india hopes high for next elections on 17th july, 2017 · 2017-07-14 · 2404, 1 lake plaza tower,...
TRANSCRIPT
WISE M NEYA Weekly Update from SMC
(For private circulation only)
INDIA HOPES HIGH FOR NEXTPRESIDENT OF INDIA ELECTIONS ON 17TH JULY, 2017
2017: Issue 588, Week: 17th - 20th July
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(Saurabh Jain)
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tock markets globally made fresh highs, as investors lapped up equities after U.S.
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled that the Fed won't rush to Stighten monetary policy as inflation remains persistently below target. Also hopes of
a strong earnings season lifted the sentiments of the investors. The recent data from US
showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell for the first time
in a month and producer prices unexpectedly rose in June. Reflecting global demand, Chinese
exports rose 17.3 percent in the month of June and Imports rose at a pace of 23.1 percent.
Chinese authorities will release second quarter GDP numbers next week on 17th July.
Back at home, breaking boundaries, both Sensex and Nifty moved higher as inflation hit a
record low, offering the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) leeway for a policy rate cut. Also the
positive global cues post dovish statement from the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on
further rate hike supported the bulls. However, some nervousness also played on market
participants' minds following muted earnings posted by the country's largest software
exporter TCS. India's retail inflation fell to a new low in June as consumer prices rose 1.53
percent in June, compared to last year, slower than the 2.18 percent increase seen in May.
At below 2 percent, inflation has now fallen below the lower bound of the RBI's flexible
inflation target of 4 percent (+/- 2 percent). With weak inflation and Industrial growth that
came a rate of 1.7 percent for the month of May compared to 2.8 percent recorded in the
prior month, expectations of further cut in interest rates have risen by the Reserve bank of
India (RBI).
On the commodity market front, CRB index saw five months continuous decline and July is
already trading in negative zone and this is a concern for the market. However, in the last
week market saw some recovery owing to some upside in bullion, energy pack and some
industrial commodities, but recovery was marginal. Surging global stock markets is
dampening the safe haven demand of gold. Gold can face resistance near $1250 in COMEX
and 28600 in MCX while it has support near $1180 in COMEX and $27000 in MCX. Overall
crude oil can trade in the range of 2700-3100 in MCX. GDP of China, CPI of Newzeland, ECB
Bank Lending Survey, CPI of UK, Euro-Zone ZEW Survey, German ZEW Survey, BOJ Outlook
Report, BOJ Policy Balance Rate, Unemployment Rate of Australia, ECB Rate Decision, ECB
Asset Purchase Target, CPI of Canada etc are data and events, which are schedule this
week, hence it is advised to keep an eye on these triggers while trading in commodities.
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
FD Monitor 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.
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NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy• India Industrial output grew 1.7 percent on a yearly basis after expanding
revised 2.8 percent in April. The annual growth came in line with expectations.• India's consumer price inflation stood 1.54 percent year-on-year in June,
following a 2.18 percent rise in May. In the same period of 2016, inflation was 5.77 percent. Prices were forecast to gain 1.67 percent in June.
Engineering• Reliance Infrastructure of has received government approvals for its
planned $1-billion greenfield aerospace park near Nagpur. Power• JSW Energy is exploring new opportunities in renewable energy space and
transmission and distribution segment. Moreover, going forward, JSW Energy is renewing its focus on cost optimisation and as part of this, planning to utilise domestic coal in its coal mix at Vijayanagar and Ratnagiri plants.
• NLC India is investing heavily in renewable energy as producing only lignite and generating power from it may not be sustainable for long. The company recently won a 709 MW solar project in Tamil Nadu and hopes green energy will boost topline growth. It has firmed up a capex of about `17,400 crore for setting up 4,200 MW of green energy generation capacities by 2020 as part of its diversification plan.
Oil & Gas• Indian Oil Corp will spend 350 crore to set up a bioethanol facility at
Panipat Refinery in alliance with LanzaTech of the US to convert waste gas from its Panipat refining unit to ethanol.
Pharmaceutical • Lupin Ltd has received final approval from the US Food and Drug
Administration (US FDA) to market a generic version of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc's Ancobon capsules, the company said. The capsules—flucytosine capsules USP (250 mg and 500mg)—are indicated for the treatment of serious infections caused by certain strains of Candida and Cryptococcus
• Cipla India's and Swiss giant Novartis are in early-stage discussions to jointly market asthma drug Xolair, just months after they ended a legal battle over another respiratory drug.
• The USFDA approved Biocon and US drug maker Mylan's proposed biosimilar breast cancer drug Trastuzumab, a move that opens doors for Bangalore based Biocon in the big league of US cancer drug market. A biosimilar drug is a identical copy of a biologic innovator drug. Trastuzumab is an original drug of Swiss drug maker Roche which is sold under brand name of Herceptin, it is one of the most commonly used drug to treat HER2-positive breast cancer.
Healthcare• Zydus Cadila has received final approval from the US health regulator to market
Memantine Hydrochloride tablets, used to treat dementia, in America Automobile • Tata Motors is expanding portfolio of its small commercial cargo vehicles
under Ace brand with the addition of three new products priced between Rs 3.08 lakh and Rs Rs 4.78 (ex-showroom Mumbai).
• Mahindra & Mahindra will now challenge the country's largest commercial vehicle maker Tata Motors in growing minivan space with the introduction of Jeeto Minivan.
Miscellaneous• Blue Star announced the entry into Sri Lanka market by partnering with
Comfort Solutions as the official distributor for air conditioners, water coolers, deep freezers, bottled water dispensers and ice cube machines.
• The government gave green signal to Reliance Industries Ltd for expansion of its petrochemical complex in Gujarat, entailing investment of 2,100 crore. RIL proposal is to increase production capacities of these plants by debottlenecking and expansion through technological upgradation.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS• U.S initial jobless claims dipped to 247,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the
previous week's revised level of 250,000.Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 245,000 from the 248,000.
• U.S producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1 percent in June after coming in flat in May. Economists had expected prices to remain unchanged.
• U.S wholesale inventories climbed by 0.4 percent in May following a revised 0.4 percent drop in April. Economists had expected inventories to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.5 percent decrease originally reported for the previous month.
• Eurozone Industrial output grew 1.3 percent on a monthly basis, faster than the revised 0.3 percent increase seen in April. This was the fastest growth since November 2016, when output grew 1.6 percent. Output was forecast to gain 1 percent in May.
