improving decision making by using hazard analysis model ... · jeddah is characterized as a main...

International Journal of Business and Economic Development Vol. 1 Number 3 November 2013

www.ijbed.org A Journal of the Academy of Business and Retail Management (ABRM) 83

Improving decision making by using hazard analysis model for the city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Naill M. Momani and Ayman S. Fadil

Faculty of Economics and Administration, King Abdu Aziz University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Key words Hazard Analysis Model; Jeddah Municipality; Risk Index

Abstract The aim of this paper is improve Jeddah Municipality effectiveness and efficiency

through using risk index based methodology in decision making in order to develop strategies, policies, and plans to deal with city issues and problems. Risks were prioritized according to their significance in terms of likelihood, consequences, and effects in light of municipality’s stakeholders. It is found that real estate market control by expatriate, increasing in traffic accidents, the presence of factories and workshops in the residential areas, and abandoned buildings, as well as proliferation of street vendors were the most hazards that of importance to city’s stakeholders.

Introduction

The city of Jeddah on the west coast of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the middle of the Red Sea with a total area of 748 km2 is one of the most important cities in Saudi Arabia and the gateway to trade, which has gained great importance the movement of international trade with foreign markets. Jeddah is characterized as a main gate of the Two Holy Mosques and the first stop for the pilgrims and pilgrims coming to the leading of the Holy Land (Mecca and Medina) enters through the year to Jeddah’s King Abdul Aziz International large numbers, up to 5 million people annually with the purpose of Hajj or Umrah or study or tourism and entertainment (Momani and Fadil, 2010).

The growth of the city to become one of the largest ones in Saudi Arabia which is

considered to be the financial capital of the country. Jeddah is of the earliest historical cities and has gained its position through the ages from its geographical location as a gateway to the holy places Mecca and Madina. After that Jeddah lives in the process of urbanization since 1980, starting with area surrounded with a wall that has two doors on the Mecca and the other from the sea area with approximately one km2 .According to the first local urban planning of the city of Jeddah in 1962 the area of Jeddah was 700 km2 and in another urban plan in 2006 the area became about 2350 km2 with noting that the total area of Jeddah is 5000 km2 with population of more than three and a half million people in 2012. This enlargement of the city make it difficult to handle city issues and problems (hazards) at the same time to please different stakeholders such as government officials, investors, residents, visitors and others due to different hazards. Therefore, we suggested a framework to develop weighting criteria that could be used in setting



future plans, policies, procedures that could consider city priorities from different stakeholders’ perspectives.

In order to improve decision making for land development affecting infrastructure system, Thekdi and Lambert (2012) developed a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. These layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems.

As for product development, Jiang and Pan (2012) proposed a method for selecting new

product development programs regarding risk attitude of decision makers. Khazaeni et al. (2012) proposed a fuzzy adaptive decision making model for selection of balanced risk allocation which transforms the linguistic principles and experiential expert knowledge into a more usable and systematic quantitative-based analysis by using the fuzzy logic. Additionally, Chang and Wu (2012) elaborated on the consequences of perceived risk by taking the moderating effects of decision-making style (i.e., involvement vs. heuristics) into account in the context of online shopping.

Gregory et al. (2012) examined opportunities for seismic risk mitigation decisions at U.S. maritime ports, with special reference to the role of stakeholders and the quality of the decision-making processes used to inform seismic risk initiatives. It is concluded that increased attention to the quality of stakeholder input is likely to improve port seismic risk-management decision processes. When attempting to quantify risk, a number of problems arise in the public sector where multiple stakeholders are involved.

Pate-Cornell (2002) proposed approaches to the treatments of uncertainties in risk

analysis, their implications for risk ranking, and the role of risk analysis results in the context of a safety decision process. Moreover, he discussed the implications of adopting conservative hypotheses before proceeding to what is, in essence, a conditional uncertainty analysis, with considering different levels of "conservatism" for the ranking of risk mitigation measures. Public's risk perception should be considered as input into political and administrative decision making. Sjoberg (2001) proposed several arguments if we should let the experts run risk policy and discussed the weaknesses of risk perception models.

