indonesia logistics industry · indonesia logistics industry the way forward presented by: gopal r...
TRANSCRIPT
Indonesia Logistics Industry
The Way Forward
Presented by:
Gopal RGlobal Vice PresidentTransportation & Logistics PracticeJune 11, 2014
Growth of GDP and Service Segment, 2009 - 2014
Growth of Service Segment, 2009- 2014
Years
Gro
wth
(%)
Gro
wth
(%)
YearsSource: Indonesian Statistical Agency, Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
• GDP Growth between 5.7 to 6%
in 2014
• Services sector has been
growing at 10 percent during the
past years
• Service sector is estimated to
contribute 36.9 percent of GDP
• The trade sectors remains the
driver for the growth in service
sector
Economic Growth and Logistics Market
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(e) 2014(f)
Nominal GDP Services Real GDP
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(e) 2014(f)Services Transportation, storage and courier
Source: Indonesian Statistical Agency, Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
Agriculture. forestry &
fishing15.0%
Mining & quarrying
10.4% Manufacturing23.8%
Construction10.3%
Transportation & storage
3.6%
Communication3.3%
Other Services 33.6%
Indonesia GDP by Key Sectorsin 2013
Railways Transport
0.86%
Road Transport53.09%
Sea Transport
6.84%
River, Lake and
Ferry Transport
3.05%
Air Transport21.65%
Services Allied to
Transport14.51%
Contribution to GDP
Transportation makes up 85.6 percent of the total transportation, storage and courier market
Indonesian Transportation and Storage Segment Distribution in 2013
(IDR 328.8 trillion)
Potential market for LSPsin Indonesia
Transportation, storage and
courier(IDR 328.8
trillion)
Logistics Expenditurr is hidden in:
Tran
spor
tatio
n &
Log
istic
s M
arke
t20
13M
arke
t Va
lue
2013
IDR 328.8 trillion IDR 1,254.5trillion
Source: Indonesian Statistical Agency, analysis by Frost & Sullivan
Other services(IDR 290.5
trillion)
Mining & quarrying(IDR 134.6 trillion)
Manufacturing(IDR 306.6
trillion)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing(IDR 193.2
trillion)
Construction(IDR 133.2 trillion)
Trade(IDR 154.2
trillion)
Communication(IDR 42.2
trillion)
IDR 1,583.3 trillion
Logistics Market Potential
Source: Indonesian Statistical Agency, Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
Transportation and Logistics Market Size
839 770876
1,0141,140
1,255
171 182 212 236 287 329
1,010 9511,087
1,2491,427
1,583
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(e)
Hidden Logistics Cost Transport, storage and courier T&L Market Size
Growth (%)(5.8) 14.3 13.4 14.2 14.5IDR Trillion
Transportation & Logistics market in Indonesia has grown by 14.9 percent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between 2008 to 2013
Transportion & Logistics Market Projection ( 2013-2018)
Growth in private consumption that increase trade volume and value , thus favoring freightdistribution
Growth in International trade stimulate regional integration, removal of trade barriers, coupled withthe rise in containerization levels
A rise in the middle class and disposable income drive up the demand for goods
Interconnectedness of economic development and good infrastructure development drivedemand for goods to be transported in connected region or province
Key Market Drivers and Restraints
Drivers
Restraints
Higher fuel cost and increasing labor wages impact service providers through higher transportationcost and wages
Logistics infrastructure hamper the distribution time for cargo distribution
Source: Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
Source: Consolidated, Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
776.0845.3 891.5
943.11,000.6 1,043.7
18.9 19.1 20.4 23.6 26.8 29.00.89 0.83 0.87 0.97 1.16 1.340
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(e) 2014(f)
Sea freight Rail freight Air freight
Freight Movement in Indonesia (2009 – 2014)
Note:e : estimatedf : forecasted
• Growth in cargo volumes• Trade and domestic consumption to drive future volumes
Volume(m ton)
Freight Development in Indonesia
11.00
16.21
24.1021.50 22.50
25.88
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (f)
Total Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Realization, 2009 - 2014
Bn USD
• FDI is set to grow around 15%
• Inflows focussed on automotive,
pharmaceutical and mining industry
• FDI in transportation, warehouse and
storage sectors is around 1.1 % of
FDI in 2013
• 20.7 % is into mining sector.
• Sustainable trade growth over years
• Potential for positive trade balance with exports likely to gain
Economic TrendPositive outlook on capital inflows and trade
Source: Central Statistics Beuarau, Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
213.3293.4
380.9 382.1 369.2 387.66
050
100150200250300350400450
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(f)
Total Indonesia External Trade Value, 2009 - 2014Bn USD
Source: ASEAN Secretariat, Analysis by Frost & Sullivan
Countries/Year 2010 2011 2016 Average 2003-2007
Average 2012- 2016
Indonesia 6.10 6.30 6.90 5.50 6.60
Malaysia 7.20 4.60 5.60 6.00 5.30
Philipines 7.30 4.50 5.10 5.70 4.90
Singapore 14.50 5.60 4.80 7.50 4.60
Thailand 7.80 2.50 4.90 5.60 4.50
Vietnam 6.80 5.90 6.70 8.10 6.30
Average of 6 Countries 7.60 5.00 5.90 6.10 5.60
Indonesia
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Cambodia
Vietnam
Brunei
Philippines
Laos
Myanmar
Real GDP Growth ( %)
Growing Economies…
ASEAN offers a big opportunity - Region’s significance on efficient logistics
Road map of Indonesian Logistics Industry Blue Print
2014 2015 2020 2025
Synchronization, coordination and interconnection with the ASEAN
logistics networks
Creation of ASEAN Economic
Community
Strengthening capacity of LSPs, Integrate National Logistics & Supply
Chain
Indonesian Logistics will be connected to the global logistics
network.
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
• 2014-2015 Infrastructure development among ASEAN countries are expanded to support the transportation & logistics service in the region
• 2015-2020ASEAN Logistics Network Integration
• 2020-2025Integrated Global Logistics Network. Indonesia will be connected to the regional (ASEAN) and global logistics systems via InternationalHub Ports
Location Advantage…
Indonesia
Strategically located along key shipping routes
Source: Frost & Sullivan Anlaysis
Major Shipping Lane
1. Coordination and cooperation among all relevant institutional agencies to facilitate transportation between neighboring countries in ASEAN
2. Enhance transport security and safety in the regional Transportation and Logistics networks
3. Development of approaches and mechanisms to strengthen ASEAN’s role as “hub” in the East Asia integration
Well-connected with ASEAN
logistics Network
Domestic Logistics Network
1. Satisfactory logistics service offerings2. Growing technology implementation in
logistics operations3. Infrastructure and connectivity issues4. Distribution point to South East Asia from
shipping stand point
Moving Forward…
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Thank You
13