g. CN-ABC-20150101-1).

A.13. Estimated implementation start and end date

Start: 2017 End: 2023

B. Project/Programme Details

The Fund requires the following preliminary information in order to promptly assess the eligibility of project/programme investment. These requirements may vary depending on the nature of the project/programme.

B.1. Project / programme description (including objectives)

1. Observed climate change trends in Mongolia have been pronounced, with tremendous impacts on traditional livelihoods. Over the past 70 years the mean annual air temperature has increased by 2.1°C2 – this warming trend is among the highest observed worldwide. Rainfall patterns have changed and are expected to continue; winter precipitation varies by as much as 40%, while average rainfall has decreased by 10% over the past 70 years, resulting in a higher aridity index.

2. In addition to the drying landscape, changes in water availability are expected to continue. Seasonal thawing of permafrost layers has increased, changing the patterns and typology of permafrost, as well as vegetation patterns and water resources. The area of glaciers has decreased by 30% over the last 70 years, leading to changes in river runoff - expected to be lower in most regions of Mongolia, and higher in certain mountain areas. Lake volumes are expected to change, with some rising due to permafrost melting, but mostly lowering or disappearing altogether. The latest study commissioned by MEGDT/UNDP shows that the permafrost distribution shrunk by 5% over the country’s territory3.

3. The country is disproportionately impacted by natural disasters, including harsh winter disasters (zud), drought, snow and dust storms, flash floods and both cold and heat waves take a heavy toll on livestock and thereby rural livelihoods. The magnitude and frequency of natural disasters have nearly tripled due to climate change 4 in the last decade. Related economic costs are estimated to be US$10-15million annually.

4. Combined, the climate change impacts are adversely affecting household livelihoods and the national economy. The warming and drying trend has contributed to desertification in Mongolia, affecting 70% of the grasslands of the country to varying degrees. As grasslands are critical for pastoral livestock, Mongolia’s herders (i.e. one third of the population, approximately 160,000 herder households) are particularly vulnerable to the drying impacts climate change. Livestock productivity has declined in changing rangelands, and under drought conditions, heat stress and shorter daily grazing times. Important cash income sources of the rural population such as cashmere are affected by productivity losses. In the last 20 years, cashmere productivity has fallen by about 2%. Similarly, changes in rainfall patterns are impacting agriculture sector (livestock husbandry and crop farming), which accounts for 18.66% of GDP5, and makes up about 40% of the labor force of the country.

5. As a party to the UNFCCC, Mongolian Parliament approved the National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2000 and updated it in 2011 to include concrete measures in response to climate change covering all principal sectors of economy. Furthermore, a technology needs assessment (TNA) was conducted to determine the highest priority sectors, and technologies needed, in order to adapt to climate change. The participatory TNA process led by the National Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO) under the Ministry Environment and Green Development and Tourism (MEGDT), applied Multi

2 Technology Needs Assessment, Volume 1 – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia, Ministry of Environment and Green Development, 2013 3 Permafrost mapping in Mongolia, Insitute of Geoecology, 2016 4 Mongolia SNC, Ministry of Nature and Environment, UNEP, 2010 5 National Statistical Yearbook, 2015

Criteria Decisions Analysis (MCDA), through which arable farming and animal husbandry sub- sectors were identified as the sectors most vulnerable, as their social, economic and environmental losses due to climate change impacts are expected to be higher than those of other sectors6. The agriculture sector is the second largest contributor (13.7% of GDP) and employs almost 40% of country’s workforce.

6. Mongolia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC, 2015) has reflected an adaptation component, due to the country’s high vulnerability to climate change and importance of adaptation for the country. The adaptation priorities were selected based on a detailed analysis of expected impacts, potential measures and challenges, and of possible synergies between adaptation and mitigation activities. The INDCs are also conceptually rooted in the Green Development Policy of Mongolia, approved by the Parliament in 2014, with which key sectorial action plans at the national level are being aligned. Newly approved Sustainable Development Vision (SDV) 2030 of Mongolia also reflects specific targets on adaptation to climate change, maintaining stable ecosystem, integrated water resources management and agriculture sector development.

7. Strengthening the agriculture sector’s resilience to climate change, specifically the animal husbandry and crop farming sub-sectors, will require addressing a number of barriers.

Barriers to Agriculture Sector Resilience to Climate Change

8. Need for Climate Information and Integrated Ecosystems Approach to Enhance PlanningAlready, changes to Mongolia’s ecosystems are notable; natural zones are shifting and vegetation cover has reduced significantly. Plant species composition of rangelands has changed, palatable species have decreased and so has the total biomass available as livestock forage. Increased livestock numbers (almost tripled in the last 20 years), development of mining and related infrastructure is adding to the impacts on rangelands, which is particularly severe around large mining sites7.

9. Changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, permafrost and glacial coverage affect the availability of fresh water. With such a complexity of factors impacting the ecological balance needed for sustainable agriculture livelihoods, an integrated ecosystems approach, informed by climate studies, is needed for effective management of natural resources, particularly of water and pasture/land.

10. For instance, the Government and other organizations make winter plans regarding animals’ location and their movements. The plan is based on pastureland carrying capacity defined by maximum biomass stock, but seasonal forecasts are not taken into account due to insufficient capacity8 and accuracy of forecast. Information on the changing landscape and available water resources can further inform these plans, providing guidance to agriculture households which could maximize the survival rate of their livestock and improve crop yield. Greater coordination among agencies is also needed in order to fully realize the benefits that climate information could generate. For herder households to overcome the extreme events, they need information on local conditions of pasture and localized weather hazards. Precise seasonal predictions that enable adequate preparation for harsh winter is estimated to save approximately 80% of animals that are lost every winter.

6 Technology Needs Assessment, Volume 1 – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia, Ministry of Environment and Green Development, 2013 7 Mongolia has recently updated its Law on Environmental Impact Assessment to better define responsibilities and enhance procedures for land rehabilitation; with support by a UNDP/GEF project on Land Degradation Offsets, policies on offsetting damage to land are being further developed based on pilots on land degradation offsetting in Western Mongolia. Information from eco-regional assessments, and mitigation hierarchy is going to be used as a tool for the Government to keep ecologically high-value areas free from any development projects including mining concessions. 8 Technology Needs Assessment, Volume 1 – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia, Ministry of Environment and Green Development, 2013

11. At the national and sub-national planning, climate information paired with data on the pastureland conditions and water resources, would provide not only early warnings related to extreme events, but would also project potential impacts. This would inform sustainable water and land use planning, to ensure preparedness for extreme events, as well as for continuity and enhancement of ecosystem services in changing conditions.

Insufficient Capacities at the Local Level to Enhance Climate-Resilience of Agriculture Sector Mongolia’s livestock of 56 million9 includes cattle and yak, camels, horses, goat and sheep. In general, although veterinary service is privatized, animal health has shown a decline between 2008 and 2011; with about 500 incidents of outbreak of infectious animal diseases recorded in 201110, the number of animals infected by diseases nearly doubled between these years. Genetic make-up influences livestock fitness and adaptive capacity, and determines an animal’s tolerance to shocks such as temperature extremes, droughts, flooding, pests and diseases. Of total livestock, only three million (or 5%) are estimated to have optimal breeding characteristics to be resilient to the changing climatic conditions in Mongolia11. These are native breeds which have a higher survival rate and, under extensive livestock husbandry production, produce higher yields than exotic breeds could considering the relatively low input.

12. Thorough research is needed to enhance selective breeding and access to veterinary services. Breeding units at the Soum (district) are underfunded and often lack technical capacity, therefore unable to provide effective services to herders both in guiding on climate- resilient breeds, and in diagnosis/treatment of animal diseases.

13. Technical capacities of land managers to plan Soum level land use, including pasture management remains low. While customary rules still apply, they are not sufficient to address the new challenges of increased livestock numbers. Climate change, with its shifts in seasonal weather patterns and declines in water resources, has exacerbated the challenge of sustainable pasture management. Institutions for managing pasture use and livestock movements have been unable to confront the challenge of private herds on state owned pasture land, with unclear rules of pasture use. In May 2016, the Law on Pastureland was approved by the Cabinet which will allow pasture user groups to obtain possession right over pastureland they reside in. Although supported through development partner projects, participatory planning for managing pasture use is not often practiced.

14. Guidance to farmers on selection of crops, crop calendar, and water management (i.e. water harvesting, water saving irrigation technology) is critical to adapt to changing climatic conditions. Climate change has already had direct impacts on crop production including on spring wheat, the main crop in Mongolia. Grown mostly in rain fed fields, water availability is the main challenge for production. Another factor causing yield decline is the rising number of hot spells and lack of precipitation during the critical stages of crop growth. Modelling has predicted a decline in wheat yield (1-30% decline between 2011 and 2030) as a result of higher temperatures during the growth period. Crop production has also been affected by pests and diseases and by damaging heavy rains and hails.

15. These barriers combined, hinder a shift towards a sustainable agriculture sector, as well as the future viability of traditional livelihoods that are directly dependent on natural resources and related ecosystem services and functions.

16. Reflecting the priorities identified in the SDV, NAPCC, TNA and INDC, the objective of the proposed GCF project is to strengthen climate resilience of resource-dependent rural population through feasible adaptation measures for maintaining ecosystem services and functions. Specifically, the project will focus on rural communities engaged in animal husbandry and crop farming sub-sectors, which are most vulnerable to climate change, suffering the greatest social, economic and environmental losses. The proposed project seeks

9 National Statistical Yearbook, 2015 10 National Statistical Yearbook 11 Technology Needs Assessment, Volume 1 – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia, Ministry of Environment and Green Development, 2013

to address the urgent needs of the agriculture sector in adapting to climate change, while also addressing the above barriers. The project is thus structured across three complementary outputs to achieve the objective:

Output 1: Enhanced early warning system to strengthen preparedness and planning in

the agriculture sector Output 2: Up-scaled integrated adaptation approaches for maintaining ecosystem

services and functions Output 3: Application of climate-smart technologies to increase agriculture production

and safeguard rural livelihoods 17. The project is expected to be implemented in the Zavhkhan, Khovd, Dornod and Sukhbaatar provinces covering steppe, desert steppe, mountain, mountain steppe and forest steppe zones (See Annex I)12. Target sites have been identified through consultations with project stakeholders based on the following general criteria:

• High vulnerability to climate change and slow onset disasters • Isolation or distance from the central area and support • Availability of previously generated best practices in similar eco-regions • Representation of diverse ecological zones to maximize impact of interventions • Government priority regions for agriculture sector development

Output 1: Enhanced early warning system to strengthen preparedness and planning in

the agriculture sector 18. The Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction and Livestock Early Warning System (SPLEWS) provides information through key institutions allowing herders and government officials to prepare effective responses to slow onset disasters including drought and zud. Due to the large economic losses, the primary focus of SPLEWS is mitigating the disaster risk of drought and zud - slow onset disasters exacerbated by climate change. Rapid onset disasters such as floods, storms and others (extreme weather) are considered as well. SPLEWS has four elements including risk knowledge, monitoring and prediction, information dissemination, and response, all of which will be addressed through the proposed output.

19. SPLEWS requires technical improvements to ensure quality information, to better prevent or mitigate animal losses during droughts and zuds. End users struggle with low access to accurate information and have low levels of confidence in adapting positive practices. In SPLEWS, the high tariff of communication and the poor infrastructure is also a challenge for disseminating real time and updated information.

20. In Mongolia, several agencies are involved in tasks relating to monitoring pasture and weather conditions, disseminating information, issuing early warnings and responding by planning and implementing livestock movements or other measures. Pasture and meteorological monitoring lies with the National Agency for Meteorological and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM), early warning responsibilities the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), and livestock movement planning and implementation is the responsibility of MoFA at the national level, and their line officers/units at the Aimag and Soum levels (i.e. provincial and sub-district), with local government, herders and their organizations at the local level.

