Incidental Take Forecast

The official definition of take includes the attempt or action to “harass, harm, pursue, hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture, or collect” threatened and endangered species.

Take may occur incidentally; meaning that take is “incidental to, and not the purpose of, the carrying out of an otherwise lawful activity.”

Species Comal Limits 2013 Take San Marcos

Limits 2013 Take

Fountain Darter 797,000 10,482 549,129 16,698

Comal Springs riffle beetle 11,179 680 - -

Comal Springs dryopid beetle 1,543 13 - -

Peck’s cave amphipod 18,224 81 - -

Texas Blind salamander - - 10 0

San Marcos salamander - - 263,857 1,053

2013 Incidental Take Estimates for the EAHCP

Normal years average7,750 fountain darters (FD) taken in the Comal system per year

(USFWS).7,750 * 8-years = 62,000

Drought of Record (DOR)105,000 FD taken each year (USFWS).

105,000 * 7-years (remaining)= 735,00062,000 + 735,000 = 797,000 FD take threshold in Comal System

All incidental take (IT) scenarios were established by:

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 20280

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

Scenario 1: FD at Comal Springs IT Forecast2013 take trend through end of permit

Take = 10,482 FD per year

Take ForecastTake Threshold

Num

ber o

f ind

ivid

uals

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 20280

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

Scenario 2: FD at Comal Springs IT Forecast3-years DOR average; then 2013 IT trend

Take=105,000 x 3-years; then 10,482 per year

Take ForecastTake Threshold

Num

ber o

f ind

ivid

uals

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 20280

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

Scenario 3: FD at Comal Springs IT Forecast5-years of DOR average; then 2013 IT trend

Take=105,000 x 5-years; then 10,482 per year

Take ForecastTake Threshold

Num

ber o

f ind

ivid

uals

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 20280

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

Scenario 4: FD at Comal Springs IT Forecast7-years of DOR; then 2013 IT trend

Take=105,000 x 7-years; then 10,482 per year

Take ForecastTake Threshold

Num

ber o

f ind

ivid

uals

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 20280

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

Scenario 5: FD at Comal Springs IT Forecast7-Years of DOR average; then USFWS take average

Take=105,000 x 7-years; then 7,750 per year

Take ForecastTake Threshold

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uals