improving risk communication betty hearn morrow may 19, 2010 marriott city center salt lake city,...
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IMPROVING RISK IMPROVING RISK COMMUNICATIONCOMMUNICATION
BETTY HEARN MORROWBETTY HEARN MORROW
MAY 19, 2010MAY 19, 2010
MARRIOTT CITY CENTERMARRIOTT CITY CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAHSALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
SOCIAL APPLICATIONS FOR ENHANCED SOCIAL APPLICATIONS FOR ENHANCED READINESS (SAFER) PROGRAM – READINESS (SAFER) PROGRAM – WESTERN REGION CONFERENCEWESTERN REGION CONFERENCE
What makes people What makes people decide to respond to decide to respond to a warning message?a warning message?
Believe it is realBelieve it is real
Fear for personal safetyFear for personal safety
Fear for safety of loved onesFear for safety of loved ones
Knowledge about how to respondKnowledge about how to respond
Resources to respondResources to respond
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LEVEL OF RISK IS UNACCEPTABLE AND LEVEL OF RISK IS UNACCEPTABLE AND THEY CAN DO SOMETHING TO REDUCE ITTHEY CAN DO SOMETHING TO REDUCE IT
What makes people What makes people not respond to a not respond to a warning message?warning message?
Didn’t hear itDidn’t hear it
Didn’t believe itDidn’t believe it
Didn’t understand itDidn’t understand it
Didn’t think it pertained to themDidn’t think it pertained to them
Didn’t know what to doDidn’t know what to do
Weren’t able to do itWeren’t able to do it
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238 Deaths 238 Deaths
Did they understand the Did they understand the forecast?forecast?
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COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
Why?Why?Surge forecast not emphasized enough?Surge forecast not emphasized enough?
Too much emphasis on wind?Too much emphasis on wind?
Lack of understanding of surge potential?Lack of understanding of surge potential?
Disbelief?Disbelief?
Lack of experience?Lack of experience?
False experience?False experience?
Didn’t think it applied to them?Didn’t think it applied to them?
??
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Katrina Katrina Surge Surge
Message Message LostLost
How can the level of risk How can the level of risk be be communicated to communicated to promote promote appropriate appropriate action?action?
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Prepare?
Shelter in Place?
Evacuate?
NOAA Coastal Services NOAA Coastal Services CenterCenterRISK COMMUNICATION RISK COMMUNICATION PROJECTPROJECT
Literature ReviewLiterature Review
Best Practices InterviewsBest Practices Interviews
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Complex conceptComplex concept
difficult to communicate difficult to communicate
in ways that are convincing in ways that are convincing
and lead to good decisions and lead to good decisions
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RISK:RISK:
Hurricane Ike and GalvestonHurricane Ike and Galveston
Hurricane FloydHurricane Floyd
Concept of Risk:Concept of Risk:Social ConstructionSocial Construction
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KnowledgeKnowledge is important, is important,
but we weigh evidence but we weigh evidence
from from experienceexperience moremore
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Perceived Risk ≠ Perceived Risk ≠ Hazard x Exposure x ProbabilityHazard x Exposure x Probability
Fear often does not Fear often does not
reflect object reality reflect object reality
as defined by as defined by expertsexperts
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““the risks that kill you are not necessarily the the risks that kill you are not necessarily the risks that anger and frighten you”risks that anger and frighten you”
Peter Peter SandmanSandman
Risk = Hazards + OutrageRisk = Hazards + Outrage
Perception is everything!
Perception is everything!
Perceived risk Perceived risk is the same as real riskis the same as real risk
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Several theories Several theories attempt to explain attempt to explain how risk perceptions how risk perceptions are developed:are developed:
Psychometric ModelsPsychometric Models
Cultural Risk TheoryCultural Risk Theory
Social AmplificationSocial Amplification
Mental ModelsMental Models
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Coping with a Coping with a Complex Complex World…World…
Try to Find PatternsTry to Find Patterns
““What do I know that will What do I know that will help me understand this?”help me understand this?”