This paper presents literature review of risk decision making models and proposes a methodology that could be used for city of Jeddah and other comparable ones.

Methodology This paper suggests a decision making model to improve Jeddah Municipality

effectiveness and efficiency in utilizing existing resources through prioritizing city issues and problems (hazards) through using risk index based methodology in decision making. The



research methodology which is used in this paper consists of conducting seven community based workshops to solicit community hazards- more details about the workshops will be discussed latter in this paper- designing questionnaire based on these workshops that cover all mentioned hazards, survey of stakeholders’ feedback, a statistical analysis of the survey data, and ranking of identified risks from the perspectives of stakeholders.

The questionnaire consisted of two sections. Section I solicited general information about

the respondents. Section II consists of 57 hazards associated with city of Jeddah perspective and asked respondents to review and indicate the likelihood of occurrences of these hazards as: highly likely, likely, less likely. Also, participants were asked to identify the selected risk magnitude of consequences for the city as: high, medium, and low. Finally, section II asked respondents to indicate the potential effects of selected risk as: environmental, economical, security, social, and political. These hazards were sourced from different workshops that have been conducted through representative districts in Jeddah such as shown in Table (1) and a list of residents’ complains that have been taken from Jeddah Municipality hot line number 940 departments. This hot line free number enable residents to call and register their complains. We included the hazards which accumulate 85% of the entire registered complains for one year, as shown in Table (2).

Table (1): Key risks as per their significance from Jeddah districts as pointed out through seven community workshops

Main issues and problems (hazards) No. of participants

Date Location/ Municipality

District

Groundwater in the area east of the highway, building heights, pollution, quarries, factories nearby, illegal workers.

40 6/3/2012 Southern Municipality

1st

The spread of rodents collapses asphalt, low level of hygiene, the spread of odors, affected residents of the multiplicity of roles.

15 11/3/2012 Om Alsalam Municipality

2nd

Creation of parks and public spaces for young people, finding practical solutions to traffic bottlenecks, find quick solutions to expedite the issuance of building permits, car wash in the streets and the spread of workshops within the neighborhoods.

75 13/3/2012 Azizia Municipality

3rd

Bulk of employment, random buildings, compensation of developed areas in Ruwais, hygiene, lack of parks, lighting.

13 19/2/2012 New Jeddah Municipality

4th

Unification of paintings for shops, hygiene, lighting, historical development of the region, the roles of mayors.

25 4/3/2012 Matar Municipality

5th

Ground water in front of homes and schools, non-delivery of electricity for homes, hygiene, bulk of employment, the lack of instruments to some of the workers.

90 14/2/2012 Al Balad Municipality

6th

Burning of tires in the south of Jeddah, discharge water and sanitation in riverbed, mosquito breeding, infrastructure, traffic congestion.

45 12/2/2012 Briman Municipality

7th



Table (2) Key risks as per the Jeddah Municipality hotline 940 number

% of Total Complains

Total Complains

Issues and Problems (hazards)

12 1311 The spread of mosquitoes

10 1092 Spread of smell of sewage

10 1017 Others

8 895 Accumulation if household waste

8 888 The lack of lighting

7 723 Street pavement

4 463 Worn out asphalt layers

4 378 Prevalence rodents

3 365 Absence of lightning columns

3 338 Asking for Jeddah Municipality representative

2 212 lightning column is not working

2 190 Absence of waste containers

2 179 low level if cleanliness of restaurants and shops

2 163 Not pavement streets after excavation ends

1 155 Personnel selling

1 137 Asking for ambulance

1 120 Worn out asphalt layers

1 116 The presence of damaged and abandoned vehicles

1 108 High water table

1 112 Street pavement

85 8962 Total

During each workshop Jeddah Municipality City Council were invited to listen to

stakeholders for that part of the city which consists of different districts, as shown in Figure (1), in order to identify the main problems along with potential quick solutions given that Jeddah Mayor assistant has attended all workshops.Among stockholders were: City officials, elected member in the city council, investors, residents and others.