21. The proposed GCF project would build on the existing EWS in Mongolia by improving the integration of climate information into projections and models, enhancing preparedness and planning in the agriculture sector. Information on local conditions (i.e. landscape conditions and availability of water resources) will be collected and applied to projections/models to better

12 Further validation of target sites along with selection of target sub-districts will be undertaken during the full proposal formulation. Within the proposed project, at least one fifth of the target districts will be retained from previous UNDP projects in order to ensure applying capacities in place at the local level to efficiently disseminate existing knowledge to other target sites. Whenever possible, the proposed project will work towards strengthening, empowering and sustaining the existing resource user groups.

tailor early warning messages. This also includes completion of the historical loss and damage databases and improvements to data collection systems, in order to calculate and project economic and non-economic impacts of disasters. A post disaster feedback mechanism will be established to collect lessons learned and best practices to further enhance the system, and better respond. Coordination between national and international climate research centers and other relevant institutions will be enhanced, facilitating knowledge sharing with neighboring and other countries facing similar challenges.

22. Early warning is of critical important to crop farmers. Seasonal predictions in particular are important to enhance preparedness and strengthen resilience, as rain and snow storms, heavy rains or hail can impact productivity and crop yield. Seasonal and longer term predictions will allow farmers to better plan and prepare, and measures in seed quality, soil management, and other crop farming practices need to be an integral part of support activities, along with improved forecasting, to strengthen crop farmers’ resilience.

23. The proposed GCF project will strengthen capacity at relevant agencies at both the national and sub-national level, through upgrades to computing and monitoring equipment and technical training. This would include remote sensing to assess forage availability, modelling, mapping and statistical analysis, advanced automatic weather stations and data loggers (at Soum levels) that will allow faster, more accurate and more comprehensive local data collection as the basis for climate analysis. Details of technical needs are to be further determined during the project/proposal preparation.

24. Policy support will also be provided to integrate the results of models and projections into planning. In all four elements of the SLPEWS, best practices generated through the ongoing and past GoM/UNDP interventions, in particular of the Disaster risk reduction programme jointly implemented with NEMA, NAMEM and MoFA (see Annex II) will be directly applied. The response element will be addressed by applying generated data on disaster impact to inform climate-resilient planning.

25. To ensure that agriculture households are a) able to receive early warning messages in view of a potential hazard and b) better understand how to apply early warning messages in efficient response measures, the proposed GCF project will upgrade and scale-up a low cost information dissemination through mobile phones to the rural population country-wide and engage in public awareness raising activities. Public awareness messages will be informed by the results of the above analyses. These public awareness raising messages will include, for instance, the need to manage water rationally due to upcoming drought.

Output 2: Up-scaled integrated adaptation approaches for maintaining ecosystem

services and functions 26. The main climate change impacts in Mongolia are on ecosystems and natural resources. Healthier ecosystems providing necessary services and functions will be a key for sustaining rural livelihoods and building resilience to climate change, climate induced disaster risks and economic shocks.

27. There has already been a shift of natural zones, with a decrease of pasture biomass in all zones, changes in plant composition and soil organic matter, and delayed spring on-set of pastures. The area without vegetation cover increased by over 40% in one decade around the turn of the last century 13 . Ecosystems of the forest steppe and the high mountains are projected to decrease and the steppe and the desert steppe are expected to expand14. Pasture biomass is expected to decrease significantly in all regions, especially in the forest-steppe and steppe regions. Lack of water sources for livestock (and in some areas for human

13 Mongolia Assessment Report on Climate Change, MARCC 2009 14 Mongolia Second National Communication, 2010

consumption) further drives pasture degradation – lack of water sources prevents herders from moving, allowing pastureland to rest.

28. Water resources are undergoing significant changes as permafrost is thawing and glaciers are melting. The seasonal depth of freezing has decreased in soils. Snow depth has been decreasing in the mountainous regions of Northern Mongolia for decades, and the glaciers already retreated by 30%. These trends will result in significant changes in glacier fed water regimes. River runoff is expected to decrease in most regions of Mongolia, with flood risk increasing due to changes in precipitation patterns, and melting glaciers and permafrost. Further, increasing temperatures are impacting surface water resources, drying out of many water bodies.

29. This ecosystems output targets rangeland and water as key resources upon which communities depend. The vulnerability of the water sector was rated higher than that that of human health, forestry and infrastructure by the Adaptation TNA as it is a cross cutting issue related to other sectors and sub sectors, including arable farming and animal husbandry. Consequently, water saving technologies such as drip irrigation and rain and snow water harvesting are crucial measures to build resilience of the arable farming and livestock subsectors. The ability for herders to practice pastoral mobility as a key approach for sustainable pasture use is directly dependent on the availability of water resources. The output therefore also supports adaptation measures in the water sector – harvesting water during increased run-off to extend water availability both spatially and over time.

30. Activities will build on the efforts of previous projects and apply best practices to restore or maintain ecosystem functions, as they relate to sustainable pasture and water management, namely the UNDP/Adaptation Fund (AF) “Ecosystem-based Adaptation Approach to Maintaining Water Security in Critical Water Catchments in Mongolia” project as well as the UNDP/GEF “Sustainable Land Management” project (2008-2013) (see Annex II).

Sustainable Pasture Management 31. Mongolia’s pasture resources are critically important not only for the nearly 160,000 herding families (1/3 of the population), but also for food production and food security of the country. Sustainable use of Mongolia’s extensive pasture lands ranging across several ecological zones from montane to steppe and semi-desert regions is also crucial to maintain other ecosystem services.

32. Extensive degraded land areas can further contribute to regional warming. Mongolia’s extensive grasslands, if maintained and restored, bear a significant mitigation potential through carbon sequestration in soil and vegetation. The grasslands of Mongolia are also among the last large relatively intact grasslands in the world with the largest remaining animal migrations. These values are significant both in terms of biodiversity conservation and the potential for economic diversification including tourism.

33. While a regulatory framework is under development, steps have been taken to strengthen institutions for pasture management, both by re-vitalizing customary institutions, and by building new community-based organizations. Much experience has been gained in piloting and scaling-up community-based organizations work on pasture management especially with support of development partner interventions. Though models and approaches may differ, there is a consensus on the value of herders’ organizations to manage pasture at a group level, while cooperating closely with local government responsible for Soum-wide land use planning and management. Social cohesion and group strength developed through joint activities in natural resource management, and basic income generating activities are the basis for developing organizations such as cooperatives for production and marketing – a strategy that is pursued by the government.

34. Community based pasture management by herders’ organizations, and co-management mechanisms with local government are established models to implement better pasture management today in Mongolia’s rural regions. Winter/fodder preparation approaches through

reserve pastures, small areas protected by fencing and large areas protected by consensus and guarding, have been successfully (re-) introduced.

35. Several projects, under the Ministry of Food and Agriculture and in collaboration with relevant agencies of the Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism, have supported improved fodder production and measures for combating land degradation and desertification. The key government programmes and policies are the “Mongolia National Livestock Programme”, aiming to develop a livestock sector that is adaptable to climate change and social development, and the “Cooperatives Law” and “State Policy on Herders”. Donor supported projects include the project “Sustainable Land Management for Combating Desertification (UNDP/GEF)” from 2008-2013, “Coping with Desertification” (SDC) from 2007- 2011, the long term “Green Gold Program – Pasture Ecosystem Management”, (SDC) starting in 2004, now in phase 3 (2013/16), and the Project for Market and Pasture Management Development (PMPMD) (IFAD/GEF) from 2011-1016,

36. There is a basis of experience with institutions to coordinate livestock movements, organize inter-household cooperation for pasture, livestock and risk management, as well as successful technologies for improving pasture and fodder production. Also, effective implementation arrangements that promote sustainable project outcomes are available as models; these managed to build local government and community capacity by placing implementation responsibility with local government while providing training, funding and facilitation support locally.

37. Building on this knowledge and these best practices generated through the Government of Mongolia (GoM) in collaboration with development partners, the proposed GCF project will strengthen (or establish where relevant) herders’ organizations and develop Soum-wide consensus on group pasture “boundaries”, within the context of mobile pastoral practice in Mongolia. A baseline of pasture condition in project areas/Soums will be established, and training will be provided to the local pasture monitoring officers (line officer of NAMEM) and land managers (line officer of the Administration for Land Affairs, Geodesy and Cartography (ALAGaC)) for rangeland health and land quality monitoring, as well as land use planning. This important baseline will help identify key investments (wells, water harvesting, fodder storage, winter shelters) and reserve pasture areas.

38. The proposed GCF project will support development of the annual Soum pasture management plans, according to established procedures by ALAGaC, with participation of all relevant local officers and herders’ representatives. The plans will include the identified key investments and seek funding from public resources (e.g. local budgets, Soum development budget, pasture management fund).

39. Knowledge dissemination will inform herders on the potential benefits of herders’ organizations (organizational, financial management, income generation/value addition), from a perspective to sustainability both of land use and livelihoods. Local officers (i.e. land managers, pasture specialists of livestock units) will be trained on land use/pasture land use planning, oversight/enforcement and evaluation. Similarly, knowledge sharing, training and public awareness activities will be implemented on sustainable pasture management and climate change adaptation, especially in the context of the climate information and analysis generated under Output 1.

40. This sustainable pasture management element provides the institutional basis for the implementation of activities also of other components, such as activities in breed improvement, fodder production and disaster preparedness and response all of which depend on herders’ cooperation and co-management efforts.

Water Resources Protection and Efficient Use 41. With the changes in available water, water saving technologies such as rain and snow water harvesting, and drip irrigation, are crucial measures to build resilience of the arable farming and livestock subsectors. The creation of water sources have beneficial effects on

livestock productivity, directly through drinking water supply and indirectly as additional water sources will allow for better pasture management through resting and rotational use of pastures. Water reservoirs also beneficial for both livestock husbandry and arable farming. With the changes in river runoff, water harvesting and the construction of small reservoirs (i.e. with capacity less than 20,000 m3)15 is an adaption measure that was prioritized in the TNA.

42. Water reservoirs are particularly critical during spring and early summer. In high mountain areas and forest steppe with significant snow accumulation in the winter, reservoirs have been constructed to collect snow melt water. With climate change predictions of higher snow fall in winter and more frequent drought in summer, rain and snow water harvesting offers itself as a technology with multiple benefits in proving drinking water and regulating run-off. While expert input is needed to identify locations and design appropriate structures, water reservoirs can be maintained by herders and farmers after some training.

43. Rain and snow water harvesting has been practiced in Mongolia for decades, but only in more recent years efforts have been made to repair older structures and construct new, small scale reservoirs mainly to provide watering points for livestock. The new water harvesting structures have been established with assistance from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) in Bulgan, Huvsgul, Arkhangai and Khentii Aimags. Measures in water harvesting can build on a growing body of lessons learned from IFAD’s Project for Market and Pasture Management Development (PMPMD), as well as the UNDP/AF Ecosystem-based Adaptation Approach to Maintaining Water Security in Critical Water Catchments in Mongolia (EBA) project, by repairing/upgrading old structures to be more climate-resilient.

44. Small scale water reservoirs can be constructed with materials available in-country, both natural construction materials for dams as well as membranes to seal the reservoir and prevent loss through leakage. The EBA project in particular has piloted practices that could be scaled-up with comparatively low financial inputs. The project has developed local capacity, including local trainers, policy recommendations and practical guidelines for a range of measures including a) small scale (miniscule) water harvesting, drywells, small scale irrigation, improved spring protection (larger enclosures, revegetation, effective exclusion of livestock).

45. The successes witnessed by local resource users (herders, small holding farmers) and local government authorities, for example in recovery of water and vegetation through spring protection, have created a very positive environment for community participation and scaling up to neighboring river basins. Local governments have readily co-financed from local funds (Soum development fund) measures they saw as successful adaptation measures such as small scale water harvesting, and allocated land to groups for fodder and/or vegetable production. Building on these best practices, the proposed GCF project will scale up interventions from the EBA project.

46. The organization of water user groups (WUGs), both for water harvesting and irrigation, and for spring restoration, is another important practice piloted successfully by the EBA project and which will be strengthened and replicated by the proposed GCF project. Comparable to herder groups for management of pasture resources, WUGs create inter-household cooperation as well as promote cooperation between users and local government for efficient implementation of water protection and saving measures.

