in this report gulfstream quarterly market update...the g150 is a current production aircraft with...

Gulfstream® Q3 2016 Market Update

Gulfstream Quarterly Market UpdateThanks for downloading the Q3 2016 Gulfstream Quarterly Market Update. If you are not currently subscribed, please click on the link at the bottom of the report to sign up to receive future editions.

What will $6M, $12M and $18M budgets buy in the pre-owned Gulfstream Markets?

It’s incredible to think how much prices have tumbled for pre-owned business jets in the last 8 years. When GV values fell 40% between 2008 and 2009, it was a shock to the system. Like many other capital assets in the Great Recession, values of coveted Business Jets reverted to correction territory following an overheated market. A used GV that sold for $45M in 2008 is now worth $12M. Today’s acquisition prices offer unprecedented utility-value for first-time and upgrade buyers. The same plane that sold for twice as much 9 years ago, offers the same utility today for half the capital outlay.

There is so much utility value in the pre-owned business jet market that it should be attracting more first-time buyers and upgrade opportunities than ever before. The increased utility is attracting the “smart-money” buyers who are engaging opportunities to take advantage of historically high returns from historically low prices.

As the Gulfstream Experts®, we have applied our market research and analysis to demonstrate what aircraft are available to buyers with $6M, $12M and $18M budgets. Think of “What You Can Buy” in terms of price for achieving operational objectives and return-on-utility.

All prices assume fleet-average time aircraft with typical equipment and interiors and enrolled on an engine programs such as RRCC or JSSI.

What You Can Buy for $6M?

2009-2010 Model G150 – Original Sale Price New was $12MThe G150 is a current production aircraft with 2,900nm range. There have been 120 G150’s built since 2007. The interior can accommodate up to 7 passengers. The cabin has a dropped floor with a 5.75 ft height – just shy of being a stand-up cabin. The G150’s value comes in the form of operating costs. With a Variable Operating Cost around $1900 per hour, the G150 is very affordable to operate. The main competitors for the G150 including the Lear 60XR and the Hawker 900XP are no longer in production. Gulfstream announced on September 28, 2016 that the last G150 has been ordered and will deliver mid 2017.

IN THIS REPORT

Newsletter......................1-3G650 Market .................. 4G550 Market ................. 5G450 Market .................. 6GV Market ..................... 7GIVSP Market ................ 8G280 Market .................. 9G200 Market...................10G150 Market...................11Recent Transactions.... 12Aircraft for Sale..............13

1130 Habersham Street - Savannah, Georgia 31401 - +1.912.236.8500 - - THE GULFSTREAM® EXPERTS

http://www.hagertyjetgroup.com

2008 Model G200 – Original Sale Price New was $19MThe G200 was built between 2000 and 2011 and the fleet consists of almost 250 aircraft. It has a range of 3,200nm. The interior can accommodate between 8 to 10 passengers comfortably in the 6.2 ft. stand-up cabin. Although considerably shorter than traditional Gulfstreams, the G200 fuselage is closely comparable in diameter to the larger models but has a drop down floor and the baggage compartment is accessed externally. The Variable Operating Cost for the G200 is around $2,500 per hour which is 25% higher than the G150. The value in the G200 comes from the larger cabin and better range but the G200 has been criticized by its lack of short field performance.

2000 Model GIV-SP – Original Sale Price New was $30MThere are nearly 535 GIV’s in service built between 1986 and 2003. The GIV-SP has been one of Gulfstream’s most reliable and capable aircraft. The IV-SP is a transatlantic airplane with a range of 4,200nm. The three-zone cabin can accommodate up to 16 passengers with forward and aft galley configurations. Variable Operating Costs are estimated at $3,900 per hour. The value in the IV-SP is the cabin and performance capability of the aircraft that eclipses other aircraft in this category. The operating costs and maintenance are the hardest pill to swallow for most potential buyers coming out of smaller airplanes like Learjets or Citations.