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Coping with a Coping with a Complex Complex World…World…
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Note: Even forecasters use heuristics - Doswell III, Charles A. (2004) Weather Forecasting by Humans – Heuristics and Decision Making. Weather and Forecasting 19:1115-1126
Use Heuristics (short cuts) such as:Use Heuristics (short cuts) such as:
Optimism BiasOptimism Bias““Won’t happen to me”Won’t happen to me”
Availability Availability ““Hasn’t happened to Hasn’t happened to
me”me”
Weighing the Weighing the chances…chances…
Decisions made about risk Decisions made about risk
are largely insensitive to are largely insensitive to
changes in probabilitychanges in probability
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Emotions play a major roleEmotions play a major role
What Are the Myths?What Are the Myths?
What incorrect messages are out What incorrect messages are out there?there?
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Keep a window open during hurricanes, tornadoes..
Keep a window open during hurricanes, tornadoes..
Highway underpasses offer good
Highway underpasses offer good
refuge from tornadoesrefuge from tornadoes
Tornadoes don’t cross rivers
Tornadoes don’t cross rivers
Lightning never strikes the
Lightning never strikes the
same place twice
same place twice
Others?Others?
New York doesn’t get hurricanesNew York doesn’t get hurricanes
If the water starts rising, I’ll just leaveIf the water starts rising, I’ll just leave
First Acknowledge Their Current ViewpointFirst Acknowledge Their Current Viewpoint
““When talking to people who are When talking to people who are misinformed, there’s a two-step process misinformed, there’s a two-step process for reeducating them. for reeducating them.
Step 1 is to Step 1 is to validatevalidate that it’s reasonable that it’s reasonable to think that. to think that.
And then on step 2, And then on step 2, take them on a take them on a journeyjourney from their current opinion to the from their current opinion to the one you want them to hold.”one you want them to hold.”
Peter SandmanPeter Sandman
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Just Because It Just Because It CAN Happen, CAN Happen,
Doesn’t Mean it WILL Doesn’t Mean it WILL ……
USUALLY a False AlarmUSUALLY a False Alarm
Creates Complacency Creates Complacency
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In Fact, It Usually Doesn’t!In Fact, It Usually Doesn’t!
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What Message Did That Give?What Message Did That Give?
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What Factors Tend toWhat Factors Tend toMake Risk Unacceptable?Make Risk Unacceptable?
RARE or UnfamiliarRARE or Unfamiliar
EVENTEVENT vs. diffused over timevs. diffused over time
IMPOSED vs. voluntaryIMPOSED vs. voluntary
Not under individual’s controlNot under individual’s control
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What Makes Risk What Makes Risk Unacceptable?Unacceptable?
Unfairly distributedUnfairly distributed
Affects childrenAffects children
Man-made hazard vs. natural Man-made hazard vs. natural hazardhazard
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RISK COMMUNICATION MODELRISK COMMUNICATION MODEL
ABILITY TO UNDERSTAND CAPACITY TO ACTABILITY TO UNDERSTAND CAPACITY TO ACT
INVOLVEMENTINVOLVEMENT DESIRE FOR DESIRE FOR
OR OR INTEREST INFORMATION INTEREST INFORMATION
RELEVANCE TO STAKEHOLDER INTENTION TO ACTRELEVANCE TO STAKEHOLDER INTENTION TO ACT
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MESSAGE EVALUATIONMESSAGE EVALUATIONFACTORSFACTORS
MESSAGE EFFECTSMESSAGE EFFECTSFACTORSFACTORS
Adapted from Earle, T.C. and G. Cvetkovich. 1990. “The effects of involvement, relevance and ability on risk communication effectiveness. Pp. 271-89 in Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North Holland: Elsevier Science.
