in focus: what's next for the afghanistan's economy?

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Afghanistan is in transition toward taking over security responsibility for all of its provinces by 2014. The country will then face two main challenges that will affect economic activity and growth in a major way:

• the departure of foreign troops by 2014 coupled with an increase of Afghan national security spending;

• a gradual decline in overall donor support over the medium term with a larger share of remaining donor support possibly being channeled through the Afghan government’s budget.

In light of these two developments, it is expected that donor contribution to the Afghan GDP will drop to below 34 percent in FY 2013–14 and continue to shrink gradually. In its most optimistic scenario, the IMF foresees GDP growth slowing down to a rate of 4–6 percent annually starting in FY 2012–13. Even with the proposed development of the mining sector and introduction of a VAT system, real GDP growth in the medium term is expected to be as low as 2 percent1 —in other words an 8–10 percentage points drop fromtherelativelyrobustgrowthfiguresofpastyears(morethan10percentinpreviousyearsand8–10percentin2010–11)coupledwithonlymoderateinflation.

Sectors such as transport and construction, which are dependent on a military pres-ence, will be most affected by the withdrawal of foreign troops, and Afghanistan could suffer a severe economic depression when foreign troops leave in 2014.2 However, if the decline in aid is gradual and predictable, an economic crisis can be avoided. The Afghan government and the international community must ensure early planning and effec-tivefiscalsustainabilitymeasuresinordertoavoidaneconomicrecessionin2014.Aneconomic crisis in Afghanistan puts all security achievements at risk, at both the local and regional levels.

All of this underscores the importance of efforts to stimulate the economy, which will have an impact on both the domestic economy and Afghanistan’s economic interaction with other countries in the region.

1 IMF Executive Board Discussion report; a joint World Bank/IMF sustainability analy-sis; IMF Country Report No. 11/330 – November 2011.2 US Senate Foreign Relations Committee report, June 2011.

What’s Next for Afghanistan’s Economy?

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Mohammed Hawoub, 37, packs brooms to sell them at a Kabul

market. Hawoub manufactures his “good-quality” brooms with

material from Mazari Sarif, north of Afghanistan. The price

of one broom in the market is 50 Afganis (US$ 1)

(AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

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Economic growth largely externally driven

Above all, Afghanistan will have to manage a transition from an economy supported by the presence of foreign troops to a more self-sustaining economy. The Afghan government must orchestrate an economic tran-sition from a contract econo-my to a market economy.

The effects of the 2014 troop withdrawalaredifficulttopre-dict in great detail, but they are boundtobeverysignificant.While private consumption has been the primary driver of economic growth over the past half decade (22.1 percentage points of 22.5 of real growth in 2009–103 ), behind that consumption growth, the World Bank has noted, lies the “security economy” that generated demand for goods, services and equipment. (Also important is donor spending and large off-budget contribu-tions.4) Government spend-ing contributed a meager 3 percentage points GDP growth in 2009–10. Investment saw moderate growth of 4 percent-age points, again largely due to private investment in the security economy.

The tremendous challenge in the transition from a war/secu-rity sector–based economy to a “peace” economy is further aggravated by the fact that Af-ghanistan is highly aid depen-dent. According to the World

3 World Bank: Marco-economic and economic growth in South Asia, Recent Economic Growth in Afghanistan – Febru-ary 20114 Private consumption is mostly focused in services, particularly: Communications (45% annual growth), Finance & Insurance (27%) and Transport (22%), with Wholesale and Retail trade lagging at a marginal 4% growth.

Bank, foreign aid disburse-ments equaled 47 percent of GDP in 2008 and 2009. In that same period, private invest-ment only reached 8 percent of GDP. 5

The fear of ‘self-fulfilling prophesies’

Afghanistan expects the dual challenges of increased spend-ing and declining donor funds. While this scenario can lead to an economic crisis, the World Bank argues that “the impact of declining aid on economic growth will be less than might be expected.” An overem-phasis on the occurrence of an economic crisis in 2014 has strong negative impact on the economic activity in Afghanistan. Fear of a possible economic crisis in the future is alreadyaffectingtheconfi-dence of private businesses, investors and consumers in the local economy. Pessimis-tic expectations will nega-tivelyinfluencethebehaviorof economic agents and will validate the initial expectations of a crisis. Maintaining the

5 World Bank: Marco-economic and economic growth in South Asia, Recent Economic Growth in Afghanistan – Febru-ary 2011

confidenceofbusinessownersand consumers is crucial to stimulate economic growth until and beyond 2014.

