In a Context of Discontinuity

Guiding Principles

FROM WHENCE …

You can cause a discontinuity …

CHANGE HAPPENS!

Competition • Bon Aqua upset the

comfortable world of Voltic and Nsu with superior marketing

Technological • CONSHIP has used

technology that allows customers see the progress of their jobs in real-time to build stronger customer bonds

Business model • Moving parcel post

went from the confines of Ghana Post to the bustle of transport hubs

FROM WHENCE …

… or it can happen to you

THE ONLY CONSTANT IN LIFE …

What crisis has your business faced in the last five years?

Have you encountered any major shifts in how you do business as a result?

Have you changed the sectors/segments in which you operate?

SUDDENLY …

STRATEGIC INFLECTION POINTSThe Fundamentals Change New Horizons OR The End

The impact of changing rules creates new opportunity to rise and signals the beginning of the end

MACRO CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL/LOCAL ECONOMIESNation-states To Networks As The Source Of Economic Power• Intra-ECOWAS trade stands at 31.5% (2011, ILO)

Traditions To Options As The Basis For Individual Behaviour • Mass-individualism

Export-led To Consumer Driven Economies• Fuelled By An Emerging Middle Class With

New Expectations

Government-controlled To Market-driven Economies• A New Model Of Economic Co-operation

And Co-ordination

Rural/Farm To Urban/Service Economy• The Locus Of New Opportunities

Labour-intensive To High-technology• The Basis For Competition/Job Creation

From Male Dominance To The Emergence Of Women• Voters, Workers, And Consumers

From West To East• As The Axis Of The Global Economy

IN THE SHORT-TERM: REVIEW YOUR COMPANY STRATEGY

Have the factors that informed the strategy

changed? If so what will be the impact?

Have any new factors emerged that did not exist

or were not known?

Does the current strategy and key actions address the

issues of the current operating environment and

what you see emerging?

Is the strategy robust enough to accommodate

short term plans and actions while building for

future growth?

What needs to change immediately?

What should the new focus be?

YOU ARE NOT ALONE!

Traditional business models are being shaken apart by

Rapidly changing consumer habitsNew business models and ideas New competitive environment

YOUR RESPONSIBILITY IS TO …

“… [create] the conditions for doing business in a

modern, competitive way in a global economic system”

“… guide your business … and place it in a position

where it can prosper in the new order.”

CHANGE IN GHANA …

PARADIGM FORCES

Substitutes

Competitors

Potential Competitors

Options

Consumers

Complimentary Products

Habits

Suppliers

Supply Chain

MASTERING PARADIGMS

SUBSTITUTES:

SUBSTITUTES: KOKO KING

Strategic PartnershipsComplimentary Dispensing

technology Dry Foods Technology School-feeding Programme

Dynamise SalesChannel Marketing:

VendorsCategory Marketing:

Breakfast & Morei-Sales:

Order Online

LoyaltyRewards Feedback Personalise Service

COMPETITION:

COMPETITION: CHALLENGE BOOKSHOP

Redefine your business

founders [] journeyed to difficult places to share the Gospel [] to glorify God by planting, strengthening, and partnering with churches around the world

Customised solutionsMobile Cinema

Mobile Bookshops

Local Follow up

Prison Ministry

and Chaplaincy

Young Searchers League

Mail Box Club

Conferences

Counselling Services

Specialisation For the past 50 plus years, … the leading name in the distribution of Christian literature in Ghana and offers the

best in Christian reading.

CONSUMERS:(Non-interest earning) e-money use is growing

Modern Trade share of retail spending doubled 26% of consumer plan to save

More people using the web to buy and sell

2050: Slightly more men; fewer new children Job prospects flat to negative

CONSUMERS: AQUAFRESH LTD

Align for Changing Attitudes

What better option […] to keep you at your best […]?

Sync with Changing Habits and Behaviour“offering high value for money” “meet your expectations for great taste, convenience,

nutrition and refreshment - every time”

Strategy RelevanceHealthy drink All occasions Convenient, take-along package

SUPPLIERS:

Strategic RelationshipsCommon Vision For

The Relationship

Disclosure Of Business

DriversContinuous

Improvement

Clearly Defined Roles &

Responsibilities

Real Metrics To Drive

Behaviour

Anticipating Business Needs

Strategic ImportanceVolatile Markets Merger & Acquisition

Expansion Of Supplier Value-added Services

ON THE CUSP AND UNAWAREBUILDING GREATNESS AND AVOIDING THE DESCENT INTO IRRELEVANCE

THE NATURE OF CHANGE

FIRST, HARDER TO DETECT BUT EASIER TO CONTROL …

THE HORIZONS THAT INFORM CHANGE

TIME

LEVE

L OF

VIA

BILIT

Y & R

ELEV

ANCE

SOME EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES Exploring the “Uncertain” opportunities

