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Observing the Ocean…in Real Time

Observing the Ocean…in Real Time

A Global Array of Profiling FloatsA Global Array of Profiling Floats

2 Argo: A Global Array of Profiling Floats

Hurricanes. Tornadoes. Ice storms.Record rainfall. Floods. Droughts.Unprecedented warm spells in winter.Over the pasttwo years, ex-treme events likethese haveshown the dra-matic impact ofshort-term cli-mate variabilitythroughout theworld.

To forecastindividualstorms, warmperiods, andother day-to-dayevents that com-prise theweather, meteo-rologists use observations from anextensive atmospheric observing sys-tem: a network of land and oceansurface measurements, and a sparser

On the cover: An Argo profiling float and the Jason-1 altimetric satellite appear with a map showing the proposed global arrayof 3,000 Argo floats. The name Argo stresses the close connection between observations from the floats and the Jason-1 satel-lite. Jason was a mythological Greek hero and Argo his ship. Together, the modern Argo and Jason will improve the scientificbasis for climate observation and forecasting. Photo of float: Tom Kleindinst, WHOI; Jason-1: NASA/JPL; map: Jay Shriver, NRL.

requires additional observations—temperature, salinity, and currentswithin the upper layer of the ocean.

The familiarEl Niño and itsless well-knownsister La Niñacause a signifi-cant amount ofclimate variabil-ity. Every fewyears, the upperlayer of the east-ern TropicalPacific Oceanheats up, andremains warmfor months. Thiswarming, termedEl Niño, altersthe global atmo-

spheric circulation, and changes thelikelihood that many types of extremeweather conditions will occur. LaNiña, a cooling of those same waters

The Argo Program will collect upper Profiles of temperature and salinity

are necessary for improved climate forecasts

network of balloon-borne sensors thatcollect profiles of temperature, humid-ity, and winds at least once a day.

These networks enable accuratethree- to five-day weather forecasts.Predicting climate, the broad patternof weather over seasons and years,

Tornado damage, Winter Garden, Florida, February 1998Hurricane Georges, September 1998

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Argo, a program proposed by an international team of scientists,

will employ a global array of 3,000 profiling floats to observe

the ocean’s upper layer in real time. Along with satellites, the Argo array

will initiate the oceanic equivalent of today’s operational observing system

for the global atmosphere. The combined ocean/atmosphere observing

systems will collect necessary data to understand and predict

phenomena that influence our global climate.

President Clinton has proposed a U.S. contribution of 1,000 floats

for this array. We are working with our international partners

to secure commitments for the remaining floats.

This brochure describes the U.S. effort in support of the Argo Program.

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Observing the Ocean in Real Time 3

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Societal Impacts from 1997/98 El Niño

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9. Property Damage10. Tourism Decreased11. Transportation Problems12. Social Disruptions

5. Fisheries Disruption6. Health Risks7. Human Fatalities8. Pests Increased

1. Crop/Stock Damage2. Energy Savings3. Famine4. Fires

13. Wildlife Fatalities14. Water Rationing

5

The latest El Niño had global consequences, both positive and negative. Over a six-month period, the darkest green areas received atleast 30 inches more rain than normal; darkest brown areas received at least 30 inches less. During the winter of 1997-98, the UnitedStates used 15 percent less energy for heating, owing to the warmer than normal temperatures, thus saving about $5 billion.

An early version of an Argo float. Atpresent, there are two float suppliers inthe U.S., and at least two suppliers offloat sensor modules. Individual floatsshown in this brochure differ accordingto supplier and model.

layer profiles of the global oceanthat sometimes follows an El Niñoepisode, causes a different set ofweather conditions to become morelikely. Each affects weather aroundthe world.

To forecast the development,strength and duration of El Niños andLa Niñas, the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (NOAA)implemented and operates an exten-

sive network to monitor the TropicalPacific. The oceanic component of thisEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Observing System, fully in place inNovember, 1994, makes measurementsfrom the ocean surface and its subsur-

Ice Storm, Mooers, New York, January 1998

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face layers, and reports this informa-tion back to forecast centers in realtime. Data gathered by the system,complemented by measurements fromspace, led to successful seasonal cli-mate forecasts for the United Statesduring the 1997/98 El Niño—sixmonths in advance.

