The World Bank Water Week

April 7, 2016

India’s Challenge of Groundwater Governance:Bracing up for the Coming Solar Pump Juggernaut

Tushaar ShahInternational Water Management Institute

At Independence, India inherited the world’s largest canal infrastructure.. But since the 1960’s, it has emerged as the world’s

largest groundwater irrigator

Power subsidies are the key driver. In 2015, 20 million electric tubewells used

170 billion kWh of power to draw 210 BCM of groundwater

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India: Number of Electric Pumps: 1970-2015

No. of electric pumps in irrigation use (100)

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India: Electricity Use in Groundwater Irrigation (m

kWh)

Tofal Electricity Use in Agriculture (m kWh)

2913.4

6435.76760.5

7545.56864.7

7651.47892.0

8725.5

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India: average KWH/pump/year

Power consumption/pump (kWh/year)

When political leaders introduced farm power

subsidies during the 1970’s to get farmers’ votes, they hardly realised the consequences to

follow 20 years later…

India’s Perverse Energy-

Groundwater Nexus

GW demand management, when successful, has

invariably implicated power supply interventions

• Andhra Pradesh Community-led GWG

experiment

• Changing rice planting calendar in Punjab

• Remotely metered farm power and TOD-based

power pricing for farmers in West Bengal

• Temporary, winter-season 110-day power

connections in Madhya Pradesh

• Power rationing and MAR in Gujarat

Figure 1 a Electricity Network Before Figure 1 b Electricity Network after

Modi’s Gujarat: Demand side management throughFeeder separation and farm-power rationing

Modi’s Gujarat: Community-driven decentralized MAR in

hard-rock aquifers

Meghal basin drainage netwrork Profusion of check dams built by people, with government support

Modi’s Gujarat is the only state in western India where groundwater levels are improving.. And agriculture is booming

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Gujarat

Number of electric tubewells

power consumption in agriculture (million kWh)

Average power use/tubewell (kWh/year)

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India

No. of electric pumps in irrigation use(100)

Average kWh/pump has been rising in India but falling in Gujarat

Comes along the solar irrigation pump.. To

transform the architecture of India’s

groundwater economy..

• PV cell costs falling faster than predicted: US 1500/kWp in 2012; US $ 800/kWp in 2016; US $ 350-400/kWp by 2022?

• Solar irrigation pump numbers in India growing faster than expected: <1000 during 1985-2012; 45,000 during 2012-2015; 4-5 million during 2016-2022?

• Solar pump size in use increasing faster than thought likely: 0.5-2 kWp until 2012; 5kWp standard today; 8.5 kWp in use in Bihar

• Non-subsidy solar pump market already a reality

Democratization of energy… grid-independence presents a

formidable groundwater governance challenge.

With the rise of solar irrigation pumps, India is at a déjà vu moment.. Energy subsidies casually introduced 40 years ago created unsustainable groundwater economy today.. Solar pumps mindlessly promoted today

will accelerate depletion like never before..

Solar insolation is high where

groundwater depletion is a crisis.

Potential for disruption by solar pump juggernaut

Grid power Solar power

~1200 kWh/kW/year ~1500-1800 kWh/kW/year

Half or more during nights

All day time

Frequent interruptions, voltage fluctuations

uninterrupted; predictably variable voltage

Subsidized marginal cost Zero marginal cost

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Dhundhi Solar COOP (54 kW): solar energy generated and used for

irrigation (kWh)

solar energy generated Solar energy used in irrigation (kWh)

How to brace up for the solar pump juggernaut

Current policy Desired Policy AuxiliaryPolicy

Solar Pump as green energy Solar Power as a

Remunerative Crop (SPaRC)

capital cost subsidy of 90%+

Subsidy tied to micro-irrigation and limited to 2-

3 kWp

Solar pumps owners use solar and grid power for pumping groundwater

Limit capital cost subsidy to US $ 500/kWp, and keep reducing

Solar pumps grid connected, net-metered with power

purchase guarantee at ~ US c 8-9/kWh

An incentive FiT of US c 11-12/kWh to solar farmers who surrender grid connection.

Solar farmer remains net buyer of grid power

Solar coops become net sellers of power to the grid

Solar farmers are dispersed and costly to reach

Clusters of solar farmers form a cooperative connected to the

grid at a single point.

Demarket Grid Power

Ban new grid power connections for tubewells

Increase night power supply

Give farmers right to reclaim surrendered grid

connections up to 2 years

Promote solar federations as IPPs

Subsidize investment in micro-grids.

India’s ambitious solar target: 100 GW by 2022

To be achieved mostly through MW scale greenfield projects in

remote sites.

But SPaRC offers a whole new alternative path to this target.

Solarising 10 million 10 kW grid-connected solar irrigation pumps give 100 GW solar capacity targeted by 2022

150 billion kWh/year of green power generated

Solar farmer earns US $ 1000/year net by selling 40% of solar power to

the grid

DISCOMs save US $ 10 billion/year in power subsidies

Groundwater use in irrigation drops

from 240 BCM to 190-200 BCM/year

CO2 emissions from groundwater pumping drops by 110 mmt/year

Gains from SPaRC

Taking tubewells off the grid power

releases 30% of grid capacity

150 billion kWh/year of green power generated

Solar farmer earns US $ 1000/year net by selling 40% of solar power to

the grid

DISCOMs save US $ 10 billion/year in power subsidies

Groundwater use in irrigation drops

from 240 BCM to 190-200 BCM/year

CO2 emissions from groundwater pumping drops by 110 mmt/year

Gains from SPaRC

Taking tubewells off the grid power

releases 30% of grid capacity

100 GW solar capacity through MW-scale solar projects gives

India only a green energy mix but little else.

IWMI’s Pilot Project onDhundhi Village Solar Power Producers’ Cooperative

Services offered:

1. Absorb transaction costs of pooling surplus power

2. Assist member farmers in maximizing power sales

3. Add solar capacity over time

Thank You…IWMI-Tata Water Policy Program

Five Problems,

One Solution..