In Search of Lost Boys (etc)Maggie Woodrow Memorial Lecture - 2007

Bahram BekhradniaDirectorHigher Education Policy Institute

European Access NetworkGalway, 27 June 2007

Age Participation Index by Social Class - 1940 to 2000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

GB

AP

I (p

er c

ent)

.

I, II, IIIN IIIM, IV, V

Full-time Young Participation by Socio-Economic Class: A New Widening Participation Measure in Higher Education – DfES March 2007

Changes in relative participation over time

In 1960 higher SEGs were 7 times more likely to enter HE. The difference had reduced to 3 times by 1995.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Ratio of APIs

Table 1.1 Dearing Report 6. Updated from Social Trends (dataset ST30313)

The new Prime Minister’s views on social class discrimination in HE

o "An absolute scandal" was the phrase Gordon Brown used to embroil the government in a class war with Oxford University (Times 26 May). With the emphatic backing of the Sun (26 May), which enjoyed "his blistering assault on stuck up Oxbridge 110%," Mr Brown had ignited a much larger media debate on education, elitism, and class. “-BMJ 10 June 2000

Entry to HE by social class, does not vary once A levels are obtained

Participation in HE by Social Class and A level scores

0 20 40 60 80

25+

13-24

1-12A

leve

l poi

nts

(old

tari

ff)

Per cent participation

higher SEG

lower SEG

Source: DfES. Calculated from Youth Cohort Study data

GCSE success by social class

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Managerial /professional

Other non-manual

Skilledmanual

Semi-skilledmanual

Unskilledmanual

% o

btai

ning

5+

GC

SE

A-C

Source: Table B from Youth Cohort Survey of 16 year-olds (2000)

Subjects studied by gender

Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Educa

tion

Subjec

ts all

ied to

Med

icine

Lingu

istics

, Clas

sics a

nd re

lated

subje

cts

Europ

ean

Lang

uage

s, Lit

erat

ure

and

relat

ed ..

.

Veter

inary

Scie

nces

, Agr

icultu

re a

nd re

lated

...

Combin

ed su

bjects

Law

Biolog

ical S

cienc

es

Creat

ive A

rts a

nd D

esign

Social

stud

ies

Med

icine

and

Den

tistry

Easte

rn, A

siatic

, etc,

(non

Eur

opea

n lan

guag

es)

Mas

s Com

mun

icatio

ns a

nd D

ocum

enta

tion

Histor

ical a

nd P

hilos

ophic

al stu

dies

Busine

ss a

nd A

dmini

strat

ive st

udies

Physic

al Scie

nces

Techn

ologie

s

Mat

hem

atica

l and

Com

pute

r Scie

nce

Archit

ectu

re, B

uildin

g an

d Plan

ning

Engine

ering

% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

Men

Women

The widening disparity between male and female participation

First year full-time home students by gender

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

000'

s Men

Women

The difference persists in all other respects

o Female mature participation - by 50%

o Female part-time participation – by 40%

o The most prestigious institutions, no less than the least

o The class of degrees obtained - >10% more ‘good’ degrees

The underperformance of boys is a world-wide phenomenon

Men and women’s entry rate differences as a fraction of the sum of the rates

Men and women’s entry rate differences as a fraction of the sum of the rates

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance (2004)

The problem is essentially a school problem

A level participation by gender

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

% o

f p

up

ula

tio

n t

akin

g A

lev

els

Boys

Girls

Source: DfES

There are some who deny that the issue is a problem

"just as men's numerical advantage in college enrollment before the 1980s was taken as a sign of patriarchal privilege, the more recent reverse trend whereby women now outnumber men in undergraduate and graduate degree programs has been taken to mean that males are now at an educational (and soon, outcomes) disadvantage … rather than as an evolving realization of the nuances of gender's effects."

M Weaver-Hightower University of Wisconsin, Madison

Average age of students on entry to HE

Source: Eurostudent 2006

Part time provision hardly features in European HE

Source: Eurostudent 2006

The effect of the introduction of fees on participation in 1998

The effect of the introduction of fees on participation - post-1998

222324252627282930

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

YP

R(H

)

England

Source: HEFCE 2005 “Young participation in higher education”

The effect of the introduction of fees on participation in 1998

The effect of the introduction of fees on participation - post-1998

222324252627282930

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

YP

R(H

)

England Scotland

Source: HEFCE 2005 “Young participation in higher education”

Similarly, the increase in fees in 2006 has not reduced student demand

Applicants applying to UCAS by 15 January closing dateby entry cycle 2002 - 2007

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

330,000

350,000

370,000

390,000

410,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Entry Cycle

No

um

ber

of

app

lica

nts

Source: Nick Barr February 2007

The introduction of fees has greatly increased the resources available

4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,000

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04(

plans

)

2004

-05(

plans

)

2005

-06(

plans

)

2008

-09

2008

-09

Funding per student in ₤s

HE drop-out rates in the OECD

Drop-out rates: number of graduates divided by the number of new entrants in a typical year of entrance

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Irelan

d

United K

ingdom

Spain

Finlan

d

Icela

nd

Germ

any

Denmar

k

Nether

lands

Czech

Rep

ublic

Belgium

Austri

a

Franc

e

Sweden

Italy

% d

rop

-ou

t

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance (2004)

Likelihood of drop-out is directly related to prior educational experience

Full-time first degree entrants (1997-98)Non-continuation rates from first year of study

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

A-leve

l 30-

27A-le

vel 2

6-21

A-leve

l 20-

11A-le

vel 1

0-1

Acces

sBTE

C (l

evel

3)

GN

VQ (l

evel

3)

Oth

er

None

young

mature

Source: HEFCE analysis of HESA data

The month of birth has a large impact on chances of progression to HE

Source: HEFCE 2005 “Young participation in higher education”

Participation in HE by month of birth and sex for the 1998, 1999 and 2000 English cohorts

10

15

20

25

Septe

mbe

r

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Birth month

%

Boys

Girls

September girls have more than 50% more chance of going to university than August boys

Comparison of a girl born in September and a boy born in August

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

September-born girl August-born boy

%

Source: HEFCE 2005 “Young participation in higher education”

In Search of Lost Boys (etc)Maggie Woodrow Memorial Lecture - 2007

Bahram BekhradniaDirectorHigher Education Policy Institute

European Access NetworkGalway, 27 June 2007