Research has revealed that phe-nomena in addition to El Niño and La

Niña occur inother parts of theglobal ocean.These also influ-ence year-to-yearclimate variations.Predicting theseadditional phe-nomena requiresobservations ofthe ocean wellbeyond theTropical Pacific.We need a globalobserving system,

operating both from space and withinthe ocean. The space component isalready in place. Profiling float tech-nology necessary for observationswithin the ocean has been demon-strated. To complete the global ob-

serving system, oceanographers haveproposed an array of 3,000 floats, tobe deployed globally. Called Argo, itwill greatly improve our ability tounderstand the fluctuating climatesystem and to provide reliable fore-casts worldwide.

4 Argo: A Global Array of Profiling Floats

We routinely observe the Tropical PacificTo forecast El Niño/La Niña and their influence on climate

Forecasting the strength and durationof El Niño and La Niña requires ad-vance knowledge of conditions in theTropical Pacific, particularly sea sur-face temperatures. Since changes insea surface temperature depend notonly on surface atmospheric condi-tions—such as the wind field—butalso on the ocean’s subsurface charac-teristics—such as currents, tempera-ture, and salinity—it is necessary tohave advance knowledge of thoseoceanic variables. The ENSO Observ-ing System, illustrated in the chart tothe right, collects such data.

Collated and fed into computermodels of the ocean, these data en-abled NOAA’s Climate PredictionCenter to forecast the temperature ofthe sea surface in the Eastern Pacifichalf a year ahead. These predictedsurface temperatures were key to theCenter’s corresponding forecasts ofextreme weather conditions associ-ated with the 1997/98 El Niño event.While El Niño caused losses of $15billion in the U.S., the advance warn-ing helped to save an estimated $1billion in California alone.

11/97

The ENSO Observing System collects observations of the atmosphere, the sea surface,and the upper ocean to help forecast short-term climate changes associated with ElNiño and La Niña. It consists of moored buoys (red) such as the one pictured aboveleft; coastal sea level stations (yellow); surface drifting buoys (pink arrows); andexpendable bathythermographs deployed along the routes taken by volunteer observ-ing ships (blue lines).

Jason 1, an altimetric satellite scheduledfor launch in 2000, will measure globalsea level, continuing the observationsbegun by TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992. Thesedata will complement measurementscollected by the ENSO Observing System.Both are joint NASA/CNES missions.

12/97 1/98 2/98 3/98 4/98

The U.S. is not alone in experienc-ing such extreme weather. El Niño’seffects in 1997/98 ranged from violenthurricanes off Mexico’s West Coast tocrop-destroying rains in East Africaand widespread fires in Indonesia.Worldwide, more than $30 billion indamage occurred during the 1997/98event. Thus, a reliable means of pre-dicting El Niños and La Niñas hasglobal implications.

A global monitoring network thatincludes Argo will enable scientists notonly to extend their El Niño/La Niñaforecasts, but also to predict the effectsof other phenomena. This will improvethe overall accuracy of climate fore-casts, and thus will contribute to theeconomic well-being of the world.

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From El Niño toLa Niña. TOPEX/Poseidon images(above) showthat sea level inthe Eastern Tropi-cal Pacific fell byabout a footbetween Novem-ber 1997 andOctober 1998, asthe warm upperlayer associatedwith El Niño gaveway to cold wa-ters associatedwith La Niña.White patchesindicate thatlocal sea level is5-10 incheshigher thanmean sea level(green); purplepatches indicatethat it is 5 incheslower. NASA/JPL