47. The EBA project also has completed cost benefit analysis for riparian restoration, provided policy recommendations on adaptation based on economic valuation of ecosystem services, prepared a report on water saving and water harvesting techniques, established monitoring of

15 Although according to national law, an environmental impact assessment (EIA) would not be required for a structure of this scale, identification of sites would be both from a technical viewpoint and in a participatory manner involving the local herder and farmer community and relevant local government officers and inspectors. Compatible constructions with the support of other projects (Ecosystem based adaptation/EBA project of UNDP) and Project for Market and Pasture Management Development/PMPMD of IFAD) have not triggered safeguard procedures15. The PMPMD is a Category B project in IFAD’s risk assessment system. This corresponds to environmental impacts that are site specific and few are irreversible in nature, and can be readily remedied by appropriate preventive actions and/or mitigation measures. No formal ESIA is required for Category B programmes/projects.

glacial melt-off, mapped permafrost distribution country-wide, examined options for financing mechanisms for adaptation measures at different levels, developed a guideline for EBA measures covering forest, riparian, water and pasture resources, supported piloting of Soum level EBA management plans and River Basin Management Plans. The project also produced reports on mainstreaming EBA measures, and on synergies. The reports, guidelines and recommendations generated by the EBA project, along with capacity built, provides an excellent basis to replicate adaptation measures. Educational material has been produced and local training capacity has been established, which can be easily built upon.

Output 3: Application of climate-smart technologies to increase agriculture

production and protect agriculture livelihoods 48. Considerable research on the impacts of climate change on livestock management and crop farming has already been carried out. Results can be applied to agriculture practices, strengthening the climate-resilience of agriculture households in Mongolia.

Livestock Management 49. Research has confirmed key concerns related to herder livelihoods, livestock and the coupled system of traditional herder groups and landscapes they use16. Animal weights and sizes have decreased in recent decades because of increased drought frequency and decrease in pasture production17. The average weight of an adult cow, sheep and goat has decreased by 13.8%, 4.0 and 2.0 kg respectively, in the forest-steppe region during the period of 1980-2001. Consequently, livestock productivity has declined over the same period. For example, sheep wool productivity has decreased by more than 8%, while cashmere productivity has decreased by about 2% over the last 20 years.

50. Study results show that summer-autumn weight of sheep will decline by 10-27% during 2011-2039 and 24-38% from the level of 1961-1990 in the forest steppe and steppe regions18. Due to climate change, an increasing number of very hot summer days has the potential to shorten the animal grazing period. It is expected that droughts and harsh winters will occur more frequently. If adaptation measures are not taken, by the middle of this century, the annual rate of livestock loss could reach 8-12% on average.

51. Of Mongolia’s approximately 56 million livestock, around three million are estimated to have optimal breeding characteristics for climate change adaptation in the country. Genetic make-up influences livestock fitness and adaptation capacity and determines an animal’s tolerance to shocks such as temperature extremes, droughts, flooding, pests and diseases. Adaptation capacity to harsh environments includes heat tolerance and an animal’s ability to survive, grow and reproduce in the presence of poor seasonal nutrition as well as parasites and diseases. These native breeds have a higher survival rate and productivity of meat, milk, wool or cashmere under extensive husbandry conditions. The proposed GCF project will support high quality livestock (HQL), which aims to improve the quality of all animals based on selective breeding using core herds as well as improving animal health services. Using advanced breeding techniques such as artificial insemination combined with traditional methods would allow for breeding of high quality animals which are resistant to drought, thermal stress, harsh winter and parasites and diseases19.

52. Producing supplement feed enriched with protein and nutrients for winter and spring has become a necessity to maintain livestock husbandry under climate change conditions in Mongolia. With more frequent drought days and increased winter precipitation, it is anticipated that supplemental feeding will be necessary for 200 – 240 days of winter and spring. Plants of

16 Chuluun T., 2008 17 Climate Change studies in Mongolia, 2003 18 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Livestock Sector of Mongolia, 2006 19 In Mongolia, livestock are protected by the constitution, and cultural and traditional norms are at the core practices in animal husbandry. Animals are customary slaughtered at a relative older age, compared to intensive livestock production in other countries. Grazing in herds and in the natural environment provides a high quality of life to the animals, though with some risks of predation and weather events.

lower palatability such as Urtica L, Chenopodium L, Artemisia L, Corispermum L and Iris L, and others that are common in many regions would be available for this technology that would provide feed of high caloric and nutritional value for livestock in critical times. To scale up the technology, local methods of producing supplement feed, that exist all over the country, provide a basis to improve on.

53. Producing supplement forage with bacterial enzyme is another method to increase livestock fodder supply. Cellulose matter of plants increases especially in winter and spring, to 30-40 % of the plant matter. Its digestibility is low, and break down of cellulose in the digestive tract produces methane and carbon dioxide. Bacterial substances and enzymes can be produced and used to enrich agricultural residue and low palatable plants. Small scale plants to pilot production could be established and scaled-up eventually. The proposed GCF project will provide expertise and training to support to users (herders and farmers) in application of this tested approach.

54. The proposed GCF project will further build resilience in the animal husbandry sector by improving winter fodder supplies through a) planting of forage perennials resistant to drought and cold winter for fodder production, and b) producing supplement feed for winter and spring. Forage production has decreased by about 65 % in the last 25 years as moat production units were closed down with the end of the centrally planned economy. Over the same period, livestock numbers have increased and vegetation and soil degradation has expanded. Climate change has added also changes in species composition. The pre-conditions to re-vitalize fodder production adaptive to climate change are already developed. Perennial varieties with good climate change adaptation potential, such as “Sumber -1” of Agropyron and “Mandal” of Carex L have already been identified as drought and frost resistant; they would not only have a higher survival rate and good seed production, but may allow for 2-3 times harvesting per year. Planting of these perennials in forest steppe and montane areas has already being piloted and tested.

Crop Farming 55. Climate change also has direct impacts on crop production including spring wheat, which is the main crop in Mongolia. Water availability is the main constraint factor for crop production because spring wheat is mostly grown in rain fed fields. Another factor causing yield declines is the rising number of hot spells during critical stages of crop growth. A climate change impact study revealed a significant correlation between the number of days with temperatures higher than 26°C, and the critical period July, for wheat crops.

56. In climate change impacts study, the decision support system for the agro-technology transfer (DSSAT) 4.0 model was used to assess future trends of spring wheat yield. Due to faster crop growth under higher temperatures, the spring wheat growing period could be shortened by 3-5 days. Spring wheat yield would decline by 1-30% (on average 13%) over the period 2011-2030 from the current average yield under A1B emission scenario as run by the HadCM3 model20.

57. Agriculture has been expanding in Mongolia over the last 50 years, but proper nutrient management technologies to maintain and improve soil fertility, which have been absorbed by crops during their growth, are missing. In the last 20 years, organic fertilizer application has been ignored, which causes ecological degradation and negative effects on crop production. According to a soil fertility survey done in 2008-2010, 70.7% of crop land has soil with humus less than 2.5%. Mongolia has about 370,000 ha of arable land (wheat is grown on 310,000 ha; potatoes on 15,000 ha; other vegetables on 10,000 ha; animal forage on 25,000 ha and oil plants on 10,000 ha). It is estimated that in total 40,900 metric tons of mineral fertilizers (NPK) and 2,300 metric tons of rhizobacterial fertilizers are needed to keep yield stable and high. The technology can be applied in 15 out of Mongolia’s 21 aimags. It is estimated that about 5-8 years would be required for the technology introduction and application.

20 SNC Mongolia, 2010

58. Wheat is the main crop which ensures national food security in Mongolia. The National Program for Food Security (2009-2016) has an objective to make the country self-sufficient in wheat flour production. Also, increasing application of soil protection technologies in agriculture is one of priorities in the NAPCC. The project component on crop farming would contribute to the objectives of these national programs. Seed supplies to farmers are mainly from the informal seed sector, from on-farm seed production and exchange. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has provided assistance through implementation of emergency wheat seed production and new variety testing project21. For several decades pre – 1990, native species of crops (and vegetables) were replaced by imported species, but it has only recently been discovered that local varieties carried genes for resistance to drought and diseases, with high protein contents and early maturity. Now, more efforts are being given to the collection and preservation of plant genetic resources, including local varieties. There are opportunities to scale up production and dissemination of resilient seed varieties.

59. To better protect agriculture households from climate shocks, financial mechanisms, such as a fund for loans to crop producers is needed, as access to loans for crop producers is another key barrier for sustainable production and transformation towards more climate smart agriculture.

60. The proposed GCF project will thus a) strengthen capacity of existing institutions (namely Darkhan Institute) to scale up production of quality seeds suitable for conditions in Mongolia, b) scale up efficient irrigation technologies through establishing access to loans for producers, and through training of agricultural producers in new technology, c) training of agricultural staff (holistic plant management, focusing on root management, use of fertilizers and herbicides, soil management, environmental impacts of agriculture), d) curriculum development for agricultural colleges in efficient irrigation, holistic plant management, fertilizer and herbicide use, soil and environmental impacts).

61. A consistent line which runs through the three proposed project outputs is the application of knowledge, experience and best practices into policy and planning, and engagement with community groups and agriculture households. This way, a) ownership of interventions is assured, b) project investments can be sustained, and c) successes can be further replicated and up-scaled.

B.2. Background information on project/programme sponsor

62. The Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) is the central state organization for implementing the objectives of the Government in the development of agriculture, livestock husbandry and food production and supply. Its functions are to a) develop food and agriculture sector policies and strategies, and b) formulate budget proposals, manage and ensure budget expenditure performance and identify investment, and development of policy and direction. Under the Minister, several agencies and divisions are responsible for implementation of government programs and policies including a) Agricultural land management and irrigation division, b) Technology and machinery division, c) Veterinary and animal breeding department (government implementing agency), d) National Agricultural Extension Center, e) Crop Production Supporting Fund, f) Animal Gene Fund, g) Administration for Inter Aimag “Otor” Reserve Pasture Land. Departments for policy and coordination include: a) Strategic planning and policy department, b) State administration and management department, c) Department for livestock husbandry policy implementation and coordination, e) Crop production policy implementation and coordination department, f) Food production and service policy implementation and coordination department, g) Monitoring and evaluation department, h) International Cooperation department.

B.3. Market overview

63. There are opportunities for Mongolian agriculture products in both the international and domestic markets. Policies are in place to both diversify Mongolia’s exports, as well as to boost domestic production to meet the national food self-sufficiency goals.

21 http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y2722e/y2722e0y.htm

International Market 64. While Mongolia has been able to show a steady increase in exports, diversity of its exports is decreasing. Exports of mineral products were 42.7% in 2005, increasing to 81.8% in 2013. Exports of non-mineral products were 57.3% in 2005 and has been constantly declining, reaching 18.2% in 2013. Exports are composed of few items, namely minerals such as copper, molybdenum and fluorspar concentrates and gold, coal, crude oil, natural stones, textiles and animal originated raw materials such as wool, cashmere, hides and skins, meat and intestines. The high percentage of raw materials in exports, and the heavy dependency of these raw materials on world market prices, is contributing to a growing trade deficit. The trade deficit in 2007 accounted for US$221 million, in 2013 US$2,082 million22 – equivalent to an increase of 9.4 times from 2007.

65. The Government aims to pursue the trade policy that would facilitate the one-sided structure of exports. Within this framework, the objectives are to diversify exports, promote new products, improve their competitiveness, reduce trade barriers, develop business relations with the South and North Eastern Asia and Europe, as well as actively work towards including more Mongolian products in the generalized system of preferences (GSP) schemes of developed countries.

Domestic Market 66. 7.7% of imports are food and foodstuffs23. The Government aims to impose differentiated import duties in order to promote domestic production and encourage the transfer of advanced technology, as well as for the concerns related to food security and better quality foodstuffs24.

67. At the aggregate level, domestic production meets the requirement of its population with domestically produced meat, milk and potatoes. There are however significant disparities in food consumption of its rural and urban populations along with existing seasonal dependencies. For instance, an urban resident consumes 1.5 times less meat, 3.9 times lesser milk than a rural resident, while a rural resident consumes 2 times less potatoes and vegetables, 9.5 times less eggs than an urban resident.

68. In 2003, the Government adopted the "Food and Agriculture Policy" , which aims to create a better economic and business environment, increase production capacity and capability, ensure stable development and growth of livestock, crop and food sectors, produce a more ecologically clean and safe foodstuffs and improve their quality and distribution.

