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Page 1: Indiana Apartment Market Overview - Tikijian Associates Apartment Marke… ·  · 2014-10-17Indiana Apartment Market Overview 2014 25 years. ... According to the report, ... South

Multihousing Investment Advisors

Indiana Apartment Market Overview2 0 1 4

25years

Page 2: Indiana Apartment Market Overview - Tikijian Associates Apartment Marke… ·  · 2014-10-17Indiana Apartment Market Overview 2014 25 years. ... According to the report, ... South

2 3Multihousing Investment Advisors

2014 Key TopicsNational Rental Fundamentals – Historic Strong Occupancy and Rent Growth

National occupancy stood at 95.8% at the end of the third quarter, up from 95.7% last year, according to Reis research firm. Current occupancy is well above the 94.5% average occupancy for the last fifteen years. The increase comes in spite of robust new apartment construction in the past twelve month period. High occupancies have continued to result in healthy rent growth. Third quarter rents nationally were up 3.3% from this time last year and are up 15.2% since the end of the recession in 2009. The strong rental market is largely the result of (i) a lackluster home buying market due to stricter mortgage loan underwriting and (ii) a general shift in lifestyle preference to renting and the flexibility and freedom renting provides.

Millennials Continue (and Will Continue) to Fuel Rental Demand

According to the most recent Freddie Mac Economic and Housing Outlook, over the past four quarters the growth in net household formations has occurred primarily among renters and the decline in the homeownership rate is primarily concentrated among younger households. For those 35 years and younger (a prime rental demographic) the homeownership rate has fallen from 43.6% to 35.9% over the past decade. According to the report, there will be 8.3 million new Millennial households formed between now and the end of 2018 and most of these new households will be renters. The number of Millennials (those born between 1980-2000) is approximately 80 million strong.

Another Active Year in Development for Indianapolis Class A Properties

Because of strong rental fundamentals and rising sale prices, apartment construction is burgeoning. Except for Section 42 tax credit properties, development is occurring almost exclusively in Class A luxury apartments, including amenity-filled student properties. The cost of new construction is too high to justify market rate properties that won’t command premium rents. One consequence of the construction cost increase is that developers may have to forego developments in areas which cannot justify the required higher rents. The result may be additional development in the same affluent areas (downtown and the northside) and little new development in other submarkets. 2014 may represent the peak of development with more than 4,200 units delivered in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, the most in this millennium.

Easing Concern Regarding Increased Interest Rates

For some time after the spike in interest rates that occurred in the summer of 2013 (following the Fed’s hint of a potential tapering of its bond purchases), the risk of higher interest rates was a major concern for apartment investors. However, after the ten-year U.S. Treasury reached a high of almost 3.0% in August 2013, rates have fallen back and moved in a somewhat narrow range between 2.4% and 2.7%. There is now noticeably less angst regarding higher rates in 2015. The cause for this easing concern is the strong flow of capital to the United States due to (i) a general

Economic Overview

The Millennial ImpactNumber of Births by Year (1953-2013)

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,00019

5319

5519

5719

5919

6119

6319

6519

6719

6919

7119

7319

7519

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

0520

0720

0920

1120

13

Millennials

Source: US Census

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3Please visit www.TAmultihousing.com for more information

Economic Overview

anticipation of slowing global growth and (ii) a significant amount of turmoil abroad, ranging from the rise of ISIS/ISIL terrorism to Russian aggression in Eastern Europe to the Ebola virus outbreak in western Africa. In sum, the United States continues to offer the world’s safest investment environment and this fact should serve to temper any increases in the long treasury rate throughout 2015.

Declining Foreclosures and Distress Sales

Another concern overhanging the real estate market for several years has been the vast amount of loans, particularly CMBS loans, maturing between 2013 and 2018. The concern has been that owners will be unable to find satisfactory refinancing options, resulting in a flood of defaults. So far; those fears for multifamily properties have simply not materialized due primarily to continued low interest rates and strong rental fundamentals which have allowed owners threatened with maturity defaults to either refinance or sell their property at or above the loan amount. It now seems as though multifamily defaults are more the result of owner distress (inadequate capitalization or poor management) as opposed to financing issues.

Looking Forward

In the coming twelve months we foresee: (i) another healthy year for development due to demand, readily available capital, and good performance of new high-end product (we project 3,900 units to be delivered in 2015); (ii) a solid year for rents and occupancies, but with increasing pressure as a result of the substantial new deliveries; and (iii) another year in which demand will exceed supply for the acquisition of multifamily assets, keeping prices high and cap rates at historic lows, even if interest rates increase moderately.

2014 Key Topics

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4 5Multihousing Investment Advisors

Economic OverviewIndiana EconomyIndiana continued to experience solid economic growth in 2014. An estimated 34,600 jobs were added in the state in the trailing twelve months through August and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.5%, the lowest since 2008. Indiana continues to receive high marks for its business climate. In 2014 the state was named best in the Midwest and the seventh best nationwide according to Area Development’s “Top States for Doing Business” survey. This business-friendly atmosphere has resulted in numerous planned new economic developments in every corner of the state. Below are but a few of the many projects announced in the last few months.

• Lafayette - GE Aviation to build $100 Million, 200 Employee Jet Engine Assembly Factory (3/26/14)

• Princeton - Toyota Investing $100M, Adding 300 Jobs to Build More Highlanders (8/22/14)

• Ft. Wayne - Shared Services Center to Add 320 Jobs in Fort Wayne (8/7/14)

• LaPorte – Alcoa Aerospace Division, To Invest $100M and Add 300+ New Jobs (5/29/14)

• Jamestown - Japanese Auto Parts Supplier to Locate New Operations Here – Create 195 Jobs (9/12/14)

• Tippecanoe County - British Agribusiness Investing $90+ Million in New Plant (7/15/14)

• Huntington County - Wisconsin Breakfast Food Producer Plans New $20M Processing Facility – Will Create 100 jobs (9/11/14)

• Elkhart County - Boat Manufacturer Adding 100 Jobs (10/1/14)

Indianapolis EconomyLike the state, economic activity in Indianapolis was vibrant in 2014. The city added 18,900 jobs in the trailing twelve months ended in August 2014. Indianapolis’ unemployment rate in August was 5.1%, down from 6.9% the same period last year - the lowest since prior to the recession. Indianapolis-area business developments announced in 2014 include:

• Cummins to Spend $30M on New Division Headquarters in Downtown Indy (3/28/14)

• Lowe’s Selects Indiana for New 1,000 Employee Customer Support Center

• Stonegate Mortgage Grows Indianapolis Headquarters, Adds 400 New Jobs (3/4/14)

• Hat World Unveils Major Expansion in Zionsville, Adding 750+ New Jobs (1/10/14)

• Health Management Company Expands Indy Headquarters, to Add Hundreds of Jobs across State (5/28/14)

• Email Application Developer Launches in Indianapolis. Plans 150 Employee Operation (2/27/14)

• National Beauty Retailer Locating Fulfillment Center in Greenwood, Adding 500+ New Jobs (4/10/14)

Job GrowthState of Indiana

(32,500)(5,600)

38,400

26,60018,900 12,300

(28,700)

(169,800)

9,700

45,30053,000

32,300 36,400

(180,000)

(160,000)

(140,000)

(120,000)

(100,000)

(80,000)

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(T-12)

Cha

nge

in E

mpl

oym

ent

Total Establishment Employment -Indiana 8/14= 3,005,000

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Job GrowthIndianapolis MSA

(3,300)

7,900

13,10010,600

14,800 14,200

(1,500)

(41,200)

(1,400)

16,400

25,400

18,000 18,900

(50,000)

(40,000)

(30,000)

(20,000)

(10,000)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(T-12)

Cha

nge

in E

mpl

oym

ent

Total Establishment Employment -Indianapolis MSA 8/14= 966,000

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment RateIndiana & Indianapolis MSA

5.3% 5.3% 5.4%5.0%

4.6%

5.9%

10.4% 10.1%

9.0%8.4%

7.5%

5.5%

4.8% 4.7% 4.8%4.4% 4.1%

5.1%

8.7%9.1%

8.4%7.8%

6.9%

5.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(Aug)

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

Indiana Indianapolis MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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5Please visit www.TAmultihousing.com for more information

2014 Indiana Cities Market Performance

CityMarket

Rent Growth

Avg. Rent/S.F.