After conducting the seven workshops it was difficult to prioritize community needs to identify strategies, plans, policies, and procedures that are needed to overcome such hazards. Therefore, we developed risk based decision making model which consider different stakeholders’ input as we have discussed above. The questionnaires were distributed to 250 stakeholders in Jeddah City. 148 responses were received which represents a response rate of 60%.



Figure 1 Jeddah City Districts

Sample Composition The respondents have been selected to represent different views for Jeddah City districts.

More details of the respondent profiles are presented in Table (3). The respondents’ different perspectives in selecting potential hazards for Jeddah City such as potential effects, magnitude, and consequences base our model on realistic expectations that will help in future risk management planning. As shown in Table (3) 44% of our sample holds bachelor’s degree and only 8% percent below high school. Also, 40% of our sample has more than 5 years of experience with their tested area which enable them to give better appreciation with the problems that their area face and about 18% of our sample has less than a year with the tested area which could help them to spot new issues or unusual ones that the other part of sample could realize due to their living experiences. In our sample, we took all the elected members within the city council and part of the municipality employee. Most of the sample, 32%, was among resident within that tested area. In our sample we tried to have representation from all district to be able to prioritize different issues and hazard on the city level. Table (3):Profile of the survey respondents Respondents Profile Categorization and percentages

Educational background

Below high school (8%) Bachelor's degree(44%)

High school (36%) Master's degree (7%)

Doctoral degree (5%)

Years of experience in the area

More than 5 years (40%) 1-5 years (42%) Less than a year (18%)

Reasons of interest

Elected member (5%) Municipality mayor (3%) Resident (32%)

Other (3%)

Investor (7%)

Municipality employee (20%)

Interested in the area (30%)

District 1st (16%) 2nd (14%)

3rd (14%) 4th (15%) 5th (12%) 6th (16%) 7th (13%)



Data Analysis Method The survey feedback includes three groups of data: The likelihood of occurrences of each

risk, and its magnitude of consequences, as well as potential effects in terms of environmental, security, social, economical, and political ones. The three point scales for the likelihood α (highly likely, likely, less likely) and the consequences β (high magnitude, medium magnitude, low magnitude) and the potential effects γ (environment, security, social, economical, and political). These point scales need to be converted into numerical scales. Zou et al. (2007) used a value of 1 for high, 0.5 for medium, and 0.1 for low which were also used in this research. As for the potential effects scale we consider that all effects to have the same weight given that the maximum potential effects could reach 100% so each effect will contribute 20% of the total effects. This scale which is used to identify α, β, γ values could be modified when there is rational, i.e. if social issues are less important than economical issues it will take less weight than the suggested ones. The risk index for each hazard is calculated through Eq. (1)

rij= αij βijγijEq(1)

Where rij= Significance score assessed by respondent j for the impact of risk i, i= ordinal number of risk, i Є (1, m); m= total number of risks; j= ordinal number of valid feedback to risk i, j Є (1, n); n= total number of valid feedbacks to risk i; αij=likelihood of occurrence of risk i, assessed by respondent j; βij=consequence of risk i assessed by respondent j, γij= potential effects of risk i assessed by respondent j.

The average score foe each risk considering its significance from the perspective of stakeholders can be calculated through Eq. (2). This average score is called the risk significance index score which will be used to rank among all hazards.