How predictions match reality. Topcharts show forecasts—issued on July17, 1997—for the December 1997 toFebruary 1998 period. For the rain-

fall forecast (top right), yellow/orangeindicates a high likelihood of drier

than normal weather and green anabove-normal chance of wet weather;

the darker the color, the greater thelikelihood of extremes. For the tem-perature forecast (top left), yellow

indicates a warmer season thannormal. Bottom charts show actual

rainfall and temperatures for thesame period. For more information,

see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

5/98 6/98 7/98 8/98 9/98 10/98

El Niño, La Niña, and American winters. A typical El Niño involves a weakening of the Trade Winds andwarming of the waters of the eastern Tropical Pacific with associated heavy rainfall. There is a more intenseAleutian Low, and the Pacific Jet Stream directs storms toward Southern California, and brings wetter,colder than normal conditions to the southern tier of states. The region from the Great Lakes to Alaskaexperiences a milder winter than usual. La Niña, on the other hand, involves stronger Trade Winds, coolerwaters in the eastern Tropical Pacific, and a weakened Aleutian Low. The Jet Stream crosses into the U.S.farther north, bringing wetter than normal weather to the Pacific Northwest. The region from the Prairiestates to Alaska experiences colder weather, while the southern tier states are warmer and drier than usual.Source: Dave Thompson, John M. Wallace, and Kay Dewar. University of Washington.

40-50%30-40%20-30%10-20%5-10%0-5%

0-5%5 -10%

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Climatology

WET DRYProbability anomaly

PrecipitationTemperature

Very DryDryIn Driest One-ThirdIn Wettest One-ThirdWetVery Wet

Very WarmWarmIn Warmest One-ThirdIn Coldest One-ThirdColdVery Cold

Predicting the Climate—Six Months in AdvanceSix month forecast for December, January, and February, 1997/98 issued on July 17, 1997

40-50%30-40%20-30%10-20%5-10%0-5%

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Climatology

WARM COLD

PrecipitationTemperatureObservations for December, January, and February, 1997/98

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6 Argo: A Global Array of Profiling Floats

Additional phenomena influence our climateTo forecast their impact, we need global subsurface observations

Two examples of global subsurfaceocean observations. Red dots show thedistribution of expendable bathythermo-graphs (XBTs) deployed in a typicalmonth from volunteer observing ships;these collect real-time, upper-ocean tem-perature profiles. Orange dots show allcruise tracks occupied by the WorldOcean Circulation Experiment (WOCE)between 1990 and 1998; about 20,000hydrographic stations collected compre-hensive information between the surfaceand the sea floor. WOCE is now movinginto the analysis phase, during whichtime the data are being made available.

The shifting winds of the Arctic Oscillation influence weather throughout the North Atlantic. During theoscillation’s ‘high index,’ stronger westerly winds circle the Arctic. Cool winds move across Eastern Canada,and milder conditions prevail in the U.S. More intense storm tracks across the North Atlantic pick up warmthand moisture, to take mild temperatures and rain to Northern Europe. When the oscillation shifts to its “lowindex,” weaker westerlies circulate around the Arctic. More frequent cold air “outbreaks” spill across EasternNorth America and Western Europe. Farther south, weak storm systems carry rain across the Mediterraneanregion. Source: Dave Thompson, John M. Wallace, and Kay Dewar. University of Washington.

temperature anomalies are associatedwith substantial anomalies in U.S.weather. Its pattern resembles that ofEl Niño/ La Niña, but its timescale ismuch longer.

To forecast the sea surface tem-perature patterns related to thesephenomena, we must be able to ob-serve and understand conditions at

and beneath the surface of the globalocean. TOPEX/Poseidon, a collabora-tion between the National Aeronau-tics and Space Administration (NASA)and the Centre National d’EtudesSpatiales (CNES, the French SpaceAgency), uses satellite altimetry tomeasure global sea level every tendays, with high accuracy. The NASA/

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Building on their success in predict-ing El Niño and La Niña, meteorolo-gists and oceanographers are ready totake the next steps. They seek to un-derstand decade-scale, global phe-nomena that are correlated withweather anomalies over the U.S. andelsewhere.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO), closelyrelated to theNorth AtlanticOscillation(NAO), is ashifting pat-tern of windsthat affectstemperaturesand rainfallover Europeand EasternNorthAmerica. Itappears tovary with seasurface tem-peratures inthe NorthAtlantic. ThePacificDecadal Oscil-lation (PDO)is anotherclimate pat-tern in whichsea surface

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Observing the Ocean in Real Time 7

NASA’s QuikSCAT satellite (left) sched-uled for imminent launch, will ob-serve surface vector winds over theglobal ocean. Illustration at rightshows surface wind speed (yellowstrongest and green weakest) anddirection (white streamlines) col-lected by NASA’s NSCAT scatterometer,which flew aboard the JapaneseADEOS-1 satellite in 1996/97.