Regional diversification in the Afghan economy

Every consideration of the economic potential of Afghani-stan and its development has to take into account regional imbalances across ethnic and political lines.

In general, the economic benefitsresultingfromthepresence of foreign troops are more substantial in the north-ern and western parts of the country than in the southern and eastern regions. Vari-ous factors contribute to this situation, which has resulted in accusations that the mostly Pashtun population living in the south and east of Afghani-stan are being marginalized. Any effort to achieve economic development and overall stability in Afghanistan will need to address these regional imbalances.

In a more narrow economic consideration, the northern provinces, mostly Tajik and Hazara areas, are home to a trade in precious stones

(especially from Badakhshan and Panjsher provinces), agriculture and related ac-tivities, trade and transit with Central Asia (especially with Turkmenistan), hydropower trade with Tajikistan through Kunduz province, and gas and oil imports from Turkmenistan through Jozjan province. The north has the largest potential in the country for multi-billion dollar mining. The transit trade potential is considerable, as is the potential for agricultural development.

The west of Afghanistan, mostly populated by Tajiks and Pashtun,profitsfromtrade,transit and investment ties to Iran, notably in Herat and neighboring provinces. Herat has by far the most developed industrial production in the country.6 Agriculture remains a major economic activity. The economic relationship with Iran will be without doubt of major importance for econom-ic development post-2014.

The mostly Pashtun-populated southern and eastern prov-inces of Afghanistan border Pakistan and Iran. Economic activity in the informal sector is particularly strong. The

6 Afghanistan Congres-sional Communication Hub, the New Strategic Security Initiative, March 2010

Source: The World Bank, 2011.


areas also depend in a major way on the war economy, notably the procurement needs of ISAF troops and respective transport business. In addition, trade and transit with Pakistan, notably through theKarachiport,constitutessignificanteconomic activity. This implies particular dependence on effective cross-border processing of transit, trade, and entry and exit procedures at the Karachi harbor. Economic activity is highly focused on some leading Pashtu tribes and families notably the Karzais, the Shairzais and the Noorzais. The south has rich mineral resources, particularly industrial metals and rare earth minerals.

Domestic Growth Potentials for the Afghan Economy

Agriculture

Afghanistan’s agricultural potential is very considerable. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has suggested that the country can become selfsufficientinfoodproductionsoon.7 Evenunderdifficultsecurityandoveralleconomic conditions, Afghanistan almost reachedselfsufficiencyinwheatproduc-tion in 2007.8 In 2009-10, agriculture contributed 7.3 percent to Afghanistan’s growth driven mainly by a good cereal harvest and strong livestock production.9 In the 1970’s before the Soviet invasion, Afghanistan produced 20 percent of the world’s raisins10 (compared to 3 percent at present11)andwasselfsufficientintheproduction of milk, meat and cereals. It

7 The United Nations Food and Agri-cultural Organizations, National Agricultural Development Framework, 2011.8 Afghanistan Research Newsletter, AREU, 2011.9 World Bank: Macroeconomic and economic growth in South Asia, Recent Economic Growth in Afghanistan – February 2011.10 The Afghan ministry of Agriculture quoted by The Global Partnership for Afghan-istan, and the Council on Foreign Relations; Nourishing Afghanistan’s Agricultural Sector, Greg Bruno, May 2009. 11 Global Agricultural Informa-tion Network, GAIN, Raisin Annual Report, 2011. http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/2011%20Raisin%20Annual%20_Kabul_Afghanistan_7-18-2011.pdf

wasasignificantexporterofanimalfiberand high value processed animal prod-ucts.