2007 Model G450 – Original Sale Price New was $35MThe G450 is a current production aircraft that distinguishes itself from the previous GIV models with upgraded EASY avionics found in the G650 and G550. Gulfstream has delivered 350 aircraft since 2003. Lighter avionics and Digital Engine Controls increase the range to 4,400nm. The three-zone cabin accommodates up to 16 passengers with forward and aft galley configuration options. Variable Operating Costs are similar to the older GIV-SP at $3,700 per hour. The G450 is a very capable aircraft with transatlantic range and comfort.

2002 Model GV – Original Sale Price New was $40MThere were nearly 200 GV’s built between 1997 and 2002. With a range of 6,500nm, the GV still boasts longer range than any of its competitors. It is a true transcontinental aircraft with the flexibility to perform the longest and shortest missions. The GV does everything a GIV-SP can do but better. It flies farther, faster, higher and more efficiently. Variable Operating Costs are slightly higher on the GV at $4,200 per hour which is mostly attributed to the costly engine maintenance. The three-zone cabin in a GV can accommodate up to 18 passengers plus an optional crew rest area for charter flights over 9 hours. The GV presents a tremendous utility value in today’s market because it can out-perform just about any other aircraft in the $12M and below category. The value in the GV comes from its versatility and cabin. The GV has already taken most of its depreciation and prices are first to flatten in today’s market with less than 4% of the fleet available for sale.




2003 Model G550 – Original Sale Price New was $44MThe G550 is a current production aircraft. There are more than 550 aircraft in the fleet since they started deliveries in 2003. The airframe and engines haven’t changed in 14 years apart from cabin interior improvements. The G550 is equipped with the current generation EASY avionics which allows for easier integration of upcoming avionics requirements. Aerodynamic improvements and lighter avionics gives the G550 an additional 250nm more range than the GV which in turn lowers the Variable Operating Costs to $3,800 per hour. For the first time in history, G550 prices have dropped below $20M which makes this amazing airplane more attainable than ever before. A used G550 offers tremendous capability with current generation technology.

2011 Model G450 – Original Sale Price New was $35MSince the G450 has lost nearly 50% of its value in less than 5 years, a lightly used G450 offers a lot of value for a buyer who wants a newer airframe but doesn’t want to pay new pricing. A used G450 costs even less than a new G280 which has considerably less range and cabin. General Dynamics has noted low demand for the G450 and has subsequently reduced production and lowered pricing to attract buyers to this model.

3



Current Supply of G650’s in the market:

As of September 27.2016

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$54

$56

$58

$60

$62

$64

$66

$68

$70

Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

G650 For Sale G650 Transactions G650 Fleet Average Value - VREF

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G650 year over year Depreciation was -12% between Q3 2015 -Q3 2016

G650 Market Summary

Gulfstream G650 Value/Transaction History

In production197

Deals Pending1

Net For Sale17

% Of Fleet For Sale9

Available For Sale 24 MO High21 - Q1 2016

Available For Sale 24 MO Low4 - Q1 2015

Q3 2016 Transactions 4

Q3 2015 Transactions4

Advertised Price Reductions3

Average Price Reduction-5%

Current G650 Ask Price Range $52.99M - $68.5M USD(Incl. ER)

Avg. YTD Sales Price $62M

Current G650 Avg. Ask Price$60M USD

% Available w/Fwd Galley77

% Equipped w/ Crew Rest Area77

Average Days On Market209

18

There are 18 used G650/ERs on the market with 1 deal pending. The current supply represents 9% of the fleet. No ERs have sold or gone under contract in Q3, which puts ER pre-owned inventory at 4 aircraft for the 2nd consecutive quarter.