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Ex-Date Company Purpose
14-Jul-17 GlaxoSmithKlinePharmaceuticals
17-Jul-17 Shankara Building Products Dividend - Rs 2.75 Per Share18-Jul-17 IndusInd Bank Dividend - Rs 6/- Per Share18-Jul-17 JK Cement Dividend - Rs 8/- Per Share18-Jul-17 KEC International Dividend - Rs 1.60 Per Share18-Jul-17 Tata Elxsi Dividend - Rs 16 Per Share18-Jul-17 Meghmani Organics Dividend - Re 0.40 Per Share19-Jul-17 Grasim Industries Scheme Of Arrangement19-Jul-17 NOCIL Dividend - Rs 1.80 Per Share 20-Jul-17 Biocon Dividend - Re 1/- Per Share20-Jul-17 IDFC Bank Dividend - Re 0.75 Per Share20-Jul-17 IDFC Dividend - Re 0.25 Per Share20-Jul-17 Bharti Infratel Dividend - Rs 4 Per Share20-Jul-17 Reliance Industrial
Infrastructure 20-Jul-17 Tata Steel Dividend - Rs 10/- Per Share21-Jul-17 GATI Dividend - Re 0.80 Per Share
Meeting Date Company Purpose
17-Jul-17 Jubilant Foodworks Results17-Jul-17 ACC Results/Dividend18-Jul-17 UltraTech Cement Results18-Jul-17 Hindustan Unilever Results19-Jul-17 Canara Bank Results19-Jul-17 MindTree Results19-Jul-17 Jubilant Industries Results19-Jul-17 Havells India Results20-Jul-17 Bajaj Auto Results20-Jul-17 Wipro Results20-Jul-17 RBL Bank Results20-Jul-17 Reliance Industries Results20-Jul-17 Kotak Mahindra Bank Results20-Jul-17 ABB India Results21-Jul-17 Indian Bank Results21-Jul-17 Ashok Leyland Results
Dividend - Rs 30/- Per Share
Dividend- Rs.3.50 Per Share
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
NOTES:1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name
of "Morning Mantra ".2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength
coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing
Price Trend Trend
Changed Changed
S&P BSE SENSEX 32021 UP 18.11.16 25627 30400 29750
NIFTY50 9886 UP 27.01.17 8641 9400 9200
NIFTY IT 10331 DOWN 07.07.17 10088 10500 10600
NIFTY BANK 23938 UP 27.01.17 19708 22700 22400
ACC 1755 UP 27.01.17 1431 1650 1600
BHARTIAIRTEL 407 UP 03.02.17 354 370 360
BPCL* 461 DOWN 23.06.17 421 - 463
CIPLA 548 UP 09.06.17 551 525 510
SBIN** 292 DOWN 30.06.17 274 - 295
HINDALCO 206 UP 27.01.17 191 190 185
ICICI BANK 298 UP 21.10.16 277 280 275
INFOSYS 972 DOWN 13.04.17 931 980 1010
ITC 337 UP 13.01.17 250 300 290
L&T 1171 UP 13.01.17 959 1130 1110
MARUTI 7557 UP 06.01.17 5616 7000 6800
NTPC*** 167 DOWN 03.03.17 156 - 168
ONGC 158 DOWN 31.03.17 185 170 175
RELIANCE 1534 UP 23.06.17 1436 1440 1400
TATASTEEL 558 UP 19.05.17 490 510 500
S/l
4
Closing as on 14-07-2017The price of BPCL and L&T has been adjusted according to the bonus issue of 1:2*BPCL has breached the Resistance of 453**SBIN has breached the Resistance of 290***NTPC has breached the Resistance of 165
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
5
SMC Trend
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
SMC Trend
FTSE 100CAC 40
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
-419.86
161.95160.62
547.00
790.24 796.80
322.02
-600.00
-400.00
-200.00
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII / FPI Activity MF Activity
4.95 4.80 4.76
4.314.10
-0.71-0.44 -0.34 -0.32 -0.25
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Tata Motors TCS Bharti Airtel Infosys Tata Motors-DVR
Cipla Dr Reddy's Labs
O N G C M & M Kotak Mah. Bank
5.98 5.85
5.08 5.06 5.03
-0.64-0.44 -0.42 -0.41 -0.34
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Indiabulls Hous.
ACC Tata Motors Yes Bank Hindalco Inds. Cipla O N G C Dr Reddy's Labs
M & M I O C L
2.342.16
1.42
0.84
1.98 1.97
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Next 50
S&P CNX 500
1.942.07
2.57
0.11
1.33 1.32
3.70
2.07
2.36
2.15
-0.25-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
1.97
0.65
0.93 0.86
0.21
3.97
0.01
0.85
1.75
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
6
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
Investment Rationale 254 out of which 197 have been co-authored with customers and 57 are owned by the company.•L&T Technology Services provides engineering,
research and development (ER&D) services to •On consolidated basis, it has reported net profit of manufacturing, technology and process `96.50 crore on revenue from operations of engineering companies, to help them develop and 812.30 crore for the quarter ended 31st March build products, processes and infrastructure 2017. On YOY basis, it has reported net profit of required to deliver products and services to their 425 crore on revenue from operations of end customers. 3248.30 crore for FY 2017.
•It is present across five business verticals: ValuationTransportation (30% of total revenue), Industrial The management of the company expects robust Products (25% of total revenue), Telecom and Hi- growth prospects and a good visibility of its pipeline Tech (20%), Process Industries (19%) and Medical in Transportation, Telecom and Hi-Tech and Industrial Devices (6%). It derives around 60% of its revenue Products segments. It has a healthy pipeline of deals from North America, around 20% from EU (largely for the next two quarters and is seeing increased from Germany and Nordic Regions), 8% from industry demand for its solutions. Further, for FY 2018 Japan and rest 12% from ROW. the company is confident of double digit growth
•On the development front, it has entered into an without taking account benefits of acquisitions. exclusive agreement with a US-based technology Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price leader to maintain the Vantage middleware stack target of 884 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a for Cable Multi-System Operators (MSO) target P/Ex of 18x and FY18 EPS of 49.11.customers. The company will be the sole authorized partner for future sales, upgrade, maintenance and support of this leading middleware software. Moreover, it has won a notable deal from a European OEM for design, d e v e l o p m e n t , i m p l e m e n t a t i o n a n d standardization of digital engineering framework across all its major business units.
•Further, the proposed acquisition of Esencia will enhance its global offerings in the area of perceptual computing, advanced silicon and wireless networking technologies. In FY 2017 total number of patents filed and added tallies to
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P/E Chart
L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES LIMITED CMP: 767.50 Upside: 15%Target Price: 884.00
Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 931.00/671.00
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 7804.74
EPS (Rs.) 41.79
P/E Ratio (times) 18.36
P/B Ratio (times) 5.25
Dividend Yield (%) 0.91
Stock Exchange BSE
` in cr
% OF SHARE HOLDING
VALUE PARAMETERS
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 3248.30 3587.20 4020.90Ebitda 641.70 649.40 747.80Ebit 579.20 585.20 676.90Pre-Tax Profit 579.20 665.90 751.40Net Income 424.90 499.40 561.90EPS 39.64 49.11 55.24BVPS - 170.21 201.24ROE 33.30 28.20 25.50
APAR INDUSTRIES LIMITED CMP: 793.80 Upside: 22%Target Price: 968.00
Investment Rationale company is working on product mix for the plant ?Apar Industries is engaged in the business of with shifting some of the conductor products from
manufacture of conductors, transformer/ its Silvasa to Jharsuguda plant. The company has specialty oils and power/telecom cables. The set up green field Athola plant of 46000 MT company has planned a capex of approximately capacity and additionally increased fungible `100 crores for FY18. capacity for manufacturing of High Temp
Conductors. The high temp conductors plant will ?Conductor segment order book stands at 1,519 get commissioned in H1FY18. crores as of 31st March 2017 with exports comprising
48% of this order book. Conductor EBITDA margin for ValuationFY18 is expected to be around 10000-10500/MT The company has strong presence in domestic power range with sales volume in the range of about 150000 sector. The outlook for transmission sector looks MT. Expect the margin to be lower due to increase in promising due to various government initiatives. The overhead cost as the production operation is conductor business is seeing significant increase in undergoing transition between two plants as well as sales, which would contribute to the overall margins of increased level of competition. the company. Company's margins from cables segment
?Its oil segment, management expects volume will increase in the coming quarters due to a higher growth to come in from the UDAY projects which demand for power and elastomeric cables. Thus, it is are showing signs of picking up now and it will also expected that the stock will see a price target of 968 see some significant uptick in the sales that are in 8 to 10 months time frame on a one year average P/E taking place to the higher voltage transformers. of 18.85x and FY18 (E) EPS of 51.37.Expects the oil volume for FY18 to register a growth of 10% with EBITA margin per KL of about 4500-4800/ KL.