69. The Government proclaimed Year 2008 as "Year of Food Supply and Security" and aimed to ensure self-sufficiency of major stable food products such as meat, milk, wheat flour, potatoes and vegetables. Within the framework of the food security goals, "A third National Crop rehabilitation" campaign was launched. As a result of this campaign, in 2013, 80% of domestic demand of wheat, 100% of potatoes, 54.9% of vegetables were supplied by domestic harvest. The National Programme for Food Security (2009-2016) includes ambitious production targets, as well as improvements to distribution channels and access to markets; these include:

• Annual supply of milk from pre-urban dairy farms will increase up to 40.0 thousand tons on average, and volume of industrially processed milk will be doubled in 2012 and further;

• Total meat export will achieve 38.0 thousand tons, and 60% of meat supply of the population of cities and settlements will be processed industrially;

• The country will become 100% self-sufficient in eggs and domestic production will supply 20% of butter consumption, 25% of vegetable oil;

22 Trade Policy Review – Mongolia (WTO Trade Policy Review Body, 2014) 23 Trade Policy Review – Mongolia (WTO Trade Policy Review Body, 2014) 24 Trade Policy Review – Mongolia (WTO Trade Policy Review Body, 2014)

• The disaster reserve of flour will be sufficient for 20 days, rice and sugar for 15 days, and strategic wheat reserve will increase up to 25% of the total consumption;

• In total, 30% of fertilizers used in crop sector and 20% of plant protection chemicals will be produced domestically, and 50% of trailer and towed aggregates and 70% of agricultural motorized machines will be replaced;

• In total, 60-70% of the Soums will be connected to the wholesale trade network and its branches;

• No less than 25 agro-processing complexes will be established around cities and settlements.

70. With the objectives of increasing the volume of “industrially” processed milk and meat, and the establishment of agro-processing facilities, the National Program for Food Security addresses key barriers that prevent producers (herders) from accessing markets and develop their livelihoods through pre-processing, collection and local value addition. Agro-processing complexes will vary in size, including small scale, collection, storing/cool storage and pre- processing centers. They will enable producers/herders to reach economies of scale, preferably supported by apex organizations such as cooperatives that would play a key role in reaching markets. The “industrialisation” refers to the processing, not the production. Largely, it will enable herders to sell their products (wool, cashmere, milk, meat) from traditional nomadic livestock husbandry at a better price, and year-round. These opportunities also present opportunities to incentivize sustainable land management.

B.4. Regulation, taxation and insurance

71. Any licenses or permits required for the implementation of the project will follow the established policies and processes by the Government.

Tax Considerations for UN-supported Projects 72. UN-supported projects are tax-exempt in Mongolia.

Foreign Exchange and Insurance Policies 73. UNDP’s currency hedging policy is based on the use of natural hedges (matching cash flows (i.e. revenues and expenses) in non-USD currencies) to the extent possible. UNDP Country Office bank account balances are managed not to exceed approximately one month’s disbursement requirements to minimize risk.

74. The Government signed a Standard Basic Assistance Agreement (SBAA) with UNDP in 1976. Consistent with the Article X of the SBAA, the responsibility for the safety and security of the Implementing Partner (executing entity) and its personnel and property, and of UNDP’s property in the Implementing Partner’s custody, rests with the Implementing Partner (executing entity).

B.5. Implementation arrangements

75. The project will be implemented following UNDP’s National Implementation Modality (NIM), according to the Standard Basic Assistance Agreement between UNDP and Government of Mongolia, the Country Programme Action Plan (CPAP), and as policies and procedures outlined in the UNDP POPP (see https://info.undp.org/global/popp/ppm/Pages/Defining-a-Project.aspx).

76. The national executing entity - also referred to as the national ‘Implementing Partner’ in UNDP terminology - is required to implement the project in compliance with UNDP rules and regulations, policies and procedures, including the NIM Guidelines. These include relevant requirements on fiduciary, procurement, environmental and social safeguards, and other performance standards. In legal terms, this is ensured through the national government’s signature of the UNDP Standard Basic Assistance Agreement (SBAA), together with a UNDP project document which will be signed by the Implementing Partner to govern the use of the funds. The (national) Implementing Partner for this project will be MoFA25 accountable to UNDP for managing the project, including monitoring and evaluation of project interventions, achieving project outcomes, and for the effective use of UNDP resources. Responsible parties include MEGDT, NAMEM and NEMA.

Indicative Schematic of the Management Arrangements for the Proposed Project

Project Organizational Structure

Project Board

Senior Beneficiaries Executive Senior Supplier MEGDT, MoF, NEMA, NAMEM MoFA UNDP

Local Governments, Target provinces

Project Support (PMU) National Project Coordinator,

Project Assurance National Project Technical experts on Land & UNDP (Programme Director (MoFA) water management, Crop,

officer) Livestock and EW, Admin & Finance, Communication, M&E, Secretary/Translator

Technical Advisory Local Coordinating body Local Project Units Committee Chair: Local Governor, Each target province

Chair: NPD, Members: NDA Members: Agriculture, Local Coordinator, (MEGDT), NEMA, NAMEM, environment and land Admin and Finance

ALAGaC, Academic management departments, institutions, NGO, Extension resource users, development centers, development partner partner projects, private sector

77. The Project Board is responsible for making, by consensus, management decisions when guidance is required by the National Project Director. Project Board decisions will be made in accordance with standards that shall ensure management for development results, best value money, fairness, integrity, transparency and effective international competition. In case a consensus cannot be reached within the Board, final decision shall rest with the UNDP Programme Country Director. The Project Board will meet every six months.

25 Further review of Implementing Partner will be undertaken during the full proposal formulation through capacity assessment.

78. The National Project Director (NPD) will be in charge of the project on a day-to-day basis on behalf of MoFA within the parameters laid down by the Project Board. The National Project Director will end when the final project terminal evaluation report, and other documentation required by the GCF and UNDP, has been completed and submitted to UNDP. National Project Director is responsible for day-to-day management and decision-making for the project. The National Project Director’s prime responsibility is to ensure that the project produces the results specified in the project document, to the required standard of quality and within the specified constraints of time and cost. NPD will be supported by a project team led by National Project Coordinator.

79. Please see Annex III for an indicative timetable of project implementation.

C. Financing / Cost Information C.1. Description of financial elements of the project / programme

80. The proposed project seeks to strengthen climate resilience of resource-dependent agriculture households. Revenue generated as a result of project interventions apply directly to the beneficiaries, and does not lend itself to significant reflows back to the government or the GCF. The proposed project is therefore structured as 100% grants.

81. As the proposed project is non-revenue generating, a financial model is not appropriate.

C.2. Project financing information

Financial Instrument Amount Currency Tenor Pricing

Total project financing (a) = (b) + (c)

43.000 million

USD ($)

(b) Requested GCF amount

(i) Senior Loans

(ii) Subordinated Loans

(iii) Equity

(iv) Guarantees

(v) Reimbursable grants *

(vi) Grants *

…………………

…………………

…………………

…………………

…………………

25.000

Options

Options

Options

Options

Options

million USD ($)

( ) years

( ) years

( ) %

( ) %

( ) % IRR

* Please provide detailed economic and financial justification in the case of grants.

Total Requested (i+ii+iii+iv+v+vi)

25.000 million

USD ($)

(c) Co- financing

Financial Instrument

Amount

Currency Name of

Institution

Seniority

Options

Options

Options

Options

6.000

4.000

3.000

5.000

million USD ($)

million USD ($)

million USD ($)

million USD ($)

MoFA

MEGDT

FAO

UNDP

Options

Options

Options

Options

Lead financing institution: N/A

(d) Covenants

N/A

(e) Conditions precedent to disbursement

N/A

D. Expected Performance against Investment Criteria

Please explain the potential of the Project/Programme to achieve the Fund’s six investment criteria as listed below. D.1. Climate impact potential

[Potential to achieve the GCF's objectives and results]

82. The climate change impact of the proposed project will be achieved through building and enhancing capacity for adaptation practices in a) land management, both pastoral and cropland, b) livestock management, c) water management and d) improving preparedness and responsive capacity for disasters, predominantly extreme weather events the frequency of which is increasing.

83. The livestock sector in Mongolia is predominantly livestock husbandry based on a mobile pastoral practice. It is estimated that around that 80% of the land is pasture. 70% of that total pasture land is degraded to some extent, due to the increase in number of livestock (almost doubled in the past 20 years) and the radical impact on the composition of herds and changes to the traditional methods and technology for the use of pasture, in the nomadic lifestyle of herders26. Given the amount of land degraded, and the potential for further upscaling, the project’s interventions in sustainable land management and animal husbandry can have a transformative impact.

84. Project interventions contribute to both climate change mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation, as grasslands and soil protection and restoration are enhancing the potential for carbon sequestration, and adaptation, as improved rangeland health allows for pastoral mobility which itself is an adaptation measure practiced over millennia in the territories of Mongolia as a key strategy in response to variable rainfall and to sustainably use the grasslands.

85. The proposed measures in crop farming also contribute to both adaptation and mitigation. Strengthening the local production of crop seeds of better suited crop species under the changing climate in Mongolia, is an important measure for adaptation and in support of national food security. Other measures under the crop farming component, such as conservation tillage, contribute to mitigation as soils and their carbon sequestration potential are conserved.

86. Measures in water harvesting and in efficient use of water for irrigation are crucial adaptation measures in Mongolia to regulate run-off from melting glaciers and permafrost, and to collect snow melt and rainwater and conserve water in irrigation while water sources are drying up as

26 Technical Needs Assessment – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia, 2013

a result of climate change. The protection of springs and riparian areas adds to these adaptation measures and promotes also mitigation through restoration of vegetation and soil.

D.2. Paradigm shift potential

[Potential to catalyze impact beyond a one-off project or programme investment]

87. The proposed project has a high potential to catalyze sustained impacts. The potential for scaling up and replication is high. Already, activities in water resources management and protection proposed for this project and piloted by the UNDP supported project on ecosystem based adaptation are requested by local administrations and population to be scaled up. With climate change impacts becoming manifest and effecting rural livelihoods of the targeted beneficiaries, there is an increasing readiness among stakeholders to collaborate for climate change adaptation. There is already a substantial basis for scaling up, as recent and ongoing projects have established institutions, namely community based organizations, for scaling up measures in pasture land management that would affect very large territories managed by pastoralists.

88. Key elements of the proposed project would increase knowledge and learning, namely on livestock quality (breeding and health) and for the farming sector, in efficient irrigation, holistic plant management, fertilizer and herbicide use, soil and environmental impact management).

89. The modalities of capacity development are conducive to generating substantial impacts through comparatively low inputs through targeted capacity building of local trainers, such as local livestock officers who would in turn train further extension staff and herders as the resource users. Further project contributions to creating an enabling environment for climate change adaptation include capacity development for local production of resilient crop (wheat) species, and investments and access to loans to enable crop farmers to scale up adaptation technologies, namely irrigation.

90. The project would contribute to developing a supportive regulatory framework and policies regarding, in the crop farming sector, seed quality control, incentivizing efficient irrigation measures, competency standards of staff of agricultural companies, and regulating fertilizer and herbicide use. For the livestock sector, policy support would include regulations on pasture use fees, incentives for high quality livestock breeding by herders, and improved coordination of relevant agencies.

D.3. Sustainable

development potential [Potential to provide wider development co- benefits]

91. The intensifying impacts of climate change are having the greatest impact on the agriculture sector, which employs one third of the population. Related loss and damage is both economic and non-economic – Mongolia has a long nomadic history, with pastoral mobility intrinsically linked to cultural identity.

92. Annual economic losses caused by weather-related natural disasters have increased in Mongolia. During the last decade the frequency of weather-related natural disasters has almost tripled, with related economic damages estimated between US$10–15 million per year (excluding damage caused by drought and harsh winter –zud)27. Frequency and intensity of climate extremes are expected to continue in the future due to climate change28. These include drought and harsh winters (zud), which are particularly devastating to the agriculture sector. Recovery from extreme events, such as the 2015-2016 zud, with which over 922,000 heads of livestock perished, puts incredible pressure on public resources. The severity of 2015-2016 zud was not as extreme as the 2009-2010 zud with which approximately 10 Mln heads of livestock got perished. This prompts shifts in development priorities and putting the gained development progresses at risk. Impacts on herder families is significant as augmented by low market price of livestock products, increasing debt levels, limited household coping mechanisms, and the limitations in government emergency funds and the capacity of local governments.29

93. The enhanced early warning system supported by the proposed GCF project will enable more precise seasonal predictions and proper preparation for events such as zud, reducing

27 Natsagdorj L et al., 2003 28 MARCC, 2009 29 Rapid Assessment Mission Impact of Dzud Situation 16 February 2016, United Nations Mongolia

losses and damages. Such enhancements are expected to result in saving up to 80% of livestock, which would usually be lost during harsh winters30.