Effective risk communication requires in-depth knowledge
about the audience
Effective risk communication requires in-depth knowledge
about the audience
ValuesValues
NeedsNeeds
Interests Interests
ExperiencesExperiences
BarriersBarriers
Social NormsSocial Norms
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NEED TO UNDERSTAND CONTEXTNEED TO UNDERSTAND CONTEXT
Conditions Under Which Decisions Are MadeConditions Under Which Decisions Are Made
How They Vary Among GroupsHow They Vary Among Groups
Weather-Related Risk May Be Least of Their Weather-Related Risk May Be Least of Their WorriesWorries
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Community InvolvementCommunity InvolvementQuantitative surveysQuantitative surveysQualitative focus groupsQualitative focus groupsObservationsObservations
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Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Tool
County Snapshots
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Coastal Inundation ToolkitCoastal Inundation Toolkit
CanVis Visualization Software
NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource
www.csc.noaa.gov/inundation
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PersonalizePersonalizeThe MessageThe Message
Many Messages TargetedTo Specific Groups
Many Messages TargetedTo Specific Groups
“To reach and influence audiences effectively, campaigns must be targeted on the basis of audiences’ interests, values, and current behavioral patterns.” Edward Maibach
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Homeowners
Renters
Elderly
Families with children
Cultural groups
Youth
Multiple MessagesMultiple MessagesMultiple ChannelsMultiple Channels
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Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf
Use of Technologies Survey Use of Technologies Survey Charleston, SC (2008)Charleston, SC (2008)
• 70% have cell phones70% have cell phones• 67% over age 65 have cell phones67% over age 65 have cell phones• 60% said they would use cell phone to contact family 60% said they would use cell phone to contact family
in emergencyin emergency• 56% under age 29 use texting56% under age 29 use texting• 6% over 65 used texting6% over 65 used texting
Multiple MessagesMultiple MessagesMultiple ChannelsMultiple Channels
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Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf
Use of Technologies SurveyUse of Technologies SurveyCharleston, SC (2008)Charleston, SC (2008)
• 60% have computers in home (NSD related to age)60% have computers in home (NSD related to age)• 64% whites have computers in home64% whites have computers in home• 52% blacks have computers in home52% blacks have computers in home• 31% with income less than $20,000 know how to use 31% with income less than $20,000 know how to use
a computera computer• 23% have NOAA weather radio23% have NOAA weather radio
RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIESSTRATEGIES
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High
Low
Low High
Source: Peter Sandman
OutrageManagement
CrisisCommunication
PrecautionAdvocacy
Know your audienceKnow your audience
Personalize the messagePersonalize the message
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NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources:NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources:
• Mapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census DataMapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census Data
• Introduction to Conducting Focus GroupsIntroduction to Conducting Focus Groups
• Introduction to Survey Design & DeliveryIntroduction to Survey Design & Delivery
Appeal to their values, needs, social normsAppeal to their values, needs, social norms
Appeal to emotions, including fearAppeal to emotions, including fear
Have clear, concise, short messageHave clear, concise, short message
Use concrete examplesUse concrete examples
Use trusted messengersUse trusted messengers
Provide an action they can doProvide an action they can do
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Some People Some People Are Risk Are Risk TakersTakers
GamblersGamblers
Thrill SeekersThrill Seekers
YouthYouth
Men!Men!
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Morrow, Betty Hearn. 2009. Improving Coastal Risk Communication: Guidance from the Literature. Report prepared for NOAA’s Coastal Service Center, Charleston, SC. Available at: www.csc.noaa.gov/Risk_Behavior_&_Communication_Report.pdf.
Other NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources:
• Mapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census Data• Introduction to Conducting Focus Groups• Introduction to Survey Design & Delivery• Introduction to Stakeholder Participation• Stakeholder Engagement Strategies for Participatory Mapping
CanVis Visualization Software, NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource. Available at: www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/inundation.
McKenzie-Mohr, Doug. Fostering Sustainable Behavior : Community-Based Social Marketing. Available at: www.cbsm.com
Earle, T.C. and G. Cvetkovich. 1990. “The Effects Of Involvement, Relevance And Ability On Risk Communication Effectiveness.” Pp. 271-89 in Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North Holland: Elsevier Science.
Sandman, Peter. Risk = Hazard + Outrage. www.psandman.com/index.htm
Mailbach, Edward C. and Roxanne Louiselle Parrott (eds). 1995. Designing Health Messages: Approaches from Communication Theory and Public Health Practice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Downloadable at: www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf.
RISK COMMUNICATION RESOURCES
Betty Morrow [email protected]