?Company's cable business order book cables stood at 224 crore. Management expects that the revenue growth to continue and its target is to do a 20% plus growth. Management also expect profitability to correspondingly increase. The main areas where company see higher demand is from the non conventional energy segments which are solar and wind.
?It Silvasa plant is running at 100% capacity utilization and Jharsuguda plant will reach capacity utilization of 70% plus in FY18. The
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Face Value (`) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 909.00/503.25
M.Cap ( Cr.) 3037.76
EPS ( ) 46.14
P/E Ratio (times) 17.20
P/B Ratio (times) 2.93
Dividend Yield (%) 1.26
Stock Exchange BSE
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% OF SHARE HOLDING
P/E Chart
` in cr
Actual EstimateFY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 4,832.00 5,421.20 6,107.60Ebitda 416.80 446.50 529.80Ebit 371.80 401.20 478.00Pre-Tax Profit 273.40 296.80 380.50Net Income 176.60 196.60 250.50EPS 45.88 51.37 65.45BVPS 223.14 306.97 359.58RoE 18.70 16.60 19.00
VALUE PARAMETERS
8.98
18.35
3.7157.96
11
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
3.741.080
1.54
89.77
3.87
Foreign
Institutions
Govt Holding
Non Promoter Corp. Hold.
Promoters
Public & Others
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.The analyst, not any of its affiliated companies, not any of their members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE
The stock closed at `1154.10 on 13TH July 2017. It made a 52-week low at
804.05 on 14th December 2016 and a 52-week high of 1243 on 06th October
2016. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily
chart is currently at 1022.47
As we can see on charts that stock was forming a “Continuation Triangle” on
weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Moreover, it has given the breakout of
pattern by gained around 1.5% in last week. Apart from this, technical indicators
are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of
1145-1150 levels for the upside target of 1250-1280 levels with SL below 1100.
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CHOLAFIN
The stock closed at 115.20 on 13th July 2017. It made a 52-week low at 66.65
on 21st November 2016 and a 52-week high of 116.30 on 13th July 2017. The
200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is
currently at 88.55
Stock was forming an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly charts
and has given the breakout of neckline in last week accompanied by record
volumes so follow up buying may continue for coming days. Moreover, stock took
around three years to form the pattern, and got the breakout this week, so the
potential of rise is quite strong. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 111-114
levels for the upside target of 135-140 levels with SL below 100.
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PTC
DERIVATIVES
CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)
CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QY) (MONTHLY)
The Market Undertone remained bullish with support of consistent FII buying and short covering. Nifty is trading near 9900 level and all the major sectors like
Banks, Metals, Auto & reality are supporting the market trend. Sector rotation is likely to continue further. Just after start of July series we have seen put writers
aggressively selling ATM puts and call writers unwinding short call positions. Put OI concentration has shifted towards 9700 from 9500 after start of July series in
recent trading sessions. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was down and closed at 9.46% while that for put options closed at 9.32%. The Nifty VIX for the week
closed at 11.25% and is expected to remain sideways. Overall market's cost-of-carry is on the lower side. Among Nifty Call options, the 10000-strike call has the
highest open interest of 45 lakh shares followed by the 9900-strike call which have OI of over 44 lakh shares. On put side, 9700-strike put has the highest open
interest of over 60 lakh shares in open interest respectively. The PCR OI for the week closed up at 1.57 from 1.29, which indicates OTM put writing. In the July
option contracts we are seeing options open interests building up in 10000 calls and 9700 puts, which indicates range of 9700-10000 this expiry. On the technical
front 9800-9840 spot levels is strong support zone and current trend is likely to continue towards 9950-9980.
In lakhs
In 10000 In 10000
CESC (JUL FUTURE)
Buy: Around `896
Target: `915
Stop loss: `886
ONGC
BUY JUL 160. PUT 4.00SELL JUL 155. PUT 2.00
Lot size: 3750BEP: 158.00
Max. Profit: 11250.00 (3.00*3750)Max. Loss: 7500.00 (2.00*3750)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURE
JUSTDIAL
BUY JUL 350. PUT 7.70SELL JUL 340. PUT 5.00
Lot size: 1200BEP: 347.30
Max. Profit: 8760.00 (7.30*1200)Max. Loss: 3240.00 (2.70*1200)
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
INDIANB (JUL FUTURE )
Buy: Above `318
Target: `328
Stop loss: `313
BULLISH STRATEGY
ACC
BUY JUL 1780. CALL 27.50SELL JUL 1800. CALL 21.80
Lot size: 400BEP: 1785.70
Max. Profit: 5720.00 (14.30*400)Max. Loss: 2280.00 (5.70*400)
ICIL (JUL FUTURE)
Sell: Below `162
Target: `157
Stop loss: `165
BEARISH STRATEGY
Call Put
20
.27
10
.32
3.6
0
5.1
7
6.3
3
13
.89 19
.18
22
.42
36
.38
39
.28 44
.47
4.2
8
27
.92
26
.62 3
3.5
9
47
.66
51
.58
63
.42
62
.23
51
.74
21
.34
13
.60
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
8000 9000 9200 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000
Call Put
-0.4
5
-0.7
2
-0.8
4
-1.7
2
-3.3
8
-8.5
5
-12
.38
-18
.36
-2.1
6
17
.49
6.4
7
-0.5
0
-2.2
5
-0.7
4
-12
.68
-10
.93
-11
.62
6.3
8
42
.27
43
.75
18
.93
-0.7
7
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
8000 9000 9200 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000
Call Put
9.4
1
1.2
0
5.2
8
2.3
3 11
.24
46
.78
6.8
8
7.0
7
57
.03 7
4.3
0
11
.16
6.7
8 19
.34
31
.62
58
.56
15
8.1
4
39
.58
6.0
9
5.5
2 14
.00
2.0
6
1.8
2
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
21000 21500 22000 22500 23000 23500 23700 23800 24000 24500 25000
Call Put
-0.3
7
-0.0
3
-0.1
2
-0.7
8
-2.7
7
-11
.54
0.2
5
1.4
9 10
.93
56
.45
2.7
7
-1.0
8
0.3
8
-45
.45
-38
.51
40
.60
11
.26
4.6
2
5.0
8
7.0
4
-0.2
2
-0.0
4
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
21000 21500 22000 22500 23000 23500 23700 23800 24000 24500 25000
8
In lakhs
9
DERIVATIVES
FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)
13-Jul 12-Jul 11-Jul 10-Jul 07-Jul
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM -4.20 6.25 1.20 5.90 1.70
COST OF CARRY% 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.73
PCR(OI) 1.57 1.47 1.42 1.38 1.29
PCR(VOL) 1.31 1.34 1.18 1.19 1.13
A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 2.27 3.25 0.96 9.20 0.61
A/D RATIO (ALL FO STOCK)* 1.33 4.21 0.42 5.97 0.77
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 9.46 9.27 9.18 9.29 9.88
VIX 11.25 11.05 10.89 10.91 10.91
HISTORY. VOLATILITY 9.58 9.32 9.45 9.74 8.45
*All Future Stock
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)
FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
#All Future Stock
Top 10 short build upTop long build up
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
CHENNPETRO 393.85 8.38% 813000 103.00%
MGL 998.50 2.19% 733200 65.58%
MRPL 124.85 2.84% 8275500 49.15%
CHOLAFIN 1170.50 2.89% 629500 37.45%
NIITTECH 568.30 2.72% 951000 35.76%
GODFRYPHLP 1279.65 1.98% 839500 25.02%
UJJIVAN 351.55 9.76% 8208000 22.91%
NATIONALUM 72.95 7.44% 7872000 22.24%
PTC 113.05 12.10% 13832000 13.30%
INDUSINDBK 1575.75 3.47% 5343000 12.59%
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
AJANTPHARM 1480.80 -4.72% 616800 65.81%
REPCOHOME 800.55 -1.33% 374500 34.09%
COLPAL 1079.30 -1.09% 1626800 27.13%
SRTRANSFIN 1030.00 -5.98% 5604000 22.83%
NESTLEIND 6809.80 -1.23% 98400 18.13%
APOLLOTYRE 252.65 -2.51% 15612000 14.83%
GMRINFRA 18.05 -6.96% 313110000 12.46%
MANAPPURAM 98.85 -3.18% 14856000 10.78%
CANFINHOME 3219.10 -1.10% 529250 9.63%
IDFC 56.40 -5.76% 97759200 9.31%
In Cr. In Cr.
