indian ocean - the most important global commons in the world

1

The most important global commons in the world?

The Indian Ocean waters cover an estimated 73.5 million square km, incorporating half the world’s latitudes and seven of its time zones, along with 48 independent littoral and island countries consisting of 2.6 billion people – some 39 percent of the world’s population.

10/20/14Mohan Guruswamy

Meet Clamator Jacobinus. aka the Jacobin cuckoo, Pied cuckoo, or Pied crested cuckoo or Piu-piu, chatak.


The Cradle of Mankind. Olduvai Gorge is a paleo-anthropological site in the eastern Serengeti Plain in Tanzania. It is a steep-sided ravine consisting of two branches that have a combined length of about 30 miles (48 km) and are 295 feet (90 metres) deep. Deposits exposed in the sides of the gorge cover a time span from about 2.1 million to 15,000 years ago. The deposits have yielded the fossil remains of more than 60 hominins (members of the human lineage), providing the most continuous known record of human evolution during the past 2 million years.


Out of Africa. Early members of the Homo genus, i.e. Homo ergaster, Homo erectus and Homo heidelbergensis, migrated from Africa around 1.9 million years ago, and dispersed throughout most of the Old World, reaching as far as Southeast Asia.Homo sapiens are supposed to have appeared in East Africa around 200,000 years ago. From there they spread around the world. An exodus from Africa over the Arabian Peninsula around 125,000 years ago brought modern humans to Eurasia, with one group rapidly settling coastal areas around the Indian Ocean and one group migrating north to steppes of Central Asia.


Modern language originated about 150,000 years ago, possibly due to a sudden mutation. Noam Chomsky, the MIT professor and American linguist philosopher, cognitive scientist, logician, sometimes described as the "father of modern linguistics” and also a major figure in analytic philosophy, argues that a single chance mutation occurred in one individual on the order of 100,000 years ago, instantaneously installing the language faculty (a component of the mind-brain) in "perfect" or "near-perfect" form. Others say it evolved in a “gradualistic” way.

Trade originated with human communication in prehistoric times. Trading was the main facility of prehistoric people, who bartered goods and services from each other before the innovation of modern day currency. Peter Watson, intellectual historian, dates the history of long-distance commerce from circa 50,000 years ago.

10/20/14Mohan Guruswamy 5

Suddenly we began to talk!

Long-range trade routes first appeared in the 3rd millennium BC, when Sumerians in Mesopotamia traded with the Harappan civilization of the Indus Valley.

From the beginning of Greek civilization until the fall of the Roman empire in the 5th century, a financially lucrative trade brought valuable spice to Europe from the far east, including India and China. Roman commerce allowed its empire to flourish and endure. The Roman empire produced a stable and secure transportation network that enabled the shipment of trade goods without fear of significant piracy.

Vasco da Gama pioneered the European Spice trade in 1498 when he reached Calicut after sailing around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of the African continent. Prior to this, the flow of spice into Europe from India was controlled by Islamic powers, especially Egypt.

The spice trade was of major economic importance and helped spur the Age of Discovery in Europe. Spices brought to Europe from the Eastern world were some of the most valuable commodities for their weight, sometimes rivaling gold.

The world impact of Indian trade.


Lothal was one of the most prominent cities of the ancient Indus valley civilization and dates from 2400 BCE. It was discovered in 1954.

Lothal's dock—the world's earliest known, connected the city to an ancient course of the Sabarmati river on the trade route between Harappan cities in Sindh and the peninsula of Saurashtra, when the surrounding Kutch desert of today was a part of the Arabian Sea.

Lothal was a vital and thriving trade centre in ancient times, with its trade of beads, gems and valuable ornaments reaching the far corners of West Asia and Africa.


The first is the Indus Valley Civilization. It was a Bronze Age civilization (3300–1300 BCE; mature period 2600–1900 BCE) in the northwestern region of the Indian subcontinent.

Along with Ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia it was one of three early civilizations of the Old World, and of the three the most widespread.

It may have been the first civilization to use wheeled transport . These advances may have included bullock carts that are identical to those seen throughout South Asia today.

As well as boats. Most of these boats were probably small, flat-bottomed craft, perhaps driven by sail, similar to those one can see on the Indus River today.