Ri = Eq(2)

Where Ri= significance index score for hazard i. Risks are ranked in accordance with their significance index (Ri) for the study area that are based on different viewpoint from stakeholders such as citizens, investors, government officials, elected member, municipality workers. It is important to mention that the hazards which have been identified in this study have been taken from stakeholders’ perspective and not from scientific findings. For instance, Momani and Fadil (2010) discussed the last flood disaster which occurred in Jeddah City in 25th of November 2009 which caused more than 121 fatalities and billions of dollars in losses in addition to around 20,000 sheltered families which cause a shift in public policy to deal with natural disasters in Saudi Arabia. In this study natural causes and human errors and lack of clear public policy to deal with natural disasters were the most contributors to human and monetary losses due to the flood disaster. Since such natural and man-made disasters need to have experts involvement in a given hazard more than stakeholders involvement. There are different models which have been developed to measure potential consequences from a given hazard such as ECM model and the Integrated Framework for Earthquake Consequences Management which were developed by Naill Momani (2009, 2012 respectively). These models could be used along with our suggested model in order to have better understanding of natural



and man-made hazards for the study area which enable rational decision making to prevent and/or reduce human and monetary losses.

Survey Results and Analysis The purpose of this paper is to help Jeddah City Council in prioritizing their plans and

activities to solve community raised problems which will maximize utilizing the city resources. Decision making priorities based on risk significance index will show stakeholder that decision made by the City Council consider their risk significance perspective. The result of the ranking is presented in Table (4) for the hazards which get score more than 0.17. For other risk see Appendix A. Table (4):Hazards ranking for city of Jeddah

Key Hazards Acronyms Risk Index Score

The spread of random buildings in the region SRBR 0.28

Real estate market control by expatriate RMCE 0.25

Increase in traffic accidents ITA 0.25

The presence of factories and workshops in the residential area PFWR 0.24

Abandoned buildings and backyard for a long time ABLT 0.23

Labor housing in the neighborhood PSV 0.23

Proliferation of street vendors LSV 0.23

Lack of sewerage network LSN 0.23

Disparity in the prices of goods DPG 0.22

Accumulation of rain water ARW 0.22

Rash groundwater RG 0.22

Traffic congestion TC 0.22

Low level of cleanliness of restaurants and shops LCRS 0.22

Accumulation of household waste AHW 0.21

Cartons and paper stored in an abandoned backyard CPSB 0.21

Streets pavement SP 0.21

Emptying sanitation in riverbed ESR 0.20

The presence of damaged and abandoned vehicles PDAV 0.20

Asphalting the streets is not good ASG 0.20

Compensation owning property is a fair COPF 0.20

Worn out asphalt layers WAL 0.20

Waste was randomly burned WRB 0.19

Spread the smell of sewage SSS 0.19

The absence of a signal light at the intersections ASLI 0.19

Car wash in the informal neighborhoods CWIN 0.19

Coordination is not good for government projects in the neighborhood CGPN 0.19

The spread of mosquitoes SM 0.19



Indiscriminate burning of tires IBT 0.19

Loop vegetables in neighborhoods LVN 0.18

Non-asphalt paving roads NPR 0.18

Rehabilitation of public parks RPP 0.18

Landfill waste gases in the region LWGR 0.18

The lack of lighting columns LLC 0.18

Lack of accountability in the errors of the engineering projects LAEP 0.18

Irregular burning of the waste IBW 0.17

The spread of dust crushers SDC 0.17

The absence of sufficient schools ASS 0.17

Riverbed is not clean RC 0.17

Illegal Crossing streets by pedestrians ICSP 0.17

Disable projects from building permits delay DPD 0.17

Not to expand in the community centers of neighborhoods ECN 0.17

Road accidents in the neighborhood RAN 0.17

Discussion Jeddah is of the earliest historical cities and some believe that the tomb of Eve is there.