13-Jul 12-Jul 11-Jul 10-Jul 07-Jul
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM -9.25 25.80 32.75 -12.00 9.80
COST OF CARRY% 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.73
PCR(OI) 1.39 1.76 1.63 1.81 1.91
PCR(VOL) 1.11 1.73 1.29 1.47 1.96
A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) 4.00 5.00 0.09 5.00 2.00
#A/D RATIO 1.22 10.00 0.05 10.00 0.91
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 11.75 11.52 11.27 11.96 12.41
VIX 11.25 11.05 10.89 10.91 10.91
HISTORY. VOLATILITY 11.96 11.70 11.85 12.08 11.57
- 55
1
- 53
3
14
7
16
4
- 54
4
- 76
1
- 10
00
94
-12
86
- 62
0
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
30-Jun 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 7-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul
23
87
13
41
70
9
14
22 1
96
5
- 11
37
51
20
85
- 11
85
29
56
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
30-Jun 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul 6-Jul 7-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul
10
SPICES
Soybean futures (Aug) will possibly trade sideways to down in the range of 2900-3100 levels. With the ongoing sowing season, there is cautiousness amid concerns of deficient rainfall impacting crop growth and induced a fear of re-sowing across key producing areas of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Presently, soybean prices are near a five-year low, and this is discouraging farmers from sowing the crop this season, hence they are not much interested and they are shifting mostly to cotton. While realization on soybean is seen around Rs.37,000 per ha, that on cotton would be around Rs.100,000 per ha. Secondly, crushers have been on the sidelines for making any bulk purchases amid low sales of meal. The uptrend of mustard futures (Aug) is likely to persist till it's taking support near 3620 levels, while the upside may remain restricted as there is resistance near 3740 levels. Fundamentally, mustard seed supply in the country is said to be abundant and thus any sharp rise in the commodity is unlikely. Stocks in the country as on June 31, estimated at 33.5 lac tons, which is more than sufficient to cater domestic demand for the remaining season (Feb-Jan). Ref. soy oil futures (Aug) may witness correction towards 635-630 levels. CPO futures (July) may trade with a downside bias & test 472 levels. Spot refined soy oil at the benchmark Indore declined marginally by Rs.2 to trade at Rs.640/10kg amid subdued demand. The buying momentum of edible oils are not picking pace as most of the central and western part of India, the major consuming belts has not received enough rains so temperatures are still high in those regions due to which retail demand is not improving.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
OTHER COMMODITIES
Kapas futures (April) has broken the major support near 860 levels & in days to come can see more downside till 820 levels. The sentiments have turned bearish on reports stated by the International Cotton Advisory Committee that India will likely be the world's largest producer for the third consecutive season with production growing by 6% to 6.1 million tons. An early and adequate monsoon, a higher minimum support price, and the prospect of better returns from cotton compared to competing crops have encouraged farmers in India to expand area by 8% to 11.3 million hectares. In addition, the U.S Department of Agriculture also reported that the world cotton stocks for 2017/18 is increased 934,000 bales owing in large part to an upward revision of 500,000 bales for India's estimated 2016/17 crop. Mentha oil futures (July) after witnessing an uptrend, may now go for a correction towards 920-910 levels due to profit booking from higher levels & facing resistance near 970 levels. The situation of the spot markets are that the sellers are asking for higher price, but buyers are doing only need-based buying as they are slightly cautious to buy at higher levels. Cotton oil seed cake futures (Aug) may continue to witness consolidation in the range of 1550-1650 levels. The demand is still dull from cattle feed manufacturers as they are still not ready to procure cotton oil cake at higher prices as Tur churi, Bajara churi, Guar churi and Chana churi which were priced way lower are still available in the range of Rs.1200-Rs.1500 /100Kgs which are used as substitutes for cotton oil cake. Another factor is the slow progress of monsoon, which traders are keeping a close watch are hence cautious in buying.
Bullion counter can remain on a weaker path on lack of safe haven demand and hawkish comments from Fed but short covering at lower levels cannot be denied. Local currency rupee can move in the range of 64-65. Gold can face resistance near $1250 in COMEX and 28600 in MCX while it has support near $1180 in COMEX and $27000 in MCX. Silver has key support near 34500 in MCX and $14 in COMEX. And it has resistance near 38500 in MCX and $17.50 in COMEX. India's gold imports in June more than tripled from a year ago as retail demand jumped ahead of the start of a new sales tax that prompted jewellers and bullion dealers to replenish stocks. According to GFMS “June gold imports climbed to an estimated 75 tonnes from 22.7 tonnes a year ago” Surging global stock markets is also dampening the safe haven demand of gold as, the MSCI world index hit a record high for the fourth time in less than a month as investors took Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's Congressional testimony as a green light for risk-taking. The US economy is healthy enough for the Fed to raise interest rates, though low inflation and a low neutral rate could leave the central bank with diminished flexibility, Yellen stated last week. Geopolitical concerns out of the Korean peninsula are likely to supportive for the broader precious complex, while the Trump-Russia collusion story continues to create uncertainty across markets.
BULLIONS
Crude oil prices may continue to trade on a volatile path as increase in China crude oil imports are supporting the prices while supply glut in US is keeping the upside capped. Overall crude oil can trade in the range of 2700-3100 in MCX. According to customs data “China imported 36.11 million tonnes or 8.79 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, again making the country the world's top buyer for the month as June imports were up 17.9 percent from a year earlier. OPEC compliance with production cuts slipped to 98 percent in June, but more importantly output from exempt (from cutting)members Libya and Nigeria is currently about 700,000 bpd higher than at the time of the November OPEC agreement, offsetting about 60 percent of the OPEC cuts. In recent past, oil has been under pressure as investors lost faith in a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to reduce output. U.S. oil production has risen by more than 10 percent over the past year to 9.4 million bpd. OPEC expected demand for its crude to decline next year as rivals pump more, pointing to a market surplus in 2018 despite efforts to tighten supply. Natural gas may trade on volatile path in the range of 180-210 in MCX. U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 57 billion cubic feet for the week ended July 7. Warmer than normal weather is forecast to cover most of the United States for the next 8-14 days, which should increase cooling demand which should spill over into natural gas demand.