Experts point to the fact that Afghanistan has the potential of becoming the “bread basket” for the region with exports target-ing Pakistan, India and the Middle East,12 all of which face shortfalls in food produc-tion.13

At the same time, the development of the agricultural sector remains highly depen-dent on weather conditions. The drought of 2008 led to a major GDP drop in FY 2008–09 due to the losses in agriculture.

The development of agriculture as a major contributor for growth and employment in Afghanistan needs therefore to be care-fully considered in connection with irriga-tion for agriculture. Total irrigated area in the country prior to 1979 amounted to 3.2 million hectares, but in 2007 (a year with relatively high precipitation) only 1.8 mil-lion hectares were irrigated. Only 600,000 hectares of the areas irrigated prior to the Soviet invasion have so far been rehabili-tated. 14

While Afghanistan has developed a national water policy to address this issue, there are questions about its sustainabil-ity, notably relating to Afghanistan’s down-stream neighbors as well as domestic issues such as integrated water manage-ment and sustainable agriculture.

Mining

Mining is probably Afghanistan’s largest economicasset.Officialsourceshave

12 Quoting an expert of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, IRIN News, April 200813 A limited yet successful example of the potential of agricultural production in Afghanistan is the country’s pomegranate export that also underlines the relevance of (local) transport infrastructure in that regard:Doublingforthefirsttimein2008its pomegranate exports, the country was able to export, via its Kandahar airport, 15 tons of pomegranates to Dubai in 2010. Since the Kandahar airport management has established the conditions for the export of pomegranates, the airport’s monthly earning almost tripled from $50,000 USD to over $140,000 USD.14 World Bank, Project: Additional Financing for Emergency Irrigation Rehabili-tation, April 2009

Afghan miners work at the Karkar coal mine in Pul-i-Kumri, about 170km north of Kabul. The Karkar mine, which hires 280 workers, produces about 100 tonnes of coal a day. The salary for a miner ranges from $70 to $110 per month. (REUTERS/Ahmad Masood)

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estimated a wealth of $1 trillion in proven mineral resources and the potential for a further $3 trillion. Developing Afghani-stan’s mineral resources is considered Afghanistan’s gate to prosperity and economic growth.

Major Current Mining Agreements are:

• The Anyak Copper Tender: an award given to China for explo-ration and production of cop-per, a contract worth a mini-mum of $1.3 billion (location: Logar province);

• The Qara-Zaghan goldmine: The investment value is $71 million plus a 26 percent roy-alty to the Afghan government. The contract is very signifi-cant, not only for its financialvalue but also because it is supported by several leading investors—the United States, Turkey and Britain—and is intended to set an example to encourage foreign invest-ment in Afghanistan (location: Baghlan province).

Despite its huge potential, mining cur-rently represents a small contribution to economic growth in Afghanistan. In 2009–10 mining constituted 0.11 percent of GDP growth15. Mining is also capital-incentive and its impact on employment is limited.

For Afghanistan’s mining sector to create sustainable growth, it has to have linkages to other economic sectors (and sub-sectors).

Some examples of existing industries that could be supported to boost local industries link the large mining industry to smaller local businesses and increase local capital investment:

• Salt mines: It is estimated that 54,000 tons of salt, worth an estimated $21.6 million, is consumed in Afghanistan yearly. Salt can be obtained lo-cally and replace imports.

• Small scale mining of Gem-

15 World Bank: Macroeconomic and economic growth in South Asia, Recent Economic Growth in Afghanistan – February 2011

stones: current gemstones production is estimated at $2.8 million per year. If im-proved in production, cutting and finishing, the productioncan be raised exponentially to $300 million per year, accord-ing to USAID. However, this will require government interven-tion and good governance. The government has not yet for-malized laws and regulations that govern the majority of the mines, and the majority of the stones produced are sold in the informal sector. Private investment in this is sector is largely deterred because of unclear processes of mining allocations, fees and royalties. The market is also floodedwith fake stones and imita-tion stones, and most Afghan gemologists do not have the required capacity and equip-menttofightfakes.

Other

Construction material (gravel, sand, crushed stones): Under government-con-trolled production prices, the annual value of construction material production could increase from the present $55 million to over $90 million. It may also be possible to generate $1.8 million per year in royal-ties from this production, assuming a 2 percent royalty.

