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Multihousing Investment Advisors
Indiana Apartment Market Overview2 0 1 4
25years
2 3Multihousing Investment Advisors
2014 Key TopicsNational Rental Fundamentals – Historic Strong Occupancy and Rent Growth
National occupancy stood at 95.8% at the end of the third quarter, up from 95.7% last year, according to Reis research firm. Current occupancy is well above the 94.5% average occupancy for the last fifteen years. The increase comes in spite of robust new apartment construction in the past twelve month period. High occupancies have continued to result in healthy rent growth. Third quarter rents nationally were up 3.3% from this time last year and are up 15.2% since the end of the recession in 2009. The strong rental market is largely the result of (i) a lackluster home buying market due to stricter mortgage loan underwriting and (ii) a general shift in lifestyle preference to renting and the flexibility and freedom renting provides.
Millennials Continue (and Will Continue) to Fuel Rental Demand
According to the most recent Freddie Mac Economic and Housing Outlook, over the past four quarters the growth in net household formations has occurred primarily among renters and the decline in the homeownership rate is primarily concentrated among younger households. For those 35 years and younger (a prime rental demographic) the homeownership rate has fallen from 43.6% to 35.9% over the past decade. According to the report, there will be 8.3 million new Millennial households formed between now and the end of 2018 and most of these new households will be renters. The number of Millennials (those born between 1980-2000) is approximately 80 million strong.
Another Active Year in Development for Indianapolis Class A Properties
Because of strong rental fundamentals and rising sale prices, apartment construction is burgeoning. Except for Section 42 tax credit properties, development is occurring almost exclusively in Class A luxury apartments, including amenity-filled student properties. The cost of new construction is too high to justify market rate properties that won’t command premium rents. One consequence of the construction cost increase is that developers may have to forego developments in areas which cannot justify the required higher rents. The result may be additional development in the same affluent areas (downtown and the northside) and little new development in other submarkets. 2014 may represent the peak of development with more than 4,200 units delivered in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, the most in this millennium.
Easing Concern Regarding Increased Interest Rates
For some time after the spike in interest rates that occurred in the summer of 2013 (following the Fed’s hint of a potential tapering of its bond purchases), the risk of higher interest rates was a major concern for apartment investors. However, after the ten-year U.S. Treasury reached a high of almost 3.0% in August 2013, rates have fallen back and moved in a somewhat narrow range between 2.4% and 2.7%. There is now noticeably less angst regarding higher rates in 2015. The cause for this easing concern is the strong flow of capital to the United States due to (i) a general
Economic Overview
The Millennial ImpactNumber of Births by Year (1953-2013)
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,00019
5319
5519
5719
5919
6119
6319
6519
6719
6919
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
1120
13
Millennials
Source: US Census
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Economic Overview
anticipation of slowing global growth and (ii) a significant amount of turmoil abroad, ranging from the rise of ISIS/ISIL terrorism to Russian aggression in Eastern Europe to the Ebola virus outbreak in western Africa. In sum, the United States continues to offer the world’s safest investment environment and this fact should serve to temper any increases in the long treasury rate throughout 2015.
Declining Foreclosures and Distress Sales
Another concern overhanging the real estate market for several years has been the vast amount of loans, particularly CMBS loans, maturing between 2013 and 2018. The concern has been that owners will be unable to find satisfactory refinancing options, resulting in a flood of defaults. So far; those fears for multifamily properties have simply not materialized due primarily to continued low interest rates and strong rental fundamentals which have allowed owners threatened with maturity defaults to either refinance or sell their property at or above the loan amount. It now seems as though multifamily defaults are more the result of owner distress (inadequate capitalization or poor management) as opposed to financing issues.
Looking Forward
In the coming twelve months we foresee: (i) another healthy year for development due to demand, readily available capital, and good performance of new high-end product (we project 3,900 units to be delivered in 2015); (ii) a solid year for rents and occupancies, but with increasing pressure as a result of the substantial new deliveries; and (iii) another year in which demand will exceed supply for the acquisition of multifamily assets, keeping prices high and cap rates at historic lows, even if interest rates increase moderately.
2014 Key Topics
4 5Multihousing Investment Advisors
Economic OverviewIndiana EconomyIndiana continued to experience solid economic growth in 2014. An estimated 34,600 jobs were added in the state in the trailing twelve months through August and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.5%, the lowest since 2008. Indiana continues to receive high marks for its business climate. In 2014 the state was named best in the Midwest and the seventh best nationwide according to Area Development’s “Top States for Doing Business” survey. This business-friendly atmosphere has resulted in numerous planned new economic developments in every corner of the state. Below are but a few of the many projects announced in the last few months.
• Lafayette - GE Aviation to build $100 Million, 200 Employee Jet Engine Assembly Factory (3/26/14)
• Princeton - Toyota Investing $100M, Adding 300 Jobs to Build More Highlanders (8/22/14)
• Ft. Wayne - Shared Services Center to Add 320 Jobs in Fort Wayne (8/7/14)
• LaPorte – Alcoa Aerospace Division, To Invest $100M and Add 300+ New Jobs (5/29/14)
• Jamestown - Japanese Auto Parts Supplier to Locate New Operations Here – Create 195 Jobs (9/12/14)
• Tippecanoe County - British Agribusiness Investing $90+ Million in New Plant (7/15/14)
• Huntington County - Wisconsin Breakfast Food Producer Plans New $20M Processing Facility – Will Create 100 jobs (9/11/14)
• Elkhart County - Boat Manufacturer Adding 100 Jobs (10/1/14)
Indianapolis EconomyLike the state, economic activity in Indianapolis was vibrant in 2014. The city added 18,900 jobs in the trailing twelve months ended in August 2014. Indianapolis’ unemployment rate in August was 5.1%, down from 6.9% the same period last year - the lowest since prior to the recession. Indianapolis-area business developments announced in 2014 include:
• Cummins to Spend $30M on New Division Headquarters in Downtown Indy (3/28/14)
• Lowe’s Selects Indiana for New 1,000 Employee Customer Support Center
• Stonegate Mortgage Grows Indianapolis Headquarters, Adds 400 New Jobs (3/4/14)
• Hat World Unveils Major Expansion in Zionsville, Adding 750+ New Jobs (1/10/14)
• Health Management Company Expands Indy Headquarters, to Add Hundreds of Jobs across State (5/28/14)
• Email Application Developer Launches in Indianapolis. Plans 150 Employee Operation (2/27/14)
• National Beauty Retailer Locating Fulfillment Center in Greenwood, Adding 500+ New Jobs (4/10/14)
Job GrowthState of Indiana
(32,500)(5,600)
38,400
26,60018,900 12,300
(28,700)
(169,800)
9,700
45,30053,000
32,300 36,400
(180,000)
(160,000)
(140,000)
(120,000)
(100,000)
(80,000)
(60,000)
(40,000)
(20,000)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(T-12)
Cha
nge
in E
mpl
oym
ent
Total Establishment Employment -Indiana 8/14= 3,005,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Job GrowthIndianapolis MSA
(3,300)
7,900
13,10010,600
14,800 14,200
(1,500)
(41,200)
(1,400)
16,400
25,400
18,000 18,900
(50,000)
(40,000)
(30,000)
(20,000)
(10,000)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(T-12)
Cha
nge
in E
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oym
ent
Total Establishment Employment -Indianapolis MSA 8/14= 966,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment RateIndiana & Indianapolis MSA
5.3% 5.3% 5.4%5.0%
4.6%
5.9%
10.4% 10.1%
9.0%8.4%
7.5%
5.5%
4.8% 4.7% 4.8%4.4% 4.1%
5.1%
8.7%9.1%
8.4%7.8%
6.9%
5.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(Aug)
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
Indiana Indianapolis MSA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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2014 Indiana Cities Market Performance
CityMarket
Rent Growth
Avg. Rent/S.F.