Avg. Rent/Unit

MarketOccupancy

Anderson 0.0% $0.63 $580 91.3%

Bloomington 2.4% $0.98 $893 94.2%

Columbus 0.6% $0.91 $821 95.4%

Evansville 1.6% $0.74 $637 93.3%

Fort Wayne 0.7% $0.72 $603 93.2%

Indianapolis 1.2% $0.82 $738 92.0%

Kokomo 2.0% $0.68 $574 94.4%

Lafayette / W. Lafayette 2.5% $0.89 $789 93.3%

Muncie 2.6% $0.81 $741 95.6%

South Bend / Mishawaka 3.5% $0.81 $673 91.7%

Source: Tikijian Associates

20 78 20 64 72 21 65 22 322,115 10,425 2,934 10,881 17,408 3,018 10,885 2,646 10,599

91.3% 94.2% 95.4% 93.3% 93.2% 94.4% 93.3% 95.6% 91.7%0.0% 2.4% 0.6% 1.6% 0.7% 2.0% 2.5% 2.6% 3.5%$580 $894 $821 $637 $603 $574 $789 $741 $673$.63 $.99 $.91 $.74 $.72 $.68 $.89 $.81 $.81

Avg. Rent $384 $545 $509 $441 $452 $404 $569 $482 $464Avg. $ / SF $.93 $1.53 $1.62 $.98 $.98 $.88 $1.36 $1.38 $1.03Avg. Sq. Ft. 411 355 314 451 462 459 419 350 451Total Units 19 382 74 129 639 133 525 37 119Avg. Rent $514 $716 $747 $548 $524 $493 $603 $574 $586Avg. $ / SF $.74 $1.06 $1.06 $.80 $.79 $.75 $.92 $.90 $.85Avg. Sq. Ft. 693 675 705 687 663 653 655 635 688Total Units 499 3,103 871 4,761 7,357 829 3,508 651 4,935Avg. Rent $570 $717 $788 $645 $595 $569 $706 $645 $689Avg. $ / SF $.62 $.84 $.86 $.71 $.65 $.64 $.81 $.72 $.76Avg. Sq. Ft. 914 854 921 910 914 888 872 902 910Total Units 1,086 2,872 883 3,991 4,671 1,317 3,735 973 3,231Avg. Rent $663 $1,056 $914 $818 $719 $651 $868 $709 $816Avg. $ / SF $.71 $1.03 $.90 $.71 $.70 $.68 $.85 $.73 $.81Avg. Sq. Ft. 933 1,024 1,013 1,146 1,033 958 1,017 968 1,008Total Units 148 2,188 676 1,286 3,430 414 1,238 244 1,612Avg. Rent $672 $1,178 $955 $902 $845 $768 $1,089 $882 $1,037Avg. $ / SF $.55 $.91 $.80 $.73 $.67 $.64 $.83 $.77 $.81Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,223 1,298 1,200 1,234 1,264 1,209 1,312 1,145 1,277Total Units 345 1,433 383 672 1,267 319 1,159 515 472Avg. Rent $722 $1,862 $873 $840 $741 $790 $1,588 $1,388 $579Avg. $ / SF $.47 $1.23 $.64 $.59 $.57 $.51 $1.03 $1.05 $.43Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,539 1,509 1,361 1,414 1,293 1,553 1,545 1,318 1,337Total Units 18 447 47 42 44 6 663 226 28

3 Bedroom

4 Bedroom

Studio

1 Bedroom

2 Bedroom/1 Bath

2 Bedroom/2 Bath

Sout

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nd

Ft. W

ayne

Koko

mo

Lafa

yette

Ande

rson

Bloo

min

gton

Colu

mbu

s

Evan

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Mun

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Total PropertiesTotal Units

Occupancy Rate

Average Rent / Sq. Ft.Average Rent

Overall Rent Growth (2013 - 2014)

Indiana Rental Market Statistics

Average Occupancy by City

Source: Tikijian Associates

82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Green type represents an increase from 2013, black represents no change and red represents a decrease from 2013

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6 7Multihousing Investment Advisors

MERRILLVILLE$872 / $0.95 / 89.1%

CROWN POINT$880 / $1.01 / 93.6%

SOUTH BEND$690 / $0.81 / 91.5%

MISHAWAKA$680 / $0.83 / 92.1%

ELKHART$614 / $0.72 / 94.5%

FT. WAYNE$603 / $0.72 / 93.2%

MARION$519 / $0.61 / 91.2%

MUNCIE$741 / $0.81 / 95.6%

ANDERSON$580 / $0.63 / 91.3%

KOKOMO$574 / $0.68 / 94.4%LAFAYETTE

$652 / $0.80 / 94.3%

WEST LAFAYETTE$932 / $0.96 / 92.2%

INDIANAPOLIS$738 / $0.82 / 92.0%

TERRE HAUTE$644 / $0.74 / 96.8%

COLUMBUS$821 / $0.91/ 95.4%BLOOMINGTON

$894 / $0.99 / 94.2%

RICHMOND$545 / $0.64 / 92.1%

EVANSVILLE$637 / $0.74 / 93.3%

NEW ALBANY$648 / $0.62 / 95.2%

JEFFERSONVILLE$661 / $0.73 / 94.5%

MICHIGAN CITY$585 / $0.73 / 91.8%

PORTAGE$736 / $0.83 / 96.2%

6965

74

70

465

74

70

65

64

164

469

80

94

CLARKSVILLE$615 / $0.67 / 94.3%

31

31

37

37

Indiana Average Rent and Occupancy

Indiana led

the nation in

manufacturing

job growth over

the past year

and is poised

to prosper

as American

manufacturing

becomes more

competitive

internationally.

(Avg Rent / Avg Rent peR sq ft / Avg OccupAncy)

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For the first time in five years, occupancy in the Indianapolis Metro area did not increase in 2014, dipping just a tick to 92.0% from 92.1% last year. Among submarkets, Downtown again led the city (for the fourth consecutive year) at 95.2%, although that represented a slight drop from last year’s 95.4%. The North submarket was again second in occupancy at 93.5%, unchanged from last year. The solid performance of these two high-occupancy submarkets, in spite of the delivery of a significant number of new units within those markets, is proof that increased development has to-date had little, if any, impact on occupancy.

Occupancy in other submarkets moved in different directions, with the East submarket climbing to 87.8% from 87.3% last year; the West submarket remaining unchanged at 91.0% and the South dipping to 92.4% from 93.0% last year. The improvement in the East submarket is largely driven by rehabs and management changes of a number of large distressed properties. The South submarket’s slight occupancy decline (in spite of no new construction) is believed to be due to a greater propensity of South side residents to buy homes.

Average gross rent for the Indianapolis Metro area grew at a 2.8% rate between 2013 and 2014. Downtown led all submarkets in rent growth with a 3.8% increase. Downtown rents now average $1.19 per square foot, a record high. All submarkets saw higher rents this year. Class A properties achieved the highest rent growth among property classes with an increase of 4.6% over last year. Class B and Class C properties saw 2.8% and 3.3% increases respectively. It should be noted that rent growth for Class B properties is impacted by the fact that our survey classifies all new Section 42 tax credit properties within the B Class. Many of those properties offer comparatively lower rents than properties without the rent and resident income restrictions of tax credit properties.