Transaction volume is slightly down over the previous quarter, with 4 aircaft going under contract and/or closing in Q3 2016. Unlike other large cabin Gulfstream pre-owned markets, buyers located in Asia have accounted for the majority of G650 transactions this year with 2/4 G650 transactions this quarter going to either China or Hong Kong. Interestingly, Western Europe and American buyers have failed to materialize or have chosen not to engage this market at this time, perhaps waiting for a further reduction in G650 values. G650 values are depreciating at -2.62% per quarter and -12% over the previous year, but sellers, espeically those listing delivery time only aircraft have remained firm on pricing (5 less price reductions in Q3 compard to Q2). Nearly half of the aircraft for sale are choosing to publish a ”Make Offer” ask price.

While sellers of 2015/2016 ferry time only aircraft are holding out for low/mid $60s, motivated sellers of 2013/2014 model aircraft have accepted current market realities of selling their aircraft in the mid/low $50s. Hagerty Jet Group anticipates the first sub $50M transaction will occur within the next 6 monhts, which would set a new precedent for the G650 pre-owned market.

© 2016 Hagerty Jet Group




There are 36 pre-owned G550s on the market with 6 deals pending. The current supply represents 6.5% of the entire fleet of approximately 524 aircraft built between 2003 and 2016. Net supply is technically at 30 aircraft. Supply has remained relatively stable in 2016, with at least 30 aircraft advertised at any given time. Current inventory levels represent a 36 month high.

Year to date, there have been 27 G550 transactions (including aircraft currently under contract), which is 13% lower than YTD transactions from Q1-Q3 2015. Sale prices have ranged between $17M for a 2003 Aft Galley with almost 5,000 hours to $44M for a 2013 Forward Galley with 700 hours. In Q3 2016, 8 aircraft have gone under contract and/or closed. As ask prices for 2008 and newer G550s approach the low $20M range, we can expect transaction volume to increase. Hagerty Jet Group believes there is current demand for buyers ready to engage 8-10 year-old G550’s in the $20M range.

Ask prices continue to decline but not as much as the previous quarter. In Q3 2016 there were 18 price reductions accounting for an average reduction of -5%, compared to a total of 13 price reductions accounting for an average price change of 10% in Q2 2016.

G550 book values have dropped -3.8% since Q2 2016 - the most modest drop since Q4 2015 (-1.46%). However, the overall book value has dropped -19% in the previous 12 months.

As of September 27, 2016

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Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

G550 For Sale G550 Transactions G550 Fleet Avg Value

x$1M

USD

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G550 year over year depreciation is -19.4% between Q3 2015 and Q3 2016

G550 Market Summary


In production540

Deals Pending6

Net For Sale30

% Of Fleet For Sale6.5


Available For Sale 24 MO Low23 - March 2015

Transactions YTD27

Transactions Same period 201531

Advertised Price Reductions 18

Avg Price Reduction-5%

Current G550 Ask Price Range $16.9M - $40M USD

Current G550 Avg. Ask Price$26.5M USD

Avg Sale Price Q3 2016$25.5M USD

Q3 2016 Sale Price Range$18.75M - $38M USD


% Equipped with Crew Rest Area55

36





The G450 market has been the most active of all pre-owned Gulfstream markets in Q3 2016, with 15 aircraft going under contract and/or closing. For perspective, 18 G450s traded in all of 2015. Supply levels remain on par with Q2 2016 with 29 aircraft listed on the market. However, net supply dipped below 20 aircraft at the end of July. Net supply currently stands at 22 aircraft, after lease only options and aircraft under contract are removed. Despite lower net inventory levels compared to previous months, this remains a buyer’s market and prices have continued to drop. However, we expect some stabilization as the velocity of transactions is outpacing new additions to the market.

The market is still feeling the effects of the market correction occuring in late Q2, subsequently triggering additional pre-owned transactions as sellers attempted to get ahead of the depreciation curve. Off Market transactions have also flourished, where opportunitistic dealers have taken advantage of aggressive wholesale pricing for inventory deals. As predicted by Hagerty Jet Group in Q2, sellers responded by slashing prices with 13 price reductions accounting for an average reduction of -6.5 % which in turn created better buying opportunities for buyers who were on the sidleines in Q2.