94. By increasing livestock survival rate and improving crop yield, the proposed project supports the food security and food self-sufficiency goals of the country. Importantly, the land use and water management support will contribute to sustainability of herder livelihoods, as well as water security in the country.

D.4. Needs of recipient

[Vulnerability to climate change and financing needs of the recipients]

95. Livestock and crop farming subsectors were identified as the sectors most vulnerable to climate change and their social, economic and environmental losses due to impacts are expected to be higher than those of other sectors31. Susceptibility to economic shocks and natural hazard makes predominantly subsistence herders and farmers extremely vulnerable in view of climate change. Land degradation and extreme weather conditions are resulting in loss of livestock and crops. These losses have led to migration of herders and farmers to urban areas in search of opportunities.

96. Per the 2010 census, the total number of households in Mongolia had increased by 31.9% when compared to 2000. The number of rural households decreased by 4.3%, while the number of urban households increased by 61.8%32. Being risky undertaking rural livelihood This increases in urban households can be partly attributed to family members leaving the farm for urban opportunities. Those opportunities however are not necessarily readily available – the unemployment rate is higher in Ulaanbaatar than in rural areas.

97. Adaptation measures are needed to provide greater stability and dependability to agriculture livelihoods and vulnerable rural households in Mongolia.

D.5. Country ownership

[Beneficiary country ownership of project or programme and capacity to implement the proposed activities]

98. This concept was developed in close consultation with MoFA, MEGDT and NAMEM and based on the key findings of the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia, SDV (2016), NAPCC (2011) and INDC Mongolia (2015).

99. The proposed project is aligned with priority national strategies and policies to address climate change impacts and adaptation in Mongolia. Key strategies, programs and policies include:

Policy Description Mongolia’s SDG – 2030 vision document

Approved in February 2016 with 4 goals, 44 targets and 20 indicators, the document serves as a Mongolian version of SDG 2030. It will be implemented in three phases. It sets a vision to reach higher middle income status with dominant middle income groups of society, ecologically stable environment and stable democratic governance. One of the three pillar economic sectors is agriculture sector.

National Green Development Policy and Implementation Plan 2030

Approved in 2014, the policy defines six strategic goals and sets out an ambitious goal of environmentally sensitive and resource efficient development in Mongolia. It defines broader commitments to environmental management and sustainable use of natural resources. It also identifies the need to determine Mongolia’s contributions and commitments to cope with negative impacts of climate change, develop adaptation strategy for key economic sectors and implement pilots to strengthen adaptation capacity of regions particularly vulnerable to the climate change (under Strategic objective 2).

National Security Concept of Mongolia

The National Security Concept of Mongolia was adopted in 2010. In the Concept, the integrated security strategy was defined: ‘National security shall be assured through the interrelationship among the “security of the existence of Mongolia”, “economic security”, “internal security”, “human security”, “environment security” and “information security”’. Chapter 3.5.2 relates to the adaptation policy of climate change and negative consequences of land degradation. Measures include establishing institutional structures and capacity, improving the legal environment for

30 Technical Needs Assessment – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia (2013) 31 Technical Needs Assessment – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia (2013) 32 http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/rap/files/meetings/2012/121113_mongolia.pdf

pasture management, decreasing land degradation through natural conservation and irrigation technologies, enhancing animal husbandry practices and public awareness (National Security Concept of Mongolia was approved in 2010).

Millennium Development Goals-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy (MDG-based CNDS)

The MDG based CNDS was endorsed in 2008. The Strategy is being implemented in two phases for 2007-2015 and 2016-2021. Six priority areas have been defined. The fifth development priority is: ‘To create a sustainable environment for development by promoting capacities and measures on adaptation to climate change, halting imbalances in the country’s ecosystems and protecting them’. Under the priority 6 strategic objectives were identified and the sixth objective is ‘to promote capacity to adapt to climate change and desertification and to reduce negative impacts’. Relevant measures are scientific assessment and future scenario, implementation of policy compliant with sustainable development, identification of risk areas, adaptation methods and technologies in crop farming, managing livestock within pasture capacity, intensification of animal husbandry along with nomadic livestock, and increasing public awareness and participation.

State Policy on Food and Agriculture

Approved in November 2015, the policy sets target to increase GDP contribution of agriculture sector to 20 percent by 2030 from current approximately 12 percent. At the core of the policy is the traditional nomadic livestock husbandry resilient to climate change. Sustainable development of climate smart crop farming industry will be promoted through introduction of innovative technologies.

State Policy on Environment and Nature

In the State Policy on Environment and Nature (1997), reducing climate change negative impacts was one of the aims of the Policy’s directions (The State Policy on Environment and Nature, 3.11.7).

National Programme for Food Security

The National Programme for Food Security is being implemented from 2009 to 2016 in two phases. It has 4 priority pillars and 13 main objectives to ensure sustainable food security. Under four pillars priority areas such as enabling environment, food security, food safety and nutrition, 27 high priority projects were summarized, including: meat production, milk production, irrigated crop production, crop diversification, renovation of crop equipment, prevention of food borne disease and drinking water supplies etc.

National Mongolian Livestock Program

The National Mongolian Livestock Program‘s goal is ‘to develop a livestock sector that is adaptable to changing climatic and social conditions and create an environment where the sector is economically viable and competitive in the market economy, to provide a safe and healthy food supply to the population, to deliver quality raw materials to processing industries, and to increase exports’. The program’s implementation period is 2010-2021 and includes two phases. Five priority areas have been identified in the Program and the fourth priority area is, ‘developing livestock production that is adaptable to climatic and ecological changes with strengthened risk management capacity’. Under the fourth priority area, 4 major measures such as improving pasture management, increasing hay and fodder production, livestock water supply and livestock risk management were stated.

‘Water’ National Program (2010- 2021)

The National Program on Water was endorsed as a supporting program to the MDG based CNDS in 2010. The program aims to support development through protecting water resources from depletion and pollution, to implement the state policy toward providing a healthy and safe environment for the population. The program proposes two-phases of implementation and 6 priority objectives. Water resource related adaptation measures have been included in the program. For example: establishing water ecosystem monitoring, construction of a water harvesting system in mountain areas of the cryosphere, and awareness raising among the public including youth.

National Action Program on Climate Change (2011-2021) (NAPCC)

The program was updated in 2010 and its main goal is to adapt socio economic development, to reduce vulnerability and risks of sectors, to support green economy development. Climate change adaptation is one of four strategic objectives of the program.

National Action Program for Combating Desertification

The program was adopted in 2010. In coordination with the National Program on climate change, seeks to reduce land degradation and desertification at local level has been stated in the program.

D.6. Effectiveness 100. The proposed GCF project is fully aligned with national priorities and builds on existing and efficiency government programmes. GCF support will address the identified additional activities/costs [Economic and related to integrating climate change risks into government programmes, thereby extending the financial value of these investments. soundness and effectiveness of 101. A thorough economic analysis will be conducted at the proposal development stage. the proposed activities]

E. Brief Rationale for GCF Involvement and Exit Strategy 102. The proposed project applies the comprehensive approach necessary to effectively build resilience in Mongolia’s agriculture sector. Both the conceptual and financial scope require assistance and falls within the mission of the GCF in assisting to scale-up the proposed capacity-building and technology development and transfer measures to the large territory of Mongolia. With a third of the population involved in animal husbandry and spread over the larger rural areas, outreach and extending technologies for climate change adaptation to all vulnerable communities require the proposed approach.

103. The project concept reflects the priorities of the country, as detailed in national and sectoral policies and plans (see section D.5.) and adds to ongoing initiatives. Policy support is a critical part of the project - success of interventions will be documented, and support will be provided to the Government for integration of best practices into plans for further upscaling.

F. Risk Analysis

104. A number of risks have been identified with the assumption that currently applied climate change scenarios are high confident. A more extensive risk analysis will be conducted during proposal development, including a thorough environmental and social screening.

Identified Risks Risk Probability Mitigation Measures

Long term sustainability of investments (e.g. irrigation)

Medium Implementation will actively engage local groups (e.g., WUAs) to ensure greater ownership and thus long term sustainability.

Environmental risks associated with water harvesting, irrigation, earthworks

Medium Water harvesting will involve construction of only small-scale and natural reservoirs and dams, using proven techniques and approaches in Mongolia. Similarly, the irrigation schemes of the proposed project will focus on system for only small scale land holdings. Measures will be taken to minimize any sediment entering waterways, as a result of earthworks.

Risks are expected to be ‘medium’, this will be confirmed with a more thorough environmental and social screening during GCF proposal development.

Project interventions do not have intended impacts, because behavior that is not conducive to the project objective continues.

Medium Project interventions are expected to increase crop yield, improve livestock survival rates, lead to better management of land and water resources and inform agriculture planning through enhancements to the early warning system. Communities will be engaged throughout the project, from proposal development, to implementation and M&E. Field officers will be recruited through the project to ensure communities and district government staff have access technical advice, and opportunities to express concerns as necessary. Through regular monitoring, success of interventions will be measured and communicated to communities to provide assurance, as well as to inspire behavior change.

Staff turnover or lack of technical capacity within executing entity

Medium Capacity needs assessments will be undertaken to identify any specific needs and gaps. As necessary, training programmes will use a training-of-trainers approach for continuity. Training materials will be packaged and made available online for continued learning or as refresher courses.

Extreme event disrupts implementation or damages investments, resulting in delays and additional costs.

Medium Timing of activities during implementation will be scheduled to minimize risk, to the extent possible.

G. Multi-Stakeholder Engagement 105. The project concept was developed in close consultation with MEGDT, MoFA and is based the NAPCC, INDC and TNA Adaptation, which was developed through extensive stakeholder consultation.

106. Design and eventual implementation of the project will entail a partnership of several ministries and their agencies, local governments and rural communities. Key ministries and agencies include Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism (MEGDT), Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, National Agency for Meteorology and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM), National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and National Animal Health and Breeding Agency, as well as their local level branches. National Designated Authority (NDA) has been consulted several times, prior to the formulation of project concept, during and at the stage of finalization. The consultations took place mainly in form of bilateral discussions with the representatives of the above organizations and also 21 herder households in 5 soums of Dundgobi province in the southern Gobi region in May 2016. The households represented subsistence level herders with less than 100 heads of livestock and included 4 woman-headed households. Local herder community members consulted are listed in Annex IV. Aside from the NDA, relevant officials of the MEGDT and MoFA have reviewed the concept note and provided their inputs during the formulation.

H. Status of Project/Programme

J. Supporting Documents for Concept Note ☒ Map indicating the location of the project/programme (Annex I) □ Financial Model ☒ Pre-feasibility Study (Annex II) □ Feasibility Study (if applicable) □ Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (if applicable) □ Evaluation Report (if applicable)

1) A pre-feasibility study is expected to be completed at this stage. Please provide the report in section J.

2) Please indicate whether a feasibility study and/or environmental and social impact assessment has been

conducted for the proposed project/programme: Yes ☐ No ☒ (If ‘Yes’, please provide them in section J.)

3) Will the proposed project/programme be developed as an extension of a previous project (e.g. subsequent phase),

or based on a previous project/programme (e.g. scale up or replication)? Yes ☐ No ☒ (If yes, please provide an evaluation report of the previous project in section J, if available.)

I. Remarks

Annex I: Map of Mongolia with target provinces

Annex II: Pre-feasibility Study

The project concept was designed to address specific challenges and needs identified by the Government of Mongolia (GoM). It was informed by best practices developed through previous GoM/UNDP projects in sustainable land management, ecosystem-based adaptation and disaster risk management. A comprehensive Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) for Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia, climate impact modelling studies and key strategic documents on adaptation provided further rationale for the proposed design. Key lessons learnt from these projects and studies, as well as government priorities are outlined in this pre- feasibility study. A more in-depth feasibility study will be completed during development of the full proposal.