First of the three great early recorded activities


Slavery: The second great economic activity

Slavery can be traced back to the earliest records, such as the Code of Hammurabi (c. 1760 BC), which refers to it as an established institution.

Slavery typically requires a shortage of labor, developed production technologies like weaving, extraction of minerals, and a surplus of land to be viable.

Bits and pieces from history indicate that Arabs enslaved over 150 million African people and at least 50 million from other parts of the world.



The third great activity was migration.

Some recent genomic studies suggest that non-African admixture in the Horn of Afrithat ca (HOA) region occurred primarily about 3,000 years ago, but new research suggests the move might have come much earlier. Scientists studying mitochondrial, Y chromosome and genome-wide data suggest that there were probably multiple migrations as early as 23,000 years ago.

New findings, published in the American Journal of Human Genetics, show that the human inhabitants of Madagascar are unique. Half of their genetic lineages derive from settlers from the region of Borneo, with the other half from East Africa.

Linguists have established that the origins of Malagsy spoken in Madagascar suggest Indonesian connections, because its closest relative is the Maanyan language, spoken in southern Borneo. Migration from the Sunda Islands began around 200 BC.

The ancient Chinese export machine.

In early years, by the time of Confucius ((551–479 BC), Chinese people traded salt, iron, fish, cattle, and silk.

To facilitate trade, the First Emperor instituted a uniform weights and measure system and standardized the road width so carts could bring trade goods from one region to the next.

Through the famous Silk Road, they also traded externally: goods from China could wind up in Greece. At the eastern end of the route, the Chinese traded with Indians, providing them with silk and getting lapis lazuli, coral, jade, glass, and pearls in exchange.

10/20/14

11

Mohan Guruswamy

China’s first manufactured export.The name "china" is also used for porcelain because China was, for a while, the only source for porcelain in the West. Porcelain was made, perhaps as early as the Eastern Han period ((25 AD - 220 AD), from kaolin clay covered with petuntse glaze, fired together in high heat so the glaze is fused and doesn't chip off.


The IOR weather conditions helped in evolving seaborne trade and intercourse.

The physical environmental conditions over the sea and the external prevailing weather helped the seafarers reach places up to the west coast of India.

Merchantmen sailing from the east used to arrive at Cochin in November/ December and after unloading and picking up cargo and fresh supplies headed off towards Eudaemon (Aden) and Dilmun (Bahrain) around February. On the reverse journey too the same pattern was observed.

The winds that generate the waves contributes to reduction in the otherwise required travel time for the sailings between any given two points of departure and arrival. The natural and external forces helped the sailors making their journey more economical and energy efficient.

The Gods smile on Cochin.


The domestication of camel allows Arabian merchants to control long distance trade in spices and silk from the Far East.

The Egyptians trade in the Red Sea, importing spices from the "Land of Punt" and from Arabia. Indian goods like gold, silver, ivory and precious stones are brought in Arabian vessels to Aden. The cargo from the India and Egypt trade is shipped to Aden.

With the establishment of Roman Egypt, the Romans initiated trade with India.

In Java and Borneo, the introduction of Indian culture created a demand for aromatics.

Following the demise of the incense trade Yemen took to the export of coffee via the Red Sea port of al-Mocha.

How the camel changed India.



According to the Peripus of the Erythraean Sea, maritime trade connected Somalis in the Mogadishu area with other communities along the Indian Ocean coast as early as the 1st century CE.

Somalia was the pre-eminent power in the Horn of Africa during the 12th, 13th and 14th centuries. The Mogadishu Sultanate maintained a vast trading network, dominated the regional gold trade, minted its own coins, and left an extensive architectural legacy in present-day southern Somalia. The name "Mogadishu" is held to be derived from the Arabic Maq'ad Shah ("The seat of the Shah”)

Ibn Battuta visited in 1331. He described Mogadishu as "an exceedingly large city" with many rich merchants, which was famous for its high quality fabric that it exported to Egypt, among other places

From 1416 -30 Zheng He visited Mogadishu five times. Vasco Da Gama, who passed by Mogadishu in the 15th century, noted that it

was a large city with houses of four or five storeys high and big palaces in its centre and many mosques with cylindrical minarets.

In the 16th century, Duarte Barbosa noted that many ships from the Kingdom of Cambay sailed to Mogadishu with cloth and spices for which they in return received gold, wax and ivory.