Total Apartment Base (units) 140,700Number of Communities (all) 747Number of Communities (> 200 units) 314Average Community Size (units) 190Average Occupancy Rate (2014) 92.0%Median Occupancy Rate (2014) 95.0%Rent Growth Rate (2013 to 2014) 2.8%Annual Rent Growth (2009 to 2014) 1.9%"Same Store" Annual Rent Growth (2009 to 2014) 1.0%"Same Store" Annual Rent Growth (2004 to 2014) 1.5%

Indpls Dwntwn North South East West Indy Indy IndyMetro Indpls Metro Metro Metro Metro Class Class ClassArea Area Area Area Area Area "A" "B" "C"

Total Properties 655 110 179 126 108 132 119 298 238Total Units 129,449 9,116 45,858 25,054 16,828 32,593 30,026 60,297 39,126

Occupancy Rate 92.0% 95.2% 93.5% 92.4% 87.8% 91.0% 94.3% 94.0% 87.2%2.8% 3.8% 3.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% 4.6% 2.8% 3.3%

Average Rent $738 $951 $813 $696 $610 $672 $992 $703 $598Average Rent / Sq. Ft. $.82 $1.19 $.86 $.79 $.69 $.77 $1.02 $.78 $.72

Avg. Rent $516 $594 $541 $478 $435 $458 $872 $526 $462Avg. $ / SF $1.19 $1.27 $1.19 $1.25 $1.11 $1.09 $1.56 $1.13 $1.17

Avg. Sq. Ft. 434 466 456 383 392 420 561 467 396Total Units 4,011 1,073 1,099 476 531 832 303 1,459 2,249Avg. Rent $656 $831 $716 $618 $539 $577 $867 $616 $544

Avg. $ / SF $.94 $1.20 $.98 $.89 $.81 $.85 $1.14 $.89 $.82Avg. Sq. Ft. 701 693 732 697 667 678 759 694 663Total Units 48,556 4,891 17,508 8,796 5,101 12,260 11,937 22,139 14,480Avg. Rent $671 $845 $741 $666 $600 $646 $895 $699 $607

Avg. $ / SF $.73 $.93 $.77 $.74 $.65 $.73 $.96 $.76 $.67Avg. Sq. Ft. 917 908 959 897 922 888 932 922 909Total Units 35,177 810 9,367 8,139 7,509 9,352 2,324 17,053 15,800Avg. Rent $899 $1,342 $936 $815 $718 $803 $1,064 $793 $682

Avg. $ / SF $.83 $1.23 $.84 $.77 $.71 $.77 $.96 $.74 $.67Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,083 1,093 1,120 1,058 1,018 1,042 1,106 1,077 1,019Total Units 29,004 1,983 13,632 5,111 1,738 6,540 12,647 13,214 3,143Avg. Rent $925 $1,211 $1,044 $878 $776 $878 $1,219 $868 $795

Avg. $ / SF $.72 $.93 $.76 $.71 $.62 $.70 $.92 $.67 $.63Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,294 1,307 1,378 1,231 1,246 1,260 1,321 1,295 1,271Total Units 11,774 182 4,103 2,336 1,756 3,397 2,625 5,811 3,338Avg. Rent $1,149 $2,243 $1,152 $775 $839 $863 $2,344 $840 $849

Avg. $ / SF $.80 $1.50 $.73 $.57 $.60 $.61 $1.52 $.60 $.56Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,440 1,497 1,571 1,363 1,400 1,408 1,538 1,398 1,508Total Units 927 177 149 196 193 212 190 621 116

Overall Rent Growth (2013 - 2014)

3 Bedroom

4 Bedroom

Studio

1 Bedroom

2 Bedroom/1 Bath

2 Bedroom/2 Bath

Indianapolis Rental Market Statistics

Total Apartment Base in units (140,700) and communities (747) equals all properties in the metro area, including properties still under construction, fully subsidized properties, and smaller properties not part of the Tikijian Associates Annual Rent Survey. The total units (129,449) and properties (655) shown in the Occupancy and Rent chart below are properties included in the Annual Rent Survey.

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8 9Multihousing Investment Advisors

Same Store Rent GrowthIndianapolis Metro Area

1.0%

1.5%1.4%

2.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

1-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-Year

1-YearAnnualGrowth

10-YearAnnualGrowth

20-YearAnnualGrowth

5-YearAnnualGrowth

Source: Tikijian Associates

Indianapolis Rental Market Statistics

As would be expected, new properties command higher rents than older properties and Class A rents are higher than lower classes. What is surprising, however, is how much higher the rents are in newer Class A properties than in slightly older Class A and B properties (more than $.20 per square foot). This significant difference is primarily because (i) the newest properties have been built in locations with high (and increasing) land costs (ii) the newest properties offer exceptionally high-end amenities and unit interiors and (iii) construction costs have risen significantly recently, forcing owners to charge higher prices. To date, these new higher end properties are being readily accepted by renters and absorbed at a high rate due to the shift toward renting as a lifestyle preference and an improving employment environment providing more young renters with the means to afford higher rents.

“Same Store Rent Growth” is the rent growth of properties that have been in existence during an entire respective survey period. Properties built during a respective study period are not included in that period.

Average Rent per Square Footby Year Built & by Class – Indianapolis Metro Area

$1.02

$0.78

$0.72

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

Class "A" Class "B" Class "C"

$1.08

$0.87$0.90

$0.86

$0.74 $0.73

$0.86

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

2010's 2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's 1960's Prior to1960's

Includessome

downtownrehabs

Source: Tikijian Associates

By Year Built By Class

Historical Average Rent Growth RateIndianapolis Metro Area

4.5%

1.1%

4.5% 4.6%

4.1%

3.7%

1.8%

2.7%

3.9%

2.9%

5.6%

2.3%

1.7%

3.3%

2.5%

3.3%

1.7% 1.2%

0.5% 0.5%

1.3%

1.8%

3.0%

0.9% 0.8%

2.7% 2.5%

2.1%

2.8%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Aver

age

Ren

t Gro

wth

Rat

e

Source: Tikijian Associates

Historical Average RentIndianapolis Metro Area

$356 $3

72$3

76 $393 $4

11 $428 $4

44 $452 $4

64 $482 $4

96 $524 $5

36 $545 $5

63 $577 $5

96 $606

$613

$616

$619 $627 $6

38 $657

$663

$668 $6

86 $703 $7

18 $738

$300$325$350$375$400$425$450$475$500$525$550$575$600$625$650$675$700$725$750$775$800

Aver

age

Ren

t

Source: Tikijian Associates

The graph above illustrates a 30 year unbroken string of rent increases in the Indianapolis Metro area. These rents reflect gross rents. In the early 2000’s when the rental market was experiencing softness due to home buying, there were years in which “effective rents” (rents after concessions) actually declined. Now, as more owners employ revenue management software, concessions are used less often.

Rent, including the highest rents offered at brand new properties, grew at an overall 2.8% rate in 2014, up from the 2.1% growth in 2013. The growth in 2014 was the strongest since prior to the great recession.

2014 marked the first year in which Class A rents for the entire Metro area topped $1.00 per square foot, reaching $1.02, up from $.98 per square foot in 2013. The increase is attributable to the new luxury apartments downtown and on the far north side with the highest rents now exceeding $1.50 per square foot. Class B properties saw average rents increase by two cents to $.78 per sq. ft. and Class C rents grew by a penny to $.72 per sq. ft.

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Indianapolis Rental Market Statistics

Annual Rental Revenue Growth30 Property Sample – Class A & B - Well Managed

2.9%3.5%

2.7%

4.1%

-1.4%

1.5%

4.9%

3.4%2.7%

1.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5 Year Average

3.2%

Source: Tikijian Associates

In 2014:properties with rent revenue growth = 22

Properties with rent revenue declines = 8

Overall Market Vacancy RateIndianapolis Metro Area

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Proj.