ENERGY COMPLEX
Base metals may trade sideways with positive path amid supply concerns and better China economic data. China exports economy rose 11.3 percent from a year earlier, while imports expanded 17.2 percent. China posted a trade surplus of $42.77 billion in June wider than May's $40.81 billion. Copper may move in the range of 370-395 in MCX. Workers at the Zaldivar copper mine in Chile, owned by Antofagasta Plc and Barrick Gold Corp, will resume talks with Antofagasta after voting to strike. China's imports of copper and copper products for June were unchanged with May at 390,000 tonnes, reflecting a decline in refined imports this year. Lead can trade in the range of 143-156. Zinc can move in the range of 174-187. Zinc prices have climbed to their highest in more than three months as the market worries about falling stocks in exchange warehouses, shortages and expectations of stronger demand from top consumer China. Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have plummeted more than 50 per cent to below 67,000 tonnes since January. Nickel can move in the range of 570-610 in MCX. Aluminum prices may trade in the range of 122-128 in MCX. Russia's Rusal has resumed construction of its long stalled Taishet aluminium smelter project in Siberia in expectation of a widening global aluminium deficit. Aluminium surged higher on concerns over potential supply curbs by major producer, China and this has sparked a rally in the metal. Aluminium stocks in LME fell another 6,525 tonnes, taking them back towards near nine-year low.
Turmeric futures (Aug) are on clouds nine & this bullish momentum is likely to persist as it has the potential to test 8000 levels. During the rally, some corrections may come on the way, but the dips can be taken as a buying opportunity for long term gains. The main reason for the bullishness is that the rainfall in turmeric growing regions in Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra during the first 40 days of the four-month southwest monsoon has been below normal, which may have an adverse impact on the standing turmeric crops. The price of the yellow spice at the spot markets of Erode has already touched Rs.9000 a quintal & more upside is expected in days to come. The uptrend of cardamom futures (Aug) seems to remain intact & expected to take support near 990 levels, however more gains will emerge only if the counter breaches the resistance near 1050 levels. The export enquiries are being reported there but non-availability of exportable grade capsules is hindering the buying activities. Good quality capsules would be coming only from the second round of picking which is likely from middle of next month. Jeera futures (Aug) is looking bullish as it can test 21000 levels support by tight demand-supply situation prevailing in the country. It is estimated that around 15 lac bags (55kg each) of cumin seed now expected to left in hands of farmers, which is lower to meet domestic and export demand. Coriander futures (Aug) is likely to take support near 4800 levels. The supplies on the spot markets are on the lower side mainly due to farmers engagement with Kharif crop sowing.
BASE METALS
11
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
COMMODITY
COPPER MCX (AUGUST) contract closed at `380.85 on 13th July'17. The contract made its high of
412.50 on 01st Mar'17 and a low of 357.65 on 08th May'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of
the commodity is currently at 380.60.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57. One can buy in the
range of 380 - 378 with the stop loss of 375 for a target of 392.
` `
`
` ` `
JEERA NCDEX (AUGUST) contract closed at 19835 on 13th July'17. The contract made its high of
20050 on 28th Apr'17 and a low of 17705 on 31st May'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
commodity is currently at 18919.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51. One can buy in the
range of 19700 - 19600 with the stop loss of 19500 for a target of 20000.
`
` `
`
` ` `
ALUMINIUM MCX (JULY) contract closed at 123.40 on 13th July'17. The contract made its high of
127.10 on 26th May'17 and a low of 119.75 on 26st June'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of
the commodity is currently at 123.07.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48. One can buy in the
range of 123 – 122 with the stop loss of 120 for a target of 127.
`
` `
`
` ` `
COPPER MCX (AUGUST)
JEERA NCDEX (AUGUST)
ALUMINIUM MCX (JULY)
NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN AUG 2984.00 06.07.17 UP 3023.00 2900.00 - 2850.00
NCDEX JEERA AUG 19835.00 13.07.17 UP 19835.00 19000.00 - 18500.00
NCDEX REF.SOY OIL AUG 639.00 15.06.17 Sideways
NCDEX RM SEEDS AUG 3652.00 06.07.17 UP 3665.00 3550.00 - 3500.00
NMCE PEPPER MINI AUG 51280.00 11.05.17 Down 55957.00 - 52000.00 54000.00
NMCE RUBBER AUG 13690.00 13.07.17 Sideways
MCX MENTHA OIL JULY 943.30 23.03.17 Down 978.20 - 950.00 970.00
MCX CARDAMOM AUG 1022.70 06.07.17 Sideways
MCX SILVER SEP 36590.00 04.05.17 Down 38052.00 - 37700.00 38500.00
MCX GOLD AUG 27837.00 04.05.17 Down 28072.00 - 28600.00 29200.00
MCX COPPER AUG 380.85 29.06.17 UP 388.25 372.00 - 365.00
MCX LEAD JULY 146.95 23.06.17 UP 142.30 142.00 - 140.00
MCX ZINC JULY 180.20 23.06.17 UP 174.50 174.00 169.00
MCX NICKEL JULY 591.50 30.03.17 Down 653.00 - 610.00 630.00
MCX ALUMINIUM JULY 123.40 12.04.17 Sideways
MCX CRUDE OIL JULY 2964.00 15.06.17 Down 2903.00 - 2975.00 2985.00
MCX NATURAL GAS JULY 192.20 01.06.17 Down 194.30 - 202.00 205.00
TREND SHEET
*Closing as on 13.07.17
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
CRB index saw five months continuous decline and July is already trading in negative zone and
this is a concern for the market. However, in the last week market saw some recovery owing to
some upside in bullion, energy pack and some industrial commodities, but recovery was
marginal. Downside in dollar index also supported upside. Oil climbed as a lower 2018 forecast
on U.S. crude production and speculation of possible output curbs in Libya and Nigeria fueled
buying. The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its WTI and Brent oil-price
forecasts for this year and next and cut its 2018 U.S. production forecast by 1% to 9.90 million
barrels a day. Natural gas prices too strengthened. Limited buying was witnessed in bullion
counter. Gold prices rose after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank
would only gradually tighten monetary policy, curbing speculation that interest rates would
rise more than once this year. Appreciation in local currency capped the upside of this counter.
In base metals, copper and nickel prices strengthened, zinc was sideways whereas aluminum
and lead shed some of their previous gain. Copper futures rose, buoyed by a weaker U.S.
dollar. China's imports of copper and copper products for June were unchanged with May at
390,000 tonnes. Zinc prices climbed to their highest in more than three months on Wednesday
as the market worried about falling stocks in exchange warehouses, shortages and
expectations of stronger demand from China, but, couldn't sustain at the higher levels.
It was a bearish week for oil seeds and edible oil counter. The agriculture department in
Rajasthan has estimated mustard output in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) to rise by 21% on year to 3.94 mln
tn because of higher yields. Rajasthan is one of the major producers of mustard seed in the
country. In spices, jeera saw magical upside on strong export numbers. It was just few points
shy away from 20000 marks. Profit booking by participants at existing level, fall in demand
against adequate stocks position, mainly led to decline in cardamom prices at futures trade.
Amid pick up in demand at domestic spot market and restricted supplies from producing
regions, mentha oil prices traded up. Sugar prices saw no respite and it fell further on bearish
news. The Indian Sugar Mills Association has pegged the country's sugar output in 2017-18 (Oct-
Sep) at 25.1 mln tn, up 23.6% from 20.3 mln tn produced in the previous year.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
COMMODITY UNIT 13.07.17 DIFFERENCEQTY. QTY.