Avg. Rent/Unit
MarketOccupancy
Anderson 0.0% $0.63 $580 91.3%
Bloomington 2.4% $0.98 $893 94.2%
Columbus 0.6% $0.91 $821 95.4%
Evansville 1.6% $0.74 $637 93.3%
Fort Wayne 0.7% $0.72 $603 93.2%
Indianapolis 1.2% $0.82 $738 92.0%
Kokomo 2.0% $0.68 $574 94.4%
Lafayette / W. Lafayette 2.5% $0.89 $789 93.3%
Muncie 2.6% $0.81 $741 95.6%
South Bend / Mishawaka 3.5% $0.81 $673 91.7%
Source: Tikijian Associates
20 78 20 64 72 21 65 22 322,115 10,425 2,934 10,881 17,408 3,018 10,885 2,646 10,599
91.3% 94.2% 95.4% 93.3% 93.2% 94.4% 93.3% 95.6% 91.7%0.0% 2.4% 0.6% 1.6% 0.7% 2.0% 2.5% 2.6% 3.5%$580 $894 $821 $637 $603 $574 $789 $741 $673$.63 $.99 $.91 $.74 $.72 $.68 $.89 $.81 $.81
Avg. Rent $384 $545 $509 $441 $452 $404 $569 $482 $464Avg. $ / SF $.93 $1.53 $1.62 $.98 $.98 $.88 $1.36 $1.38 $1.03Avg. Sq. Ft. 411 355 314 451 462 459 419 350 451Total Units 19 382 74 129 639 133 525 37 119Avg. Rent $514 $716 $747 $548 $524 $493 $603 $574 $586Avg. $ / SF $.74 $1.06 $1.06 $.80 $.79 $.75 $.92 $.90 $.85Avg. Sq. Ft. 693 675 705 687 663 653 655 635 688Total Units 499 3,103 871 4,761 7,357 829 3,508 651 4,935Avg. Rent $570 $717 $788 $645 $595 $569 $706 $645 $689Avg. $ / SF $.62 $.84 $.86 $.71 $.65 $.64 $.81 $.72 $.76Avg. Sq. Ft. 914 854 921 910 914 888 872 902 910Total Units 1,086 2,872 883 3,991 4,671 1,317 3,735 973 3,231Avg. Rent $663 $1,056 $914 $818 $719 $651 $868 $709 $816Avg. $ / SF $.71 $1.03 $.90 $.71 $.70 $.68 $.85 $.73 $.81Avg. Sq. Ft. 933 1,024 1,013 1,146 1,033 958 1,017 968 1,008Total Units 148 2,188 676 1,286 3,430 414 1,238 244 1,612Avg. Rent $672 $1,178 $955 $902 $845 $768 $1,089 $882 $1,037Avg. $ / SF $.55 $.91 $.80 $.73 $.67 $.64 $.83 $.77 $.81Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,223 1,298 1,200 1,234 1,264 1,209 1,312 1,145 1,277Total Units 345 1,433 383 672 1,267 319 1,159 515 472Avg. Rent $722 $1,862 $873 $840 $741 $790 $1,588 $1,388 $579Avg. $ / SF $.47 $1.23 $.64 $.59 $.57 $.51 $1.03 $1.05 $.43Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,539 1,509 1,361 1,414 1,293 1,553 1,545 1,318 1,337Total Units 18 447 47 42 44 6 663 226 28
3 Bedroom
4 Bedroom
Studio
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom/1 Bath
2 Bedroom/2 Bath
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Total PropertiesTotal Units
Occupancy Rate
Average Rent / Sq. Ft.Average Rent
Overall Rent Growth (2013 - 2014)
Indiana Rental Market Statistics
Average Occupancy by City
Source: Tikijian Associates
82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Green type represents an increase from 2013, black represents no change and red represents a decrease from 2013
6 7Multihousing Investment Advisors
MERRILLVILLE$872 / $0.95 / 89.1%
CROWN POINT$880 / $1.01 / 93.6%
SOUTH BEND$690 / $0.81 / 91.5%
MISHAWAKA$680 / $0.83 / 92.1%
ELKHART$614 / $0.72 / 94.5%
FT. WAYNE$603 / $0.72 / 93.2%
MARION$519 / $0.61 / 91.2%
MUNCIE$741 / $0.81 / 95.6%
ANDERSON$580 / $0.63 / 91.3%
KOKOMO$574 / $0.68 / 94.4%LAFAYETTE
$652 / $0.80 / 94.3%
WEST LAFAYETTE$932 / $0.96 / 92.2%
INDIANAPOLIS$738 / $0.82 / 92.0%
TERRE HAUTE$644 / $0.74 / 96.8%
COLUMBUS$821 / $0.91/ 95.4%BLOOMINGTON
$894 / $0.99 / 94.2%
RICHMOND$545 / $0.64 / 92.1%
EVANSVILLE$637 / $0.74 / 93.3%
NEW ALBANY$648 / $0.62 / 95.2%
JEFFERSONVILLE$661 / $0.73 / 94.5%
MICHIGAN CITY$585 / $0.73 / 91.8%
PORTAGE$736 / $0.83 / 96.2%
6965
74
70
465
74
70
65
64
164
469
80
94
CLARKSVILLE$615 / $0.67 / 94.3%
31
31
37
37
Indiana Average Rent and Occupancy
Indiana led
the nation in
manufacturing
job growth over
the past year
and is poised
to prosper
as American
manufacturing
becomes more
competitive
internationally.
(Avg Rent / Avg Rent peR sq ft / Avg OccupAncy)
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For the first time in five years, occupancy in the Indianapolis Metro area did not increase in 2014, dipping just a tick to 92.0% from 92.1% last year. Among submarkets, Downtown again led the city (for the fourth consecutive year) at 95.2%, although that represented a slight drop from last year’s 95.4%. The North submarket was again second in occupancy at 93.5%, unchanged from last year. The solid performance of these two high-occupancy submarkets, in spite of the delivery of a significant number of new units within those markets, is proof that increased development has to-date had little, if any, impact on occupancy.
Occupancy in other submarkets moved in different directions, with the East submarket climbing to 87.8% from 87.3% last year; the West submarket remaining unchanged at 91.0% and the South dipping to 92.4% from 93.0% last year. The improvement in the East submarket is largely driven by rehabs and management changes of a number of large distressed properties. The South submarket’s slight occupancy decline (in spite of no new construction) is believed to be due to a greater propensity of South side residents to buy homes.
Average gross rent for the Indianapolis Metro area grew at a 2.8% rate between 2013 and 2014. Downtown led all submarkets in rent growth with a 3.8% increase. Downtown rents now average $1.19 per square foot, a record high. All submarkets saw higher rents this year. Class A properties achieved the highest rent growth among property classes with an increase of 4.6% over last year. Class B and Class C properties saw 2.8% and 3.3% increases respectively. It should be noted that rent growth for Class B properties is impacted by the fact that our survey classifies all new Section 42 tax credit properties within the B Class. Many of those properties offer comparatively lower rents than properties without the rent and resident income restrictions of tax credit properties.