Vaca

ncy

Rat

e

• 2015 vacancy rate forecast assumes 3,800 units absorbed as compared to 3,800 units actually absorbed in 2014. We are assuming higher absorption (vs. 3,500 projected units in 2014) due to macro trends favoring renting.

• We are projecting 3,700 units will be delivered in 2015, hence the projected vacancy declines to 7.6%** Average annual absorption has been 3,300 units since 2010

Source: Tikijian Associates

Metro Indianapolis apartment occupancy was 92.0% in 2014, down slightly from 92.1% in 2013. It must be noted, however, that occupancy in both 2013 and 2014 are the highest since 1997. Occupancy is fueled by high demand from Millennials who (i) are unable to buy homes due to student debt and/or tight lender standards for home buying or (ii) simply prefer to rent as a lifestyle choice.

New Apartment Units (% of Base) vs. Market Vacancy Rate

Indianapolis Metro Area

7.1%

9.7%

11.2%

9.4%

7.7%

8.8%8.1%

7.1%

6.2%

6.8%

8.1%

6.4%

8.9%

9.2%

9.2%

9.3%

10.4%

12.0% 12.2%

11.0% 10.4%

9.9%9.2%

10.7%

9.2%

8.6%8.3%

7.9%

8.0%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%11%12%13%

New units as a % of base Vacancy Rate

Source: Tikijian Associates

Occupancy Rate by ClassIndianapolis Metro Area

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Class "A" Class "B" Class "C"

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Tikijian Associates

The chart above illustrates rent growth of a sample of 30 well-managed class A and B properties. The rent decline in 2009 was the result of stagnant rents and increased concessions during the recession. This year’s rent growth for such properties was the smallest since 2010. The reason rent growth is lower among this sample of 30 properties than the rent growth for the larger market is that the larger market includes the very high rents commanded by the newest properties and the sample does not include any new properties (the newest property in this sample was built in 2003). The revenue growth is effectively “same store” revenue growth.

Class A occupancy dipped slightly in 2014, from 94.8% to 94.3%. Class B occupancy however, increased to 94.0% from 93.2% in 2013. Occupancy at Class C properties dropped to 87.2% in 2014, down from 87.8% last year. It should be noted that the C properties generally include a number of distressed communities, negatively impacting both occupancy and rent.

This chart shows the number of new apartment units completed in a given year as a percentage of the overall inventory. The total market vacancy rate is also shown to contrast unit additions against the overall market vacancy. 2014 vacancy rate remained near a 15 year low in spite of the large number of new units delivered. 2014 saw the largest amount of new units as a percent of the base since the mid 1980’s.

Page 10: Indiana Apartment Market Overview - Tikijian Associates Apartment Marke… ·  · 2014-10-17Indiana Apartment Market Overview 2014 25 years. ... According to the report, ... South

10 11Multihousing Investment Advisors

New Construction32

,086

33,9

46

32,6

79

34,1

75

34,3

69

33,8

38

26,0

37

20,4

92

12,3

04

10,0

39

10,5

50

9,83

5

11,0

89

12,6

39

12,5

64

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Num

ber o

f Per

mits

Single Family (1 - 4 units) Multi-family (5+ units)

Total Residential Building PermitsState of Indiana

Trailing12

Monthsthru 8/14

Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch

10 yr. Avg.

5 yr. Avg.

A total of 12,564 single family residential building permits were issued in the state in the trailing twelve months through August 2014, basically unchanged from the same period last year (which was the most since 2007). Multifamily permits (5+ units) were issued for 5,674 units in the trailing 12 months, up from 3,577 units in the same period in 2013. The multifamily permits are above the trailing 5-year average but below the trailing 10-year average.

Permits for 4,987 single family homes were issued in Indianapolis in the trailing 12 months through August compared with 5,191 units in the same period in 2013. Multifamily units permitted totaled 3,136, up from 2,880 in 2013. As was the case with state permits, the trailing 12 month permit number was above the trailing 5-year average but lower than the trailing 10-year average.

13,4

18 15,6

20

13,9

90

13,2

35

13,0

25

13,2

32

9,99

2

7,55

4

4,56

1

3,73

2

4,08

8

3,77

7

4,14

4

5,19

1

4,98

7

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Num

ber o

f Per

mits

Single Family (1 - 4 units) Multi-family (5+ units)

10 yr. Avg.

Total Residential Building PermitsIndianapolis Metro Area

Trailing12

Monthsthru 8/14

Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch

5 yr. Avg.

Ironworks

Monon Place Stadium Lofts & Flats

The Hamilton

Page 11: Indiana Apartment Market Overview - Tikijian Associates Apartment Marke… ·  · 2014-10-17Indiana Apartment Market Overview 2014 25 years. ... According to the report, ... South

11Please visit www.TAmultihousing.com for more information

By the end of the year an additional 4,200 new units will have been added in 2014 to the apartment stock of Indianapolis, the most since the beginning of this millennium. We project an additional 3,900 units will be delivered in 2015. The vast majority of these new deliveries are Downtown, which saw 1,412 units delivered in 2014, and the northern suburbs (including Indianapolis’ far north side and Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville, Westfield and Zionsville) in which 2,112 new units came on line. The new development map on the following page illustrates the continuing trend toward development of very high end luxury properties in these same affluent high growth markets.

Multifamily building permits issued in Indiana in the trailing 12 months through August represented 30% of the total housing units permitted. In Indianapolis multifamily permits were 32% of the total. These percentages compare to 36% nationally. The percentages illustrate the growing popularity of apartments. Until a few years ago, the percentage of multifamily permits as a portion of total permits was in the teens.

Multifamily Building Permitsas a % of Total Housing Permits

18%

13%15% 15%

12%

9%

31%29%

23% 23%

14%

34%32%

16%14%

12% 12%11%

14%

23%

14% 15%

19% 20%

28%30%

19% 18% 18% 17%

20%

25%

32%

20% 21%

29%

33% 34%36%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Indy MSA Indiana National

Trailing12

Monthsthru 8/14

Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch

Monthly Total Residential Building PermitsIndianapolis MSA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000N

umbe

r of P

erm

its

Total Residential Permits

Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch

New Apartment DevelopmentIndianapolis Metro Area

2,26

1

1,91

7

1,09

9

2,37

7

946

1,09

9

2,52

6

2,48

4

1,75

2

2,92

6

1,93

9

4,20

0

3,90

0

2,54

9

2,33

0

2,38

7

1,34

9

744

2,42

1

1,86

8

1,73

6

1,48

2

800

2,88

0

3,13

6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014est.

2015proj.

Num

ber o

f Uni

ts

Placed in Service (Tikijian Associates) Building Permits (US Government)

Trailing12 Mos.

8/14

Source: Tikijian Associates survey of developers & US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch

New Construction

Single & Multifamily Building PermitsIndianapolis MSA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Num

ber o

f Per

mits

Single Family Multifamily

Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch

These two graphs display the total housing permits and the breakdown of permits between multifamily and single family building permits on a monthly basis.

