indian emissions present day (2013) - iitb.ac.in. india 2013 emissions... · indian emissions...

Global Burden of Disease – Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD-MAPS), IIT Bombay, January 18-19, 2016, Mumbai

Indian emissions – Present day (2013)

Pankaj Sadavarte, Chandra Venkataraman, Sarath Guttikunda

Department of Chemical EngineeringClimate studies – Interdisciplinary ProgramIndian Institute of Technology Bombay

Energy sectors

Industry Transport Residential Agriculture Informal

• Power (coal)• Power (Oil-gas)• Heavy industry• Light industry

• On-road gasoline

• On-road diesel

• Railways

• Cooking (biofuels)

• Cooking

(LPG /kero)

• Lighting

• Water heat

•Space heat

• DG set

• Agriculture residue burning

• D. Tractors

• D. Pumps

• Brick production

• Food-agro processing

PC boiler, Stokers, oil-fired boilers, gas turbines, coke ovens, refineries,…

2-wheelers, 3-wheelers, Cars, LDV, HDV, Buses, CNG-vehicles, Super emitters, age distribution

Traditionalbiomass stove, Kerosene stove, LPG stove, Kerosene wick lamps

Open field burning, diesel tractors, diesel pumps

Bull’s Trench Kiln – Fixed and moving chimney, Clamps, Zig-zagfiring, VSBKs, wood-boilers

Sec

Sou

rce

Cat

ego

rie

sTe

chn

olo

gie

sBroad sector and source categories

Dispersed sources are added, like space heating, water heating, diesel genset, diesel tractors, diesel pumps, food and agro processing industries.

National emission estimate

• Residential cooking, agriculture and informal industry are major source of BC,OC, PM2.5 and NMVOC.• Industry and transport consuming fossil-fuel emits high NOX and SO2emissions.

Process emissions from heavy industryPM2.5 SO2

NOx NMVOC

Process emissions include:Cement – Clinker production (PM2.5, NOx and NMVOC)

Fertilizer – Ammonia production (SO2, NMVOC)

Iron and steel – Coke oven, Electric Arc Furnace, Induction Furnace (PM2.5, SO2, NMVOC)

Non-ferrous – Sulphideprocessing emissions, Fugitive emissions (SO2, PM2.5)

Refineries – FCCU, coking unit, flaring, fugitive and production processing, service station (SO2, NMVOC)

14% 44%

Sectoral share of emissions

• Large PM2.5 emissions arises from high use of biofuel and biomass in residential (cooking,water heating, space heating), agriculture sectors followed by thermal power.• High PM2.5 emissions from heavy industry especially from process activities.• Power and industry sectors predominantly reflect high SO2 emissions.• High NOx from power, diesel transport whereas biofuels, gasoline and brick emits high VOCs.

9%

48%13%

3%

14%

13%

PM2.5 = 7.9 Tg/y

17%4%

45%1%1%

32%

SO2 = 8.2 Tg/y

11%7%

41%16%

15%10%

NOX = 9.5 Tg/y

16%

49%2%

16%

13%4%

NMVOC = 14.4 Tg/y

Energy consumption by fuel typeTotal energy cons.: 28 EJ

Coal consumption: 676 Mn tonne

• Total energy – 28 EJ• ~50% of the energy consumed by coal used in power, industry and brickproduction.• ~25% of the energy consumed by biofuels in residential sector in cooking,space heating, water heating activities.• 20% energy is consumed by oil and gas in transport, residential lighting andindustry sector.

Emissions by fuel type and source category contribution Coal

Oil/gas

Biofuel

Biomass

• High particulate emissions from biofuel used in dispersed source of residentialand informal industry (i.e. 48%) followed by coal (30%).• Coal based thermal power and heavy industry each emit 13% PM2.5.• 90% end-of-pipe control is assumed in thermal power and heavy industry sector.• Coal contributes to 80% SO2 emissions and 20% from rest of the fuel.• Currently no legislation to control SO2 emissions from thermal power.• Low SO2 emissions from transport due to improved BS-III fuel with low sulfurcontent in diesel and gasoline.

