india's urban transformation the way forward symbiosis 4 march 2013
DESCRIPTION
Aromar Revi's Annual day lecture to the Symbiosis School of Economics, PuneTRANSCRIPT
India’s Urban Transformation:
The Way Forwardiihs
Symbiosis, Pune 4th March 2013
Aromar [email protected] ; @AromarRevi
www.iihs.co.in
The challenge of contemporary Indian cities: integration of the pre-colonial, colonial, ‘modern’ & informal
Yamuna Pushta: c. 2003
Yamuna Pushta demolitions: Feb-May 2004
20112004
Yamuna Pushta Forced Evictions: Feb – May 2004
Dupont, 2011
A 30+ year process of state-led eviction, demolition and exclusion
Delhi: Demolished Settlements & Resettlement Colonies (1990-2008)
Dupont, 2011
Systematic processes of eviction and regularisation define Delhi’s land ‘market’
Pushta
Our future hinges on
the state of Indian
cities
Environmental Sustainability
Social Transformation
Unified & Robust Polity
Inclusive Economic Growth
Reduced Poverty and Inequality
Urban Development: catalysing five national outcomes by the 2030s
A long view of History
Relative National Share of Global Economic Output (1500 to 2050ACE)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
% S
hare
of
Glo
bal
Ou
tpu
t
Time
US China India UK Japan Russia
India
ChinaUS
UKRussia
Japan
Asia returns to centre of the global economy after a gap of 250 years
Urbanisation: a key growth & economic development driver
New Geographies = New 21st century Histories
19- mid 20th century Late 20th century
Early- mid 21st century
16-18th century
Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds
21st century Population growth needs 1.5+ worlds
Ending poverty at present throughput ~2.0 worlds
Availableonly One
World
The Challenge of the 21st century Sustainability Transition
The Sustainability traverse will be largely played out in Chinese & Indian cities
Himalayan Glacial melt (1921-2009)
‘Sustainable
Development’
Can China traverse the environmental Kuznets curve; Germany & USA converge without serious Human Development decline India ‘tunnel through’;
or will there be serious international ‘resource’ conflict?
Future History - Sustainability Transitions: 2005
China’s urbanisation: 1992-2012
Deng’s tour of the Southern provinces: Feb 1992
China’s urbanisation: the view from Space..
China: Feb 1992
China: Feb 2000
China: Feb 2008
Why is China’s urbanisation important?
1. It is the largest urbanisation in human history: the addition of ~300 million people to China’s urban population in 20 years
2. This propelled the largest economic growth surge in history
India’s urbanisation: the view across time..
Maurya Gupta Mughal British
Major Powers of the Indian Subcontinent
(500 BCE to 2010 ACE)
Hoysala Tuluva
India Urban Dynamics: 1951-2031
1951
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
India
W. Pakistan
E. Pakistan
Nepal
Tibet
India 1951
• Only 5 cities with a population > 1m and 41 with > 0.1m
• Much of India lived in 0.56 m villages
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ettl
emen
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(5.7)
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
1961
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ettl
emen
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(6.9)
1971
Mumbai
(5.8)
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ettl
emen
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(9)
Delhi
(5.6)
1981
Mumbai
(8.6)
Large Urban Settlement
Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ettl
emen
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(10.9)
Delhi
(8.2)
Chennai
(5.3)
1991
Mumbai
(12.3)
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ettl
emen
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(13.1)
Delhi
(12.4)
Chennai
(6.6)
Bangalore
(5.6)
Hyderabad
(5.4)
2001
Mumbai
(16.1)
Large Urban Settlement
Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ettl
emen
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(15.5)
Delhi
(16.9)
Chennai
(7.5)
Bangalore
(7.2)
Hyderabad
(6.7)
Ahmedabad
(5.7)
Pune
(5.0)
2011
Mumbai
(20)
Large Urban Settlement
Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
3 cities with a
population > 10 m
and 53 with > 1m
833 m live in 0.64 m
villages
377 m live in ~ 8,000
urban centres
India 2011
• 3 cities with a population > 10 m and
• 53 cities with > 1m
• 833 m live in 0.64 m villages
• 377 m live in ~ 8,000 urban centres
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ettl
emen
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Mumbai
(28.6)
Kolkata
(22.3)
Delhi
(24.4)
Chennai
(11.1)
Bangalore
(10.6)
Hyderabad
(9.9)
Ahmedabad
(8.5)
Pune
(7.4)
Surat
(6.3)
Kanpur
(5.1)
2031
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971-2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
India 2031
• 6 cities with a population > 10 m and > 70 with > 1m
• How many Indians will live in medium & small towns?
• The bridge between rural & urban India
India’s urbanisation: the view from Space..