Jeddah has gained its position through the ages from its geographical location as a gateway to the holy places Mecca and Madina. After that Jeddah lives in the process of urbanization since 1980, starting with area surrounded with a wall that has two doors on the Mecca and the other from the sea area with approximately one square kilometer. Having an airport for the city was a sign for an urbanization for any modern city that is why an airport was established in the north of Jeddah city far from the construction, which contributed to the expansion of the city of Jeddah through planning and the spread of random buildings in the region (SRBR) in areas between the airport and the old city. According to the first local urban planning of the city of Jeddah in 1962 the area of Jeddah was 700 km2 and in another urban plan in 2006 the area became about 2350 km2 with noting that the total area of Jeddah is 5000 km2 with population of more than three and a half million people in 2012.

The organization within the urban wall and outside the wall were considered areas not belonging to the organization and planning was so spontaneous, which led to the emergence of SRBR with a total of more than 53 areas out of about the 119 neighborhood where it is possible that a residential neighborhood contains more than one region SRBR i.e. not subject to the regulation of urban planning worsening the problem of its proliferation as shown in the results of the study. Due to the presence of SRBR and the spontaneous planning to the city of Jeddah there is no adequate way and safe corridors for vehicles and pedestrians. Moreover, there is a lack of public transport for instance in a workshop for the province it became clear that private transport accounts for 96% of the total transport in the city, noted that international standards are very different given that the rest of the cities which are similar to the city of Jeddah has public transport such as trains and mass transit, which led to traffic jams and increase in traffic accidents. Additionally, large proportion of young people want to own a private car other than



the family car, especially down the cost of oil and coincided with the lack of traffic awareness and commitment transport systems contributed to the increase of traffic accidents and the worsening of the crisis.

As for the problem of Abandoned buildings and backyard for a long time it was due to providing better services in new neighborhoods and the desire to get out of the crowded downtown area with having the purchasing power that are looking for what is trendy and sophisticated contributed to the migration from the old quarters to new neighborhoods, making navigation residential from region to region is one of the unwanted habits. This resulted in the migration of historical and old areas, without maintenance and attention and their migration to the new ones. The lack of historical building system in place for the maintenance of abandoned buildings has contributed to the spread of this phenomenon, which resulted in security problems and areas harboring random segments of illegal workers violating homeland security issues.

SRBR and the migration of old buildings by the citizens and the openness of the Saudi society due to visitors to the holy places and an abundance of purchasing power in addition to the high rate of per capita income contributed to the proliferation of street vendors who are mostly have no valid visas to the country. Such people have no other means of subsistence but only those simple actions to create daily income in the absence of control and cheap prices submitted by them due to the absence of costs in the establishment of shops, which contributed to the popularity and spread of street vendors in the revival of Jeddah. Moreover, the absence of cooperative societies that serve the areas of Jeddah which could provide goods the same as what the street vendors could provide at a competitive prices worsen this hazard issue. Finally, the city of Jeddah is large and it is difficult to navigate easily to get what is provided by the vendors from the daily requirement of basic materials expanded the hazard to the entire city. The different values of the lease between the different areas of the city of Jeddah in addition to the cost of transport contributed to the varying prices of goods in the city of Jeddah as mentioned earlier. The residents of the city of Jeddah began to be affected by the modern style of living, making merchant offers item a different way from traditional methods to meet the needs of the consumer segment with high-income rates differ from those in popular areas knowing that the price disparity is a feature of trade in the world. Note that it is possible for the Society for the Protection of Consumer stabilize the prices of basic commodities in different regions through the establishment of cooperative societies as an alternative to commercial markets with high profitability.

That the increase in immigration to the city of Jeddah from the Kingdom and abroad to seek livelihood or closer to the holy places which has increased the need to patch population and where the area of Jeddah, did not exceed square kilometers, as we mentioned earlier and is bordered by mountains to the east and the sea from the West, which facilitated the process of expansion towards the north and west through bridge the large areas of the sea affected by the high water table in addition to the lack of an integrated network of sanitation and the use of cesspits has increased the high water table and cesspits leakage in some areas. To solve the problem of high water table, the government established a company specializing in water to



draw water from some areas to reduce the level of groundwater and contribute to solving the problem of rash groundwater.