Fired Bricks: The construction of homes and the urban growth in Afghanistan will require very large amounts of bricks that canbelocallyproduced.Withspecificpricing and safety regulations, the govern-ment can rehabilitate coal mines and boost small-scale local production.Afghanistan’s Marble industry can be-come a major player given the right tech-nological and governance support. USAID reports that in 10 years the industry could be close to producing $700 million in exports, equal to more than 6 percent of current GDP. For example, Herat alone has a minimum of 20 marble factories and exports $3 million of marble. It is expected that the number of factories will grow, employ more people and export more than $10 million.

Economic Relations with Iran and Pakistan

Pakistan and Iran are the most relevant re-gional economic partners for Afghanistan, both in terms of connectivity and trade and investment proper. The economic relationship with both countries is also marked on the one side by the ethnic and languageaffinitiesbetweenPashtuninAf-ghanistan and Pakistan and on the other between Dari-speaking Hazaras and Tajiks whoareculturallyinfluencedbyIran.

In 2010–11, Pakistan had $598 million of exports to Afghanistan, second to China ($704 million) and ahead of Iran ($386 million). Afghan exports to Pakistan amounted to $151 million and exports to Iran were $32 million. Thus Afghani-stanhasalargetradedeficitwithbothcountries; Pakistan, $447million; and Iran, $354million in 2010–11.

Iran

Economic cooperation between Afghani-stanandIranhasintensifiedinrecentyears. Half of Iran’s $1 billion in exports to Afghanistan in 2011 came in the form of oil, and the country receives an estimated two-thirds of its electricity from Iran, along with massive private investment.16

While Pakistan remains the most relevant of all Afghanistan’s neighbors in terms of economic partnership, Iran is very actively trying to increase its economic relevance in Afghanistan. In 2008, Iran, Afghanistan and Tajikistan agreed to form the Eco-nomic Council of the Persian-Speaking Union.17 Iran also has encouraged Afghan businesses to relocate their international officesfromtheUnitedArabEmiratestoIran.

Possibly, the greatest potential for Iran to grow its economic relevance in Afghani-stan is by using the port of Chabahar instead of the Pakistani Karachi harbor as a major entry and exit point for Afghan goods and goods destined for Afghani-stan. In May 2012, the governments of Iran and Afghanistan inked a deal securing Af-ghanistan’s access to the newly expanded

16 http://www2.canada.com/topics/news/story.html?id=616652417 http://www.understandingwar.org/iran-and-afghanistan


facility.18

Since January 2003, Afghan businesses have been able to use the Iranian port of Chabahar with a 90 percent discount on customs and port fees for non-oil goods and a 50 percent discount on warehouse charges, as well as transit rights on Iranian roads for Afghan trucks.19 Iran has also upgraded a tax-free trade route linking Chabahar, located at the southern end of the Sistan via Balochstan prov-ince, near the Oman Sea, to the southwestern border post of Malik in Afghanistan, and to Kandahar and Kabul. The road shortens the distance from the Persian Gulf to Afghanistan by 700 kilometers, and can sig-nificantlydiminishtheimpor-tance of the Karachi-Kandahar road, which is Afghanistan’s traditional roadway to interna-tional waters.20

In addition, a portion of the Afghan transit trade has shifted to Iran’s Bandar Abbas port from the Pakistani port of Karachi because of constant delays in the implementation of the Afghan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA). The agreement took force on June 12, 2011, but complica-tions in clearance and trans-portation of cargo are making Bandar Abbas increasingly the preferred route for cargo originating in or destined for Afghanistan.21 22

Iran’s economic interests have

18 http://tolonews.com/en/business/6097-iran-opens-chabahar-port-to-afghan-traders19 http://www.sais-jhu.edu/sebin/g/a/Pappas%20Af-ghan%20Policy%20Paper%20v5.1.pdf20 Ibid.21 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2011/06/166078.htm22 http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=42524&Cat=3&dt=4/20/2011

been particularly noticeable in the Herat region. Equally, most of Iran’s pledged reconstruc-tion assistance, estimated at $660 million, is in Herat.23 Iran’s investments in the Herat region involve infrastructure projects, road and bridge construction, education, agri-culture, power generation and telecommunication projects.24 25 26

While Afghan businesses are often not able to challenge their Iranian competitors leading to protests against “price dumping” and calls for higher import tariffs27, it is clear that the role of Iran in achieving an acceptable level of growth and productivity in Afghanistan post 2014 will be very important. Given the relatively successful economic performance of Afghanistan’s Western provinces - the eco-nomic importance of Iran to Afghanistan will increase after the 2014 troop withdrawal.