The onetime greatness of Somalia.

8/12/12Observer Research Foundation 16

Shares of WGDP from 0-2005?

The brave new world to come!

8/12/12

17

Mohan Guruswamy


The major contributors to WGDP growth 2000-10


The rise of the middle class.

India’s late surge!


20


China vs. India: Age & Population structure 2000-35China vs. India: Age & Population structure 2000-35

8/12/12Observer Research Foundation 23

Countries with the largest increases and decline of populations in this century.

6/9/13Mohan Guruswamy ORF 24

India’s top 10 export markets.


The nature of India’s International Trade.

WGDP and World Oil growths go hand in hand.


26

One fifth of global trade is in oil.


Oil is now the single most important driver of world economics, politics and technology.

The rise in importance was due to the invention of the internal combustion engine, huge expansion of private and public transportation and the rise in commercial aviation.

And the importance of petroleum to industrial organic chemistry, particularly the synthesis of plastics, fertilizers, solvents, adhesives and pesticides.

Oil is now the basis of about half the World GDP of over $85 trillion.



Can you see why we need a bigger Navy?

India imports $160 billion worth of oil now and exactly three quarters of this comes from countries in the IOR. Saudi Arabia’s share is 18%, Iran 16%, Kuwait 10%, Iraq 9%, and UAE 8%. The IOR is India’s lifeline and lifeblood.

The net import of crude oil & petroleum products is 146.70 million tons worth of Rs 6611.40 billions or about $109 billion.

More than half of India’s $191bn trade deficit in the financial year to March $109bn - was made up of oil, with India importing 82 per cent of its oil needs, mostly from the Gulf.

India’s oil dependency.


10/20/1431

India’s oil dependency.

Mohan Guruswamy


India’s energy scenario.

OIL is India’s biggest business.

Today the world’s biggest stand-alone refinery is the Reliance refinery at Jamnagar with a refining capacity of about 1.5 million barrels a day. The Essar refinery at Jamnagar refines a further 0.5 million barrels a day. Together they make Jamnagar one of the world’s great refining centers.

India’s number 1 export item is petroleum products, mostly

Petrol and Diesel. India now exports the equivalent of about 300,000 barrels a day. Last year these exports accounted for $60.3 billion dollars or a fifth or our total exports of $306 billion. This sector accounts for almost a third of India’s total international trade. All of it is by sea.

10/20/14

33

Mohan Guruswamy

Vulnerable to choke holds.

The sea lanes in the Indian Ocean are considered

among the most strategically important in the world—

According to the Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, more than 80 percent of the world’s seaborne trade in oil transits through Indian Ocean choke points:

40 percent passing through the Strait of Hormuz,

35 percent through the Strait of Malacca and

8 percent through the Bab el-Mandab Strait.

10/20/14

34

Mohan Guruswamy

The Rising Trend of Remittances.


35

Regional sources of the River Remittance.


36

A vivid graphic of oil shipping volumes.



International Trade as a % of GDP.

38


The centrality of trade in China’s rise.

39

“But just over the horizon runs one of the world’s great trade arteries, the shipping lanes where thousands of vessels carry oil from the Middle East and raw materials to Asia, returning with television sets, toys and sneakers for European consumers.

These tankers provide 80 percent of China’s oil and 65 percent of India’s — fuel desperately needed for the two countries’ rapidly growing economies. Japan, too, is almost totally dependent on energy supplies shipped through the Indian Ocean.”

India’s ocean or the global commons?

10/20/14

41

Mohan Guruswamy

Compared with other waters of Asia like the East China Sea and South China Sea, a distinctive feature of the Indian Ocean is that it lacks a “dominant power”. Although India is a major country in the littoral area, it is often reluctant to take a leading role in the security arrangements of the Indian Ocean region.

Evidently, this “dominant power” vacuum in the region has invited extra regional powers into the area. It could even be argued that an extra-regional power, the United States, is the most significant naval power in the Indian Ocean region.

The absence of a “dominant power” at least to ensure security of the sea lines, exposes the region to the contours of power politics in the 21st century. Robert Kaplan, like many western thinkers, foresees a power rivalry between India and China in the Indian Ocean for dominance.

However, due to the lack of military wherewithal and political will India may not be involved in such a rivalry. India has never dreamt of becoming a hegemon in the region. At the same time India tries to avoid to be seen as part of any bloc to contain any other power, and is trying to ensure that the water should not be a battleground for great power rivalry.