Book values have flattened between Q2-Q3 as demonstrated by a modest reduction of -2.8% from the previous quarter but year over year depreciation is -22% which is higher than most other Gulfstream models. This can be partially attributed to aggressive pricing from the OEM.

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Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

G450 For Sale G450 Transactions G450 Fleet Avg Value

G450 year over year depreciation is -22% between Q3 2015-Q3 2016

Airc

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x$1M

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G450 Market Summary

In production338

Deals Pending6

Net For Sale22




Transactions YTD(incl Pending)32



Avg Price Reduction-6.5%

Current G450 Ask Price Range$11.75M - $24.5M USD

Current G450 Avg. Ask Price$17M USD

Avg Sale Price Q3 2016$12M USD

Q3 2016 Sale Price Range$9M - $14M USD


% Enrolled on RRCC73

29


6

As of September 27, 2016Gulfstream G450 Value/Transaction History



Current Supply of GV’s in the market:

The GV market continues to be the most stable of all large cabin pre-owned Gulfsteam markets. There are currently 7 GV’s listed for sale, with 3 deals pending and 2 planes for “Lease Only” reducing net supply to 2 aircraft for sale. While activity has remained slow-compared to previous quarters-evidenced by 3 price reductions accounting for an average -8% reduction in ask prices, buyers are still responding to sellers, demonstrated by 5 aircraf tha have gone under contract and/or closed in Q3 2016.

With what is a reversal of market trends, according to an aggregate of book values, the GV market actually appreciated by .5% between Q2 and Q3, representing the first market appreciation for a large cabin pre-owned Gulfstream market in some time. Hagerty Jet Group expects values to remain flat for the foreseeable future unless pre-owned inventory grows at an accelerated rate which we haven’t see in the past 2 years.

Buyers entering the GV market will be disappointed by the lack of options. Of the remaining aircraft currently for sale, many have been on the market for over 1 year because they are either priced too high or need too much work to get them up to current standards.

As of September 27,2016

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Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

GV For Sale GV Transactions GV Fleet Avg ValueAi

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GV year over year Depreciation is -15% between Q3 2015-Q3 2016

Gulfstream GV Value/Transaction History

In production191

Deals Pending3

Net For Sale2




Transactions YTD15



Avg Price Reduction -8%

Current GV Ask Price Range$9.95- $14.9M USD

Current GV Avg. Ask Price$12.25M USD

Avg Sale Price Q3 2016 $9.8M USD

GV Average Days on Market419

% Available For Lease28

% With Engine Program71

7


7

GV Market Summary



Current Supply of GIV-SP’s in the market:


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Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16GIV-SP For Sale GIV-SP Transactions GIV-SP Transactions GIV-SP Fleet Avg Value

x$1M

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Airc

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GIVSP year over year Depreciation is -12.18% between Q3 2015-Q3 2016

There are 45 pre-owned GIV-SP, G400 and G300 aircraft on the market with 4 deals pending representing 12.5% of the entire fleet of 330 aircraft built between 1993 and 2003. 5 aircraft are currently advertised as “Lease Only”. Net supply is technically at 36 aircraft. Ask prices currently range from $3.4M to $7.4M. Supply has increased by 25% in Q3 2016 compared to Q2 2016 and is 80% higher today than one year ago. We are currently witnessing record inventory levels, as 7 aircraft were listed in September alone.

Q3 has reset pricing expectations for the GIV-SP as multiple later models with average time and engine programs have been selling between $5.5-$6.5M. This is applying downward pressure to the rest of the market as buyers now expect to pay no more than $7M for aircraft built in 2000 or newer on engine programs with turn-key interiors and avionics upgrades. This is the top of the IV-SP market – down from $8.5M a year ago. Buyers who may have considered high S/N GIV-SP’s a year ago may also consider older G450’s that represent good value in the $10-12M range. Hagerty Jet Group expects demand to remain the same for the foreseeable future, with pre-owned inventory staying above the 10% threshhold. Ask Prices have continued to decline as inventory continues to build and outpaces transactions. Motivated sellers have not hesitated to offer dramatic price reductions to differentiate their aircraft in a crowded marketplace by aggressively advertising price reductions: In Q3 2016 there have been 14 price reductions for an average reduction of -11.5%, compared to a total of 21 price reductions accounting for an average price change of -10% in Q2 2016.