Total Apartment Base (units) 140,700Number of Communities (all) 747Number of Communities (> 200 units) 314Average Community Size (units) 190Average Occupancy Rate (2014) 92.0%Median Occupancy Rate (2014) 95.0%Rent Growth Rate (2013 to 2014) 2.8%Annual Rent Growth (2009 to 2014) 1.9%"Same Store" Annual Rent Growth (2009 to 2014) 1.0%"Same Store" Annual Rent Growth (2004 to 2014) 1.5%
Indpls Dwntwn North South East West Indy Indy IndyMetro Indpls Metro Metro Metro Metro Class Class ClassArea Area Area Area Area Area "A" "B" "C"
Total Properties 655 110 179 126 108 132 119 298 238Total Units 129,449 9,116 45,858 25,054 16,828 32,593 30,026 60,297 39,126
Occupancy Rate 92.0% 95.2% 93.5% 92.4% 87.8% 91.0% 94.3% 94.0% 87.2%2.8% 3.8% 3.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% 4.6% 2.8% 3.3%
Average Rent $738 $951 $813 $696 $610 $672 $992 $703 $598Average Rent / Sq. Ft. $.82 $1.19 $.86 $.79 $.69 $.77 $1.02 $.78 $.72
Avg. Rent $516 $594 $541 $478 $435 $458 $872 $526 $462Avg. $ / SF $1.19 $1.27 $1.19 $1.25 $1.11 $1.09 $1.56 $1.13 $1.17
Avg. Sq. Ft. 434 466 456 383 392 420 561 467 396Total Units 4,011 1,073 1,099 476 531 832 303 1,459 2,249Avg. Rent $656 $831 $716 $618 $539 $577 $867 $616 $544
Avg. $ / SF $.94 $1.20 $.98 $.89 $.81 $.85 $1.14 $.89 $.82Avg. Sq. Ft. 701 693 732 697 667 678 759 694 663Total Units 48,556 4,891 17,508 8,796 5,101 12,260 11,937 22,139 14,480Avg. Rent $671 $845 $741 $666 $600 $646 $895 $699 $607
Avg. $ / SF $.73 $.93 $.77 $.74 $.65 $.73 $.96 $.76 $.67Avg. Sq. Ft. 917 908 959 897 922 888 932 922 909Total Units 35,177 810 9,367 8,139 7,509 9,352 2,324 17,053 15,800Avg. Rent $899 $1,342 $936 $815 $718 $803 $1,064 $793 $682
Avg. $ / SF $.83 $1.23 $.84 $.77 $.71 $.77 $.96 $.74 $.67Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,083 1,093 1,120 1,058 1,018 1,042 1,106 1,077 1,019Total Units 29,004 1,983 13,632 5,111 1,738 6,540 12,647 13,214 3,143Avg. Rent $925 $1,211 $1,044 $878 $776 $878 $1,219 $868 $795
Avg. $ / SF $.72 $.93 $.76 $.71 $.62 $.70 $.92 $.67 $.63Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,294 1,307 1,378 1,231 1,246 1,260 1,321 1,295 1,271Total Units 11,774 182 4,103 2,336 1,756 3,397 2,625 5,811 3,338Avg. Rent $1,149 $2,243 $1,152 $775 $839 $863 $2,344 $840 $849
Avg. $ / SF $.80 $1.50 $.73 $.57 $.60 $.61 $1.52 $.60 $.56Avg. Sq. Ft. 1,440 1,497 1,571 1,363 1,400 1,408 1,538 1,398 1,508Total Units 927 177 149 196 193 212 190 621 116
Overall Rent Growth (2013 - 2014)
3 Bedroom
4 Bedroom
Studio
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom/1 Bath
2 Bedroom/2 Bath
Indianapolis Rental Market Statistics
Total Apartment Base in units (140,700) and communities (747) equals all properties in the metro area, including properties still under construction, fully subsidized properties, and smaller properties not part of the Tikijian Associates Annual Rent Survey. The total units (129,449) and properties (655) shown in the Occupancy and Rent chart below are properties included in the Annual Rent Survey.
8 9Multihousing Investment Advisors
Same Store Rent GrowthIndianapolis Metro Area
1.0%
1.5%1.4%
2.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-Year
1-YearAnnualGrowth
10-YearAnnualGrowth
20-YearAnnualGrowth
5-YearAnnualGrowth
Source: Tikijian Associates
Indianapolis Rental Market Statistics
As would be expected, new properties command higher rents than older properties and Class A rents are higher than lower classes. What is surprising, however, is how much higher the rents are in newer Class A properties than in slightly older Class A and B properties (more than $.20 per square foot). This significant difference is primarily because (i) the newest properties have been built in locations with high (and increasing) land costs (ii) the newest properties offer exceptionally high-end amenities and unit interiors and (iii) construction costs have risen significantly recently, forcing owners to charge higher prices. To date, these new higher end properties are being readily accepted by renters and absorbed at a high rate due to the shift toward renting as a lifestyle preference and an improving employment environment providing more young renters with the means to afford higher rents.
“Same Store Rent Growth” is the rent growth of properties that have been in existence during an entire respective survey period. Properties built during a respective study period are not included in that period.
Average Rent per Square Footby Year Built & by Class – Indianapolis Metro Area
$1.02
$0.78
$0.72
$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
Class "A" Class "B" Class "C"
$1.08
$0.87$0.90
$0.86
$0.74 $0.73
$0.86
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
$1.15
$1.20
2010's 2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's 1960's Prior to1960's
Includessome
downtownrehabs
Source: Tikijian Associates
By Year Built By Class
Historical Average Rent Growth RateIndianapolis Metro Area
4.5%
1.1%
4.5% 4.6%
4.1%
3.7%
1.8%
2.7%
3.9%
2.9%
5.6%
2.3%
1.7%
3.3%
2.5%
3.3%
1.7% 1.2%
0.5% 0.5%
1.3%
1.8%
3.0%
0.9% 0.8%
2.7% 2.5%
2.1%
2.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Aver
age
Ren
t Gro
wth
Rat
e
Source: Tikijian Associates
Historical Average RentIndianapolis Metro Area
$356 $3
72$3
76 $393 $4
11 $428 $4
44 $452 $4
64 $482 $4
96 $524 $5
36 $545 $5
63 $577 $5
96 $606
$613
$616
$619 $627 $6
38 $657
$663
$668 $6
86 $703 $7
18 $738
$300$325$350$375$400$425$450$475$500$525$550$575$600$625$650$675$700$725$750$775$800
Aver
age
Ren
t
Source: Tikijian Associates
The graph above illustrates a 30 year unbroken string of rent increases in the Indianapolis Metro area. These rents reflect gross rents. In the early 2000’s when the rental market was experiencing softness due to home buying, there were years in which “effective rents” (rents after concessions) actually declined. Now, as more owners employ revenue management software, concessions are used less often.
Rent, including the highest rents offered at brand new properties, grew at an overall 2.8% rate in 2014, up from the 2.1% growth in 2013. The growth in 2014 was the strongest since prior to the great recession.
2014 marked the first year in which Class A rents for the entire Metro area topped $1.00 per square foot, reaching $1.02, up from $.98 per square foot in 2013. The increase is attributable to the new luxury apartments downtown and on the far north side with the highest rents now exceeding $1.50 per square foot. Class B properties saw average rents increase by two cents to $.78 per sq. ft. and Class C rents grew by a penny to $.72 per sq. ft.
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Indianapolis Rental Market Statistics
Annual Rental Revenue Growth30 Property Sample – Class A & B - Well Managed
2.9%3.5%
2.7%
4.1%
-1.4%
1.5%
4.9%
3.4%2.7%
1.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5 Year Average
3.2%
Source: Tikijian Associates
In 2014:properties with rent revenue growth = 22
Properties with rent revenue declines = 8
Overall Market Vacancy RateIndianapolis Metro Area
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Proj.
