independent research association of new zealand...wendy turvey, opus research operations manager dr...
TRANSCRIPT
-
SPEAKERS
Dr Jared Thomas, Research Manager, Behavioural Sciences, Opus
Dr Hamish Mackie, Principal Researcher, Mackie Research, TERNZ
INVITED GUESTS
Wendy Turvey, Opus Research Operations Manager
Dr Vivienne Ivory, Opus Research Principal Urban Scientist
FORUM PARTNERS
Independent Research Association of New Zealand
Dr Rob Whitney, Executive Officer
Royal Society of New ZealandDr Andrew Cleland, CEO Dr Francine Harland, ResearcherDr Marc Rands, Senior Researcher
Science New Zealand
Anthony Scott, Chief Executive
Universities New Zealand
Jonathan Hughes, Deputy Executive Director
-
Transport in Growing Cities
Smarter thinking and a wider view to overcome New Zealand’s urban transport problems
Dr Jared Thomas, OPUS ResearchDr Hamish Mackie, Mackie Research
-
Costs for New Zealand Cities
Congestion
Cost of travel
Pollution and Greenhouse gases
Poor health – obesity, heart disease
Erosion of social capital
International competitiveness
Low attractiveness
-
March madness!
-
How do we differ internationally?
What do we want from our cities?
Source: www.eiu.com
-
Putting the “human factor” back into decisions
What do the people want?
How do they use it now?
Who will use it in the future?
If you build it will they come?
Smarter long-term decisions
Generation Y and Public Transport
“We can’t put our riders needs first until we really understand our customers”
-
opusinternational.com
As our cities grow our PT challenges change
• Operational factors
become easier
• Social factors become
harder
• Transport behaviour
as a social capital
indicator
-
Social factors in Public Transport – A Singapore Study
Not moving in…Not queuing or letting others alight first… Not giving up seats…
-
Better information and behaviour change
“The challenge is not technology; the challenge is human behaviour.”
-
We must be bold to shift from the status quo
-
But we are not always good at predicting the future…
“Next year, I’m definitely going to eat less and exercise more!*” [*may not actually happen….]
What about trends?
-
But we are not always good at predicting the future…
-
A threshold of uncertainty around mobility
Rapid transit
30 to 40 km
Car (mid-1950s)about 60 km
Electric tram10 to 12 km
Walk2 km
Horse-drawn tram4 to 5 km
Historically transport has led urban form
-
Try before you buy – Smart ways to test future scenarios
1. Better community buy-in2. Greater certainty about hitting the
right level of service3. Identifying not just least regrets…BUT
better opportunities4. Considering the future environment
and the future customer
-
Better sociotechnical information to make better decisions
We can spatially map rider data
-
Where do people cycle?
-
1980 2007
Source: MOT, 2016. http://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Research/Documents/25yrs-of-Travel-Summary.pdf
-
• 31% of New Zealand children 2-14 years old overweight (21%) or obese (10%).
• Child obesity increased from 8% in 2006/07 to 10% in 2011/12 (similar for 2015/16).
2015/16 New Zealand Health Survey, MOH 2016
• Costs of obesity and inactivity approx $1.3b pa (in NZ)
Obesity and inactivity
-
People who cycle to work are about 25% less likely to die (of any cause) compared with people who do not cycle to work
Active travel has large benefits
References: Andersen et al 2000, Matthews et al 2007
Environ Health Perspect; DOI:10.1289/ehp.1307250The Societal Costs and Benefits of Commuter Bicycling: Simulating the Effects of Specific Policies Using System Dynamics ModelingAlexandra Macmillan,1 Jennie Connor,2 Karen Witten,3 Robin Kearns,4 David Rees,5 and Alistair Woodward1
The benefits of widespread best practise cycling infrastructure would outweigh the costs by a factor of 10-25 to 1
Source: Stuff.co.nz
Source: bikeauckland.org.nz
-
Te Ara Mua
Future Streets
-
Preliminary Concepts
-
Wednesday
Saturday (market day)
Measuring pedestrian and cyclist movements
-
Town centre
-
Windrush park
-
Mascot
-
The architecture of decision making
Outcomes
Environment
Practices and standards
Policies
SocietyPeople don’t generally appreciate the link between streets and health
Transport and Health Policies don’t reflect the link between streets and health
Inertia for the status quo is enormous. Change is happening but very slowly
Streets are mostly still designed for cars
Still low levels of cycling and active travel
-
E-bikes
Source: bikeauckland.org.nz
-
What sort of cities do we want to live in?