Output 1: Enhanced early warning system to strengthen preparedness and planning in the

agriculture sector

The 2013 Technology Needs Assessment33 highlights an increase of annual economic losses caused by weather-related natural disasters in Mongolia. During the last decade the frequency of weather-related natural disasters has almost tripled and economic damages were estimated to be US$10–15 million every year (excluding damage caused by drought and harsh winter –zud). Drought and harsh winters (zud) are highly likely to occur more frequently, increasing risks for the whole agriculture sector, both for crop farming and nomadic livestock husbandry. Droughts are also expected to become more intense. Mongolia’s vast territory, low population density, harsh climatic conditions and poor infrastructure are severe constraints for an efficient Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) System.

The establishment of a well-functioning Early Warning Systems (EWS) has been identified as one of the priority measures in several policy documents including the National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC). The National Agency for Meteorological and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM) provides relatively accurate weather forecast based on locally collected data, and disseminates weather hazard warnings. A significant gap yet remains, as these warnings are generally disseminated at the provincial level, many of which are as large as a whole country. Local communities do not often receive localized warnings, which exacerbates their vulnerability.

The Project “Strengthening Local Level Capacities for Disaster Risk Reduction, Management and Coordination in Mongolia”, implemented by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) with UNDP support, has helped to address challenges, and a sound progress in strengthening national level capacities for disaster risk management and in piloting community based disaster risk management has been made. An Early Warning System (EWS) through mass messaging has been initiated, aiming to 1) provide remotely located herders and residents of small rural settlement residents with localized weather forecasts and accurate information on expected hazardous conditions; 2) set-up a user-friendly, local language EWS focusing on natural hazards but also applicable for other emergencies; and 3) promote community self-help in disaster risk reduction and management.

Following an assessment of technical options, the project provided provincial and soum (rural sub-district) meteorological offices country-wide with a mass messaging software program developed by Mongolian developers and 3G modems which are the key elements of a EWS based on mobile/cell phone technology, and the extensive mobile phone coverage in Mongolia’s territory. After receiving weather forecasts and information on potential hazardous phenomenon from provincial meteorological office, a soum meteorological officer creates a short warning message (with up to 160 characters) and sends it using the mass messaging software program by one click to the target numbers of local recipients from already established and maintained database. Then, the first level recipients of warning messages have obligations to further disseminate the warning to on average 5-10 people in their localities ensuring all herder households and rural settlement residents received warning messages.

The system was introduced to all 21 provinces of Mongolia from January to March, 2015 and in total, 319 soum meteorological offices and 40 local emergency management units have been provided with the software programme and 3G modems; and over 540 meteorological staff and emergency personnel were provided with training opportunities on the application of the system.

Briefly after the establishment of the system in spring 2015, severe snow and dust storms occurred and affected much of Mongolia’s territory. According to a NEMA report, 864,114 individuals of 21 aimags received 317 set of warning messages on hazardous events in 2015. The system proved very beneficial; for example,

33 Technology Needs Assessment, Volume 1 – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia, Ministry of Environment and Green Development, 2013

in Khentii province no loss of human life occurred and no search and rescue operation was needed, unlike in previous storms of comparable strength. The system has also been used extensively to warn about the recurring steppe and forest fires of spring 2015 in eastern provinces. In October 2015, the Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia, as the Chairman of the State Emergency Commission, issued a decree to provincial and sub-district (soum) Governors to ensure sustainable operation of the EWS and allocate the relatively low operational cost.

Besides EWS support, the project has also contributed to developing an enabling policy framework and to strengthening local capacity for disaster risk response and management; both are relevant to the measures identified by the TNA to improve EWS towards and effective and comprehensive Seasonal Prediction and Livestock SPLEWS. Recent policy outputs that enable integrated Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Mongolia include the concepts of the “Reformulated Law on Disaster Protection” and the “Law on Legal Status of Emergency Service”, the “National Programme for Community Based Disaster Risk Management”, the “National Disaster Protection Plan of Mongolia”, and the “Model Disaster Preparedness Plan for Soum and Khoroo”.

In line with international practice, namely the principles of the Sendai Declaration, the project facilitated a high level dialogue to strengthen coherence of disaster risk reduction, responses to climate change and sustainable development in Mongolia. To enhance knowledge and inter-agency collaboration, a national workshop addressed mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into development policy and planning.

Supporting the implementation of the “National Program for Community Based Disaster Risk Management”, the project assisted in the development of local disaster preparedness plans in target soums (districts), in the development of disaster risk indicators and an assessment methodology, in publication of knowledge products, and in strengthening local-level mechanisms for disaster management. Training support was provided to all levels, including to NEMA (37 disaster protection instructors), provincial Emergency Management Departments (EMDs) (training of trainers and technical up-grades in training capacity for five provincial EMDs).

With these enabling conditions prepared by the “Strengthening Local Level Capacities for Disaster Risk Reduction, Management and Coordination in Mongolia” Project, and the basis of the EWS, the technical up- grades planned under the proposed project will be complementary and effective contributions to reduce vulnerability of rural communities to weather-related disasters.

To effectively target and design measures under the proposed project, the TNA34 provides insights on key issues for the development of SPLEWS:

• The density of existing observation and monitoring stations is too low (about 130 meteorological stations

and the distance between them is 150-300km) to provide timely, accurate, unambiguous and credible information to the population and decision makers at risk of a disaster. Such low resolution affects the accuracy of monthly and seasonal climate forecast.

• Although short-term (up to a week) forecast is relatively accurate, skills need to be improved for seasonal prediction, satellite processing and pasture yield modeling techniques, and for operating systems. Monthly and seasonal prediction accuracy is currently less than 60%.

• Computing resource to run models and to process satellite images need to be improved. • Herders and farmers have limited access to information, and limited understanding to interpret it. • Some components of the SPLEWS technology already exist in different institutions (NAMEM, IMH,

Satellite Data Centre, NEMA, MoFA and Pasture Management Association NGO), but coordination is lacking, particularly during disaster response.

Output 2: Up-scaled integrated adaptation approaches for maintaining ecosystem services and

functions

Sustainable Pasture Management

Healthy rangelands contribute to the resilience of livestock production and of herder communities in the face of natural disasters, as they promote greater overall forage and better nutrition for animals, thus leading to better survival rate of animals during dzud.

34 Technology Needs Assessment, Volume 1 – Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia, Ministry of Environment and Green Development, 2013

The health situation of rangelands in Mongolia has been much debated in recent years; discussions focused on different methods of monitoring and evaluation of rangeland health, on the nature of Mongolia’s rangeland as equilibrium and/or non-equilibrium ecosystems, and on the availability and development of a comprehensive network of reference sites that can provide a suitable baseline to measure changes and that takes into account soil, vegetation and climate conditions.

Important progress has been made in establishing reference sites in different ecological zones, in aligning monitoring methods, and in evaluating results of different approaches to pasture use planning and management, most of which shared a community based approach to pasture land management, based on herders’ own institutions. As pasture land is state owned, a consensus seems to be reached that collaborative management between herders’ groups (named differently by different projects) and Soum government is an essential feature to success.

The Green Gold project, with the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), and in collaboration with ALAGAC (Administration for Land Affairs, Geodesy and Cartography), and the Information and Research Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, has recently published the “National Report on the Rangeland Health of Mongolia” (Ulaanbaatar 2015). The report lays out the methods for monitoring and provides an assessment of rangeland health for the different ecological regions in Mongolia.

The “National Report on the Rangeland Health of Mongolia” (2015) summarizes findings for different ecological zones. The underlying method for this assessment was that each monitoring site was assigned a recovery class between I and V, whereby I represents the best condition (at or near reference condition, or requires 1- 3 growing seasons for recovery), and V represents the worst condition (The plant diversity is altered due to extensive soil loss, accelerated erosion rates, or salinization).

“52 % of the points were in Class I; 25% in Class II; 15% in Class III; and 7% in Class IV. Sites with very different recovery classes were intermingled, indicating that great variability in rangeland condition exists within soums. No NAMEM monitoring sites were located in areas with Class V, but while uncommon, such areas do exist and have been recorded in inventory by Green Gold”.

Most monitoring sites in Desert Steppe and Desert ecological zones are in reference condition or only slightly altered (Class I). A higher percentage of sites requiring more than 3 years of management for recovery (Classes II-IV) were observed in forest steppe, steppe and semi-desert zones. Sites in central aimags such as Arkhangai, Bulgan, Tuv, Selenge, and Dundgobi have experienced the greatest degree of rangeland degradation, reflected in the lowest percentages of sites in Class I and II. The lesson for programming is that attention needs to be paid to the different design requirements in the different project areas, which differ significantly in their natural environmental and ecological conditions.

The report proposes to implement “resilience-based rangeland management”, focused on the “sustainable production of meat, fibre, and other environmental goods and services in the face of environmental and societal variability. This framework integrates the traditional, community-based pasture management practices of the past with more recent rangeland management concepts and new technologies. Implementing resilience-based rangeland management requires national coordination among the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), Ministry of Environment, Green Development, and Tourism (MEGDT), and Ministry of Construction and Urban Development (MCUD) as well as collaboration among herders and local government.”

Another recent report on “Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands” 35 is based on a Trans- Disciplinary Research Conference in June 2015 in Ulaanbaatar. It includes both social science and rangeland ecology studies that provide valuable insights for institutional and technical program design. In summary, the status of rangelands in Mongolia is assessed as follows: “Mongolian rangelands and the pastoral systems that depend on them are at a potential tipping point. Some research reports widespread grazing- and climate- induced degradation while other assessments find that Mongolian rangelands are resilient but at risk. To manage rangelands sustainably, it is essential to understand the differences in ecological capacity of different soil and vegetation types across the landscape, and the distinct ways that different plant communities respond to management and disturbance.” (Maria Fernandez-Gimenez, 2015, page 10)

The conference provided results of several studies: “While one recent broad-scale remote sensing study claims that observed declines in greenness (a proxy for vegetation production) are correlated with increases

35 Proceedings of Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans-disciplinary Research Conference, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, June 9-10, 2015 Edited by: María E. Férnández-Giménez Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, USA Batkhishig Baival Nutag Action and Research Institute, Mongolia, Steven R.Fassnacht Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, USA; David Wilson, Nutag Action and Research Institute, Mongolia

in livestock density (Hilker et al. 2014), a recent field study in three ecozones within Bayankhongor Aimag found that rangelands are resilient but potentially at risk (Khishigbayar et al. 2015) and another study of winter- grazed pastures across 4 ecological zones in 10 aimags found that these pastures showed little evidence of degradation (Chantsallkham 2015).

Gao et al. conducted a novel country-wide analysis comparing stocking densities and forage availability to calculate percent forage use over time in all Mongolian soums from 2000-2014. Contrary to reports of widespread overgrazing, they found that heavy stocking was pervasive on about a third of Mongolia’s rangelands with 11% experiencing consistent overgrazing (more than 70% use for 10 or more years out of the 15 year period assessed).

A remote sensing study of Gobi Altai Aimag by Vova et al. advances methods for using remote sensing to detect land degradation, but found no net change in degradation over a 13 year period of observation. In another country-wise study, Kang et al. used remote sensing, climate and livestock data to assess the predictors of livestock mortality in dzud, finding that the causes are spatially variable across the county, but that temperature, precipitation and production play important roles.” (Maria Fernadez-Gimenez, 2015, page 11)

While the majority of studies suggests that large portions of Mongolia’s rangelands still are resilient, with few areas heavily degraded. While assessments on rangeland health vary, there is a consensus that rangelands are at risk, from combined impacts of climate change and weaknesses in management, whether due to institutional, legal or enforcement issues.

Despite gaps in the legal framework, namely the absence of a law regulating pastureland issues, there are good opportunities to work within the current framework, to promote sustainable pasture management through herder group-based approaches. Community organizations of herders and forest user groups, are recognized as entities under the Civil Code (4.8.1.). Current land law provides for the option to allocate use rights to natural resources including winter and spring pastures to customary resource users. It also enables contracts between Soum governor and a group of herders/customary resource users for management and protection of an area of which the boundary should be agreed by neighboring users or groups

A newly introduced process by ALAGAC (Administration for Land Affairs, Geodesy and Cartography) for allocating natural resource use rights on Soum level based on customary use, and facilitating agreements among herders, herder groups and Soum government, further promotes group-based pasture land management.

Over 2,000 formally organized herder groups formed since 1999 to help empower and educate herders to manage their lands and herds sustainably (Mau and Chantsalkham, 2006). This movement, called community- based rangeland management (CBRM), is unprecedented in the world and offers an unparalleled opportunity to learn from the outcomes of grassroots collective action, and put this knowledge to work designing better policies and practices.”