The spread of unauthorized employment that are not subject to health screening and surveillance in addition to the lack of sewerage network and the accumulation of waste in the neighborhoods and the lack of awareness of environmental risks has contributed to creating an unhealthy environment that made low level of cleanliness of restaurants and shops. Note that there are institutions concerned with the health of the environment, but are disabled for lack of sufficient human resources to cover more than 2350 square kilometers spread over the coastal strip which is full of restaurants, markets and street vendors. The migration of the old places and the spread of SRBR and the proliferation of street vendors who wish to collect cartons for recycling to benefit from it through the store and re-sale led to the emergence of the focus of the risk of fire and the spread of rodents in abandoned neighborhoods. The lack of a sewage network in the city of Jeddah, and the distance of residential landfill, and the lack of a sufficient number of wastewater treatment plants, and the weak control in a big city, as well as the lack of deterrent for individuals contributed to the disposal of such waste in public parks and places abandoned illegally, causing dangers to the environment.

The rise of underground water in the city of Jeddah and the absence of coordinating committees between stakeholders in the infrastructure to make the streets of the city of Jeddah, the delay of cleaning scene of excavations of third-party service led to the deterioration of asphalt surfaces in addition to the lack of commitment by contractors work the roads world class helped in creating this problem between the period and the other.

Acknowledgment We would like to acknowledge the financial and logistical support that was given from Jeddah Municipality which enabled us to conduct the seven workshops and suggest the given risk index for the city of Jeddah Appendix. A List of acronyms in order of importance

Key Hazards Acronyms

The spread of random buildings in the region SRBR

Real estate market control by expatriate RMCE

Increase in traffic accidents ITA

The presence of factories and workshops in the residential area PFWR

Abandoned buildings and backyard for a long time ABLT

Labor housing in the neighborhood PSV

Proliferation of street vendors LSV

Lack of sewerage network LSN

Disparity in the prices of goods DPG

Accumulation of rain water ARW

Rash groundwater RG

Traffic congestion TC



Low level of cleanliness of restaurants and shops LCRS

Accumulation of household waste AHW

Cartons and paper stored in an abandoned backyard CPSB

Streets pavement SP

Emptying sanitation in riverbed ESR

The presence of damaged and abandoned vehicles PDAV

Asphalting the streets is not good ASG

Compensation owning property is a fair COPF

Worn out asphalt layers WAL

Waste was randomly burned WRB

Spread the smell of sewage SSS

The absence of a signal light at the intersections ASLI

Car wash in the informal neighborhoods CWIN

Coordination is not good for government projects in the neighborhood CGPN

The spread of mosquitoes SM

Indiscriminate burning of tires IBT

Loop vegetables in neighborhoods LVN

Non-asphalt paving roads NPR

Rehabilitation of public parks RPP

Landfill waste gases in the region LWGR

The lack of lighting columns LLC

Lack of accountability in the errors of the engineering projects LAEP

Irregular burning of the waste IBW

The spread of dust crushers SDC

The absence of sufficient schools ASS

Riverbed is not clean RC

Illegal Crossing streets by pedestrians ICSP

Disable projects from building permits delay DPD

Not to expand in the community centers of neighborhoods ECN

Road accidents in the neighborhood RAN

The lack of vehicles for street sweeping LVS

The lack of literary clubs LLC

Accumulation of abandoned remnants AAR

Existing of household waste recycling plant EHWR

High water table HWT

Prevalence rodents PR

Prevalence of asthma in the region PAR

A crusher in the region CR



Lighting poles not working LPW

The presence of damaged and abandoned vehicles PDAV

Environmental risk from the desalination plant ERDP

Weak presence of security and traffic in the neighborhood WSTN

Communications towers and its health effects CTHE

Proliferation of stray dogs PSD

Lack of sanitation LS

The presence of high voltage cables PHVC

Required to increase the No. of permitted stories RIPS

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improving decision making by using hazard analysis model ... · jeddah is characterized as a main...

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