Pakistan

Pakistan remains of all Afghan-istan’s neighbors the most relevant in terms of economic relations. Pakistani exports to Afghanistan include basic food supplies such as rice, cooking oil, sugar and dairy products;

23 http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-afghani-stan24 Iran has helped rebuild Afghanistan’s radio and television infrastructure and has increased its own radio and television programs in Dari. The Iranian state telecommunica-tions company began provid-ing Internet transit services in Afghanistan and Iraq in 2010, acting as a carrier for both com-mercialandgovernmenttraffic.25 Page 251 of “Iran’s Policy Towards Afghanistan,” 2006, Middle East Journal. 26 http://www.renesys.com/blog/2010/09/iran-ex-porting-the-internet.shtml 27 http://www.afghani-stan-today.org/article/?id=111

construction materials; and fertilizer. Pakistan is also an important exporter of pharma-ceuticals to Afghanistan.

Afghan exports to Pakistan are typical of Afghanistan’s current spectrum of interests: fruits and vegetables, raw cotton and precious metals. The volume of bilateral trade has increased from $400 million in 2001 to $2.5 billion in 2011. Pakistan is targeting a further increase of up to $5 billion by 2015.

Afghanistan’s transit trade interests with India and Paki-stan’s interest in reaching the Central Asian markets domi-nate the bilateral trade agenda. On both points, political obstacles and vested interests prevent trade from reaching its full potential. According to Pakistanifigures,thevolumeof transit trade between Af-ghanistan and Pakistan could reach $9 billion by 2015. The major Afghan concern regard-ing its transit trade through Pakistan is the implementation of its transit trade agreement with Pakistan with the goal of reaching the Indian market.

Afghan concerns center around the implementation of an existing bilateral agree-ment and other regulations. Currently, Afghan cargo often

experiences delays in the harbor at Karachi. Ambigui-ties in the rules for handling open cargo (wheat, sugar) as well as container shipments from Pakistan to Afghanistan are major areas of concern. In that regard, shipments from Karachi harbor to Afghanistan fall victim to the troubled relationship between Afghani-stan and its ISAF partners, as demonstrated by the recent blockage of over 700 contain-ers destined for Afghanistan held up as ISAF’s supply lines through Pakistan. Trade was suspended after Pakistani troops were killed in a NATO attack on November 26, 2011.For Pakistan, an important concern is the establishment of a trade corridor to Tajiki-stan that would considerably shorten its trade route to Cen-tral Asia that currently goes through Turkmenistan.

As the World Bank noted in 2004, trade in the region, in particular between Afghani-stan and Pakistan, suffers from high transport and logistical costs. Continued outside assistance for infrastructure investments, progress on se-curity and removal of non-tariff barriersarerequiredtofulfillthe potential of this bilateral trade relationship.

Source: Economic Cooperation Organisation

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Major recommendations often voiced in that regard remain valid:

1. Improving security throughout the country both for persons and prop-erty;

2. Completing the main road reha-bilitation, extending telephone and other telecommunication systems and ensuring that reconstructed roads are maintained;

3. Streamlining of border crossing procedures;

4. Reestablishing formal financialand insurance systems including development of a effective clear-ance and settlement system;

5. Implementing a national customs and transit system;

6. Eliminating restrictions on direct transit;

7. Removing internal check posts and en-route inspections;

8. Increasing domestic trucking com-petition.

Other

Time and again, though not in a system-atic fashion, the issue of Reconstruction Zones (RZs) and Export Oriented Recon-struction Zones (ERZs) has been dis-cussed. It would appear timely to address the topic in a more systematic manner in particular with a view of strengthening the Afghan-Pakistani relationship.

