Improving Forecast Accuracy

ONUR SEZGIN DEMAND AND PROCESS MANAGER ABBOTT LABORATORIES - EPD TURKEY

BIGGEST CONTRIBUTORS

TO ERROR

FOCUS ON

Find out

WHAT

to improve

Repeat your

analysis

every month!

Fin

d o

ut

wh

at

to

im

pro

ve

Do you see

a pattern?

DO NOT SETTLE EASILY

ANALYZE MORE

Always keep

an eye on

TRENDS

Is the error coming from a

particular forecaster?

Let them know

over a coffee

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Build a Forecast

Waterfall!

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WITH YOUR POSITIVE PERSISTENCE

OVERCOME RESISTANCE

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PEOPLE TEND TO MAKE EXCUSES

But my in market

sales forecast

accuracy is good.

My product is sold more to

compensate for other

product, it is not my fault.

But we have to deliver the

plan, so we have to input

this forecast.

I do not have time

to compile a better

forecast.

Communicate

more frequently

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Create

Accountability

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FORECAST ACCURACY

MEASURE

IN MARKET

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MAKE TIME FOR THEM

RCA & CAP

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CAP should

be Almost Always

Related to a

Change in the Forecast

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BALANCE

IM & TM IN MARKET AND TO MARKET

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Reconcile More Frequently with Customers

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have

targets

for

in market

inventory levels

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Sales and

Marketing

forecasts

in market

Channel

Mngment

forecasts

to market

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DEVELOP ENABLING

TOOLS AND KEEP IMPROVING

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Do not try to do

improvements on your own

What do forecasters do

every month to update

their forecast?

PREVIOUS SITUATION

• 6 Product Managers, 6 Different Forecasting Files

• No single data source:

To MKT

Sales from a PDF BPCS

Report

In MKT Sales from

an SFE Report

FOC realization from a CS

Report

Previous forecast from

previous forecasting file

PLAN and LBE data from a Finance File

PREVIOUS SITUATION

• Unreliable In Market inventory

• Complicated FOC Realization Tracking

• No systematical archiving

• Too Long Preparation and Setup needed before Demand Review

• Previous Forecast overwritten

CURRENT SITUATION

• Frequently Reconciled In Market inventory

• Speeded up FOC process

• Archiving standardized in the shared folder

• Most of the necessary data for forecasting is consolidated by DM and circulated

• All 8 Line ADS Elements are incooperated with Plan, LBE, Previous ADS and ADS Dimensions

• Demand Manager File and PM File Communication is achieved

SOME KEY POINTS

• Keep Lag 3 visible

• Simulate KPI realization in the forecasting tool

• Make Frozen Period visible and known

• Use graphs to analyze trends and variances versus plan and previous forecast

• Create easy comparison vs. benchmarks

• Automated Summary Reports for fast reviews

FOLLOW UP FINE TUNE

WITHIN THE MONTH

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Estimate Month End

In MKT Sales Within the Month

Track

Forecast

Accuracy

Within the Month

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So...

Results?

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Forecast Accuracy

SP&E

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Onur Sezgin ABBOTT LABORATORIES

EPD TURKEY DEMAND AND PROCESS

MANAGER Thank you