As summarized in a policy brief36, the research found that “CBRM communities show consistently higher social outcomes than communities without formal CBRM organizations. These communities use more traditional and innovative rangeland and livestock management practices, are more pro-active in solving problems and communicating with local authorities, have larger social networks, and higher levels of trust and mutual assistance. Livelihood benefits of CBRM are not as clear.

Ecological differences in the pastures of the CBRM herders and non-CBRM herders are slight, although there are some indications that the winter pastures of CBRM communities in the steppe are healthier than those of non-CBRM communities. CBRM member households are better prepared for dzud and lost a smaller proportion of their herds. Some CBRMs helped herders to learn from the 1999-2003 dzud so that they were better prepared for the dzud of 2009-2010, indicating that CBRM can help reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity.”

The UNDP/GEF Project “Sustainable Land Management for Combating Desertification” (SLM Project) implemented by MoFA and MEGDT successfully piloted and scaled up sustainable land management practices based on a collaborative management approach from 2008 to 2012. This project was implemented in 13 Soums (sub-districts) of 4 Aimags (provinces). The objective of the project was to strengthen the enabling environment for sustainable land management by building capacities in appropriate government institutions

36 MOR2 Policy Brief No. 2 Community-based Rangeland Management in Mongolia: Outcomes and Keys to Success

and user groups and demonstrating good practice in SLM through on-ground interventions that are integrated with national economic and social development policies. Core activities were in land/pasture management, water management, combating desertification measures (including sylvopasture), strengthening institutional capacity, community based natural resource management, and alternative income generation.

In collaboration with other development partners, the SLM project developed a guideline for the development of the Soum level annual pasture land management plan. This strengthened the capacity for collaborative management among the Soum government land officers and organized herder groups, a key element for sustainable pasture land management in Mongolia. The SLM project also supported the establishment of a Center for Desertification Research and introduced SLM as a degree course at the National University of Mongolia, thus improving national research capacity for SLM and combating desertification.

The project successfully piloted a series of practices for sustainable pasture use, (re)-introducing rotation and resting, fodder production, rehabilitation of water sources, protection from soil erosion, establishment of wind- breaks, intercropping, and cultivation of trees and bushes. The project’s technical reports inform on species for fodder production windbreaks, soil protection feasible for different zones, and the project published a series of educational pamphlets for agricultural extension. These resources can be drawn on in sustainable land management activities under the proposed project.

Knowledge on herders’ institutions for pasture management and income generation, and on apex organizations for processing and marketing, has been much expanded in recent years, with contributions by other projects supported by the UNDP, World Bank (“Sustainable Livelihoods Project”, now phase 3), SDC (Green Gold Project), and IFAD (Project for Market and Pasture Management Development); all of which share approaches of collective action by herders. The government’s “Herder Policy” and the Law on Cooperatives likewise seek to promote collective action and community organization. The concept of the Law on Pastureland has been approved by the Government in May 2016 after pending almost a decade.

An ongoing initiative “Pastures, Conservation, Climate Action - Mongolia” implemented by Mongolian Society for Rangeland Management in collaboration with University of Leicester is looking into linking pastureland carbon sequestration with voluntary carbon market. Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) scheme will be piloted with selected herders’ groups, based on 1) carbon sequestration through conservation and sustainable rangeland management, including participatory development and independent validation of scheme, issuance and marketing of certified carbon credits (for voluntary carbon market) and 2) alternative mechanisms as appropriate e.g. through International Wildlife Consultant LTD’s artificial nest project. Being the first of its nature, the initiative will hugely benefit herder communities and groups, if successful.

Water Resources Protection and Efficient Use

The ongoing project on “Ecosystem Based Adaptation Approach to Maintaining Water Security in Critical Water Catchments in Mongolia” (UNDP/Adaptation Fund) has built on some experiences of the SLM project, promoting user groups and community participation to implement local adaptation measures, and is successfully introducing measures in water resources protection and efficient use. Commencing in 2012, implementation is planned to be completed in 2017. Target areas are the two main critical and unique landscapes - Turgen and Khahiraa river basins in Western Mongolia, and the Ulz river basin in the Eastern Steppes. The main objective of the project is to maintain the water provisioning services supplied by mountain and steppe ecosystems by internalizing climate change risks within land water resource management. Project implementation is organized under three components on:

• Integrated strategies/management plans for target landscapes/river basins developed and under Implementation

• Implementing landscape level adaptation techniques to maintain Ecosystem Integrity and Water Security under Conditions of Climate Change

• Strengthening capacities/Institutions to support EbA strategies and integrated river basin management, their replication and mainstreaming in sector policies

The report on the mid-term evaluation37 (2015) summarizes key achievements:

• Ecological and Socio-economic assessments and studies as a basis for the development of ecosystem-based adaptation strategies for the target landscapes and for the development of River Basin Management Plans (Kharkhira/Turgen Ulz) have been completed.

37 Ecosystem Based Adaptation Approach to Maintaining Water Security in Critical Water Catchments in Mongolia” Project by UNDP – PIMS # (4505) Final Submission February 17th, 2015

• As a particular highlight, the results of the EbA study had been used as a proposal for gazetting additional Protected Areas, which had been approved already in three Aimags and is now discussed in parliament.

• Ecosystem-based Adaptation strategies for the target landscapes and River Basin Management Plans have been mainstreamed into planning operations: EbA strategies have been endorsed by 17 Soum Parliaments.

• Also Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has been supported in all River Basin Administrations (RBA) in target watersheds. The IWRM plan of Uvs lake – Tes river will be endorsed by the MEGDT in compliance with the Article 4.8 of the “Law on water”.

• Concrete legal, institutional, financial and technical measures were defined for ensuring water security. • The project managed to expand the PA network by about 600 000 ha, which led to a substantial

recovery of biodiversity there and improvement of the hydrological conditions in the area demonstrated by a return of indicator species. 22,000 hectares of habitat for the white-naped crane and antelopes have been protected from farming and economic activities.

• Capacities of rural communities for monitoring natural resources and climate change impacts and for adaptive management in two watersheds strengthened. In three communities monitoring stations were established to measure water discharge. In particular, schools were taught in biological water monitoring based on indicator species, and Aimag Laboratories received support to monitor 20 – 30 chemical elements.

• The project provided a glacier monitoring station in Altai Mountain. • Suite of physical techniques to improve ecosystem resilience established in the two critical sites: This

encompassed the rehabilitation of springs and engineered wells and the establishment of small water harvesting facilities.

• Out of the total goal of rehabilitation of 70 springs, currently 12 have been rehabilitated and fenced, introducing a much improved approach to spring and riparian area restoration that other initiatives by protecting a larger area and actively re-vegetating riparian areas.

• 16,000 hectares pastureland which had been abandoned due to water scarcity had been rehabilitated. • Water supply issues of 15 ha of agricultural land had been resolved, and innovative water supply

systems had been equipped with central power systems with renewable energy. Water reservoirs/water harvesting have been put in place through modern technologies and two through revival of traditional technologies.

• The project has a particular merit in enhancing ecosystem resilience through applying the landscape approach by balancing pasture-water-livestock ratios (as the newly established or re-established water sources induced in-migration from overgrazed areas)

• Ecosystem-based adaptation approaches/integrated river basin management mainstreamed in national resource use planning and implementation mechanisms in sector policies: Concepts such as establishment of RBA and RBA Management Plans were introduced into the Law on Water and Law on Water Pollution. The mainstreaming of EbA into laws stabilizes the concept of EbA within the Mongolian legislation and is an important achievement of the project.

• Institutional structure for river basin management integrating climate change risks (Administration and Council) established and in operation in the target areas as model for replication - the project has supported RBAs in mainstreaming climate risks and supported them through the introduction of IWRM and user groups.

• The project has also enhanced the participation of civil society in Water Management through involving River Basin Councils into monitoring of RBAs.

• Best practices are identified and a program for up-scaling best practices developed and implemented: Almost all practices and strategies of the project are worth to be up-scaled and disseminated. The project has already worked out a dissemination strategy through print media and radio in collaboration with a Press Agency.

The report on the mid-term evaluation38 (2015) points out several highlights of the project with regard to its successful piloting of water management measures and its contribution to policy implementation:

• The project is one of few innovative projects taking a rigorous ecosystem approach to climate risks

and is at the same time in full coherence with the climate change adaptation strategy of the country. • Integrated strategies/management plans for target landscapes and river basins have been developed

and are under implementation already in 3 Aimags and 17 Soums. Highlights of achievements are the endorsements of 3 PA proposals at Aimag levels.

38 Ecosystem Based Adaptation Approach to Maintaining Water Security in Critical Water Catchments in Mongolia” Project by UNDP – PIMS # (4505) Final Submission February 17th, 2015

• The project has been instrumental and successful in integrating climate risk issues into RBAs, it has supported IWRM as a participatory approach in water management, and civil society monitoring of RBAs through RBCs.

• The project applies a multitude of adapted physical techniques which enhance climate resilience on community level. The highlight of the component is its full integration into the ecosystem approach, by using the location of water infrastructure as an incentive to move herders away from overgrazed area, in this way achieving a better water-pasture-livestock balance.

• Ecological, economic, social and political sustainability is high, potential risks have already been prevented through the project strategy or successfully mitigated.

Best practices developed by the EbA project, as well as the SLM project, are well documented, in Mongolian and English language, and should be used as guiding materials when designing on-the-ground measures under Output 2 of the proposed project and preparing the in-depth feasibility study.

Output 3: Application of climate-smart technologies to increase agriculture production and protect

agriculture livelihoods

Livestock Management

A comprehensive study on “Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Livestock Sector of Mongolia” 39(2006) has assessed climate change impacts and vulnerability and recommended adaptation measures for different sectors, including livestock. The study uses animal live-weight as a key indicator of many features such as growth and development, fertility and birth, productivity, resilience and adaptive capacity depend on change of animal’s weight. Animal live-weight is dynamic depending on pasture and climatic conditions each year because animals graze year round on native pastures. Thus, animal weight change serves as an integrated indicator of environmental factors and its changing trend is a critical part of climate and ecosystem change study.

The key findings for livestock were:

• Climatic conditions that prevent animal grazing are projected to increase in both summer and winter seasons. Unfavorable conditions in summer are expected to increase in the eastern and central steppe, while unfavorable conditions in winter would increase in the north-western mountainous region.

• The observed data shows a decline of the average weight of sheep, goat and cattle by an average of 4 kg, 2 kg, and 10 kg, respectively, from 1980 to 2001

• Animal productivity also has decreased slightly. Sheep wool productivity has decreased by more than 8 per cent, while cashmere productivity has decreased by about 2 per cent over the last 20 years.

• With climate warming, the temperature stress on animals was observed. • Post-climate change summer conditions are expected to have a more adverse impact on animals than

the changed winter conditions. Summer live-weight is likely to decrease by about 50 per cent, while winter ewe live-weight is expected to decrease by 15 per cent by 2080.

The TNA for Climate Change Adaptation in Mongolia studied barriers, and priority actions for developing high quality livestock (HQL):

• Estimates by breeding centers of high quality livestock that in 2012 of over 40 Mio livestock in Mongolia only around three million animals have optimal characteristics for climate change adaptation to the local environment. These local breeds have higher survival rate and higher productivity of meat, milk, wool or cashmere. According to the national statistics for 2011, the number of animals infected by disease in 2011 has almost doubled compared to in 2008. About 500 incidences of animal infectious diseases were recorded in 2011 (National statistical yearbook) in the country.

• High quality livestock development aims to improve the quality of all animals based on selective breeding using core herds as well as improving animal health services. In addition, diffusion of the technology would enable Mongolia to control livestock numbers within its pasture carrying capacity and reduce overgrazing and desertification.

• It is proposed to target all herders in the country through implementing selective breeding techniques and improved veterinary system. It is estimated that the diffusion of this technology can cover at least

39 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Livestock Sector of Mongolia - A Final Report Submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), Project No. AS 06. Submitted by Punsalmaa Batima Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. 2006 Published by The International START Secretariat 2000 Florida Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20009 USA. www.start.org

60% of the total 154 000 herding families. Anticipated time frame for diffusion of the technology is about 6-8 years which is 2018-2020.

• The major impacts of climate change on livestock diseases have been on diseases that are vector borne.