The Geopolitical and Economic Relationship between Afghanistan, Pakistan and GCC Countries

Three out of Pakistan’s top ten trading partners are in the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) member states: the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. With regard to Afghanistan, the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia arealsoamongthemostsignificantGCCpartners on both economic (trade) and developmental levels.

GCC countries’ investments in the region are diverse, ranging from improving infra-structure and connectivity for trade routes to and from Central Asia to banking and

telecommunications.

Currently, negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement between GCC and Pakistan are underway.28 Whether a free trade zone with Afghanistan is an option remains to be explored. So far, the issue has not been discussed.

The U.A.E.’s investments in Pakistan in-clude banking, property and telecommu-nications. One of the most important new projects under construction in Pakistan is the$5billionKhalifaOilRefinery.

According to statistics published in the Pakistani press, Pakistanis have invested $2 billion in U.A.E. real estate and more than 6,000 Pakistani companies are now registered and operating in the U.A.E. Pak-istani exports to the U.A.E. are valued at $2 billion per year. Bilateral trade between the two countries stands at $7 billion (FY 2008–09). Pakistan-U.A.E. bilateral trade has seen a great surge, particularly during the last six years. The trade volume which was around $2 billion during FY 2000–01 rose to $7 billion during FY 2010–11 with the U.A.E. emerging as the second largest destination for Pakistani exports. The U.A.E. is one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment in Pakistan.

Afghanistanisasignificantpotentialpart-ner for investment that has not been fully explored by the U.A.E. In 2010, the U.A.E. hostedthefirstAfghanistanInternationalInvestment Conference (AIIC). The AIIC “endeavorstoattractsignificantlyhigherlevels of public and private investment by 2012 in the sectors of infrastructure, min-ing and transportation in order to gener-ate considerable increases in economic growth, job creation, and public revenue mobilization.”29

Investments of the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia have been mostly centered on infrastructure (highway projects, Afghani-stan constitutes an important gateway for trade to and from Central Asia),30

28 http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=94250&Cat=329 http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/afghanistan-investment-confer-ence-in-dubai-1.71874330 In December 2011, the U.A.E. and U.K. signed an agreement to launch a highway project.http://www.emirates247.com/business/corporate/uae-uk-in-afghan-highway-project-2011-12-21-1.433819

telecommunications (notably a $100 million investment by Etisalat in Afghani-stan’s telecommunication business),31 agriculture and energy. In 2011, the U.A.E. pledged $250 million for the reconstruc-tion of Afghanistan, to be managed by the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD). 32

The Afghan Business Council of Dubai,33 formed in 2005 by expatriate Afghan businessmen, traders and entrepreneurs residing in the U.A.E., aims to develop economic, cultural and social relations be-tween Afghanistan and the U.A.E. as well as to promote the interests of the Afghan business community in Dubai. It would bebeneficialtolookatwaysofimprov-ing such councils in order to attract more businessmen in investing in Afghanistan.

Migrant workers from Pakistan and Afghanistancontributesignificantlytotheeconomy of their home countries. GCC countries are host to around 2 million Pakistani workers that contribute around 7 percent to Pakistan’s GNP.

There are around 150,000 Afghan migrant workers in the U.A.E. Numbers on migrant workers in GCC countries are either unavailable or inconsistent. This is largely due to the fact that many Afghan migrant workers obtain their work permits on the basis of their Pakistani passports and are thus excluded or counted for within the Pakistani numbers.

Jobs and income generation for Afghan people are two key elements to increase development and achieve stability in Afghanistan, where the jobless rate is around 40 percent or more. GCC coun-tries could focus on developing Afghani-stan’s migrant labor capacity in a targeted and systematic way in order to increase the prospects for income generation in the form of remittances.

31 U.A.E.’s Etisalat to invest $100 million in Afghanistan, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/13/etisalat-afghani-stan-idUSLDE72C02E2011031332 http://www.uaeinteract.com/docs/UAE_pledges_US$_250_million_for_reconstruction_in_Afghanistan_Abdullah_bin_Zayed/46544.htm33 http://www.abcdxb.com/

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