indain economic trend

8/7/2019 Indain Economic Trend

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INDIAN ECONOMIC

TREND

DR. SHAFALI NAGPALREADER

[email protected]

UGC-ASC,

BPS WOMEN UNIVERSITY, KHANPUR KALAN,

SONEPAT-131001

NATIONAL CONFERENCE

ON

LATEST TREND OFMARKET & IT IN EMERGING

INDIA

IN

HIM, SONEPAT


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THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT OUR GREVIANCES AGAINST THE

BRITISH EMPIRE HAD A SOUND BASIS. AS THE PAIN STAKINGSTATISTICAL WORK OF THE CAMBRIDGE HISTORIAN ANGUSMADDISON HAS SHOWN, INDIA SHARE OF WORLD INCOMECOLLAPSED FROM 22.6% IN 1700, ALMOST EQUAL TO EUROPE

SHARE OF 23.3% AT THAT TIME, TO AS LOW AS 3.8 % IN 1952.INDEED, AT THE BEGINNING OF 20TH CENTURY, THE BRIGHTESTJEWEL IN THE BRITISH CROWN WAS THE POOREST COUNTRY IN

THE WORLD IN TERMS OF PER CAPITA INCOME.

DR. MANMOHAN SINGH


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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGDP $1.43 trillion (2010)

$4.00 trillion (2010)

GDP growth 8.2% (2010, Q3)

GDP per capita $1,176 (2010)$3,290 (2010)

GDP by sector services (55.3%)industry (28.6%),agriculture (16.1%) (2010)


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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTGDP rising from 16% in 199091 to 43% in 200506

Major trading partners European Union, China, the

United States and the United Arab

Emirates In 200607,

Major export commodities engineering goods,petroleum products, chemicals and

pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery,

textiles and garments, agricultural products,

iron ore and other minerals.

Major import commodities crude oil and related products, machinery,

electronic goods, gold and silver

In November 2010, exports increased 22.3% year on-year to 85,063 crore (US$18.88

billion), while imports were up 7.5% at 125,133 crore (US$27.78 billion). Trade deficit

for the same month\ dropped from 46,865 crore (US$10.4 billion) in 2009 to 40,070

crore(US$8.9 billion) in 2010.


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AGRICULTUREIndia ranks second worldwide in farm output

Employs 52.1% of total work force

Agriculture and allied sector (forestry , logging

and fishing) constitute 15.7% of GDP (2009-10)

Avg. yield is 30 to 50%highest yield in the world

largest producer of milk

Second largest producer of groundnuts, rise, wheat

sugarcane, cotton, fruit (10.9%), vegetables (8.6%)


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RURAL MARKET

GROWTHTWICEAS FASTAS URBAN MARKET

HOMOGENIOUS CONSUMER

SATURATION OF URBAN MARKETRURALINCOMEISINCREASING

TAX BENEFITS

BUILDINGINFRASTRUCTURES

MOREPOPULATION IN RURALAREA


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INDUSTRY

28% OF GDP

EMPLOYS 14% OF TOTALWORKFORCE.

TEXTILEISSECOND LARGESTINDUSTRYAFTERAGRICULTUREEMPLOYING20 MILLION .

SQUEEZING COST

R

EVAMPING MANAGEMENTCHEAP LABOR

NEW TECHNOLONGY


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SERVICE SECTOR

1951-1980 4.5%

1991-2000 7.5%

GDPSHARE(1950) 15%

(2010) 55.3%

INCRESED SPECIALIZATION

LOW COSTLABOUS,

HIGHLYSKILLED

EDUCATED

FLUENTENGLISHSPEAKINGWORKERS


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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

Share of top five investing countries in FDI

inflows. (20002010)

RANK COUNTRY INFLOWS

MILLION USD

INFLOWS

%

1 MAURITIUS 50164 42

2 SINGAPORE 11275 9.00

3 USA 8914 7.00

4 UK 6158 5.00

5 NETHERLAND 4968 4.00


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RISING MIDDLE CLASSThe World Bank estimates that the global middle

class is likely to grow from 430 million in 2000 to

1.2 billion in 2030, defining the middle class as

earners making US$10-20 a day (a range ofaverage

incomes between Brazil and Italy). China and India

will account for two-thirds ofthe expansion.


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RISING MIDDLE CLASS

Growth in households with annual disposable incomesbetween US$5,000 and US$15,000 has been striking.Kazakhstan, Romania and Russia saw the fastestgrowth during 2000-2010 with over 50.0% of

households in this category by 2010. By 2020, the totalincome of households with a disposable income ofUS$5,000-15,000 in emerging Asia will account for4.9% ofglobal annual disposable income from 0.8% in2000. Consumer demand in EMEs will gradually move

from basic needs to more sophisticated demandpatterns and will be the key driver ofglobal consumermarkets.


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RISING MIDDLE CLASS

As global drivers of world economic output andthe most populous states in the world, China,India as well as Indonesia hold the biggestpotential. The increase in the educatedpopulation is a key component leading to strongaverage incomes. In 2010, households withannual disposable incomes of US$5,000-15,000as a percentage of total households is expected

to be 31.7% in China, 14.6% in India and 35.7% inIndonesia. This will reach 46.2% in China, 41.1%in India and 58.3% in Indonesia in 2020


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DEMOGRAPHIC ADVANTAGE

Over 2010-2020, the population aged

between 0-29 will decline in some countries

like Brazil, China and Vietnam.

Average age of china 42

Average age of USA 42

Average age of India3

7


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CHALLENGES

SLOWAGRICULTUREGROWTH

CORRUPTION

EDUCATION INFRASTRUCTURE

FREEMARKET


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THANK YOU

indain economic trend

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