Feb 1992
Feb 2008
India: 13 Nov 2012
Spatial Concentration of Economic Activity: 2005
District agricultural output distribution: 2005
District Manufacturing output distribution: 2005
Top 100 Cities : 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50
Output
Population
Land
Proportion of all-India
Land
Population
Output
0.24%
16%
43%
26
5m
11
2m
20
0m
53
7m
22%17%
13%10%
7% 5%3%
21%
19%
18%
15%
12%
10%
8%
20%
21%
21%
20%
19%
18%
17%
17%
18%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
5%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
17%
3%1%
1%
1%
1%1%
1%
7%8%
8%
8%
8%8%
9%
1%2%
4%6%
7%8%
9%
3%3%
3% 3%4%
5%6%
1% 3% 4%2%
2% 3%
3% 4% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
ll In
dia
Po
pu
lati
on
(%
)
Distribution of India’s Population by Settlement Size : 1951-2011
Class I Cities
Other Urban Centres
Large Villages
Medium and Small Villages
Urban Growth & Sprawl: 1991-2011
1992
Delhi : 1992
8.7 million
8.7 million
1992
2000
Delhi : 2000
8.7 million
13.7 million
13.7 million
1992
2000
2011
Delhi : 2011
8.7 million
13.7 million
16.3 million
16.3 million
Bangalore : 1992
1992
3.4 million
3.4 million
Bangalore : 2001
1992
2001
3.4 million
5.7 million
5.7 million
Bangalore : 2009
1992
2001
2009
3.4 million
5.7 million
8.5 million
8.5 million
Chandigarh : 1989
1989
0.6 million
0.6 million
Chandigarh : 2000
1989
0.6 million
2000
0.8 million
0.8 million
Chandigarh : 2011
1989
0.6 million
2000
0.8 million
2011
1.0 million
1.0 million
Migration Trends: 1961-2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-2001 2001-2011
Urb
an P
op
ula
tio
n G
row
th (
in m
illio
n)
Components of Urban Population Growth : 1961 – 2011*
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-2001 2001-2011
Urb
an P
op
ula
tio
n G
row
th (
in m
illio
n)
Net Rural to Urban migration
Expansion in urban area / agglomeration
New towns less declassified towns
Natural Growth
Estimated Major Inter-State Migration Streams : 2001-2011
Estimated Top 50% Migration Streams into Urban Areas: 2001-2011
The national economic context: 1970-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-10 (estimate)
Rs
Lakh
Cro
re
Urban
Rural
India Rural: Urban GDP share (1970-2009)
Early economic reforms
Phase I economic reforms
Phase II economic reforms
All amounts in constant 2009-10 prices.Source: National Accounts Statistics
Post-liberalisation boom in India’s urban economy, esp. In the Phase II period
India Rural: Urban GDP fraction (1970-2009)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-10 (estimate)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Tota
l
Urban
Rural
Phase I economic reforms
Phase II economic reforms
Early economic reforms
All amounts in constant 2009-10 prices.Source: National Accounts Statistics
Above half of India’s GDP comes from ~8,000 urban areas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Rs
Lakh
Cro
re
Other Services
Public Admn & Defence
Real Estate & Business Services
Banking & Finance
Transport, Storage & Communications
Hotels & Restaurants
Trade
Construction
Electricity, Gas, Water
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture
India: Urban sectoral GDP growth (1970-2009)
All amounts in constant 2009-10 prices.Source: National Accounts Statistics
Manufacturing, trade, transport, banking and real estate primary drivers of the urban economy
India: Urban sectoral GDP structure (1970-2009)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pe
rce
nt
of
Tota
l Other Services
Public Admn & Defence
Real Estate & Business Services
Banking & Finance
Transport, Storage & Communications
Hotels & Restaurants
Trade
Construction
Electricity, Gas, Water
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture
All amounts in constant 2009-10 prices.Source: National Accounts Statistics
Decline in manufacturing , construction and trade shares. Growth in transport, banking & real estate
India: Inclusive Wealth trends (1990-2008)
India’s Inclusive Wealth base is about 4 times its GDP.
Of this, the largest component is ‘human capital’
Dasgupta et. al, 2012
India’s Coming transition (2011-2031)
• India will add at least 300 million new people to its cities in the
next 30 years
• This is on top of the current urban population of ~300 million, of
whom over 70 million are poor
• In 2031, three of the ten largest megacities in the world will be in
India: Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata
• Over 75 other cities will have a population of over 1 million
• This will be the second largest urbanisation in human history
creating huge market opportunities and development challenges
• The only option to avoid complete systemic urban breakdown is
the simultaneous transformation of India’s cities and its villages
• A wide range of technical, institutional and social innovations will
be required to enable this
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Pe
rce
nt
of
Tota
lIndia: Urban Workforce distribution (2004-05)
Source: Sachar Committee Report, 2006
Two-thirds of the urban employment is in manufacturing, trade & other services.