Vaca
ncy
Rat
e
• 2015 vacancy rate forecast assumes 3,800 units absorbed as compared to 3,800 units actually absorbed in 2014. We are assuming higher absorption (vs. 3,500 projected units in 2014) due to macro trends favoring renting.
• We are projecting 3,700 units will be delivered in 2015, hence the projected vacancy declines to 7.6%** Average annual absorption has been 3,300 units since 2010
Source: Tikijian Associates
Metro Indianapolis apartment occupancy was 92.0% in 2014, down slightly from 92.1% in 2013. It must be noted, however, that occupancy in both 2013 and 2014 are the highest since 1997. Occupancy is fueled by high demand from Millennials who (i) are unable to buy homes due to student debt and/or tight lender standards for home buying or (ii) simply prefer to rent as a lifestyle choice.
New Apartment Units (% of Base) vs. Market Vacancy Rate
Indianapolis Metro Area
7.1%
9.7%
11.2%
9.4%
7.7%
8.8%8.1%
7.1%
6.2%
6.8%
8.1%
6.4%
8.9%
9.2%
9.2%
9.3%
10.4%
12.0% 12.2%
11.0% 10.4%
9.9%9.2%
10.7%
9.2%
8.6%8.3%
7.9%
8.0%
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%
New units as a % of base Vacancy Rate
Source: Tikijian Associates
Occupancy Rate by ClassIndianapolis Metro Area
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
Class "A" Class "B" Class "C"
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Tikijian Associates
The chart above illustrates rent growth of a sample of 30 well-managed class A and B properties. The rent decline in 2009 was the result of stagnant rents and increased concessions during the recession. This year’s rent growth for such properties was the smallest since 2010. The reason rent growth is lower among this sample of 30 properties than the rent growth for the larger market is that the larger market includes the very high rents commanded by the newest properties and the sample does not include any new properties (the newest property in this sample was built in 2003). The revenue growth is effectively “same store” revenue growth.
Class A occupancy dipped slightly in 2014, from 94.8% to 94.3%. Class B occupancy however, increased to 94.0% from 93.2% in 2013. Occupancy at Class C properties dropped to 87.2% in 2014, down from 87.8% last year. It should be noted that the C properties generally include a number of distressed communities, negatively impacting both occupancy and rent.
This chart shows the number of new apartment units completed in a given year as a percentage of the overall inventory. The total market vacancy rate is also shown to contrast unit additions against the overall market vacancy. 2014 vacancy rate remained near a 15 year low in spite of the large number of new units delivered. 2014 saw the largest amount of new units as a percent of the base since the mid 1980’s.
10 11Multihousing Investment Advisors
New Construction32
,086
33,9
46
32,6
79
34,1
75
34,3
69
33,8
38
26,0
37
20,4
92
12,3
04
10,0
39
10,5
50
9,83
5
11,0
89
12,6
39
12,5
64
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Num
ber o
f Per
mits
Single Family (1 - 4 units) Multi-family (5+ units)
Total Residential Building PermitsState of Indiana
Trailing12
Monthsthru 8/14
Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch
10 yr. Avg.
5 yr. Avg.
A total of 12,564 single family residential building permits were issued in the state in the trailing twelve months through August 2014, basically unchanged from the same period last year (which was the most since 2007). Multifamily permits (5+ units) were issued for 5,674 units in the trailing 12 months, up from 3,577 units in the same period in 2013. The multifamily permits are above the trailing 5-year average but below the trailing 10-year average.
Permits for 4,987 single family homes were issued in Indianapolis in the trailing 12 months through August compared with 5,191 units in the same period in 2013. Multifamily units permitted totaled 3,136, up from 2,880 in 2013. As was the case with state permits, the trailing 12 month permit number was above the trailing 5-year average but lower than the trailing 10-year average.
13,4
18 15,6
20
13,9
90
13,2
35
13,0
25
13,2
32
9,99
2
7,55
4
4,56
1
3,73
2
4,08
8
3,77
7
4,14
4
5,19
1
4,98
7
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Num
ber o
f Per
mits
Single Family (1 - 4 units) Multi-family (5+ units)
10 yr. Avg.
Total Residential Building PermitsIndianapolis Metro Area
Trailing12
Monthsthru 8/14
Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch
5 yr. Avg.
Ironworks
Monon Place Stadium Lofts & Flats
The Hamilton
11Please visit www.TAmultihousing.com for more information
By the end of the year an additional 4,200 new units will have been added in 2014 to the apartment stock of Indianapolis, the most since the beginning of this millennium. We project an additional 3,900 units will be delivered in 2015. The vast majority of these new deliveries are Downtown, which saw 1,412 units delivered in 2014, and the northern suburbs (including Indianapolis’ far north side and Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville, Westfield and Zionsville) in which 2,112 new units came on line. The new development map on the following page illustrates the continuing trend toward development of very high end luxury properties in these same affluent high growth markets.
Multifamily building permits issued in Indiana in the trailing 12 months through August represented 30% of the total housing units permitted. In Indianapolis multifamily permits were 32% of the total. These percentages compare to 36% nationally. The percentages illustrate the growing popularity of apartments. Until a few years ago, the percentage of multifamily permits as a portion of total permits was in the teens.
Multifamily Building Permitsas a % of Total Housing Permits
18%
13%15% 15%
12%
9%
31%29%
23% 23%
14%
34%32%
16%14%
12% 12%11%
14%
23%
14% 15%
19% 20%
28%30%
19% 18% 18% 17%
20%
25%
32%
20% 21%
29%
33% 34%36%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Indy MSA Indiana National
Trailing12
Monthsthru 8/14
Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch
Monthly Total Residential Building PermitsIndianapolis MSA
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000N
umbe
r of P
erm
its
Total Residential Permits
Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch
New Apartment DevelopmentIndianapolis Metro Area
2,26
1
1,91
7
1,09
9
2,37
7
946
1,09
9
2,52
6
2,48
4
1,75
2
2,92
6
1,93
9
4,20
0
3,90
0
2,54
9
2,33
0
2,38
7
1,34
9
744
2,42
1
1,86
8
1,73
6
1,48
2
800
2,88
0
3,13
6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014est.
2015proj.
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts
Placed in Service (Tikijian Associates) Building Permits (US Government)
Trailing12 Mos.
8/14
Source: Tikijian Associates survey of developers & US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch
New Construction
Single & Multifamily Building PermitsIndianapolis MSA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Num
ber o
f Per
mits
Single Family Multifamily
Source: US Census Bureau, Residential Construction Branch
These two graphs display the total housing permits and the breakdown of permits between multifamily and single family building permits on a monthly basis.