CASTOR SEED MT 50568.00 50955.00 387.00
CORIANDER NEW MT 23230.00 22542.00 -688.00
COTTON SEED O.C MT 14734.00 16802.00 2068.00
GUARGUM MT 16827.00 15435.00 -1392.00
GUARSEED MT 11676.00 11715.00 39.00
JEERA NEW MT 1007.00 1265.00 258.00
MAIZE MT 3732.00 4066.00 334.00
RM SEED MT 30071.00 29779.00 -292.00
SOYBEAN MT 36950.00 37284.00 334.00
TURMERIC MT 5351.00 5440.00 89.00
WHEAT MT 10540.00 10690.00 150.00
06.07.17 COMMODITY UNIT 13.07.17 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 0.90 1.00 0.10
COTTON BALES 39200.00 34600.00 -4600.00
GOLD KGS 20.00 20.00 0.00
GOLD MINI KGS 456.00 79.00 -377.00
GOLD GUINEA KGS 4.25 4.22 -0.03
MENTHA OIL KGS 949315.10 1310267.15 360952.05
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 8996.01 2873.19 -6122.82
05.07.17
•Futures contract in Chana (Symbol: CHANA) expiring in the months of September, October and November available on NCDEX for trading from July 14, 2017.
•China's iron ore imports rose 15% in June from a year ago as higher steel prices led to greater demand.
•US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 247,000 for the week ended July 8.
•OPEC's compliance with production cuts fell in June to its lowest levels in six months.
•Additional margin on both long side and short side reduced from existing 10% to 5% on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Jeera (JEERAUNJHA) w.e.f July 12, 2017.
•Approved warehouses of the NCDEX would now be available for withdrawal of commodities on all Saturdays except those Saturdays which are declared as a holiday by the Exchange.
•The agriculture department in Rajasthan has estimated mustard output in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) to rise by 21% on year to 3.94 million tons because of higher yields.
•The government had 32.3 million tons wheat in its stock, up 2.1 million tons on year and 2 million tons higher than the buffer norm of nearly 30.0 million tons, as of July 1. - FCI
•ISMA has pegged the country's sugar output in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) at 25.1 million tons, up 23.6% from 20.3 million tons produced in the previous year.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
2.80%
2.00%
1.42%
0.92% 0.88%
-3.64%-3.41%
-1.81%
-1.01%
-0.46%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
COTTON GOLD GUINEA CPORBD
PALMOLEIN LEAD NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL NICKELSILVER MICRO MENTHA OIL
7.25%
4.72%
1.56% 1.37% 1.31%
-3.57%
-3.04%
-2.36%
-1.61%-1.22%
- 6%
- 4%
- 2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
JEERA TURMERICRM SEEDOIL CAKE CORIANDER
MAIZE RABI BARLEY
NEW STEEL LONG SUGAR M KAPAS
COTTON SEEDOIL CAKE
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 07 13.07.17 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1920.00 1911.00 -0.47
COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 5809.00 5902.00 1.60
LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2270.00 2294.00 1.06
NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 8950.00 9185.00 2.63
ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 2778.00 2826.00 1.73
GOLD COMEX AUG 1209.70 1217.30 0.63
SILVER COMEX SEPT 15.43 15.69 1.69
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX AUG 44.23 46.08 4.18
NATURAL GAS NYMEX AUG 2.86 2.96 3.50
.07.17
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
06.07.17 13.07.17
ALUMINIUM 1397375 1392625 -4750
COPPER 315925 318550 2625
NICKEL 370284 376476 6192
LEAD 161925 158625 -3300
ZINC 284850 273675 -11175
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 07.07.17 13.07.17 CHANGE(%)
Soybean CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 1015.50 987.50 -2.76
Soy oil CBOT DEC Cent per Pound 33.32 33.50 0.54
CPO BMD SEPT MYR per MT 2554.00 2557.00 0.12
Sugar LIFFE AUG 10 cents per MT 418.10 418.20 0.02
13
SPOT PRICES (% change) Chana (gram) futures again on trading platform
Leading agri-commodity exchange NCDEX has relaunched the chana futures contract on July 14, 2017 after market regulator SEBI has lifted ban on futures trading in chana (gram) to ensure better price realisation for farmers. The decision was taken after a recent PMO meeting held to assess prices of farm commodities, supply and demand situation against the backdrop of bumper crop in 2016-17 crop year. SEBI in June last year had suspended introduction of any new contracts in chana to curb speculation and check prices.
The country has achieved record pulse production of over 224 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 crop years (July-June), sharply higher than the 164 lakh tons produced in the previous drought-hit year. Due to this, the pulses prices have declined in the domestic market from sharply high levels to even below the minimum support prices. By February 2017, chana prices had fallen down to the MSP set at Rs. 4000 per quintal though prices of the crop firmed up thereafter and have stayed a little above that level. By considering the situation of record pulse production and to ensure better prices to farmers for the rabi (winter) pulse crop, the Agriculture Ministry was in favour of allowing futures trade in chana. This would help farmers to know the future price of the commodity and hedge their produce against price risk. So with prices below or at minimum support price (MSP), SEBI has given a nod for it to be launched back.
The country has harvested more than 90 lakh tons chana in 2016-17 crop year (July-June). In 2016-17 crop season, with a bare minimum of 5 lakh tonnes of carry-in stock, the production of 224 lakh tonnes and the normal annual import of 50 lakh tonnes, the total supply is estimated to around 280 lakh tonnes. The government agencies have procured almost 20 lakh tonnes for buffer stock. The total consumption in 2016-2017 crop seasons is estimated to around 260 lakh tonnes as low prices bring more consumers.
Currently futures contract in Chana expiring in the months of September 2017, October 2017 and November 2017 are be available for trading from July 14, 2017.
Contract Specifications
-2.38
-1.69
-1.15
-0.93
-0.16
0.00
0.30
0.62
0.70
0.72
1.02
1.74
2.01
2.57
3.47
11.70
-4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00
SUGAR (KOLKATA)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
COTTON (KADI)
GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)
GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
WHEAT (DELHI)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
JEERA (UNJHA)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
Commodity Chana
Ticker Symbol CHANA
Tick Size Rs 1/-
Unit of trading 10MT
Delivery unit 10MT
Quotation/base value Rs. Per Quintal (100 kg)
Position limits Member level: Maximum of 300000 MT or 15 % of Market-wide Open Interest whichever is higher.
Client level: 30000 MT
Quantity variation +/- 5 %
Delivery center Desi Unprocessed Whole Raw Chana to be delivered at Bikaner & Ganj Basoda (Upto the radius of 100 kms from the municipal limits)
Price band The daily price fluctuation limit is (+/-) 3%. If the trade hits the prescribed daily price limit, there will be a cooling off period for 15 minutes. Trade will be allowed during this cooling off period within the price band. Thereafter, the price band would be raised by (+/-) 1% and trade will be resumed. No trade / order shall be permitted during the day beyond the revised limit of (+/-) 4%.
Maximum Order Size 500MT
Minimum Initial Margin 4 %
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 64.70 64.74 64.46 64.54
EUR/INR 73.82 74.34 73.50 73.56
GBP/INR 83.51 83.64 82.92 83.44
JPY/INR 56.83 57.20 56.53 57.16
News Flows of last week
12th July UK Jobless rate lowest since 1975
12th July India Inflation lowest since 2012
12th July India's Industrial output growth eases in May
13th July China Exports rise more than expected in June
13th July U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims edged down to 247,000
14th July Japan's Industrial Output falls more than forecast
EUR/INR (JULY) contract closed at 73.56 on 13th July'17. The contract made its high of 74.34 on 12th July'17 and a low of 73.50 on 13th July'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 73.55.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.94. One can sell below 73.50 for a target of 72.80 with the stop loss of 73.85.
