indiana economic outlook january 2015 michael j. hicks, ph.d. george & frances ball...
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INDIANA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKJanuary 2015
Michael J. Hicks, Ph.D.George & Frances Ball Distinguished Professor of Economics
UNITED STATES2015 Forecast
U.S. GDP Quarterly Growth
Note: GDP for 2014Q3 was recently revised to 3.9% from 3.6%. GDP for 2014Q4-2015Q4 is the author’s estimate.
U.S. Quarterly Forecasts
U.S. Forecast
Real GDP
Growth
Unempl.Rate
Unemployed
Workers(# persons)
Job Creation:
Avg Monthly Change(# jobs)
Job Creation: Qrtly
Change (# jobs)
2015Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar)
2.7% 5.9% 10,015,710
+93,871 +281,614
2015Q2 (Apr, May, Jun)
2.6% 5.9% 10,043,790
+107,444 +322,331
2015Q3 (Jul, Aug, Sep)
2.8% 5.8% 10,045,040
+117,650 +352,950
2015Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec)
2.9% 5.7% 10,039,260
+121,421 +364,263
U.S. Business CyclesLength of Decline and Growth Periods
U.S. Debt as a Share of GDP
INDIANA2015 Forecast
Indiana Quarterly Forecasts 2015
Indiana Forecast GDP Growth Personal Income Growth
2015Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar) 3.3% 3.4%
2015Q2 (Apr, May, Jun) 3.4% 3.3%
2015Q3 (Jul, Aug, Sep) 3.4% 3.3%
2015Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec) 3.4% 3.3%
Indiana Employment & Labor Force
Indiana Layoff Data
Indiana Construction Employment
State Industry Forecasts for 2015Industry Indiana
Mining 0.1%Construction 1.1%Durable goods mfg 3.6%Nondurable goods mfg 3.1%Retail 3.2%Utilities 2.1%Wholesale 2.7%Transportation 2.7%Health care 1.3%Information services 0.9%Finance, insurance, real estate
2.2%
Government 0.2%
Questions?
www.bsu.edu/cber