10/20/1442

The absence of a dominant power.

Mohan Guruswamy


Japanese carrier group attacks Sri Lanka April 5th-9th, 1942

10/20/1444

Japanese Carrier groups attack on Ceylon. April 5th-9th, 1942 - Early in April Adm Ozawa with carrier "Ryujo" and six cruisers made for the Bay of Bengal and east coast of India. In a matter of days 23 ships of 112,000 tons were sunk. Japanese submarines sank a further five off the Indian west coast.

The next attack and the real one came from the carrier strike force of Adm Nagumo with five Pearl Harbor carriers - "Akagi", "Hiryu", "Soryu", "Shokaku" and "Zuikaku" - plus four battleships and three cruisers.The Japanese fleet was first sighted on the 4th south of Ceylon, and shipping cleared from the ports. In the morning of the 5th a heavy raid on Colombo sank destroyer "TENEDOS" and armed merchant cruiser "HECTOR". Heavy cruisers "CORNWALL" and "DORSETSHIRE" were to the southwest, sailing from Colombo to rejoin the Royal Navy's fast group were sunk by aircraft attacks.

As Adm Somerville's two groups searched for the Japanese from a position between Addu Atoll and Ceylon, they circled round to the east. On the 9th, Japanese aircraft sank the carrier "HERMES", Australian destroyer "VAMPIRE" and corvette "HOLLYHOCK”.

Mohan Guruswamy


USS Enterprise threatens India December 1971

10/20/1446

The US Navy in the Indian Ocean.

In 1971, the a carrier group led by USS Enterprise, in an apparent bid to intimidate India and/or to encourage the Chinese to strike across the Himalaya’s, entered the Bay of Bengal from the Strait of Malacca and set course towards Chittagong.

One of the first major operations in which USN ships were involved was Operation Eagle Claw launched by Nimitz in 1980 after she had deployed to the Indian Ocean in response to the taking of hostages in the US embassy in Tehran.

Carriers in operation in Operation Desert Shield and Operation Desert Storm played mostly supporting roles, with Roosevelt playing an active part in combat operations.

In October 1993, Lincoln deployed to Somalia to assist UN humanitarian operations there while supporting US troops during Operation Restore Hope. The same ship also participated in Operation Vigilant Sentinel in the Persian Gulf in 1995.

After the 11 September attacks, Vinson and Roosevelt were among the first warships to participate in Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.

Mohan Guruswamy

In the first military stand-off between the two Asian giants since 1986, an Indian submarine and two Chinese warships came close to a confrontation in the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, but the situation was resolved when the submarine left the site, the South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday.

The Indian submarine was reportedly trying to obtain crucial naval data from China's two most advanced warships, claimed the South China Morning Post.

An Indian Navy spokesperson told rediff.com that such an incident did happen but denied that an Indian submarine was involved.???

India, China face-off in the Indian Ocean on February 04, 2009 18:03 IST.

10/20/14

47

Mohan Guruswamy

The potential for confrontation is fueled by China's historical nostalgia. As if to declare that centuries-long inward period over, Beijing staged elaborate celebrations in 2005 to mark the 600-year anniversary of the first Zheng He expedition. The Ming voyages are now an inextricable part of Chinese nationalist lore — and its populist claim to the Indian Ocean.

PLAN ships now operate in the Arabian Sea. Indian media reported that a type-093 attack nuclear submarine was on deployment (December 2013 to February 2014) in the Indian Ocean and that the Chinese Ministry of National Defense had informed the Indian military attaché in Beijing of the submarine deployment to show ‘respect for India’.

The times they are a changing?

10/20/14

48

Mohan Guruswamy

There’s nothing surprising about a rising power finding subtle ways to handle complex problems. But before China’s breakout from poverty to arguably the world’s No. 2 economy, its default position on foreign policy was to restate the principle of non-interference in other nations’ affairs and focus largely on its neighborhood.

Now that it has the military resources and the incentive to start thinking of how to secure and defend interests around the globe. Today, its interests include access to oil in places like Sudan and Iran, safe shipping around the Horn of Africa, the ability to manipulate its currency for its own gain.