(* NSE Currency future, Source: Spider, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
Market Stance
Rupee witnessed smart gains as against the dollar in the week gone by tracking
positive global cues and robust stock market. Heavy unwinding of dollars by
currency speculators and banks in the midst of abundant capitals inflows
predominantly supported the up move. Additionally the cues also came from
firm Asian currency market as expectations that the US Federal Reserve will
not tighten its monetary policy until the December meetings have largely
helped emerging market currencies like rupee to gain. Yellen said last week
that the US economy is healthy enough for the Fed to raise rates, though low
inflation and a low neutral rate may leave the central bank with diminished
leeway. Meanwhile, stretching in the glow of nonstop record breaking journey,
the NSE Nifty index- went past the impressive 9875-mark for the first time
ever with few points shy of 9,900. In worldwide trade, the greenback
remained under pressure amid uncertainty over the path of US monetary
policy after the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate projections.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (JULY) contract closed at 64.54 on 13th July'17. The contract made its high of 64.74 on 11th July'17 and a low of 64.46 on 13th July'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 64.72.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.65. One can sell below 64.50 for the target of 64.00 with the stop loss of 64.75.
GBP/INR (JULY) contract closed at 83.44 on 13thJuly'17. The contract made its high of 83.64 on 11th July'17 and a low of 82.92 on 12thJuly'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 83.42.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.51. One can buy above 83.80 for a target of 84.60 with the stop loss of 83.40.
JPY/INR (JULY) contract closed at 57.16 on 13th July'17. The contract made its high of 57.20 on 13th July'17 and a low of 56.53 on 11thJuly'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 57.34.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.49. One can sell below 56.95 for a target of 56.30 with the stop loss of 57.30.
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event Previous
17th July EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 1.217th July EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.318th July GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a 0.118th July GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a -1.318th July GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.618th July GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.918th July GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.319th July GBP Inflation Report Hearings19th July USD Housing Starts (MoM) 1.09219th July USD Housing Starts Change -5.520th July GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -1.220th July EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 020th July USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1.94520th July USD Initial Jobless Claims 247
GBP/INR JPY/INR
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IPO
IPO NEWS
*Closing price as on 13-07-2017
Company Sector M.Cap(In Rs Cr.) Issue Size (in Rs Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)
AU Small Financ Finance 18037.14 1912.00 10-Jul-17 358.00 525.00 691.15 93.06
GTPL Hathway Ltd Entertainment 1957.98 484.00 4-Jul-17 170.00 170.00 180.10 5.94
CDSL Services 4221.28 524.00 30-Jun-17 149.00 250.00 444.30 198.19
ERIS Lifesciences Health Care 9086.00 1741.00 29-Jun-17 603.00 612.00 679.25 12.65
Tejas Networks Limited Telecom Equipment 2882.55 776.00 26-Jun-17 257.00 257.00 331.30 164.30
PSP Projects Ltd Construction 1062.36 212 .00 29-May-17 210.00 195.00 289.15 37.69
HUDCO Housing Finance 18777.82 1220.00 18-May-17 60.00 73.55 97.70 62.83
S Chand and Company Printing & Stationary 1801.03 320.00 2-May-17 670.00 689.00 536.90 -19.87
Shankara Building Products Retail 2273.05 345.00 5-Apr-17 460.00 545.00 1082.15 135.25
*
IPO TRACKER
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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR
* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.
* For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office.
* Email us at [email protected]
FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES
(FOR TRUST ONLY) (FOR WOMEN ONLY)
HDFC PREMIUM DEPOSIT FOR TRUST & INSTITUTION
(UPTO RS. 5 CR.)
0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN IF APP ABOVE
RS. 50,000/- & 0.10% IF APP UPTO RS.50,000/-
20000/- BUT
40000/-
IN MONTHLY
0.50% ADD. INTEREST TO SR. CITIZEN, EMPLOYEES,SHAREHOLDERS AND PERSON INVESTING RS.5 LACSAND ABOVE - MAX. 0.50%
0.50% ADD. INTEREST TO SR. CITIZEN, EMPLOYEES,SHAREHOLDERS AND PERSON INVESTING RS.5 LACSAND ABOVE - MAX. 0.50%
INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE
Mutual funds see ̀ 16,600-cr outflow in June
Investors pulled out nearly 16,600 crore from various mutual fund schemes in June, making it the second consecutive monthly outflow, primarily due to huge
redemption from income and liquid segments. In comparison, mutual funds saw an outflow of close to 41,000 crore in May. Prior to that, 1.51 lakh crore were
invested in April.
Mutual Fund industry's total folio count almost 6 crore in Jun 2017
According to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India, total folio count of the mutual fund industry stood at 5.82 crore in Jun 2017, owing mainly to
a bullish trend in the equity market and initiatives by individual mutual funds to involve investors in balanced funds. Folio count of the industry was 5.72 crore in
May 2017.
AMFI targets industry AUM of 95 lakh crore by 2025
The Association of Mutual Funds in India has targeted an industry asset under management of 95 lakh crore and investor folios of 130 million by 2025. Industry
officials stated that the continuous investor awareness programmes are helping to get new investors into the mutual fund fold.
Axis MF to launch two new products this year; eyes more folios
After making its entry into the top 10 fund houses in the country, Axis Mutual Fund plans to launch a couple of new products falling under the open-ended
category later in the year . Similarly, the fund house was aiming at increasing its folio count under the retail segment to 50 lakh from 22 lakh at present over the
next three years. Folios are numbers designated for individual investor accounts, though one investor can have multiple accounts. Moreover, the fund house is
looking at increasing its systematic investment plan (SIP) folio count to 10 lakh from 6 lakh now. With AAUM at 63,599.17 crore in the April-June quarter, Axis MF
has moved to top 10 ranking among the 42 active fund houses in the country.
Sebi extends deadline for comments on investment adviser norms
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has extended the deadline till July 31 for public comments on proposed norms on investment advisers, under
which they will have to segregate their advisory and product distribution businesses.The initial deadline was July 14. "Based on the representations received
from various bodies/associations seeking extension of the timeline to furnish the comments/suggestions, it has been decided to grant time till July 31, 2017 for
submitting the comments on the consultation paper," Sebi said in a statement. On June 22, Sebi came out with a proposal to amend its norms for investment
advisers, under which they will have to segregate their advisory and product distribution businesses even as their registration rules would be relaxed.
Edelweiss Mutual Fund changes terms and conditions of Goal Progression SIP
Edelweiss Mutual Fund has made changes in the terms and conditions of Goal Progression SIP, an event-based trigger facility, effective from Jul 10, 2017. The
facility enables the shareholder to specify a goal along with the target amount which the investor aims to hit by investing through Systematic Investment Plan,
and alerts the shareholder once the target amount as specified by the investor is accomplished.
Gold ETFs witness outflow of over 200 crore in Q1
According to the data from Association of Mutual Funds of India, Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) witnessed outflow of 218 crore during the first quarter of
2017-18. Gold ETF had seen outflow of 228 crore for the same period last year, and an outflow of 81 crore in Jun 2017. Gold ETF, an instrument based on price
movements, saw the outflow as investors preferred equities over it.
Invesco Mutual Fund announces change in key personnel
Mr. Sunil Koppar has been appointed as the head of credit research of Invesco Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd., effective from Jul 3, 2017, while Mr. Anunaya
Kumar has been appointed as the head of retail sales of the same company, effective from Jul 4, 2017.
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MUTUAL FUND
NEW FUND OFFER
Scheme Name Sundaram Long Term Micro Cap Tax Advantage Fund - Sr. - VI - Reg. (G)
Fund Type Close-Ended
Fund Class Growth
Opens on 23-Jun-2017
Closes on 22-Sep-2017
Investment Objective To generate capital appreciation over a period of ten years by predominantly investing in equity and equity-related instruments
of companies that can be termed as micro-cap.