The greater our understanding of ENSO and the decadal oscillations, the better wewill be able to forecast climate variability. For a 35-year period, wintertime climatevariability has been correlated with each of the three phenomena in question. Themaps indicate the potential predictability associated with the indicated phenomena.Top panels show potential predictability associated with ENSO alone; middle panelsshow that associated with ENSO and PDO; bottom panels show potential predictabil-ity associated with ENSO, PDO, and AO. Brown areas have the highest potential pre-dictability; white areas have little or no predictability. For more information, seehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

CNES Jason-1 mission will belaunched in 2000 to continue theseobservations. In addition, the opera-tional NOAA Polar-Orbiting Environ-mental Satellites are measuring globalsea surface temperature on a continu-ing basis.

NASA’s QuikSCAT satellite and theJapanese ADvanced Earth ObservingSatellite (ADEOS-2), scheduled forlaunches in 1999 and 2000, will eachcarry a NASA Sea Winds scatterometerto measure surface vector winds overthe global ocean.

Observations from the ocean sur-face are needed to correct andcomplement satellite data for maxi-mum utility. More importantly, satel-lites can’t collect data from beneaththe surface. Peaks and valleys in theheight of the sea surface are causedby wind-driven currents, heating andcooling, or changes in salinity (viaevaporation and precipitation). Forexample, the rise of more than a footin the surface of the Eastern Pacificduring the 1997 El Niño was causedby strong subsurface warming andfreshening.

At present, our knowledge of thesubsurface structure of the AO, PDO,and NAO is very limited. While wehave the ENSO Observing System forthe Tropical Pacific, we lack a consis-tent, long-term observing system tocollect temperature and salinity pro-files in the global ocean. Until wehave this, we won’t be able to incor-porate the effects of oscillations suchas the AO, PDO, and NAO into ourclimate forecasts.

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Wintertime Potential Predictabilityprecipitation surface air temperature

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

ENSO + Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

ENSO + PDO + Arctic Oscillation (AO)

8 Argo: A Global Array of Profiling Floats

Argo is the next step in global ocean observationsIt will complement our existing satellite capability

Argo is the result ofover two decades ofdevelopment andutilization of floattechnology sponsoredby the National Sci-ence Foundation andthe Office Of NavalResearch. It representsa critical complementto NASA’s $1 billioninvestment in space-based ocean observa-tories. Argo will be aglobal network of3,000 profiling floats,spaced about 300kilometers (186 miles)apart. When deployedat the surface, eachfloat will sink to a typical depth of2,000 meters (slightly more than amile). After drifting with the oceancurrent at that depth for ten days, itwill rise to the surface, measuring thetemperature and salinity of the layersthrough which it rises. On the surface,the float will radio its data and posi-tion to an orbiting satellite beforereturning to depth and continuinganother cycle. A technique based ondifferential buoyancy ensures that the

tists in near real time, via the GlobalTelecommunications System. All datawill be openly available, withoutproprietary restrictions.

The observations will be used,together with other available data, tomake ‘weather maps’ of the ocean, toinitialize climate forecast models forthe ocean-atmosphere system, and toimprove our understanding of theocean itself.

The Argo network will gather data

Profiling the atmosphere. A typical network of surface observing stations from whichradiosonde balloons (left) collect atmospheric temperature and humidity profilesevery 12 hours. An Argo float is the oceanic equivalent of a radiosonde.

A typical global distribution of Argo floats. The floats were initially distributed at a uniform spacing ina computer model of the ocean. The floats moved with the model’s currents for three years. The resultshows that the floats maintain a reasonably uniform distribution.

floats sink to the required depth andrise to the surface on schedule, andcontinue to do so throughout theirdesign lifetime of four to five years.