And for the first time, the world is seeing a distinct range of behaviors, from aggressive to passive-aggressive to diplomatic, in places that 20 years ago China’s leaders rarely thought about.

10/20/1449

The three faces of China!

Mohan Guruswamy

Beijing means to prove that it is a reliable defender of the global maritime order by tangible deeds. For some time Chinese strategists have debated the part that "non-war military operations" (fei zhanzheng junshi xingdong) can play in coping with nontraditional security threats like piracy.

Analysts contend that combating such challenges will not only fulfill China's responsibilities as a rising great power, but also help it accrue "soft power" over time, enhancing its attractiveness vis-à-vis fellow Asian nations

Maritime security is interlaced with Chinese soft power. Speaking at Cambridge University in February 2009, Premier Wen Jiabao conjured up Zheng He's "peaceful" missions to convey Beijing's deeply embedded aversion to power politics and military dominion.

"The idea that a strong country must be a hegemon does not sit well with China," proclaimed Wen. "Hegemonism is at odds with our cultural tradition, and it runs counter to the wishes of the Chinese people"


Is China a ‘soft’ naval power?

Shen Dingli, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, asserts that “it is wrong for us [China] to believe that we have no right to set up bases abroad.”

Shen argues that it is not terrorism or piracy that’s the real threat to China. It’s the ability of other states to block China’s trade routes that poses the greatest threat. To prevent this from happening, China, Shen asserts, needs not only a blue-water navy but also “overseas military bases to cut the supply costs.”

Chinese fears. Exaggerated?

10/20/14

51

Mohan Guruswamy

China calls the new strategy “far sea defense,” and the speed with which it is building long-range capabilities has surprised foreign military officials.

The strategy is a sharp break from the traditional, narrower doctrine of preparing for war over the self-governing island of Taiwan or defending the Chinese coast.

Now, Chinese admirals say they want warships to escort commercial vessels that are crucial to the country’s economy, from as far as the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca, in Southeast Asia, and to help secure Chinese interests in the resource-rich South and East China Seas.

)10/20/14Mohan Guruswamy 52

Breaking out of the immediate neighborhood.


China’s crude oil dependency.

To wit, China is building a blue water navy, even as it is helping to fund and construct ports in Burma, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The Chinese will not have naval bases in these countries: India would find that far too provocative, and the Chinese are taking pains so others see their rise as peaceful and non-hegemonic.

Rather, these harbors will be visited by Chinese warships and will provide warehousing for Chinese consumer goods destined for the Middle East. China is building a far-flung trading network, ultimately to be protected by its warships -- the British Empire refitted for a 21st-century era of globalization.

(Robert Kaplan in the Washington Post of September 26, 2010.)

The ultimate Chinese goal.

10/20/14

54

Mohan Guruswamy

The Jin and the Han Of the PLAN.

10/20/14

55

Mohan Guruswamy

The tale of the tape.

8/12/12Observer Research Foundation

56

Military budgets: We cannot match China.

China's defence budget has almost certainly experienced double-digit growth for two decades. According to SIPRI annual defence spending rose from over $30 billion in 2000 to almost $120 billion in 2010.

SIPRI usually adds about 50% to the official figure that China gives for its defence spending, because even basic military items such as research and development are kept off budget. Including those items would imply total military spending in 2012, based on the latest announcement from Beijing, would be around $160 billion. By 2015 this budget will be around $240 billion.

10/20/14

57

Mohan Guruswamy


History tells us again and again that victory is not assured by superiority in numbers and even technology.

If that were to be so, Alexander should have been defeated at

Gaugamela, Babur at Panipat, Wellington at Waterloo, Russia at Leningrad, Britain in the Falklands, and above all Vietnam who defeated three of the world’s leading powers – France, USA and China - in succession.

I don’t have to tell you that victory is more a result of strategy and

tactics. Numbers do matter, but numbers are not all. Technology does matter, but technology alone cannot assure you of victory. Its always mind over matter. You know these things better than most of us. You also know what to do. As the old saying goes: “When the going gets tough, the tough get going!”

“A good Navy is not a provocation to war. It is the surest

guarantee of peace!”

9/26/1059

But this will not do.


Thank you!

indian ocean - the most important global commons in the world

News & Politics

homo ergaster

homo genus

homo heidelbergensis

homo erectus

homo sapiens

roman empire

east africa

pied cuckoo