Min. Investment Rs. 5000
Fund Manager S Krishnakumar / Dwijendra Srivastava
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Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 13/07/2017Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Motilal Oswal MOSt Focused Long Term F - Reg - G 16.46 21-Jan-2015 466.89 7.02 26.32 37.72 N.A 22.28 2.31 0.92 0.22 56.55 39.23 N.A 4.22
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund - Reg - G 15.11 28-Dec-2015 389.03 11.62 25.84 36.68 N.A 30.68 2.00 0.98 0.23 59.37 34.48 4.33 1.82
Principal Tax Savings Fund 196.28 31-Mar-1996 327.64 10.36 25.39 31.57 18.18 17.24 2.56 1.12 0.16 48.98 41.86 4.07 5.10
IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund - Reg - G 51.61 26-Dec-2008 600.93 10.17 26.76 29.36 19.31 21.16 2.29 0.96 0.07 50.60 32.75 10.71 5.95
HSBC Tax Saver Equity Fund - Growth 36.26 05-Jan-2007 184.91 8.96 25.80 28.09 17.41 13.02 2.38 1.06 0.13 51.40 30.68 13.03 4.89
HDFC Long Term Advantage Fund - G 321.65 02-Jan-2001 1418.23 8.46 20.46 27.22 15.71 23.35 2.10 0.94 0.12 60.46 23.74 8.77 7.03
HDFC Taxsaver - Growth 503.20 13-Jun-1996 6320.57 5.97 18.93 26.97 13.71 27.38 2.43 1.08 0.08 66.69 20.07 2.53 10.72
TAX Fund Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
L&T Emerging Businesses Fund - Reg - G 24.46 12-May-2014 955.83 12.08 33.74 48.01 28.84 32.57 2.66 0.99 0.39 N.A 53.82 31.90 14.29
DSP BlackRock Natural Reso. & New Ene. F - Reg - G 31.28 25-Apr-2008 219.03 1.84 13.69 45.12 23.41 13.16 2.73 0.97 0.31 84.96 8.19 0.88 5.97
L&T Midcap Fund - Reg - Growth 134.98 09-Aug-2004 901.44 11.64 30.34 42.16 28.48 22.29 2.46 0.93 0.27 21.44 51.45 11.05 16.05
Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 39.08 16-Sep-2010 3753.78 7.26 26.93 41.30 28.71 22.10 2.84 1.05 0.33 3.27 38.93 46.89 10.91
Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund - G 47.12 09-Jul-2010 3821.28 9.63 26.98 37.89 30.56 24.72 2.36 0.98 0.27 31.35 61.10 6.07 1.47
IDFC Sterling Equity Fund - Reg - G 50.07 07-Mar-2008 1417.48 9.62 31.35 37.20 21.20 18.79 2.60 1.00 0.16 19.59 59.45 16.68 4.29
Tata Equity P/E Fund - Reg - Growth 127.55 29-Jun-2004 1188.64 5.81 21.82 35.32 21.72 21.55 2.45 1.01 0.20 50.61 36.80 5.89 6.70
EQUITY (Diversified) Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Annualised
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
UTI Dynamic Bond Fund - Reg - Growth 19.82 23-Jun-2010 1529.43 30.00 10.27 2.77 7.85 13.53 11.24 10.18 27.42 0.14 9.42 7.83
ICICI Prudential LTP - Growth 21.27 20-Jan-2010 2206.23 25.90 8.61 2.28 8.14 13.39 12.57 10.61 31.91 0.15 11.96 7.44
Canara Robeco Dynamic Bond Fund - Reg - G 19.53 29-May-2009 260.55 29.02 11.30 3.37 6.84 12.92 11.22 8.58 28.12 0.12 9.49 6.94
UTI Bond Fund - Growth 51.60 04-May-1998 1843.24 29.12 10.67 2.68 7.21 12.81 11.09 8.92 27.80 0.12 9.56 7.82
DHFL Pramerica Dynamic Bond Fund - G 1632.92 12-Jan-2012 181.39 34.35 11.76 6.79 8.30 12.70 11.70 9.32 28.55 0.11 15.05 7.11
ICICI Prud. Dynamic Bond F - Prem Plus - G 20.29 14-Jan-2010 1322.69 24.74 12.25 6.14 8.81 12.53 12.55 9.89 23.58 0.21 7.21 7.54
SBI Dynamic Bond Fund - Growth 21.35 09-Feb-2004 3049.92 25.70 5.95 0.74 8.22 12.50 11.36 5.81 24.77 0.16 N.A 7.11
INCOME FUND
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India STIP - Growth 3489.72 31-Jan-2002 8139.39 16.17 14.20 10.48 9.71 10.79 9.66 8.42 13.13 0.11 2.21 10.28
L&T Short Term Income Fund - Reg - G 17.87 04-Dec-2010 724.36 12.49 11.55 9.07 9.04 10.13 9.64 9.18 6.79 0.34 1.68 8.55
Baroda Pioneer Short Term Bond Fund - G 17.66 30-Jun-2010 478.58 11.07 9.22 7.26 8.36 9.41 9.19 8.41 4.95 0.33 1.35 8.13
Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 21.13 25-Mar-2009 10362.50 14.99 12.73 8.06 7.91 9.96 10.33 9.43 13.61 0.19 3.71 8.83
DHFL Pramerica Short Maturity Fund - G 30.60 21-Jan-2003 1564.38 13.79 9.60 7.10 7.86 9.41 9.35 8.03 8.45 0.22 2.90 8.17
HDFC Regular Savings Fund - Growth 33.19 28-Feb-2002 4737.67 12.62 9.82 7.12 7.25 9.14 9.81 8.11 6.87 0.29 1.75 8.27
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt F - Reg - G 19.34 01-Jan-2010 7365.75 21.03 11.06 6.13 7.00 10.51 10.22 9.15 17.77 0.17 N.A 7.73
SHORT TERM FUND Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth 488.48 01-Feb-1994 23343.90 5.61 14.53 23.33 14.41 19.35 2.07 0.10 52.96 14.15 6.69 26.20
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 142.45 11-Sep-2000 11349.40 7.79 16.53 22.53 17.36 17.08 1.60 0.11 42.93 22.48 1.21 33.38
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 120.70 03-Nov-1999 11734.40 5.65 11.86 21.64 16.61 15.11 1.59 0.10 51.78 12.44 0.99 34.79
Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 51.80 08-Jun-2005 5955.74 8.47 17.85 21.18 15.98 14.55 1.73 0.08 56.78 10.63 1.31 31.28
DSP BlackRock Balanced Fund - Growth 140.09 27-May-1999 4255.99 5.22 13.95 20.61 17.67 15.66 1.80 0.08 48.67 22.31 2.90 26.12
L&T India Prudence Fund - Reg - G 25.14 07-Feb-2011 4428.18 6.87 17.50 20.58 17.77 15.41 1.60 0.10 44.36 20.46 3.79 31.38
Mirae Asset Prudence Fund - Reg - G 12.84 29-Jul-2015 526.09 6.86 15.55 20.41 N.A 13.62 1.58 0.08 63.31 8.72 1.67 26.30
BALANCED
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Mr. Anurag Bansal (Director, SMC Global Securities Ltd.) sharing his views during SME Activator Summit organized
by The Economic Times on 29th June 2017 at Hotel Trident, BKC, Mumbai.
To register, visit www.smcphc.in
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