9 on Canal
12 13Multihousing Investment Advisors
INDIANAPOLIS
CARMELFISHERS
ZIONSVILLE
GREENWOOD
PLAINFIELD
AVON
BROWNSBURG
GREENFIELD
WESTFIELD
31
86TH ST
MERI
DIAN
ST
465
136
3640
52
36
71ST ST
62ND ST
56TH ST
46TH ST
38TH ST
30TH ST
79TH ST79TH ST
KESSLER BLVD56TH ST
46TH ST
96TH ST
106TH ST
116TH ST
131ST ST
146TH ST
KEYSTONE AVE
MICHIGAN RD
COLLEGE AVE
16TH ST10TH ST
RAYMOND STWASHINGTON ST
THOMPSON AVE
EDGEWOOD AVE
SOUTHPORT RD
STOP 11 RD
CO. LINE RD
MANN
RD
MOOR
ESVIL
LE R
D
SHELBYVILLE RD
ARLINGTON AVE
EMERSON AVE
FRANKLIN RDPOST RD
GERMAN CHURCH RD
21ST ST
79TH ST
86TH ST
126TH ST
OLIO RD
HAGUE RD
CUMBERLAND RD
MOORE RD
LAFAYETTE RD
ZIONSVILLE RD
32
238
38
32
MOORESVILLE
267
NOBLESVILLE38
BEACHSIDE AT SAXONY(80 - MR)
THE HAMILTON(233 - MR)
65
74
70
74
70
69
421
9
70
INDIANAPOLISINT’L AIRPORT40
13531
WHITELAND RD
SPRING MILL RD HAZE
L DEL
L RD
13
134
DAN JONES RD
DANVILLE
LEBANON
39
W 200 S
ALLIS
ONVI
LLE
RDBIN
FORD BL
VD
431
3767
267
144
MONON PLACE PH II (136 - MR)
132
32
UNION STREET FLATSAT GRAND JUNCTION
(237 - MR) GRAY
RD
REFLECTIONS II(44 - IL)
HIGHPOINTE ON MERIDAN(235 - MR)
82 FLATS AT THE CROSSING(232 - MR)
FLATS AT FISHERS MARKETPLACE(306 - MR)
LINDEN SQUARE II(74 - MR)
PRESERVE AT WILLOW SPRINGS(90 - MR) SOPHIA AT THE CROSSING
(240 - MR)
THE POINTE ON FALL CREEK(59 - TC)
SOLANA AT THE CROSSING(384 - MR)
QUAIL RUN II(132 - MR)
THE MEZZ ON THE MONON(44- MR)
THE NASH(31- MR)
IRONWORKS AT KEYSTONE(117 - MR)
FRANKLIN COVE II(64 - TC)
TROTTER’S POINTE PH.IV(24 - TC)
ARBORWOOD ATMANN RD(260 - MR)
RESIDENCES ONRONALD REAGAN
(252- MR)
BAILEY PARKOF BROWNSBURG
(66 - IL)
ILLINOIS PLACE(50 - TC)
CLIFTON SQUARE(57 - TC)
CASEY ACRES(252 - MR)
WATERMARK ON CUMBERLAND
(220- MR)
WOODLAND TRACE OF CARMEL(87- IL)
LEGACY TOWNS II(75 - MR)
THE BRIDGEWATER(240 - MR) CUMBERLAND POINTE II
(136 - MR)
THE DEPOT ATNICKEL PLATE
(242 - MR)
5700 MADISON AVE(112 - MR)
THE FARM AT ZIONSVILLE(250 - MR)
OLIVIA ON MAIN(204 - MR)
FLATS AT 146(368 - MR)
THE SEASONS OF CARMEL(256 - MR)
SEE DOWNTOWNDEVELOPMENT MAP
FIELDS AT FRANKLIN RD(142 - MR)
CANAL POINTE(122 - MR)
BELLA VISTA(180 - MR)
LAKESIDE CARMEL(283- MR)
THE HAMPTONS(130 - MR)
WHITE LICK CREEK(73 - MR)
ELMWOOD(126 - MR)
VILLAS AT WATERMARK(266 - MR)
THE WOODLANDS(93- MR)
WOODBERRY RIDGE(136 - MR)
TEMPLETON RIDGE(124 - MR)
FALLCREEK VIEW(50 - TC)
LAWRENCE SENIOR APARTMENTS(60 - TC)
THE FLATSAT SWITCH(102 - MR)
HARMONY(240 - MR)
THE DISTRICT(275 - MR)
REDWOOD AT ANDOVER ROAD(97- MR)
THE LINKS ON 96TH(444 - MR)
CRG BUTLER SITE(235 - MR)
KEYSTONE RIVER CROSSING SITE(180 - MR)
OVERLOOK AT THE FAIRGROUNDS(49 - TC)
37
NOBLE WEST(320 - MR)
THE BRIDGES(300 - MR)
LACABREAH(240 - MR)
DOUBLE CREEK FLATS(240 - MR)
SOUTHERN DUNES(224 - MR)
OAK ST
UNION CHAPEL RD
DEVELOPMENT STAGE
PLANNED
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
RECENTLY COMPLETED
SUBSTANTIAL REHAB
SENIOR HOUSING
NUMBER OF UNITS
TAX CREDIT
MARKET RATE
INDEPENDENT LIVING (SENIOR)
(123)(TC)(MR)
(IL)
2014 Indianapolis Apartment Development
Northside Apartment DevelopmentIndy North, Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville, Westfield & Zionsville
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,000
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts
Indy North Carmel Fishers Noblesville Westfield Zionsville
768878
656
337184
344 400
735
1,096935
760856
1,021
2,112 2,112
2,475
572
New Units Delivered
Source: Tikijian Associates survey of developers
424
Downtown Apartment DevelopmentIndianapolis Downtown
124 88 133 16383 68
090
236165
335452
717
516
1,412
715
1,044
1,207
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts
New Units Delivered
Source: Tikijian Associates survey of developers
13Please visit www.TAmultihousing.com for more information
VIRGINIA AVE
INDIANA AVE
MASSACHUSETTS AVE
MERI
DIAN
ST
NEW YORK ST
10TH ST
16TH STSENA
TE A
VE
22ND ST
OHIO ST
CAPI
TOL A
VE
DELA
WAR
E ST
WASHINGTON ST
EAST
ST
COLLEGE AVE
ARTISTRY(258 - MR)
POINT AT BLOCK 400(160 - MR)
31
31
4040
421
STADIUM FLATS(144 - MR)
STADIUM LOFTS(138 - MR)
333 PENN(78 - MR)
FIRE HOUSESITEAXIS
(336 - MR)
9 ON CANAL(304 - MR)
65
70
70
70
65
ENGLEWOOD LOFTS(24 - TC)
CIRCA I & II(265 - MR)
PENN
SYLV
ANIA
ST
CENTRAL STATE MANSION(67UNITS/138BEDS - MR)
LINCOLN(75 - TC)
800 N CAPITAL(111 - MR)
PENN PLACE(38 - TC)
MILLIKAN ON MASS I & II(125 - MR/TC)
MICHIGAN ST
WES
T ST
PENN STREET TOWER(98 - MR)
10TH ST
MICHIGAN ST
RETREAT ON WASHINGTON(62 - TC)
S HA
RDIN
G ST
BELM
ONT A
VE
E RI
VERS
IDE
DR
30TH ST
LAFAYETTE RD
LOFTS AT PULLIAM SQUARE(145 - MR)
MARKET SQUARE TOWER(300 - MR)
SLATE(68 - MR)
OXFORD PLACE(30 - TC)
CENTRAL GREENS(180 - MR)
DI RIMINI(31 - MR)
2131 NORTH(31 - MR)
747 COLLAGE(42 - MR)
MENTOR/MUSE(242 - MR)
ALEXIA(175 - MR)
THE VUE(240 - MR)
LOCKERBIE NORTH(215 - MR)
CITY WAY PH II(270 - MR)
FORTE(64 - MR)
2014 Indianapolis Downtown Development
DEVELOPMENT STAGE
PLANNED
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
RECENTLY COMPLETED
SUBSTANTIAL REHAB
SENIOR HOUSING
NUMBER OF UNITS
TAX CREDIT
MARKET RATE
INDEPENDENT LIVING (SENIOR)
(123)(TC)(MR)
(IL)
2013 Starts Units 2014 Starts Units 2015 Expected Starts Units 2013 Starts UnitsMarket Rate Market Rate Market Rate Tax-Credit / T-E BondsFlats at Fishers Marketplace - Ackermann 306 Flats at 146 - Domo Development 368 Links on 96th - Herman & Kittle 444 Franklin Cove II - Pedcor 649 on Canal - IPA 304 Carmel Lakeside - J.C. Hart 283 Market Square Tower - Flaherty & Collins 300 Retreat on Washington - Pedcor 62Residence on Ronald Reagan - Samaritan 252 Villas at Watermark - Watermark Res. 266 The District - Edward Rose of Indiana 275 Clifton Square - BWI 57Depot at Nickel Plate - Flaherty & Collins 242 Arborwood on Mann Road - Herman & Kittle 260 CityWay II - Buckingham 270 Englewood Lofts - Englewood Development 24The Bridgewater - Justus 240 Seasons of Carmel - Barrett & Stokely & Pittman 256 The Vue - Herman & Kittle 240 Trotter's Pointe IV - Pedcor 24Circa - Milhaus Development 235 Casey Acres - Herman & Kittle 252 Harmony - J.C. Hart 240 Merici Village - TWG Dev. / MAH 21Watermark on Cumberland - Watermark Residential 220 Mentor & Muse - Milhaus Development 242 CRG Butler Site - CRG Residential 235 Totals - tax-credit 252Bella Vista - Edward Rose of Indiana 186 Southern Dunes - Sheehan 