• Climate changes could also influence disease distribution indirectly through changes in the distribution of livestock. A comprehensive disease management system has been identified as essential for Mongolian livestock for climate change adaptation.

• The TNA identified 14 barriers to developing high quality livestock, including economic and financial, human skills, organizational, technical, legal/policy/regulation, market failure, social and information related barriers. Economic and legal barriers were identified as the top barrier.

• The assessment proposes actions to develop a) financial incentives, b) enabling policies, c) skill training and education, d) institutional arrangements, e) information and awareness raising, f) research and development, g) market system support, and h) international cooperation.

The “Mongolia Livestock Sector Study”40 (2010) by the World Bank investigated evaluated recent work on the sector to understand in greater detail what is driving the sector. While not a strategy, the study served to inform government policy and expenditure in the sector. The study also comments on the complexity of factors affecting the livestock production system in Mongolia including by social, economic, environmental, and technical factors that include: (i) livelihood strategies (i.e., subsistence, risk mitigation, incomes, commercialization), (ii) production systems (i.e., access to animal feed, animal breeding for production or quality improvement, livestock disease control, resource management, etc.), (iii) market structure and demand (i.e., selling off-take products, purchasing inputs, accessing services, market competition), (iv) land use (i.e., pastureland management, resource access), and (v) public sector intervention (i.e., resource use policies, food safety, access to production resources, subsidies, food import etc.).

The study points out necessary areas of government support to the livestock sector:

• Access to land and water • Organization of herders • Development of the fodder industry • Support services • Risk Mitigation and Disaster Management • Financial markets • Social services

The National “Mongolian Livestock Program” has the purpose to develop a livestock sector that is adaptable to climate change and social development and create an environment where the sector is economically viable and competitive in the market economy, to provide a safe and healthy food supply to the population, to deliver quality raw materials to processing industries, and to increase exports. The program targets 5 priority areas:

• Drawing special attention from the State to the livestock sector as the main traditional economic activity of the country, to assist in the formulation of a favorable legal, economic and institutional environment for sustainable development, and to develop a good governance in the livestock sector;

• Improving animal breeding services based on social need/demand, increasing the productivity and production of high quality, bio-clean livestock products and raw materials and increasing market competitiveness;

• Raising the veterinary service standard to international levels and protecting public health through securing Mongolian livestock health;

• Developing livestock production that is adaptable to climatic, environmental, and ecological changes with strengthened risk management capacity; and

• Developing targeted markets for livestock and livestock products; establishing proper processing and marketing structures and accelerate economic turnover through an incentive system.

Crop Farming

A 2012 report41 on “Mongolia’s Sustainable Development Agenda: Progresses, Bottlenecks and Vision for the Future” describes achievements in the development of the food and agriculture sector to improve food

40 Mongolia Livestock Sector Study, Volume 1- Synthesis report 2010, World Bank, http://siteresources.worldbank. o r g / I N T M O N G O L I A / R e s o u r c e s /report_ENG.pdf

41 Government of Mongolia, Rio+20, UNDP (2012): Mongolia’s Sustainable Development Agenda: Progresses, Bottlenecks and Vision for the Future

supply for the population. The government launched several programs, including State Policy for Food and Agriculture Development (2003), National program of food security (2009), and Mongolian Potato Program (2004), Green Revolution Program to support development of the arable farming sector. The GoM also implemented the National Crop Campaign III in 2008-2010 achieving domestic self-sufficiency in production of wheat, potato and other main vegetable types. The Campaign was implemented for the period of 2008-2011 with specific goals to:

• Create favourable legal and economic environments for crop farming; • Improve human resource capacities through upgrading knowledge and skills of crop farmers, training

and re-training of qualified experts; • Increase the farmed crop plans through reusing abandoned lands; • Improve the quality and provision of seeds for major crops; • Introduce advanced techniques and technologies to advance intensification of crop farming.

Having implemented the Campaign, the grain harvest was doubled in 2011, compared to 2008. The potato harvest grew also by 1.7 times, other vegetable type production by 1.3 times and livestock fodder and technical plant seeds by 1.7-1.9 times. It has brought environmentally-friendly or zero tillage technology to conserve soil fertility. Highly productive planting and harvesting machinery and equipment has been introduced to complete harvesting within 30 – 35 days and to reduce wastes from harvesting. For the purpose of minimizing crop farming risks, funds were allocated from the state for renovation and new installation of irrigation schemes and green houses. In 2008, Mongolia domestically supplied 27.6 percent of the total flour demands and 43.7 percent of potatoes and vegetables. In 2011, the country became fully self sufficient (100 percent) in meat, wheat and potato production and met 62 percent of the need for other vegetables.

The TNA for Adaptation identified for arable farming three priorities including wheat intensification, vegetable production with drip irrigation and potato seed production. It emphasizes a conservation tillage and holistic plant management to be a technically viable alternative to the current crop production practices in Mongolia and provides prospects for future sustainability. The system of wheat intensification will target at least 80% of the grain producers who are permanent farmers dealing with grain production. The technology transfer and diffusion will require at least 8-9 years and will be completed by 2021. By 2021, about 300 thousand ha (60% of the total) of crop land will be farmed by conservation tillage and rotation system of SWI technology. The full deployment of this technology will ensure national grain security and environment benefits.

A study42 supported by USAID, evaluated potential impacts of (re)-establishing large scale crop-farming in the Eastern steppes of Mongolia, pointing out potential detrimental impacts to biodiversity, natural landscapes and therefore rural livelihoods through 1) directly converting species habitat, 2) reducing water availability, 3) degrading land and habitat through desertification and erosion, 4) increasing species mortality and reducing ecosystem health, 5) use of pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers, 6) importing exotic species or strains of crops that are invasive or strongly compete with native species, and 7) reducing species’ abilities to move by erecting fences and constructing roads and railroads. These points are important to consider in designing programs for crop production, particular with objectives in climate change adaptation, as they could turn out to be “mal-adaptations”, and also on the long term be counter-productive to achieving food security goals.

International Market

The Livestock and Agricultural Marketing Program (LAMP) is being implemented by the MOFA with FAO support. The project is an innovative program designed to improve the livelihood of herders by linking them to markets and investing in animal quality. For project preparation, a comprehensive evaluation 43 was undertaken, of which key points are summarized:

• The livestock industry in Mongolia with its organically-bred large quantity of livestock is a very promising yet underdeveloped export industry, faced with mainly domestic obstacles. By 2010 meat production had increased to around 300,000 tons with an export potential of about 10 – 15 percent.

42 Case Study - The Potential for Intensive Crop Production in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia:History, Current Status, Government Plans, and Potential Impacts on Biodiversity Report prepared for WCS TransLinks Program Karl Didier, WCS Conservation Support Program Ochirkhuyag Lkhamjav, WCS Mongolia Country Program, August 2009

43 Document of The World Bank Report No: 73827-MN, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION, PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 11 MILLION TO MONGOLIA FOR A LIVESTOCK AND AGRICULTURAL MARKETING PROJECT (LAMP) May 17, 2013, China and Mongolia Sustainable Development Unit Sustainable Development Department East Asia and Pacific Region

• Most of the meat comes from animals slaughtered outside the abattoir system. Mongolia has been unable to reap the benefits of exporting its meat and other by- products. The industry’s support system collapsed following the transition and is in need of system - wide upgrading. Currently nearly 90 percent of Mongolia’s meat export is to Russia, which includes canned beef meat, and the rest is made up of horse-meat to Japan, mutton (and some live animals) to the Middle - East and other countries (e.g. Brunei, China), and canned pet-food to Korea.

• The average export price for Mongolian meat has been in the region of $1.00/kg which is three to four times lower than the price received by Australian meat exporters. Mongolia’s contribution to world meat exports is only about 0.5 percent and therefore a very small player with huge upside potential. The same can be said about the by-products from the livestock sector: wool, cashmere, milk and leather.

• To realize these gains, the industry must focus on a number of reinforcing measures along the supply- chain: a trace-back system for each animal, animal breeding and genetic improvement, animal nutrition and feeding regime, and animal health.

Domestic Market

The National Food Security Program (NFSP), 2009 –2016, aims to provide the entire nation with secure supplies of affordable and accessible nutritious and safe food to enable healthy livelihoods and high labor productivity. Lessons learned from the first National Plan of Action for Food Security (2001 to 2007) were used to develop an improved NFSP for the period of 2009 to 2016.

The LAMP preparation provided insights into domestic market challenges and conditions:

• There are no cohesive supply chains in the livestock industry. It is possible that the domestic market can help to drive the needed developments in the sector. With a rapidly urbanizing population and growth in the number of wealthier, more discerning customers, demand is likely to increase for high quality products.

• In the capital city there has recently been an expansion of more formal retailing outlets, including supermarkets, which pay greater attention to marketing (in terms of quality of product, packaging and promotion).

• The response of the sector to this trend by offering more differentiated products is in its infancy. Urbanization and changing demand patterns are driving change in the livestock sector, including linkages between producers and markets. The GASFP-LAMP project is aimed at strengthening these linkages.

• Programs from agencies such as SDC, WB, GIZ, ADB, IFAD, AVSF, EU, FAO, MCC, CIDA, Mercy Corps, on quality upgrading, better pricing methods, business capacity development of herder groups, milk sector development, fodder supply system, food safety system, intensive livestock production systems, animal health systems, drugs and epidemic prevention, and rural income diversification) have laid the groundwork for the LAMP.

• Partnerships have already been initiated by agencies such as the AVSF, the ADB, IFAD, Mercy Corps, GIZ, and SDC. These include upgrading of yak fiber with foreign processors (AVSF), linking small- scale producers/herders with processors of livestock products (IFAD), linking larger scale rural producers with larger processors of wool and cashmere (ADB), increasing value added for yak and camel products (SDC), strengthening linkages between rural businesses (Mercy Corps), dairy, meat & wool 15 processing), and generation and production of value added products, including mutton (GIZ), LAMP will build on the lessons of these past and present initiatives.

The LAMP project is supporting preparation of guidelines for value chains development for cashmere, wool, meat and milk under the FAO/TA component. The FAO/TA component is supporting extension service training materials on selected issues such as animal husbandry, markets, product quality, feasibility studies and business plan development in conjunction with the relevant departments of MoFA to be used in training extension agents, veterinarians, herders and NGOs involved in the project.

Annex III. Indicative Timetable of Project Implementation

TASKS44

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Output 1: Enhanced early warning system to strengthen preparedness and planning in the agriculture sector

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

Output 2: Up-scaled integrated adaptation approaches for maintaining ecosystem services and functions

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

Output 3: Application of climate- smart technologies to increase agriculture production and safeguard rural livelihoods

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

44 Activities are, at this point, indicative and may change as a result of further development and review at the proposal stage.

Annex IV. List of interviewed local community representatives in Dundgobi province

№

Soum – Bagh

Head of household name Household

members Female head of

household 1 Adaatsag – 4 Boldbaatar T. 4 - 2 Adaatsag – 3 Baatartsogt D. 5 - 3 Adaatsag – 5 Chadraabal E. 5 - 4 Bayanjargalan - 2 Uuganbaatar A. 5 - 5 Bayanjargalan - 1 Battulga O. 7 - 6 Govi-Ugtaal – 3 Rentsendorj D. 2 - 7 Govi-Ugtaal – 2 Erdenebulgan Sh. 5 - 8 Gurvansaikhan - Dersene-Us Tserenjamts S. 4 -

9 Gurvansaikhan - Gurvansaikhan Nemehbayar Kh. 1 -

10 Gurvansaikhan - Gurvansaikhan Nergui Kh. 4 -

11 Gurvansaikhan - Elgen Tserenchimed Ts. 4 Yes 12 Undurshil – 2 Bolor-Erdene A. 8 - 13 Undurshil – 1 Nandintsetseg Kh. 3 Yes 14 Erdenedalai – 5 Badarch Ch. 8 - 15 Erdenedalai – 2 Uuganbayar Ts. 3 - 16 Erdenedalai - 1 Ganbaatar J. 5 - 17 Erdenedalai - 1 Gantulga J. 5 - 18 Erdenedalai - 6 Enkhbat D. 4 Yes 19 Erdenedalai - 5 Batnasan D. 2 - 20 Erdenedalai - 4 Enkhchimeg Z. 4 Yes 21 Erdenedalai - 3 Dalai D. 6 -