Satellites will relay the data theyreceive from Argo floats to land-basedreceiving stations. From there, thedata will go to a number of scientificteams around the world, who willcarry out initial quality control. Theywill then make the data available foroperational forecast centers and scien-

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The Argo float cycle, withcommunications andpositioning by satellite.

Positions in December 1998 of 190 profilingfloats gathering data in the North Atlantic Ocean.

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with high efficiency. Between 1990and 1998, the World Ocean CirculationExperiment (WOCE) program com-pleted a global ocean survey, collect-ing as many temperature and salinityprofiles (20,000) as were taken overthe previous 100 years. Argo will pro-vide 3,000 profiles down to 2,000meters depth every ten days.

Argo floats will be deployed from avariety of ships and aircraft (see nextpage). Hundreds of commercial ves-sels that ply trading routes across theglobe can deploy floats, just as theynow make meteorological observa-tions and drop instruments that give asingle ocean profile. The remotestregions of the ocean can be seeded byair. The great advantage of the floats isthat, after deployment, they will con-tinue to operate unattended.

Once fully implemented, Argo willconstitute an oceanic equivalent of theworldwide network of balloon-borne

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radiosondes. Just asthe radiosondes con-tribute to accuratethree- to five-dayweather forecasts,Argo will contributeto accurate climatepredictions.

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10 Argo: A Global Array of Profiling Floats

Argo is one element of a comprehensiveinternational system for observing the global oceanThe need for better monitoring of theocean for a wide range of purposeshas become clear over the past de-cade. The same information that willcontribute to short-term climate fore-casts will serve a variety of other pur-poses. Examples include the ClimateVariability and Predictability Program(CLIVAR), the Global Ocean DataAssimilation Experiment (GODAE), theGlobal Ocean Observing System(GOOS), and the Global Climate Ob-serving System (GCOS).

Argo will provide essential broad-scale, basin-wide ocean data sets forCLIVAR. This program’s scientific ob-jectives include describing and under-standing the physical processes re-sponsible for climate variability andpredictability, through the collection

Argo floats can simply be deployed overthe rail of small vessels (right). For de-ployment from ships, they can be low-ered in biodegradable cardboard boxes(left), bound with string secured with asoluble link. When the link dissolves, itfrees the string, opening the box andreleasing the float. Present plans fordeployment in remote areas include theuse of aircraft such as the C-130 (top).

and analysis of observations and thedevelopment and application of mod-els of the coupled climate system.CLIVAR also aims to extend the rangeand accuracy of seasonal tointerannual climate prediction.

Argo will serve as a critical sourceof observations for GODAE. The goalof this program is to demonstrate thepracticality and feasibility of routine,real-time global ocean data assimila-tion and prediction. GODAE willemphasize integration of the remoteand direct data streams, and the useof models and data assimilation todraw maximum benefit from the ob-servations.

Argo will also be a major compo-nent of GOOS, an international effortled by the Intergovernmental Oceano-graphic Commission of UNESCO, theWorld Meteorological Organization,and the United Nations Environmental

Program, with scientific guidance fromthe International Council of ScientificUnions. Endorsed at the Earth Summit

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For Further Reading

Argo Science Team. 1999. On the design and implementationof Argo: an initial plan for a global array of profiling floats.International CLIVAR Project Office Report No. 21, GODAEReport No. 5, 32 pp (available from the Argo web site).

Barsugli, J.J., et al. 1999. Effect of the 1997-98 El Niño on indi-vidual large-scale weather events. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80(in press).

Changnon, S.A. and Kunkel, K.E. 1999. Rapidly expanding usesof climate data and information in agriculture and waterresources: causes and characteristics of new applications.Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 821-829.

Mantua, N.J. et al. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscilla-tion with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Am. Meteorol.Soc., 78, 1069-1079.

McPhaden, M.J. 1999. Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 ElNiño. Science, 283, 950-954.

National Ocean Research Leadership Council. 1999. Toward aU.S. Plan for an Integrated, Sustained Ocean Observing Sys-tem, 68pp (available from: http:// core.cast.msstate.edu).