242 Olivia on Main - Keystone Development 204Stadium Flats - Core Redevelopment 144 La Cabreah - Domo Development 240 Keystone River Crossing site - Glick/PK 180 2014 Starts UnitsCumberland Pointe II - Barrett & Stokely 136 Double Creek Flats - Domo Development 240 Central Greens - TWG Development 180 Tax-Credit / T-E Bonds5700 Madison - Jackson Development 112 HighPointe on Meridian - J.C. Hart 235 Alexia - TWG Development 175 Lawrence Seniors - TWG Development 60800 Capital - TWG Development 111 Lockerbie North - TWG Development 215 Pointe at Block 400 - Flaherty & Collins 162 Fall Creek View - TWG Dev. / PIHDC 50Ironworks on Keystone - Hendricks Commercial 105 Lofts at Pulliam Square - TWG Development 145 Fields at Franklin Road - Becovic 142 Penn Place - BWI 38Preserve at Willow Springs - Becovic 90 Quail Run II - Buckingham 132 Woodberry Ridge - Redwood Living 136 Totals - tax-credit 148Legacy Towns & Flats II - J.C. Hart 77 The Hamptons - Redwood Living 130 Templeton Ridge - Redwood Living 124White Lick Creek - Redwood Living 73 Flats at Switch - Loftus/Robinson & TWG 102 Forte - Von Deylen 64 2015 Expected Starts UnitsCentral State Mansion - Reverie Estates 67 Penn Street Tower - TWG Development 98 2131 North 47 Tax-Credit / T-E BondsNash at City Center - Pedcor 31 Redwood at Andover - Redwood Living 97 747 N. College - Milhaus 42 Illinois St Seniors - TWG Development 63Totals - market rate 2,931 The Woodlands - Redwood Living 93 Totals - market rate 3,460 Overlook at the Fairgrounds - BWI 49Totals - all 2013 3,183 Elmwod - Redwood Living 90 Totals - all 2015 3,602 Oxford Place - TWG Development 30
Beachside at Saxony - J.C. Hart 80 Totals - tax-credit 142Linden Square II - J.C. Hart 74Slate - Von Deylen 68Bailey Park of Brownsburg - Whitmore 66Millikan on Mass II - Insight / Flaherty & Collins 64Lawrence Senior - TWG Development 60Solana at the Crossing II - Milhaus Dev. 48Mezz on the Monon - AndersonBirkla 44Reflections at Bluestone II - Whitmore 44Circa II - Milhaus Development 30Totals - market rate 4,564Totals - all 2014 4,712
Indianapolis Metro Area Construction Starts - 2014
2014 done
2013 Starts Units 2014 Starts Units 2015 Expected Starts Units 2013 Starts UnitsMarket Rate Market Rate Market Rate Tax-Credit / T-E BondsFlats at Fishers Marketplace - Ackermann 306 Flats at 146 - Domo Development 368 Links on 96th - Herman & Kittle 444 Franklin Cove II - Pedcor 649 on Canal - IPA 304 Carmel Lakeside - J.C. Hart 283 Market Square Tower - Flaherty & Collins 300 Retreat on Washington - Pedcor 62Residence on Ronald Reagan - Samaritan 252 Villas at Watermark - Watermark Res. 266 The District - Edward Rose of Indiana 275 Clifton Square - BWI 57Depot at Nickel Plate - Flaherty & Collins 242 Arborwood on Mann Road - Herman & Kittle 260 CityWay II - Buckingham 270 Englewood Lofts - Englewood Development 24The Bridgewater - Justus 240 Seasons of Carmel - Barrett & Stokely & Pittman 256 The Vue - Herman & Kittle 240 Trotter's Pointe IV - Pedcor 24Circa - Milhaus Development 235 Casey Acres - Herman & Kittle 252 Harmony - J.C. Hart 240 Merici Village - TWG Dev. / MAH 21Watermark on Cumberland - Watermark Residential 220 Mentor & Muse - Milhaus Development 242 CRG Butler Site - CRG Residential 235 Totals - tax-credit 252Bella Vista - Edward Rose of Indiana 186 Southern Dunes - Sheehan 242 Olivia on Main - Keystone Development 204Stadium Flats - Core Redevelopment 144 La Cabreah - Domo Development 240 Keystone River Crossing site - Glick/PK 180 2014 Starts UnitsCumberland Pointe II - Barrett & Stokely 136 Double Creek Flats - Domo Development 240 Central Greens - TWG Development 180 Tax-Credit / T-E Bonds5700 Madison - Jackson Development 112 HighPointe on Meridian - J.C. Hart 235 Alexia - TWG Development 175 Lawrence Seniors - TWG Development 60800 Capital - TWG Development 111 Lockerbie North - TWG Development 215 Pointe at Block 400 - Flaherty & Collins 162 Fall Creek View - TWG Dev. / PIHDC 50Ironworks on Keystone - Hendricks Commercial 105 Lofts at Pulliam Square - TWG Development 145 Fields at Franklin Road - Becovic 142 Penn Place - BWI 38Preserve at Willow Springs - Becovic 90 Quail Run II - Buckingham 132 Woodberry Ridge - Redwood Living 136 Totals - tax-credit 148Legacy Towns & Flats II - J.C. Hart 77 The Hamptons - Redwood Living 130 Templeton Ridge - Redwood Living 124White Lick Creek - Redwood Living 73 Flats at Switch - Loftus/Robinson & TWG 102 Forte - Von Deylen 64 2015 Expected Starts UnitsCentral State Mansion - Reverie Estates 67 Penn Street Tower - TWG Development 98 2131 North 47 Tax-Credit / T-E BondsNash at City Center - Pedcor 31 Redwood at Andover - Redwood Living 97 747 N. College - Milhaus 42 Illinois St Seniors - TWG Development 63Totals - market rate 2,931 The Woodlands - Redwood Living 93 Totals - market rate 3,460 Overlook at the Fairgrounds - BWI 49Totals - all 2013 3,183 Elmwod - Redwood Living 90 Totals - all 2015 3,602 Oxford Place - TWG Development 30
Beachside at Saxony - J.C. Hart 80 Totals - tax-credit 142Linden Square II - J.C. Hart 74Slate - Von Deylen 68Bailey Park of Brownsburg - Whitmore 66Millikan on Mass II - Insight / Flaherty & Collins 64Lawrence Senior - TWG Development 60Solana at the Crossing II - Milhaus Dev. 48Mezz on the Monon - AndersonBirkla 44Reflections at Bluestone II - Whitmore 44Circa II - Milhaus Development 30Totals - market rate 4,564Totals - all 2014 4,712
Indianapolis Metro Area Construction Starts - 2014
2014 done