9 on Canal

Page 12: Indiana Apartment Market Overview - Tikijian Associates Apartment Marke… ·  · 2014-10-17Indiana Apartment Market Overview 2014 25 years. ... According to the report, ... South

12 13Multihousing Investment Advisors

INDIANAPOLIS

CARMELFISHERS

ZIONSVILLE

GREENWOOD

PLAINFIELD

AVON

BROWNSBURG

GREENFIELD

WESTFIELD

31

86TH ST

MERI

DIAN

ST

465

136

3640

52

36

71ST ST

62ND ST

56TH ST

46TH ST

38TH ST

30TH ST

79TH ST79TH ST

KESSLER BLVD56TH ST

46TH ST

96TH ST

106TH ST

116TH ST

131ST ST

146TH ST

KEYSTONE AVE

MICHIGAN RD

COLLEGE AVE

16TH ST10TH ST

RAYMOND STWASHINGTON ST

THOMPSON AVE

EDGEWOOD AVE

SOUTHPORT RD

STOP 11 RD

CO. LINE RD

MANN

RD

MOOR

ESVIL

LE R

D

SHELBYVILLE RD

ARLINGTON AVE

EMERSON AVE

FRANKLIN RDPOST RD

GERMAN CHURCH RD

21ST ST

79TH ST

86TH ST

126TH ST

OLIO RD

HAGUE RD

CUMBERLAND RD

MOORE RD

LAFAYETTE RD

ZIONSVILLE RD

32

238

38

32

MOORESVILLE

267

NOBLESVILLE38

BEACHSIDE AT SAXONY(80 - MR)

THE HAMILTON(233 - MR)

65

74

70

74

70

69

421

9

70

INDIANAPOLISINT’L AIRPORT40

13531

WHITELAND RD

SPRING MILL RD HAZE

L DEL

L RD

13

134

DAN JONES RD

DANVILLE

LEBANON

39

W 200 S

ALLIS

ONVI

LLE

RDBIN

FORD BL

VD

431

3767

267

144

MONON PLACE PH II (136 - MR)

132

32

UNION STREET FLATSAT GRAND JUNCTION

(237 - MR) GRAY

RD

REFLECTIONS II(44 - IL)

HIGHPOINTE ON MERIDAN(235 - MR)

82 FLATS AT THE CROSSING(232 - MR)

FLATS AT FISHERS MARKETPLACE(306 - MR)

LINDEN SQUARE II(74 - MR)

PRESERVE AT WILLOW SPRINGS(90 - MR) SOPHIA AT THE CROSSING

(240 - MR)

THE POINTE ON FALL CREEK(59 - TC)

SOLANA AT THE CROSSING(384 - MR)

QUAIL RUN II(132 - MR)

THE MEZZ ON THE MONON(44- MR)

THE NASH(31- MR)

IRONWORKS AT KEYSTONE(117 - MR)

FRANKLIN COVE II(64 - TC)

TROTTER’S POINTE PH.IV(24 - TC)

ARBORWOOD ATMANN RD(260 - MR)

RESIDENCES ONRONALD REAGAN

(252- MR)

BAILEY PARKOF BROWNSBURG

(66 - IL)

ILLINOIS PLACE(50 - TC)

CLIFTON SQUARE(57 - TC)

CASEY ACRES(252 - MR)

WATERMARK ON CUMBERLAND

(220- MR)

WOODLAND TRACE OF CARMEL(87- IL)

LEGACY TOWNS II(75 - MR)

THE BRIDGEWATER(240 - MR) CUMBERLAND POINTE II

(136 - MR)

THE DEPOT ATNICKEL PLATE

(242 - MR)

5700 MADISON AVE(112 - MR)

THE FARM AT ZIONSVILLE(250 - MR)

OLIVIA ON MAIN(204 - MR)

FLATS AT 146(368 - MR)

THE SEASONS OF CARMEL(256 - MR)

SEE DOWNTOWNDEVELOPMENT MAP

FIELDS AT FRANKLIN RD(142 - MR)

CANAL POINTE(122 - MR)

BELLA VISTA(180 - MR)

LAKESIDE CARMEL(283- MR)

THE HAMPTONS(130 - MR)

WHITE LICK CREEK(73 - MR)

ELMWOOD(126 - MR)

VILLAS AT WATERMARK(266 - MR)

THE WOODLANDS(93- MR)

WOODBERRY RIDGE(136 - MR)

TEMPLETON RIDGE(124 - MR)

FALLCREEK VIEW(50 - TC)

LAWRENCE SENIOR APARTMENTS(60 - TC)

THE FLATSAT SWITCH(102 - MR)

HARMONY(240 - MR)

THE DISTRICT(275 - MR)

REDWOOD AT ANDOVER ROAD(97- MR)

THE LINKS ON 96TH(444 - MR)

CRG BUTLER SITE(235 - MR)

KEYSTONE RIVER CROSSING SITE(180 - MR)

OVERLOOK AT THE FAIRGROUNDS(49 - TC)

37

NOBLE WEST(320 - MR)

THE BRIDGES(300 - MR)

LACABREAH(240 - MR)

DOUBLE CREEK FLATS(240 - MR)

SOUTHERN DUNES(224 - MR)

OAK ST

UNION CHAPEL RD

DEVELOPMENT STAGE

PLANNED

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

RECENTLY COMPLETED

SUBSTANTIAL REHAB

SENIOR HOUSING

NUMBER OF UNITS

TAX CREDIT

MARKET RATE

INDEPENDENT LIVING (SENIOR)

(123)(TC)(MR)

(IL)

2014 Indianapolis Apartment Development

Northside Apartment DevelopmentIndy North, Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville, Westfield & Zionsville

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,000

Num

ber o

f Uni

ts

Indy North Carmel Fishers Noblesville Westfield Zionsville

768878

656

337184

344 400

735

1,096935

760856

1,021

2,112 2,112

2,475

572

New Units Delivered

Source: Tikijian Associates survey of developers

424

Downtown Apartment DevelopmentIndianapolis Downtown

124 88 133 16383 68

090

236165

335452

717

516

1,412

715

1,044

1,207

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Num

ber o

f Uni

ts

New Units Delivered

Source: Tikijian Associates survey of developers

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13Please visit www.TAmultihousing.com for more information

VIRGINIA AVE

INDIANA AVE

MASSACHUSETTS AVE

MERI

DIAN

ST

NEW YORK ST

10TH ST

16TH STSENA

TE A

VE

22ND ST

OHIO ST

CAPI

TOL A

VE

DELA

WAR

E ST

WASHINGTON ST

EAST

ST

COLLEGE AVE

ARTISTRY(258 - MR)

POINT AT BLOCK 400(160 - MR)

31

31

4040

421

STADIUM FLATS(144 - MR)

STADIUM LOFTS(138 - MR)

333 PENN(78 - MR)

FIRE HOUSESITEAXIS

(336 - MR)

9 ON CANAL(304 - MR)

65

70

70

70

65

ENGLEWOOD LOFTS(24 - TC)

CIRCA I & II(265 - MR)

PENN

SYLV

ANIA

ST

CENTRAL STATE MANSION(67UNITS/138BEDS - MR)

LINCOLN(75 - TC)

800 N CAPITAL(111 - MR)

PENN PLACE(38 - TC)

MILLIKAN ON MASS I & II(125 - MR/TC)

MICHIGAN ST

WES

T ST

PENN STREET TOWER(98 - MR)

10TH ST

MICHIGAN ST

RETREAT ON WASHINGTON(62 - TC)

S HA

RDIN

G ST

BELM

ONT A

VE

E RI

VERS

IDE

DR

30TH ST

LAFAYETTE RD

LOFTS AT PULLIAM SQUARE(145 - MR)

MARKET SQUARE TOWER(300 - MR)

SLATE(68 - MR)

OXFORD PLACE(30 - TC)

CENTRAL GREENS(180 - MR)

DI RIMINI(31 - MR)

2131 NORTH(31 - MR)

747 COLLAGE(42 - MR)

MENTOR/MUSE(242 - MR)

ALEXIA(175 - MR)

THE VUE(240 - MR)

LOCKERBIE NORTH(215 - MR)

CITY WAY PH II(270 - MR)

FORTE(64 - MR)

2014 Indianapolis Downtown Development

DEVELOPMENT STAGE

PLANNED

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

RECENTLY COMPLETED

SUBSTANTIAL REHAB

SENIOR HOUSING

NUMBER OF UNITS

TAX CREDIT

MARKET RATE

INDEPENDENT LIVING (SENIOR)

(123)(TC)(MR)

(IL)