India: GDP & Employment structure (2009)
The urban informal sector with a quarter of the workers produces roughly a quarter of the GDP. The urban formal sector with 5 percent of the workers produces a similar share of the GDP.
Source: NCEUS, 2009; Kannan & Raveendran (2009)
Urban Formal :
5%
Urban Informal :
25%
Rural : 70%
Urban Formal : 25%
Urban Informal :
26%
Rural : 45%
India: Urban Unorganized Sector GDP structure (1980-2009)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pe
rce
nt
of
Tota
l
Other Services
Real Estate & Business Services
Banking & Finance
Transport, Storage & Communications
Hotels & Restaurants
Trade
Construction
Manufacturing
Agriculture
All amounts in constant 2009-10 prices.Source: National Accounts Statistics
Share of transport and real estate has grown, construction and trade remained steady and
manufacturing contributors to urban unorganised sector output declined
India: Urban GDP composition (2009-10)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Rs
Lakh
Cro
re
Organized
Unorganized
Urban India has a highly differentiated structure of economic output and mix of informal sector activity – which has been poorly addressed in
urban development
0
1,00,000
2,00,000
3,00,000
4,00,000
5,00,000
6,00,000
Rs
pe
r w
ork
er
Aggregate GVA per worker Estimated GVA per worker in unorganized sector
India: Informal & Formal Worker productivity (GVA per worker 2004-05)
Labour productivity of some informal sector activities are comparable with the formal sector: trade, construction, real estate, personal
services
Urban Poverty and Inequality
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of urban poor Share of slum population
Pe
rce
nta
ge S
har
e
Large Cities (>1million)
Small and Medium Cities
City-size wise Urban Poor and Slums
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Rural
Caste-wise Wealth Distribution in Rural India (2002)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Rural
ST
SC
OBC
FC
NH
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Urban
Caste-wise Wealth Distribution in Urban India (2002)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Rural
ST
SC
OBC
FC
NH
Managing India’s Urban Future2011-2031
India’s Urban Future (2011-2031)
• India will add at least 300 million new people to its cities in 30 years
• This is on top of the current urban population of ~300 million, of
whom over 70 million are poor
• In 2031, three of the ten largest megacities in the world will be in
India: Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata
• Over 70 other cities will have a population of over 1 million
• This will be the second largest urbanisation in human history creating
huge market opportunities and development challenges
• The only option to avoid complete urban breakdown is the
simultaneous transformation of India’s cities and its villages
• The key to this the education of a new generation of changemakers
and entrepreneurs and building the capacities and motivation of
current working professionals
XI Plan Sectoral Investment Allocations (2007-12)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
(Rs
Tho
usa
nd
Cro
res)
> 1
0 t
imes
India: the opportunity of ten simultaneous Transitions
1. Demographic transition: population stabilisation & aging
2. Health transition: infectious + lifestyle disease burden
3. Education transition: elementary secondary tertiary
4. Energy transition: oil + coal gas + renewables
5. Environmental transition: ‘brown’ + ‘grey’ + ‘green’ agendas
6. Information transition: post phone cell phone + www
7. Livelihoods transition: agrarian green + knowledge jobs
8. Economic transition: primary + secondary tertiary-led
9. Political transition: decentralised, youth and urban
10. Urban transition: rural ‘urban’
India’s Urban Development opportunity:
stylised facts & ‘speculation’
Indicator Unit 2012 2030 2040
GDP/cap (2010 prices) Lakh Rs/capita ~0.75 ~ 2.5 ~ 4.5
GDP (@ ~7% growth)crore crores 1 3.5 6.5
Urban share % 55% 70% 80%
Urban GDP lakh crores 55 231 520
∆ Urban GDP lakh crores/yr ~9 ~ 29
Urban Informal lakh crores 26 115 260
Life Expectancy years 68 75 80+
HDI 0.55 0.75 0.9
Consumption Gini 0.38 0.33 ? 0.3 ?
Carbon footprint t C/capita 1.5 2.5 ? ~ 1.5 ?
Who manages Urban India?Top Management
• MPs & MLAs 5,300
• Higher Judiciary 650
• IAS & IPS 8,200
• CXOs (top 500 corporates) ~ 5,000
• NGO leadership ~ 1,750
Total 20,900
% educated & trained in urban practice < 5%
Middle Management
• Senior Municipal officials ~ 4,000
• Senior Engineers ~ 8,000
• Urban Planners ~ 2,000
Total ~ 14,000
% educated & trained in urban practice < 20%