2013 Starts Units 2014 Starts Units 2015 Expected Starts Units 2013 Starts UnitsMarket Rate Market Rate Market Rate Tax-Credit / T-E BondsFlats at Fishers Marketplace - Ackermann 306 Flats at 146 - Domo Development 368 Links on 96th - Herman & Kittle 444 Franklin Cove II - Pedcor 649 on Canal - IPA 304 Carmel Lakeside - J.C. Hart 283 Market Square Tower - Flaherty & Collins 300 Retreat on Washington - Pedcor 62Residence on Ronald Reagan - Samaritan 252 Villas at Watermark - Watermark Res. 266 The District - Edward Rose of Indiana 275 Clifton Square - BWI 57Depot at Nickel Plate - Flaherty & Collins 242 Arborwood on Mann Road - Herman & Kittle 260 CityWay II - Buckingham 270 Englewood Lofts - Englewood Development 24The Bridgewater - Justus 240 Seasons of Carmel - Barrett & Stokely & Pittman 256 The Vue - Herman & Kittle 240 Trotter's Pointe IV - Pedcor 24Circa - Milhaus Development 235 Casey Acres - Herman & Kittle 252 Harmony - J.C. Hart 240 Merici Village - TWG Dev. / MAH 21Watermark on Cumberland - Watermark Residential 220 Mentor & Muse - Milhaus Development 242 CRG Butler Site - CRG Residential 235 Totals - tax-credit 252Bella Vista - Edward Rose of Indiana 186 Southern Dunes - Sheehan 242 Olivia on Main - Keystone Development 204Stadium Flats - Core Redevelopment 144 La Cabreah - Domo Development 240 Keystone River Crossing site - Glick/PK 180 2014 Starts UnitsCumberland Pointe II - Barrett & Stokely 136 Double Creek Flats - Domo Development 240 Central Greens - TWG Development 180 Tax-Credit / T-E Bonds5700 Madison - Jackson Development 112 HighPointe on Meridian - J.C. Hart 235 Alexia - TWG Development 175 Lawrence Seniors - TWG Development 60800 Capital - TWG Development 111 Lockerbie North - TWG Development 215 Pointe at Block 400 - Flaherty & Collins 162 Fall Creek View - TWG Dev. / PIHDC 50Ironworks on Keystone - Hendricks Commercial 105 Lofts at Pulliam Square - TWG Development 145 Fields at Franklin Road - Becovic 142 Penn Place - BWI 38Preserve at Willow Springs - Becovic 90 Quail Run II - Buckingham 132 Woodberry Ridge - Redwood Living 136 Totals - tax-credit 148Legacy Towns & Flats II - J.C. Hart 77 The Hamptons - Redwood Living 130 Templeton Ridge - Redwood Living 124White Lick Creek - Redwood Living 73 Flats at Switch - Loftus/Robinson & TWG 102 Forte - Von Deylen 64 2015 Expected Starts UnitsCentral State Mansion - Reverie Estates 67 Penn Street Tower - TWG Development 98 2131 North 47 Tax-Credit / T-E BondsNash at City Center - Pedcor 31 Redwood at Andover - Redwood Living 97 747 N. College - Milhaus 42 Illinois St Seniors - TWG Development 63Totals - market rate 2,931 The Woodlands - Redwood Living 93 Totals - market rate 3,460 Overlook at the Fairgrounds - BWI 49Totals - all 2013 3,183 Elmwod - Redwood Living 90 Totals - all 2015 3,602 Oxford Place - TWG Development 30
Beachside at Saxony - J.C. Hart 80 Totals - tax-credit 142Linden Square II - J.C. Hart 74Slate - Von Deylen 68Bailey Park of Brownsburg - Whitmore 66Millikan on Mass II - Insight / Flaherty & Collins 64Lawrence Senior - TWG Development 60Solana at the Crossing II - Milhaus Dev. 48Mezz on the Monon - AndersonBirkla 44Reflections at Bluestone II - Whitmore 44Circa II - Milhaus Development 30Totals - market rate 4,564Totals - all 2014 4,712
Indianapolis Metro Area Construction Starts - 2014
2014 done
2013 Starts Units 2014 Starts Units 2015 Expected Starts Units 2013 Starts UnitsMarket Rate Market Rate Market Rate Tax-Credit / T-E BondsFlats at Fishers Marketplace - Ackermann 306 Flats at 146 - Domo Development 368 Links on 96th - Herman & Kittle 444 Franklin Cove II - Pedcor 649 on Canal - IPA 304 Carmel Lakeside - J.C. Hart 283 Market Square Tower - Flaherty & Collins 300 Retreat on Washington - Pedcor 62Residence on Ronald Reagan - Samaritan 252 Villas at Watermark - Watermark Res. 266 The District - Edward Rose of Indiana 275 Clifton Square - BWI 57Depot at Nickel Plate - Flaherty & Collins 242 Arborwood on Mann Road - Herman & Kittle 260 CityWay II - Buckingham 270 Englewood Lofts - Englewood Development 24The Bridgewater - Justus 240 Seasons of Carmel - Barrett & Stokely & Pittman 256 The Vue - Herman & Kittle 240 Trotter's Pointe IV - Pedcor 24Circa - Milhaus Development 235 Casey Acres - Herman & Kittle 252 Harmony - J.C. Hart 240 Merici Village - TWG Dev. / MAH 21Watermark on Cumberland - Watermark Residential 220 Mentor & Muse - Milhaus Development 242 CRG Butler Site - CRG Residential 235 Totals - tax-credit 252Bella Vista - Edward Rose of Indiana 186 Southern Dunes - Sheehan 242 Olivia on Main - Keystone Development 204Stadium Flats - Core Redevelopment 144 La Cabreah - Domo Development 240 Keystone River Crossing site - Glick/PK 180 2014 Starts UnitsCumberland Pointe II - Barrett & Stokely 136 Double Creek Flats - Domo Development 240 Central Greens - TWG Development 180 Tax-Credit / T-E Bonds5700 Madison - Jackson Development 112 HighPointe on Meridian - J.C. Hart 235 Alexia - TWG Development 175 Lawrence Seniors - TWG Development 60800 Capital - TWG Development 111 Lockerbie North - TWG Development 215 Pointe at Block 400 - Flaherty & Collins 162 Fall Creek View - TWG Dev. / PIHDC 50Ironworks on Keystone - Hendricks Commercial 105 Lofts at Pulliam Square - TWG Development 145 Fields at Franklin Road - Becovic 142 Penn Place - BWI 38Preserve at Willow Springs - Becovic 90 Quail Run II - Buckingham 132 Woodberry Ridge - Redwood Living 136 Totals - tax-credit 148Legacy Towns & Flats II - J.C. Hart 77 The Hamptons - Redwood Living 130 Templeton Ridge - Redwood Living 124White Lick Creek - Redwood Living 73 Flats at Switch - Loftus/Robinson & TWG 102 Forte - Von Deylen 64 2015 Expected Starts UnitsCentral State Mansion - Reverie Estates 67 Penn Street Tower - TWG Development 98 2131 North 47 Tax-Credit / T-E BondsNash at City Center - Pedcor 31 Redwood at Andover - Redwood Living 97 747 N. College - Milhaus 42 Illinois St Seniors - TWG Development 63Totals - market rate 2,931 The Woodlands - Redwood Living 93 Totals - market rate 3,460 Overlook at the Fairgrounds - BWI 49Totals - all 2013 3,183 Elmwod - Redwood Living 90 Totals - all 2015 3,602 Oxford Place - TWG Development 30
Beachside at Saxony - J.C. Hart 80 Totals - tax-credit 142Linden Square II - J.C. Hart 74Slate - Von Deylen 68Bailey Park of Brownsburg - Whitmore 66Millikan on Mass II - Insight / Flaherty & Collins 64Lawrence Senior - TWG Development 60Solana at the Crossing II - Milhaus Dev. 48Mezz on the Monon - AndersonBirkla 44Reflections at Bluestone II - Whitmore 44Circa II - Milhaus Development 30Totals - market rate 4,564Totals - all 2014 4,712
Indianapolis Metro Area Construction Starts - 2014
2014 done
14 15Multihousing Investment Advisors
2014 marked a year of very high demand for investment in multifamily properties and an inadequate supply of properties available to purchase, creating an increase in prices. Nationally, 2014 cap rates for multifamily sales averaged 6.0%, down 20 basis points from 2013 according to Real Capital Markets.