2013 Starts Units 2014 Starts Units 2015 Expected Starts Units 2013 Starts UnitsMarket Rate Market Rate Market Rate Tax-Credit / T-E BondsFlats at Fishers Marketplace - Ackermann 306 Flats at 146 - Domo Development 368 Links on 96th - Herman & Kittle 444 Franklin Cove II - Pedcor 649 on Canal - IPA 304 Carmel Lakeside - J.C. Hart 283 Market Square Tower - Flaherty & Collins 300 Retreat on Washington - Pedcor 62Residence on Ronald Reagan - Samaritan 252 Villas at Watermark - Watermark Res. 266 The District - Edward Rose of Indiana 275 Clifton Square - BWI 57Depot at Nickel Plate - Flaherty & Collins 242 Arborwood on Mann Road - Herman & Kittle 260 CityWay II - Buckingham 270 Englewood Lofts - Englewood Development 24The Bridgewater - Justus 240 Seasons of Carmel - Barrett & Stokely & Pittman 256 The Vue - Herman & Kittle 240 Trotter's Pointe IV - Pedcor 24Circa - Milhaus Development 235 Casey Acres - Herman & Kittle 252 Harmony - J.C. Hart 240 Merici Village - TWG Dev. / MAH 21Watermark on Cumberland - Watermark Residential 220 Mentor & Muse - Milhaus Development 242 CRG Butler Site - CRG Residential 235 Totals - tax-credit 252Bella Vista - Edward Rose of Indiana 186 Southern Dunes - Sheehan 242 Olivia on Main - Keystone Development 204Stadium Flats - Core Redevelopment 144 La Cabreah - Domo Development 240 Keystone River Crossing site - Glick/PK 180 2014 Starts UnitsCumberland Pointe II - Barrett & Stokely 136 Double Creek Flats - Domo Development 240 Central Greens - TWG Development 180 Tax-Credit / T-E Bonds5700 Madison - Jackson Development 112 HighPointe on Meridian - J.C. Hart 235 Alexia - TWG Development 175 Lawrence Seniors - TWG Development 60800 Capital - TWG Development 111 Lockerbie North - TWG Development 215 Pointe at Block 400 - Flaherty & Collins 162 Fall Creek View - TWG Dev. / PIHDC 50Ironworks on Keystone - Hendricks Commercial 105 Lofts at Pulliam Square - TWG Development 145 Fields at Franklin Road - Becovic 142 Penn Place - BWI 38Preserve at Willow Springs - Becovic 90 Quail Run II - Buckingham 132 Woodberry Ridge - Redwood Living 136 Totals - tax-credit 148Legacy Towns & Flats II - J.C. Hart 77 The Hamptons - Redwood Living 130 Templeton Ridge - Redwood Living 124White Lick Creek - Redwood Living 73 Flats at Switch - Loftus/Robinson & TWG 102 Forte - Von Deylen 64 2015 Expected Starts UnitsCentral State Mansion - Reverie Estates 67 Penn Street Tower - TWG Development 98 2131 North 47 Tax-Credit / T-E BondsNash at City Center - Pedcor 31 Redwood at Andover - Redwood Living 97 747 N. College - Milhaus 42 Illinois St Seniors - TWG Development 63Totals - market rate 2,931 The Woodlands - Redwood Living 93 Totals - market rate 3,460 Overlook at the Fairgrounds - BWI 49Totals - all 2013 3,183 Elmwod - Redwood Living 90 Totals - all 2015 3,602 Oxford Place - TWG Development 30

Beachside at Saxony - J.C. Hart 80 Totals - tax-credit 142Linden Square II - J.C. Hart 74Slate - Von Deylen 68Bailey Park of Brownsburg - Whitmore 66Millikan on Mass II - Insight / Flaherty & Collins 64Lawrence Senior - TWG Development 60Solana at the Crossing II - Milhaus Dev. 48Mezz on the Monon - AndersonBirkla 44Reflections at Bluestone II - Whitmore 44Circa II - Milhaus Development 30Totals - market rate 4,564Totals - all 2014 4,712

Indianapolis Metro Area Construction Starts - 2014

2014 done

2013 Starts Units 2014 Starts Units 2015 Expected Starts Units 2013 Starts UnitsMarket Rate Market Rate Market Rate Tax-Credit / T-E BondsFlats at Fishers Marketplace - Ackermann 306 Flats at 146 - Domo Development 368 Links on 96th - Herman & Kittle 444 Franklin Cove II - Pedcor 649 on Canal - IPA 304 Carmel Lakeside - J.C. Hart 283 Market Square Tower - Flaherty & Collins 300 Retreat on Washington - Pedcor 62Residence on Ronald Reagan - Samaritan 252 Villas at Watermark - Watermark Res. 266 The District - Edward Rose of Indiana 275 Clifton Square - BWI 57Depot at Nickel Plate - Flaherty & Collins 242 Arborwood on Mann Road - Herman & Kittle 260 CityWay II - Buckingham 270 Englewood Lofts - Englewood Development 24The Bridgewater - Justus 240 Seasons of Carmel - Barrett & Stokely & Pittman 256 The Vue - Herman & Kittle 240 Trotter's Pointe IV - Pedcor 24Circa - Milhaus Development 235 Casey Acres - Herman & Kittle 252 Harmony - J.C. Hart 240 Merici Village - TWG Dev. / MAH 21Watermark on Cumberland - Watermark Residential 220 Mentor & Muse - Milhaus Development 242 CRG Butler Site - CRG Residential 235 Totals - tax-credit 252Bella Vista - Edward Rose of Indiana 186 Southern Dunes - Sheehan 242 Olivia on Main - Keystone Development 204Stadium Flats - Core Redevelopment 144 La Cabreah - Domo Development 240 Keystone River Crossing site - Glick/PK 180 2014 Starts UnitsCumberland Pointe II - Barrett & Stokely 136 Double Creek Flats - Domo Development 240 Central Greens - TWG Development 180 Tax-Credit / T-E Bonds5700 Madison - Jackson Development 112 HighPointe on Meridian - J.C. Hart 235 Alexia - TWG Development 175 Lawrence Seniors - TWG Development 60800 Capital - TWG Development 111 Lockerbie North - TWG Development 215 Pointe at Block 400 - Flaherty & Collins 162 Fall Creek View - TWG Dev. / PIHDC 50Ironworks on Keystone - Hendricks Commercial 105 Lofts at Pulliam Square - TWG Development 145 Fields at Franklin Road - Becovic 142 Penn Place - BWI 38Preserve at Willow Springs - Becovic 90 Quail Run II - Buckingham 132 Woodberry Ridge - Redwood Living 136 Totals - tax-credit 148Legacy Towns & Flats II - J.C. Hart 77 The Hamptons - Redwood Living 130 Templeton Ridge - Redwood Living 124White Lick Creek - Redwood Living 73 Flats at Switch - Loftus/Robinson & TWG 102 Forte - Von Deylen 64 2015 Expected Starts UnitsCentral State Mansion - Reverie Estates 67 Penn Street Tower - TWG Development 98 2131 North 47 Tax-Credit / T-E BondsNash at City Center - Pedcor 31 Redwood at Andover - Redwood Living 97 747 N. College - Milhaus 42 Illinois St Seniors - TWG Development 63Totals - market rate 2,931 The Woodlands - Redwood Living 93 Totals - market rate 3,460 Overlook at the Fairgrounds - BWI 49Totals - all 2013 3,183 Elmwod - Redwood Living 90 Totals - all 2015 3,602 Oxford Place - TWG Development 30

Beachside at Saxony - J.C. Hart 80 Totals - tax-credit 142Linden Square II - J.C. Hart 74Slate - Von Deylen 68Bailey Park of Brownsburg - Whitmore 66Millikan on Mass II - Insight / Flaherty & Collins 64Lawrence Senior - TWG Development 60Solana at the Crossing II - Milhaus Dev. 48Mezz on the Monon - AndersonBirkla 44Reflections at Bluestone II - Whitmore 44Circa II - Milhaus Development 30Totals - market rate 4,564Totals - all 2014 4,712

