Industrial Ecology,

Resource Decoupling, and

the “Master Equation”Thomas E. Graedel

Yale University

Center for Industrial EcologyYale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

Global Zinc Use, 1700-2000

Global per Capita Metals Use in the 20th Century

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

1000.0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Min

e Pr

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tion

Per C

apita

Rel

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e to

190

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Cr

Ni

CuWZnFe

AuPbAg

Sn

Histories of Australian Ore Grades, 1845-2007 Source: G.M. Mudd, Sustainability of Mining in Australia, Research Report No. RR5, Monash Univ.,

2007.

Is this a recipe for trouble?

Defining Decoupling

 

economic activity (GDP)

resource use

resource use

TIME

relative decoupling

absolute decoupling

050

100150200250300350

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

thou

sand

yen

/met

ric to

nJapanese Resource Decoupling

Overall Environmental/Sustainability Impact =

Pop. x GDP x resource use x envt./sust. impactperson GDP unit of resource use

The “Master Equation”

Source: www.faculty.fairfield.edu/.../Oct16/Part4.html

Copper Stock per capita

137 kg Cu 35 kg Cu

New Haven Beijing

Copper Stock and Copper Need

137 kg Cu 137 kg Cu

New Haven Beijing

Global need in 2040

1.3 Pg Cu

Limits to Materials: Copper Stock and Copper Supply

137 kg Cu 137 kg Cu

New Haven Beijing

Global need in 2040 Global resource

1.3 Pg Cu 1.6 Pg Cu

http://www.allaboardwashington.org/cms/images/uploads/Trains_Crop2.jpg

A Typical Water Treatment System

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://civil.engr.siu.edu/Ray_H2ODsn/images/WTPAerial1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://civil.engr.siu.edu/Ray_H2ODsn/Default.asp&usg=__WrYw0oEkKBTB3yzEETk4P87ga3w=&h=438&w=500&sz=97&hl=en&start=5&tbnid=fsIDd54infh_bM:&tbnh=114&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dwater%2Btreatment%2Bplant%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DX

Copper Use as a Function of Wealth

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0G D P p e r c a p ita , P P P (c u rre n t in te rn a t io n a l $ )

0

4

8

1 2

Cop

per

per

Cap

ita E

nter

ing

Use

(kg

/yr)

S o u th K o re aM a l a y si a

N o rw a y

U S AIsra e l

J a p a n

G e rm a n y

K a z a kh sta n

U z b e ki st a n

S a u d i A ra b i a

d a ta se t w i t h o u t H o n g K o n g & S i n g a p o re

F ra n c e

A rg e n t i n a

b (1 )

N e w Z e a l a n d

U A E

In d i a

A u st ri a

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0G D P p e r c a p ita , P P P (c u rre n t in te rn a t io n a l $ )

0

4

8

1 2

Cop

per

per

Cap

ita E

nter

ing

Use

(kg

/yr)

S o u th K o re aM a l a y si a

N o rw a y

U S AIsra e l

J a p a n

G e rm a n y

K a z a kh sta n

U z b e ki st a n

S a u d i A ra b i a

d a ta se t w i t h o u t H o n g K o n g & S i n g a p o re

F ra n c e

A rg e n t i n a

b (1 )

N e w Z e a l a n d

U A E

In d i a

A u st ri a

The Master Equation

2050/2010 1.5 3 2 ??

Overall Environmental Impact =

Population x GDP x resource use x environmental impactperson GDP unit of resource use

Environmental Improvement in The Netherlands

100

GDP

CO2 emissions

Wastegeneration

Time1980 2010

20 24 29

68 7095

130 142160 164

225263

0

100

200

300

Lea

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Mag

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on 6

.6

Alu

min

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Tita

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20 24 29

68 7095

130 142160 164

225263

0

100

200

300

Lea

d

Col

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stee

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min

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Tita

niumPr

imar

yEn

ergy

Con

sum

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n (M

J/kg

)

Embedded Energy for Different Industrial Materials

Source: M. Schukert et al., 3rd Intl. Conf. Ecomaterials., Tokyo, 1997

Highland Valley Canada Copper Mine Empoundment

Source: swittersb.wordpress.com/2008/08/

Implications for Policy of Resource Supply and Use

• Virgin resources are being used at increasing rates• We demand resources without a good idea of the

ultimate quantities available for extraction• The master equation demonstrates that absolute

decoupling will be a product of addressing the technical and societal relationships that link personal wealth, development, and consumption

• New recycling technology and design for recycling will help, but major cultural changes to “dematerialize” wants and needs are probably the most effective way to insure long term sustainability

The Challenge of Decoupling Needs and Wants from Their Realization