NOAA Office of Global Programs. 1999. ENSO compendium:an impact survey of climate variability and the human system(work in progress; for information contactsponberg@ogp.noaa.gov).

Rodwell, M.J., D.P. Rodwell, and C.K. Folland. 1999. Oceanicforcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and Euro-pean climate. Nature, 398 (6725) 320-323.

Suplee, C., 1999. Nature’s vicious cycles. National Geo-graphic, 195 (3) 72-95.

Thompson, D.W.J, and J.M. Wallace, 1998. The Arctic Oscilla-tion signature in the wintertime geopotential height andtemperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297-1300.

Internet References

ARGO, the proposed global array of profiling floatshttp://www.argo.ucsd.edu

Summary of results from float deploymentshttp://wfdac.whoi.eduhttp://flux.ocean.washington.edu

White House proposal for an ocean monitoring systemhttp://www.pub.whitehouse.gov/uri-res/I2R?pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/1998/6/16/2.text.1

Some forecast centers to use real-time Argo datahttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.govhttp://www fnoc.navy.milhttp://www.coaps.fsu.eduhttp://www.ecmwf.inthttp://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu

In-situ observations of the Tropical Pacifichttp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/

Satellite altimetry and scatterometryhttp://www.jpl.nasa.gov

Climate Variability and Predictability Programhttp://www.dkrz.de/clivar/hp.html

Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experimenthttp://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/mrlr/nrs/oopc/godae/ homepage.html

Global Climate Observing Systemhttp://www.wmo.ch/web/gcos/gcoshome.html

Global Ocean Observing Systemhttp://ioc.unesco.org/goos/

AcknowledgementsThis brochure was produced by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with financial contributions from the

University of Miami, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (University of California, San Diego), and the University ofWashington. Editor: Stan Wilson, NOAA; Designer: Jim Canavan, WHOI Graphic Services; and Writer: Peter Gwynne.

in 1992, GOOS is an internationalinitiative to create a global system forgathering, archiving, and distributingocean data and derived products withworldwide utility. Its objectives in-

clude improving the management ofliving resources and coastal areas,ensuring safe marine navigation, andassessing the health of the ocean—aswell as laying the basis for improved

understanding and forecasting of cli-mate. GOOS shares its climate objec-tive with GCOS, a long-term observingsystem designed to meet climate infor-mation requirements.

12

A specially modified profiling float, with propellers to measure vertical currents while it driftsat depth, is lowered into the Labrador Sea in January 1997.

The time is right for Argo.Float technology has been demonstrated.

Spaceborne remote sensing has been proven and will be in place.Communications are available to collect resulting observations in real time.

Data assimilation techniques are under development to incorporatethe float and satellite data into computer models.

The latest generation of super computers have the capability to run themodels and generate forecasts to meet a variety of societal needs.

Argo is ready to start. Its benefits will be immense.G

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Jennifer RichardsMedia RelationsUniversity of Miami/Rosenstiel School4600 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, FL 33149jrichards@rsmas.miami.eduTel: (305) 361-4013Fax: (305) 361-4711

Cindy ClarkDirector, SIO CommunicationsScripps Institution of Oceanography/University of California, San Diego9500 Gilman Drive, 0233La Jolla, CA 92093-0233cclark@ucsd.eduTel: (619) 534-1294Fax: (619) 534-5306

Sandra HinesManager, News and InformationB-54 Gerberding HallUniversity of WashingtonSeattle, Washington 98195shines@u.washington.eduTel: (206) 543-2580Fax: (206) 685-0658

Sandra MurphyInformation Services CoordinatorWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionWoods Hole, MA 02543smurphy@whoi.eduTel: (508) 289-2252Fax: (508) 457-2180

Matthew StoutSenior Public Affairs OfficerOffice of Public and Constituent AffairsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationHCHB Room 601314th and Constitution Ave. NWWashington, D.C. 20230Matthew.Stout@hdq.noaa.govTel: (202) 482-6090Fax: (202) 482-3154

For additional information about the Argo Program