Indianapolis Metro Area Construction Starts - 2014

2014 done

2013 Starts Units 2014 Starts Units 2015 Expected Starts Units 2013 Starts UnitsMarket Rate Market Rate Market Rate Tax-Credit / T-E BondsFlats at Fishers Marketplace - Ackermann 306 Flats at 146 - Domo Development 368 Links on 96th - Herman & Kittle 444 Franklin Cove II - Pedcor 649 on Canal - IPA 304 Carmel Lakeside - J.C. Hart 283 Market Square Tower - Flaherty & Collins 300 Retreat on Washington - Pedcor 62Residence on Ronald Reagan - Samaritan 252 Villas at Watermark - Watermark Res. 266 The District - Edward Rose of Indiana 275 Clifton Square - BWI 57Depot at Nickel Plate - Flaherty & Collins 242 Arborwood on Mann Road - Herman & Kittle 260 CityWay II - Buckingham 270 Englewood Lofts - Englewood Development 24The Bridgewater - Justus 240 Seasons of Carmel - Barrett & Stokely & Pittman 256 The Vue - Herman & Kittle 240 Trotter's Pointe IV - Pedcor 24Circa - Milhaus Development 235 Casey Acres - Herman & Kittle 252 Harmony - J.C. Hart 240 Merici Village - TWG Dev. / MAH 21Watermark on Cumberland - Watermark Residential 220 Mentor & Muse - Milhaus Development 242 CRG Butler Site - CRG Residential 235 Totals - tax-credit 252Bella Vista - Edward Rose of Indiana 186 Southern Dunes - Sheehan 242 Olivia on Main - Keystone Development 204Stadium Flats - Core Redevelopment 144 La Cabreah - Domo Development 240 Keystone River Crossing site - Glick/PK 180 2014 Starts UnitsCumberland Pointe II - Barrett & Stokely 136 Double Creek Flats - Domo Development 240 Central Greens - TWG Development 180 Tax-Credit / T-E Bonds5700 Madison - Jackson Development 112 HighPointe on Meridian - J.C. Hart 235 Alexia - TWG Development 175 Lawrence Seniors - TWG Development 60800 Capital - TWG Development 111 Lockerbie North - TWG Development 215 Pointe at Block 400 - Flaherty & Collins 162 Fall Creek View - TWG Dev. / PIHDC 50Ironworks on Keystone - Hendricks Commercial 105 Lofts at Pulliam Square - TWG Development 145 Fields at Franklin Road - Becovic 142 Penn Place - BWI 38Preserve at Willow Springs - Becovic 90 Quail Run II - Buckingham 132 Woodberry Ridge - Redwood Living 136 Totals - tax-credit 148Legacy Towns & Flats II - J.C. Hart 77 The Hamptons - Redwood Living 130 Templeton Ridge - Redwood Living 124White Lick Creek - Redwood Living 73 Flats at Switch - Loftus/Robinson & TWG 102 Forte - Von Deylen 64 2015 Expected Starts UnitsCentral State Mansion - Reverie Estates 67 Penn Street Tower - TWG Development 98 2131 North 47 Tax-Credit / T-E BondsNash at City Center - Pedcor 31 Redwood at Andover - Redwood Living 97 747 N. College - Milhaus 42 Illinois St Seniors - TWG Development 63Totals - market rate 2,931 The Woodlands - Redwood Living 93 Totals - market rate 3,460 Overlook at the Fairgrounds - BWI 49Totals - all 2013 3,183 Elmwod - Redwood Living 90 Totals - all 2015 3,602 Oxford Place - TWG Development 30

Beachside at Saxony - J.C. Hart 80 Totals - tax-credit 142Linden Square II - J.C. Hart 74Slate - Von Deylen 68Bailey Park of Brownsburg - Whitmore 66Millikan on Mass II - Insight / Flaherty & Collins 64Lawrence Senior - TWG Development 60Solana at the Crossing II - Milhaus Dev. 48Mezz on the Monon - AndersonBirkla 44Reflections at Bluestone II - Whitmore 44Circa II - Milhaus Development 30Totals - market rate 4,564Totals - all 2014 4,712

Indianapolis Metro Area Construction Starts - 2014

2014 done

2013 Starts Units 2014 Starts Units 2015 Expected Starts Units 2013 Starts UnitsMarket Rate Market Rate Market Rate Tax-Credit / T-E BondsFlats at Fishers Marketplace - Ackermann 306 Flats at 146 - Domo Development 368 Links on 96th - Herman & Kittle 444 Franklin Cove II - Pedcor 649 on Canal - IPA 304 Carmel Lakeside - J.C. Hart 283 Market Square Tower - Flaherty & Collins 300 Retreat on Washington - Pedcor 62Residence on Ronald Reagan - Samaritan 252 Villas at Watermark - Watermark Res. 266 The District - Edward Rose of Indiana 275 Clifton Square - BWI 57Depot at Nickel Plate - Flaherty & Collins 242 Arborwood on Mann Road - Herman & Kittle 260 CityWay II - Buckingham 270 Englewood Lofts - Englewood Development 24The Bridgewater - Justus 240 Seasons of Carmel - Barrett & Stokely & Pittman 256 The Vue - Herman & Kittle 240 Trotter's Pointe IV - Pedcor 24Circa - Milhaus Development 235 Casey Acres - Herman & Kittle 252 Harmony - J.C. Hart 240 Merici Village - TWG Dev. / MAH 21Watermark on Cumberland - Watermark Residential 220 Mentor & Muse - Milhaus Development 242 CRG Butler Site - CRG Residential 235 Totals - tax-credit 252Bella Vista - Edward Rose of Indiana 186 Southern Dunes - Sheehan 242 Olivia on Main - Keystone Development 204Stadium Flats - Core Redevelopment 144 La Cabreah - Domo Development 240 Keystone River Crossing site - Glick/PK 180 2014 Starts UnitsCumberland Pointe II - Barrett & Stokely 136 Double Creek Flats - Domo Development 240 Central Greens - TWG Development 180 Tax-Credit / T-E Bonds5700 Madison - Jackson Development 112 HighPointe on Meridian - J.C. Hart 235 Alexia - TWG Development 175 Lawrence Seniors - TWG Development 60800 Capital - TWG Development 111 Lockerbie North - TWG Development 215 Pointe at Block 400 - Flaherty & Collins 162 Fall Creek View - TWG Dev. / PIHDC 50Ironworks on Keystone - Hendricks Commercial 105 Lofts at Pulliam Square - TWG Development 145 Fields at Franklin Road - Becovic 142 Penn Place - BWI 38Preserve at Willow Springs - Becovic 90 Quail Run II - Buckingham 132 Woodberry Ridge - Redwood Living 136 Totals - tax-credit 148Legacy Towns & Flats II - J.C. Hart 77 The Hamptons - Redwood Living 130 Templeton Ridge - Redwood Living 124White Lick Creek - Redwood Living 73 Flats at Switch - Loftus/Robinson & TWG 102 Forte - Von Deylen 64 2015 Expected Starts UnitsCentral State Mansion - Reverie Estates 67 Penn Street Tower - TWG Development 98 2131 North 47 Tax-Credit / T-E BondsNash at City Center - Pedcor 31 Redwood at Andover - Redwood Living 97 747 N. College - Milhaus 42 Illinois St Seniors - TWG Development 63Totals - market rate 2,931 The Woodlands - Redwood Living 93 Totals - market rate 3,460 Overlook at the Fairgrounds - BWI 49Totals - all 2013 3,183 Elmwod - Redwood Living 90 Totals - all 2015 3,602 Oxford Place - TWG Development 30

Beachside at Saxony - J.C. Hart 80 Totals - tax-credit 142Linden Square II - J.C. Hart 74Slate - Von Deylen 68Bailey Park of Brownsburg - Whitmore 66Millikan on Mass II - Insight / Flaherty & Collins 64Lawrence Senior - TWG Development 60Solana at the Crossing II - Milhaus Dev. 48Mezz on the Monon - AndersonBirkla 44Reflections at Bluestone II - Whitmore 44Circa II - Milhaus Development 30Totals - market rate 4,564Totals - all 2014 4,712

Indianapolis Metro Area Construction Starts - 2014

2014 done

Page 14: Indiana Apartment Market Overview - Tikijian Associates Apartment Marke… ·  · 2014-10-17Indiana Apartment Market Overview 2014 25 years. ... According to the report, ... South

14 15Multihousing Investment Advisors

2014 marked a year of very high demand for investment in multifamily properties and an inadequate supply of properties available to purchase, creating an increase in prices. Nationally, 2014 cap rates for multifamily sales averaged 6.0%, down 20 basis points from 2013 according to Real Capital Markets.

