In Northern Mists:Bering Climate-Present and Future

James Overland, Phyllis Stabeno,Muyin Wang and Nick Bond

NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Historical Global Temperatures

J. Hansen

20C3M

11 models have decadal signal

PIcntrl 10 models have decadal signal

Wang et al., J. Climate, in press

20th Century Arctic Winter Temperature Anomalies from International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ModelsBlack line is Observations

Change in Bering Sea in 2006Arctic still warm overall

Surface Air Temperature Anomalies

February Ice Anomalies

2000-2005

2006

Bering Sea Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature change compared to 1980-1999

Under IPCC middle CO2 Scenario

Bering Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature Anomaly (Relative to 1980-99 mean)

IPCC A1B emissions scenario

Bering Sea Ice Anomaly (March) relative to 1979-99 Period Mean

Ratio (%) of Ice Area Decrease by 2050

50%

20502000

Difference in Sea Level Pressure2050-2100 Minus 1950-2000

Salathe, GRL, 2006

Summary• Continued warming and loss of sea ice for Bering Sea

• Must consider large natural variability in near term climate projections

• Warming trend due to greenhouse gases as large as natural variability by 2030

• Climate trajectory is important to ecosystem reorganization-Pollock ride out a cold swing?

• Most likely, rate of warming will slow for Alaska and Bering Sea, as we were in local temperature maximum

State of the Arctic Report

●A review of 2000-2005 was conducted by an international group of 20 scientists who developed a consensus on information content and reliability.

●This Report was conceived as an update to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

www.arctic.noaa.gov/soa2006/