GIV-SP Market Summary

Gulfstream GIV-SP Value/Transaction History

In production335

Deals Pending4

Net For Sale36




Transactions YTD28

Transactions Q3 20157


Average Price Reduction-11.5%

Current GIV-SP Ask Price Range$3.4M - $7.4M USD

Current GIV-SP Avg. Ask Price$5.48M USD


Q3 2016 Sale Price Range$3.8M - $6.5M USD


% Enrolled on Engine Program51

45






The first pre-owned G280 sold in the second quarter of 2016, causing many market insiders to believe this would act as a catalyst to generate further G280 pre-owned activity. Almost immediately after, two more G280’s went under contract but ultimately the deals deals fell apart in early Q3 2016. Ag-gressive pricing from the OEM on new G280’s has attracted buyers who would otherwise consider pre-owned aircraft.

Currently there are 6 aicraft for sale with 2 deals pending and 1 aircraft for lease only reducing net pre-owned supply to 3 aircraft. The supply of G280’s has steadily risen since Q1 2016, when there were only 3 aircraft for sale. Current inventory levels tie the historic high of Q4 2015.

Ask prices for the G280 range between $15.95 and $18.9M (however 4/6 aircraft are currently listed as “Make Offer”, an indication that the market is uncertain of values). The pre-owned market continues to compete directly with the manufacturer where a new G280 will deliver in Fall 2017 to customer specification. Another interesting note about the G280 market is the lack of North American pedigreed aircraft on the market, with only 2/6 aircraft avaial-ble for sale or lease currently listed on the market.

G280 book values have continued to depreciate -7% since the previous quarter and -20.5% over the previous year. There were 2 price reductions in Q3 2016, representing an average drop of -8% in ask prices. Book value depreciation appears to mirror ask price reductions.


In production96

Under Contract2

Net For Sale3


Available For Sale 24 MO High6 - Q4 2015 & Q3 2016


Transactions YTD3


Number of Price Reductions2

Average Price Reduction8%



N Registered on Market3/6

#Enrolled on Engine Program3/6

# Based in US4/6


6


G280

9

G280 Market Summary

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Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

G280 For Sale G280Transactions G280 Fleet Avg Value

G280 year over year Depreciation is -20.56% between Q3 2015 -Q3 2016

Airc

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x$1M

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There are 37 G200s for sale on the pre-owned market with at least 6 aircraft currently under contract, reducing net supply to 31 aircraft for sale. The G200 supply has softened in Q3 2016, with only 5 new aircraft introduced in August and September. On market demand has softened a bit compared to the beginning of the year. Pre-owned transactions are currently 25 % lower than Q1 2016 and on par with Q2 2016.

Higher time Net Jet aircraft that were traded to Bombardier continue to account for a significant amount of pre-owned transactions. These aircraft typi-cally trade at lower prices than their competitors because they have much higher total time. Many buyers for these aircraft are putting them into charter programs where the G200 is proving to be very popular.

G200’s are sittting on the market longer as demonstrated by the increasing days on market which is now approaching 365 days.

Prices for the oldest G200’s have now dipped below $3M. 3/6 G200s currently under contract are reportedly selling for under $3M and G200’s built around 2005 are being priced in the low $5M +/- range but 2008 models are now asking under $6M in some cases which will create downward pressure on the older models.

G200 book values continue to decline at the rate of -7% since Q2 2016 and -20% between Q3 2015 and Q3 2016. Sellers are trying to outpace depreciation by issuing 13 price in the past reductions in the past 90 days - accounting for an average drop in price of -8%.