Indianapolis followed the same trend, as 2014 average actual Class A and B (combined) cap rates declined to 6.2%, down from 6.5% in the previous year. Cap rates based on buyer forecasted net operating income decreased almost 100 basis points, dropping to 6.3% from 7.2% last year. This drop illustrates a willingness among buyers to accept a lower going-in yield since such risk adjusted yields are still better than alternative investments. Sale prices of Class B or better properties in the Indianapolis metro area showed a 5% increase over 2013 sales to reach a record average price per unit of $93,200.

The decrease in the inventory of properties for sale also resulted in fewer sales transactions in 2014 than in the recent past. The total number of multifamily units sold in 2014 is down 35% from 2013. There are several reasons why fewer properties hit the market this year. First, more developers and owners are comfortable holding their properties with floating rate loans in place based on a reduced fear of interest rate increases since such rates have been low and stable for so long. Other owners have taken advantage of readily available permanent financing. In addition, some “would-be” sellers have struggled to find a suitable replacement property to complete a 1031 exchange, and these owners have opted to simply hold on to their properties to avoid paying capital gains tax on sale. Finally, some owners are holding with the expectation of improved property performance resulting in higher NOI and value creation. This hold strategy has been strengthened by the fact that the majority of multifamily properties are performing quite well. By contrast, those owners who are sellers believe that long term rates will eventually rise and have determined that now is an optimal time to sell to take advantage of the tremendous demand for product.

As a continuation of what was seen in 2013, there have been very few distressed or lender owned properties marketed for sale as the recovery from the great recession has progressed. In the Indianapolis metro area, only about 10% of the sales in the first three quarters of 2014 involved lender-owned properties.

The most active buyers in Indiana have historically been private equity investors and syndicated groups of high net worth individuals. However, 2014 sales continued the return of institutional investors to Indiana. The term “institutional capital” has evolved to include Private REITS, Hedge Funds and Family Office investors. These institutional and quasi-institutional buyers are generally seeking assets with stabilized in-place yields. So far the buyers of value-add opportunities are still primarily entrepreneurial and private equity groups.

Apartment Sales TransactionsAll Indianapolis Metro Properties

4,6006,000

4,700

7,7007,200

10,400

16,800

9,8008,900

6,100

4,800

13,100

9,0009,200

5,900

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

Num

ber o

f Uni

ts

Units Sold Total Consideration (millions)

10Months

Source: Tikijian Associates

Average Sale Cap RatesIndianapolis Metro Area - Class “B” or better

8.4% 8.5%

8.0%7.7%

6.7%6.5%

6.0% 5.9%

6.6%

8.6%

6.7%

7.2%

6.6% 6.5%6.2%

9.2%

10.2%

8.9%8.6%

8.4%

7.6%

7.0% 6.9%

8.2%

9.6%

8.8%8.6%

7.2% 7.2%

6.3%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cap

Rat

e

Actual Cap Rate Forecast Cap Rate

10Months

Source: Tikijian Associates

Average Price per UnitClass B or better, Over 100 Units

Indianapolis Metro Area

$48,900$54,200 $53,000

$65,500

$58,500

$45,800

$40,600

$55,800

$44,900

$77,100

$88,600$93,200

$52 $51$53

$64

$64

$56

$41

$56$49

$77

$92$97

$30$35$40$45$50$55$60$65$70$75$80$85$90$95$100

$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000$55,000$60,000$65,000$70,000$75,000$80,000$85,000$90,000$95,000

$100,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pric

e pe

r Squ

are

Foot

Pric

e pe

r Uni

t

Price per Unit Price per Sq. Ft. 10Months

Source: Tikijian Associates

Sales Activity

Transaction Volume Distressed Sales vs. Non-Distressed Sales

Indy Metro Area (by total units)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tota

l Uni

ts

Distressed Non-DistressedSource: Tikijian Associates

Page 15: Indiana Apartment Market Overview - Tikijian Associates Apartment Marke… ·  · 2014-10-17Indiana Apartment Market Overview 2014 25 years. ... According to the report, ... South

15Please visit www.TAmultihousing.com for more information

Selected 2014 Indiana Apartment Sales

BluestoneLauth Property Group

208 UnitsGreenfield

WoodridgeShamrock Communities

576 UnitsIndianapolis

Prairie LakesJVM Realty

402 UnitsNoblesville

SolanaInland Real Estate

384 UnitsIndianapolis

Brooklyn PlaceMount Auburn Capital Group

204 UnitsEvansville

Knobs PointeBRG Realty Group

384 UnitsNew Albany

Port O CallJames Management Group

604 UnitsIndianapolis

The AvenueCampus Advantage

142 UnitsIndianapolis

Creekbay at Meridian WoodsMuesing Management

208 UnitsIndianapolis

Buckingham PortfolioVarious

682 Total UnitsKokomo, Jeffersonville,

Mishawaka & Evansville

Waterside at CastletonWilkinson Corporation

400 UnitsIndianapolis

Oak CrossingSteadfast

222 UnitsFort Wayne

Avery PArk Beech Grove

reGency cluB Ashton FArms

Page 16: Indiana Apartment Market Overview - Tikijian Associates Apartment Marke… ·  · 2014-10-17Indiana Apartment Market Overview 2014 25 years. ... According to the report, ... South

Tikijian Associates is a boutique brokerage firm specializing exclusively in the representation of owners of multihousing communities in Indiana and Kentucky. The company was formed in early 2005 by George Tikijian, one of Indiana’s most respected real estate brokers. Tikijian Associates was founded with the specific goal of offering the highest achievable level of client service in the evaluation, marketing and sale of apartment communities.

Tikijian Associates has established itself as a major presence in the brokering of Midwest multi-family properties. Through broad marketing efforts, Tikijian Associates has received national reception and recognition beyond expectations. This exposure is believed to be one of the key ingredients to success as local investors are being joined by those coming from the coasts and various national markets.

With over 80 years of combined experience in commercial real estate, Tikijian Associates’ greatest asset is its team of unparalleled, skilled and dedicated professionals. In addition, the firm is committed to the maintenance and improvement of its state-of-the-art information technology, graphic design, and web-based/social media capabilities. This combination of talent and technology places Tikijian Associates at the forefront of the multihousing brokerage industry.

Multihousing Investment Advisors

unparalleled. team. expertise. service.

www.TAmultihousing.com

Find us on:

Hannah Ott, CCIMSenior Managing [email protected]

Duke HardySenior Managing Director

[email protected]

Christine NealisMarketing Director

[email protected]

Kimberly FetzerManaging Director

[email protected]

George Tikijian III, CCIMSenior Managing Director

[email protected]

Colin BabbittAssociate

[email protected]

3755 E. 82nd St., Suite 265, Indianapolis, IN 46240 - P(317) 578-0088 - F(317) 570-3677