CREATING THE OPPORTUNITIES GLOBAL TRENDS, FUTURE EXPECTATIONS

AND THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY

THE NATURE OF CHANGE

THEN, EASIER TO OBSERVE BUT HARDER TO EXPLOIT

THE HORIZONS THAT INFORM CHANGE

TIME

LEVE

L OF

VIA

BILIT

Y & R

ELEV

ANCE

THE OPPORTUNITIES WE HAVE NOW Using Core Capabilities

SOME EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES Exploring the “Uncertain” opportunities

CREATING THE OPPORTUNITIES Global trends, future expectations and the

impact of technology

BUILDING GREATNESS AND AVOIDING THE DESCENT INTO IRRELEVANCE THE FIVE STAGES

Stage 1Constructive DestructionProactively reconstruct the competitive contextHubris born out of success

Stage 2Barbarian EffectsMaking the competition irrelevant Undisciplined pursuit of more Stage 3

Strategic InflectionFailure to see the perils of a dynamic Environment Denial of risks & Peril

Stage 4Grasping for Salvation

Stage 5Capitulation to Irrelevance or death

There Comes A Time ...

Source: How the Mighty Fall – Jim Collins

CONSTRUCTIVE DESTRUCTION• What can help your organisation/sector/country

create success in the first place?

• RISK:“Great enterprises can become insulated by success … and lose sight of the true underlying factors that created success in the first place.”

• OPPORTUNITY: A healthy tension between current commitments and the fear of what is to come Proactively reconstruct the competitive context

BARBARIAN EFFECTS• How does your organisation/sector/Government

avoid the dilution of purpose-driven growth?

• RISK: “Companies may overreach by making undisciplined leaps into areas where they cannot be great or growing faster than their ability to fill key spots with capable people.”

• OPPORTUNITY: Focus on making the competition irrelevant Rigorous succession planning

STRATEGIC INFLECTION• What does your organisation/sector/Government do to

avoid a failure to see the perils of a dynamic environment?

• RISK: “Companies in stage 3 begin to discount or explain away disturbing data, blame outside forces, and take outsized risks without giving enough weight to the consequences.”

• OPPORTUNITY: Reasonable proof as input for risk-taking on the ‘next big thing’ Look inside for the cause of stagnation/decline; don’t just reorganise

Stage 1Constructive DestructionProactively reconstruct the competitive contextHubris born out of success

Stage 2Barbarian EffectsMaking the competition irrelevant Undisciplined pursuit of more Stage 3

Strategic InflectionFailure to see the perils of a dynamic Environment Denial of risks & Peril

Stage 4Grasping for Salvation

Stage 5Capitulation to Irrelevance or death

There Comes A Time ...

Source: How the Mighty Fall – Jim Collins

WELL-FOUNDED HOPE

"The path to recovery lies first and foremost in returning to sound management practices and

rigorous strategic thinking."

GRASPING FOR SALVATION• How would your organisation/sector/Government

address its turnaround?

• RISK:“Instead of getting back to the disciplines that made them great, companies take dramatic action, seeking a silver bullet solution.”

• OPPORTUNITY: Avoid the temptation of silver bullets Focus on progression with consistency

CAPITULATION TO IRRELEVANCE OR DEATH• What does your organisation/sector/Government

do

• RISK: The company surrenders or runs out of options and cash. Hope alone is not enough; you need resources.

• OPPORTUNITY: Reasonable proof as input for risk-taking on the ‘next big thing’ Look inside for the cause of stagnation/decline; don’t just reorganise

NEVER GIVE IN …• Never give up your core purpose.

• Be willing to change tactics• Never give up on the idea of building a great company.

• Be willing to kill failed business ideas, even those operations you've been in for a long time

• Never give up on the principles that define your culture• Be willing to evolve into an entirely different portfolio of activities, even to the point

of zero overlap with what you do today • Never give up on the discipline to create your own future.

• Be willing to embrace the inevitability of creative destruction• Never give up faith in the ability to prevail

• Be willing to embrace loss, to endure pain, to temporarily lose freedoms• Never--ever--give up on your core values.“

• Be willing to form alliances with former adversaries, to accept necessary compromise