SO2PM2.5

Emissions by fuel type and source category contribution

• Fossil fuel contribute to 90% NOx of which coal make 53% and oil/gas 37%.• High NOX emissions from power plants. Currently no plant is known to use low-NOX burners.• Diesel based vehicles emitting 1/4th of the total NOX emissions.• 50% NMVOC emissions from biofuel in dispersed sources of residential andinformal industry sectors.• Gasoline based vehicles emits high VOC with fugitives from transport depots,service stations and from industry especially chemical & petrochemicals.

Coal

Oil/gas

Biofuel

Biomass

NOx NMVOC

Uncertainties and comparison in emissions (Power+Ind+Transport)

Methodology:Uncertainty in fuelcons./activity data wasassumed to be normallydistributed.

Uncertainty in emissionfactor was log-normallydistributed.

Uncertainty in emissionswere estimated followingthe Sum-of-quadraturerule.

• Compared to dispersed and informal sectors, the formal industries and transport sectorhave less uncertainties in all the above emissions.• High uncertainty in PM2.5 and NOX are attributed by thermal power, whereas in case ofNMVOC, they are from light industry and gasoline vehicles.

Uncertainties and comparison in emissions (Residential + Agriculture + Informal industry)

• High uncertainty in dispersed source, is mainly due to uncertainty in the fuel estimation.Since, a bottom-up approach is followed the uncertainty in each input data is propagated.• Literature based comparison are within the upper and lower bounds of the mean in all thesectors (power, industry, residential, agriculture and informal sector).

Added dispersed emissions. Units Gg/yPM2.5Space heating – 919 Water heating – 477 Brick (wood) – 109 DG set – 26 Ag.diesel use – 106

SO2Space heating – 131 Water heating – 1 Brick (wood) – 3 DG set – 3 Ag.diesel use – 6

• High uncertainty in dispersed source, is mainly due to uncertainty in the fuel estimation.Since, a bottom-up approach is followed the uncertainty in each input data is propagated.• Literature based comparison are within the upper and lower bounds of the mean in all thesectors (power, industry, residential, agriculture and informal sector).

Uncertainties and comparison in emissions (Residential + Agriculture + Informal industry)

Added dispersed emissions. Units Gg/yNMVOCSpace heating – 1393 Water heating – 1163 Brick (wood) – 899 DG set – 30 Ag.diesel use – 137

NOXSpace heating – 43 Water heating – 10 Brick (wood) – 55 DG set – 372 Ag.diesel use – 997

0

200

400

600

MAM OND JF

Emis

sio

ns

(Gg

/y)

PM2.5 IITB (Agres) 2013

GFED (Agres) 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

MAM OND JF

Emis

sio

ns

(Gg

/y)

SO2

0

200

400

600

MAM OND JF

Emis

sio

ns

(Gg

/y)

NOX

0

200

400

600

800

1000

MAM OND JF

Emis

sio

ns

(Gg

/y)

NMVOC

Annual emission ratio = IITB/GFED = 1030/201 = 5.13

Annual emission ratio = IITB/GFED= 75/13 = 5.83



(Bracket values give ratio of IITB to GFED4s)

(3.6)

(8.2) (9.6)

(4.0)

(9.3) (10.9)

(3.1)

(7.2) (8.5)

(3.8)

(8.8) (10.3)

Comparing Ag.res.burning emissions (IITB vs. GFED4s)

Conclusion and simulation plans•STATUS

• Handed over all the emissions files for PM2.5, BC, OC, OPM2.5, SO2, NOX,NMVOC and speciation• Fugitive dust emission files received from Sarath, need to handover to GBD group.

•Sectoral distribution to be considered for simulation:• Power• Heavy industry• Other industry (Light industry + Brick production + Informal industry)• Transport (Gasoline + Diesel)• Residential (Cooking + Lighting + Space heating + Water heating + DG set)• Agriculture (Open residue burning + Ag. Diesel use)

• Proposed sensitivity analysis for agricultural residue burning• IITB estimates for agriculture residue burning are a factor ~5 higher than GFED4s• Simulate OND (when agri res major active fire category over India).

– Case 1: GFED4S all emissions as is– Case 2: 5 x GFED4S agricultural fire emissions over the Indian

domain, all others same as base case

indian emissions present day (2013) - iitb.ac.in. india 2013 emissions... · indian emissions...

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