In production246

Deals Pending6

Net For Sale31

% Of Fleet For Sale15



Transactions YTD30



Average Price Reduction8%




Q2 2016 Sale Price Range$2.75M - $7.25M USD

% Based in US56


37


G200

10

G200 Market Summary

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$2

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Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

G200 For Sale G200 Transactions G200 Fleet Avg ValueAi

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G200 year over year Depreciation is -20% between Q3 2015-Q3 2016



Current Supply of G150s in the market:

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$8.0

$8.5

$9.0

Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 G150 For Sale G150 Transactions G150 Fleet Average Value

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G150 - Q22016

G150 year over year Depreciation was -19% between Q3 2015- Q3 2016


There are currently 7 Gulfstream G150s advertised for sale, with 1 deal pending. Pre-Owned inventory decreased by -41% in Q3 2016 after 4 deals from Q2 2016 closed. 1 aircraft is currently deal pending while the other Q3 G150 transaction closed earlier in the quarter.

G150 prices currently range from $5.995M for a 2008 model with approximately 1,500 hours to $6.99M for a Russian pedigreed 2011 model with 1,820 hours and High Speed Data. There were 4 price reductions in Q3 2016 representing an average reduction of -5%. Interestingly, during Q2 the G150 market had 7 price reductions accounting for a 9% drop in ask price, which generated the greatest volume of transactions for the G150 in 2 years. While demand has slowed over the past 90 days, the market has demonstrated that there are buyers who will engage when aircraft are priced accordingly.

G150 book values declined at a rate of -8.7% between Q2 and Q3 2016, the largest quarterly drop for the pre-owned market in over 3 years and -19% between Q3 2015 and Q3 2016. Gulfstream announced on September 28, 2016 that the last G150 would be delivered in Mid 2017.

G150 Market Summary


Active Fleet119

Under Contract1

Net For Sale6

% Of Fleet For Sale5.8%

Available For Sale 24 MO High9 -Q1 2015 &Q1 2016

Available For Sale 24 MO Low7 in Q2 Q4 2015 & Q3 2016

Transactions Q1 20161

Transactions Same Period 20152


Average Price Reduction 5%

Current Ask Price Range$5.99 to $6.99 $ USD

Average Ask Price$6.41M

For Sale w/ High Speed Data28% (2 of 7)

For Sale w/ Engine Program100%


For Sale w/ U.S. Registration 33% (2 of 7 )

7


G150



Recent Transactions

12

2002 Gulfstream VSN: 665

Sold February 2, 2015 Sold March 9, 2015

2004 Legacy 600SN: 145770

Sold May 6, 2015

2015 Gulfstream G650 SN: 6117

Acquired April, 2015

2007 Gulfstream G550SN: 5154


Acquired May, 2015 Acquired June, 2015


Acquired July, 2015


Sold August, 2015

1995 Gulfstream IVSPSN: 1265


Sold September, 2015 Sold September, 2015


Sold January, 2016

2000 Gulfstream IVSP SN: 1411

Sold January, 2016


2002 Piaggio P-180 AvantiSN: 1050

Sold June, 2016 Acquired September, 2016


Sold September, 2016




Currently Available

2002 Citation ExcelSN: 560XL-5284



13

“In founding Hagerty Jet Group, we set out to build an independent

firm that excelled beyond traditional aircraft brokerage.”

- James Hagerty

Hagerty Jet Group is a business aircraft brokerage firm providing aircraft sales, marketing and acquisition services to large corporations and high-net-worth individuals. Founded by veteran Gulfstream Specialist James Hagerty, the firm is located in Savannah, Georgia conveniently near Gulfstream’s headquarters.

Gulfstream® Sales and acquisition experts

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1994 Gulfstream GIVSPSN: 1242


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in this report gulfstream quarterly market update...the g150 is a current production aircraft with...

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