Indonesia Economic Update

& ICT Overview

Prof. Firmanzah.,PhD

Disajikan pada

Indonesia Broadband Economy Forum

Kemenko Perekonomian RI dan KADIN

21 September 2011

Ekonomi Dunia

Laju pertumbuhan > 5%

Peringkat 18 negara

dengan PDB

terbesar di dunia th

2010…

Th 2025????

INDONESIA

Jumlah Penduduk 2010 236.7 juta jiwa

PDB 2010 6.422 triliun US $ 706 Milyar =

60-65% usia dewasa (15-60)

Pertumbuhan PDB 2010 6,1 %

Cadangan devisa per Juli 2011 US $ 122,7 milyar

Angka kemiskinan Maret 2011 12,49 % (30,02 juta jiwa)

PDB per kapita 2010 US $ 3.000

Growth PDB

by sector 2010

Pengangkutan & komunikasi

(13,5 %) perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran

(8,7 %)

konstruksi

(7,0 %)

Jasa-jasa

(6,0 %)

keuangan, real estat, dan jasa perusahaan

(5,7%)

Listrik, gas, air bersih

(5,3%)

Manufaktur

(4,5%)

Pertambangan

(3,5%)

Pertanian

(2,9%)

Tenaga kerja

Per sektor 2010

Pertanian

(38,3 %) perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran

(20,8 %)

Jasa-jasa

(14,0 %)

Manufaktur

(12,8 %)

Pengangkutan&Komunikasi

(5,2%)

Konstruksi

(5,1%)

Keuangan,realestate & jasa lainnua

(1,6%)

Pertambangan

(1,1%)

Listrik, gas,air bersih

(0,22%)

Peringkat Daya Saing Global 2009 – 2010 – 2011 54 – 44 - 46

Indikator Makro 2006-2012

5.56.3 6

4.6

6.1 6.5 6.7

0

2

4

6

8

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Pertumbuhan

Ekonomi 6.6 6.6

11.1

2.8

7

5.65 5.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Inflasi

850

900

950

1000

0204060

80100120

lifting

harga minyak

dunia

lifting 959 899931 944954 945950

harga minyak

dunia

64 70 97 62 79 95 90

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Kurs

9164 9140

9691

10408

90878700 8800

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Diolah dari Kemneterian Keuangan, 2011

2006-2010 LKPP; 2011 APBN-P; 2012 RAPBN

Percentage Distribution of GDP by Expenditure

Source: World Bank and BPS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

*

% GDP

Household final consumption

Exports of goods &services

Imports of goods &services

Gross fixed capital formation

General governmentfinal consumption

56,6%

Konsumsi RT

8,9%

Konsumsi Pemerintah

23,2 %

Ekspor

22,6 %

Impor (-)

32,5%

Pembentukan modal

tetap bruto

Th 2010

Inventory (0,8%), diskrepansi staistik (0,6%)

