indonesia‟s role in global climate change mitigation · forests and fire • conserving forests...
TRANSCRIPT
Indonesia Update 2011
Indonesia‟s role
in global climate change mitigation
Frank JotzoCentre for Climate Economics and Policy (ccep.anu.edu.au)
Crawford School of Economics and Government
Australian National University
Source: Steffen “The critical decade”
De-carbonizing the world economy
Source: Australian Treasury (2011)
Copenhagen Accord / Cancun Agreements
Indonesia on the global stage for climate change
UN, G20, bilateral
The top greenhouse gas emitters
Data: WRI CAIT 8.0 database
Indonesia illustrative greenhouse gas
emissions trajectories
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fossil fuel emissions
Mt CO2/yr
Forestry and peat emissions
2 tons per person
business-as-usual?
Indonesia’s emissions target
26% reduction below business-as-usual at 2020, unilaterally
…up to 41% reduction with international assistance
(compared to what „business as usual‟ baseline?)
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Deforestation, peat, land management
Palm oil conversion overwhelming …but:
• Protecting peatlands
• Establishing plantations
on degraded lands
• Increasing yields
• Better management of
forests and fire
• Conserving forests
(biodiversity,
local environmental services)
Data: FAOstat
Sustainable land use
Carbon emissions
Managing fire
(peatlands, haze)
Local dev’tand
livelihoods
Central govt– local govt
relations
Palm oil productivity
Using degraded land not forest
Protecting watersheds, biodiversity
Incentives
Institutions
Practice
Policy
RAN-GRK National Action Plan for Greenhouse
Gas Emissions Reductions
• government initiated and financed programs
• mostly for forests/land
Land conversion moratorium
• A compromise, but sends a signal
Norway $1b promise
• Projects by AusAID and others
REDD+ agency
Energy
Energy efficiency; geothermal, hydro, gas
Policies, institutions? Investment?
A carbon tax could increase growth,
and reduce poverty
Source: Indonesia Ministry of Finance Green Paper on climate change, 2009
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“7 / 26”
Green Growth vs Brown Growth
“pro-poor, pro-growth,
pro-jobs and pro-environment”
Political economy and competition
between institutions
BappenasPresident‟s
office
Ministry of Environment
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Forestry
Ministry of Energy
Local governments
Industry
NGOs
UN, G20
Donors
Will anything actually be done?
What role for aid?
Fast-track climate finance
• global $10b per year to developing countries, 2010-12
Capacity building
• central and local governments, civil society
Demonstration projects
• need to take risks
What role for markets?
Indonesia‟s potential supply: (say) 15% of emissions
300 million tons @ $25 = $ 7.5 billion/year
• Demand: Australia emissions gap >50 million tons @2020?
• Japan, Korea, California, NZ….
Needed:
emissions monitoring
()credible baseline at national (or provincial / sectoral) level
? effective policy instruments and institutions
? payment distribution to local level, development programs
Investment in emissions reductions:
a ‘club’ of nations with compatible interests?
An illustrative business as usual scenario
Emissions data: Indonesia SNC; projections: author‟s assumptions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2005 2010 BAU
2015 BAU
2020 BAU
2020 target
Peat Fire
LUCF
Waste
Agiculture
Industry
Energy
-26%
-41%