Indianapolis followed the same trend, as 2014 average actual Class A and B (combined) cap rates declined to 6.2%, down from 6.5% in the previous year. Cap rates based on buyer forecasted net operating income decreased almost 100 basis points, dropping to 6.3% from 7.2% last year. This drop illustrates a willingness among buyers to accept a lower going-in yield since such risk adjusted yields are still better than alternative investments. Sale prices of Class B or better properties in the Indianapolis metro area showed a 5% increase over 2013 sales to reach a record average price per unit of $93,200.
The decrease in the inventory of properties for sale also resulted in fewer sales transactions in 2014 than in the recent past. The total number of multifamily units sold in 2014 is down 35% from 2013. There are several reasons why fewer properties hit the market this year. First, more developers and owners are comfortable holding their properties with floating rate loans in place based on a reduced fear of interest rate increases since such rates have been low and stable for so long. Other owners have taken advantage of readily available permanent financing. In addition, some “would-be” sellers have struggled to find a suitable replacement property to complete a 1031 exchange, and these owners have opted to simply hold on to their properties to avoid paying capital gains tax on sale. Finally, some owners are holding with the expectation of improved property performance resulting in higher NOI and value creation. This hold strategy has been strengthened by the fact that the majority of multifamily properties are performing quite well. By contrast, those owners who are sellers believe that long term rates will eventually rise and have determined that now is an optimal time to sell to take advantage of the tremendous demand for product.
As a continuation of what was seen in 2013, there have been very few distressed or lender owned properties marketed for sale as the recovery from the great recession has progressed. In the Indianapolis metro area, only about 10% of the sales in the first three quarters of 2014 involved lender-owned properties.
The most active buyers in Indiana have historically been private equity investors and syndicated groups of high net worth individuals. However, 2014 sales continued the return of institutional investors to Indiana. The term “institutional capital” has evolved to include Private REITS, Hedge Funds and Family Office investors. These institutional and quasi-institutional buyers are generally seeking assets with stabilized in-place yields. So far the buyers of value-add opportunities are still primarily entrepreneurial and private equity groups.
Apartment Sales TransactionsAll Indianapolis Metro Properties
4,6006,000
4,700
7,7007,200
10,400
16,800
9,8008,900
6,100
4,800
13,100
9,0009,200
5,900
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts
Units Sold Total Consideration (millions)
10Months
Source: Tikijian Associates
Average Sale Cap RatesIndianapolis Metro Area - Class “B” or better
8.4% 8.5%
8.0%7.7%
6.7%6.5%
6.0% 5.9%
6.6%
8.6%
6.7%
7.2%
6.6% 6.5%6.2%
9.2%
10.2%
8.9%8.6%
8.4%
7.6%
7.0% 6.9%
8.2%
9.6%
8.8%8.6%
7.2% 7.2%
6.3%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cap
Rat
e
Actual Cap Rate Forecast Cap Rate
10Months
Source: Tikijian Associates
Average Price per UnitClass B or better, Over 100 Units
Indianapolis Metro Area
$48,900$54,200 $53,000
$65,500
$58,500
$45,800
$40,600
$55,800
$44,900
$77,100
$88,600$93,200
$52 $51$53
$64
$64
$56
$41
$56$49
$77
$92$97
$30$35$40$45$50$55$60$65$70$75$80$85$90$95$100
$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000$55,000$60,000$65,000$70,000$75,000$80,000$85,000$90,000$95,000
$100,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pric
e pe
r Squ
are
Foot
Pric
e pe
r Uni
t
Price per Unit Price per Sq. Ft. 10Months
Source: Tikijian Associates
Sales Activity
Transaction Volume Distressed Sales vs. Non-Distressed Sales
Indy Metro Area (by total units)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tota
l Uni
ts
Distressed Non-DistressedSource: Tikijian Associates
15Please visit www.TAmultihousing.com for more information
Selected 2014 Indiana Apartment Sales
BluestoneLauth Property Group
208 UnitsGreenfield
WoodridgeShamrock Communities
576 UnitsIndianapolis
Prairie LakesJVM Realty
402 UnitsNoblesville
SolanaInland Real Estate
384 UnitsIndianapolis
Brooklyn PlaceMount Auburn Capital Group
204 UnitsEvansville
Knobs PointeBRG Realty Group
384 UnitsNew Albany
Port O CallJames Management Group
604 UnitsIndianapolis
The AvenueCampus Advantage
142 UnitsIndianapolis
Creekbay at Meridian WoodsMuesing Management
208 UnitsIndianapolis
Buckingham PortfolioVarious
682 Total UnitsKokomo, Jeffersonville,
Mishawaka & Evansville
Waterside at CastletonWilkinson Corporation
400 UnitsIndianapolis
Oak CrossingSteadfast
222 UnitsFort Wayne
Avery PArk Beech Grove
reGency cluB Ashton FArms
Tikijian Associates is a boutique brokerage firm specializing exclusively in the representation of owners of multihousing communities in Indiana and Kentucky. The company was formed in early 2005 by George Tikijian, one of Indiana’s most respected real estate brokers. Tikijian Associates was founded with the specific goal of offering the highest achievable level of client service in the evaluation, marketing and sale of apartment communities.
Tikijian Associates has established itself as a major presence in the brokering of Midwest multi-family properties. Through broad marketing efforts, Tikijian Associates has received national reception and recognition beyond expectations. This exposure is believed to be one of the key ingredients to success as local investors are being joined by those coming from the coasts and various national markets.
With over 80 years of combined experience in commercial real estate, Tikijian Associates’ greatest asset is its team of unparalleled, skilled and dedicated professionals. In addition, the firm is committed to the maintenance and improvement of its state-of-the-art information technology, graphic design, and web-based/social media capabilities. This combination of talent and technology places Tikijian Associates at the forefront of the multihousing brokerage industry.
Multihousing Investment Advisors
unparalleled. team. expertise. service.
www.TAmultihousing.com
Find us on:
Hannah Ott, CCIMSenior Managing [email protected]
Duke HardySenior Managing Director
Christine NealisMarketing Director
Kimberly FetzerManaging Director
George Tikijian III, CCIMSenior Managing Director
Colin BabbittAssociate
3755 E. 82nd St., Suite 265, Indianapolis, IN 46240 - P(317) 578-0088 - F(317) 570-3677