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

5.3

-11.4

3.9

6.0

3.3

5.9

5.34.6

4.6 4.6 4.7

3.7

2.1

4.5

4.7

-13.1

0.8

4.9

3.84.3

4.95.6 5.6

5.5

6.3 6.0

4.5

6.1

-14

-13

-12

-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

pertumbuhan ekonomi pertumbuhan industri

Data BPS diolah

Pertumbuhan ekonomi-pertumbuhan industri 1997-2010

Pertumbuhan periode 1986-

1991, pertumbuhan industri >

10%, 1992-1996 pertumbuhan

industri di angka 9,6%-11,6%

Sumber : Bappenas

Global ICT Development 2000-2010

Lower than thailand,

south africa

World-Internet users

Broadband penetration - World

ICT Development Index

Indonesia Connectivity Scorecard

Digital Economy Ranking 2010

Negara Ranking

2009

Ranking

2010

Overall

score

Connectivi

ty

Business

environm

ent

Social-

cultural

environn

ment

Legal

environm

ent

Governme

nt policy

& vision

Consumer &

Business adoption

Singapore 7 8 8,22 7,65 8,40 7,27 9,00 9,18 8,28

Malaysia 38 36 5,93 4,35 7,36 5,47 6,88 6,65 5,80

Thailand 49 49 4,86 3,20 6,83 4,50 6,35 5,60 4,18

Philipina 54 54 4,47 2,60 6,35 4,27 4,85 5,20 4,38

Vietnam 64 62 3,87 3,20 5,70 3,60 4,65 4,60 2,71

Indonesia 65 65 3,60 2,60 6,04 3,60 4,20 3,88 2,55

Sumber : The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2010

Technology Readiness, GCI-WEF

Tech.Readiness

Avail.of latest tech

Firm-level tech-

absorption

FDI & tech.transf

er

Internet users

Broadband internet

subscribers

Internet bandwith

Singapore 11 20 15 3 16 22 14

Malaysia 40 35 30 16 39 62 41

Vietnam 65 102 60 31 83 77 82

Thailand 68 64 66 34 86 88 75

Indonesia 91 77 65 54 107 99 102

Philipina 95 62 59 88 112 84 101

Tech.Readiness

Avail.of latest tech

Firm-level tech-

absorption

FDI & tech.transf

er

Internet users

Broadband internet

subscribers

Internet bandwith

Singapore 10 17 10 3 25 21 7

Malaysia 44 35 28 12 40 62 60

Vietnam 79 133 88 62 84 76 88

Thailand 84 82 75 32 93 77 83

Indonesia 96 74 54 64 117 103 108

Philipina 83 62 52 66 88 90 76

2

0

1

0

2

0

1

1

Yg menarik

Indonesia

pengguna

facebook

terbesar kedua

setelah USA

Penetrasi TIK

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Tahun

Pe

ng

gu

na

Year PSTN WLL GSM 3G NB BB i-TV

Densitas TIK

0%

50%

100%

150%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

TahunP

en

gg

un

a

PSTN per HH WLL per HH GSM per Pop 3G per Pop

NB per HH BB per HH i-TV per HH

Source: Kemkominfo & Worldbank

PENETRASI & DENSITAS TIK

Penetrasi PSTN+WLL dan Internet sektor Residensial

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Tahun

Pe

ne

tra

si

PSTN+WLL GSM 3G NB BB

Source: Kemkominfo & Worldbank

PENETRASI & DENSITAS TIK

Broadband & Society

Midleton, 2007

Broadband & Competitiveness

Broadband

Administration cost

Transaction cost

Reduce

Production cost

Productivity

Broadband & Competitiveness

• Broadband and economy impact

Broadband

Communication

Innovation

New company

Labor creation

Purchasing Power

Affordability

Broadband and GDP growth

• Previous research

Katz et al (2009)

2000-2006 in Germany

Koutroumpis (2009)

2002-2007 for

22 OECD countries

Czernich et al.(2009)

1996-2007 for OECD countries

Qiang et al.(2009)

119 countries

An increase in of

broadband penetration

between 1% - 10%

contributes in an increase

GDP growth between

0,0025% - 1,5 %

Broadband penetration and

Employment growth

• Previous research

Lehr et al.(2005)

1998-2002 for ZIP codes

Crandall et al.(2007)

For 48 states

Shideler et al. (2007)

Thompson et al. (2008)

2000-2006 for 48 states

An increase in of

broadband penetration

contributes in an

increases employment

growth varies by

industry

Studies of the Employment Impact

of Broadband

• First impact: Jobs created in order to deploy the infrastructure (e.g. construction), and

• Second impact: Employment generated as a result of network externalities on other sectors of the economy. The results of the research to date in these two areas will be reviewed in turn.

Katz, (2009)

Conceptual view of comparative

broadband regional effects

Katz, 2009

Others….

• OECD (2008) broadband impact on productivity, SME’s, quality of life, consumer surplus

• Prof. Raul L. Katz and Javier G. Avila (2009) broadband impacts on economic performance (GDP growth and employment growth)

• Fornefeld et.al (2008) broadband impact on growth and productivity

• Crandall (2008) broadband deployment contributes in an increases of growth, jobs and investment

• Hagén et.al (2008) Broadband improve firm productivity

• Gillett et.al (2005) broadband access does enhance economic growth and performance

Broadband impact on the economy:

Summary from previous research

Katz (2009)

Presentation

Prof.Firmanzah, Ph.D

Dean

Faculty of Economics and Business

University of Indonesia

2011