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  • Industry Monitor. Issue 186. 09/09/2016 Page 1 © EUROCONTROL 2016

     European flights grew at a sustained rate of 2.3% in July and 2.6% in August 2016 compared with respective 2015 months.

     International arrival/departure flow in Turkey continued to decline in August (-18% on August 2015) after a sharp decline in tourism.

     Amsterdam Schiphol became the busiest airport in terms of IFR movements in the 2016 second quarter.

     Euro area GDP rose by 1.6% during the 2016 second quarter.

     Oil prices drop down to €41 per barrel in August.

    EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecasts 1

    Other Statistics and Forecasts 3

    Passenger Airlines 4

    Airports 6

    Cargo 7

    Aircraft manufacturing 7

    Environment 8

    Oil 8

    Regulation 8

    Economy 9

    Fares 9

    EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecasts European flights (ECAC – European Civil Aviation Conference area) grew at a rate of 1.3% in June, 2.3% in July and 2.6% in August 2016 compared with respective 2015 months. These growth rates were within the forecast interval (dark grey band in Figure 1). Growth in June was at the low-end of the forecast range, affected by several industrial actions, whereas July and August growth were at the high end of the forecast range. Over the June to August period, the majority of states contributed to the growth of local traffic (excluding overflights) in Europe and together added 1,765 daily flights to the network. UK and Spain were the top contributors, adding respectively ~350 and ~300 extra daily flights (excluding overflights) to the network compared to the same period last year. They both recorded a solid increase in their international arrivals/departures, in line with recent trends. Italy, Portugal, Greece and Canary Islands were amongst the fastest growing States as well, as these were preferred destinations since the start of the summer schedules. On the opposite, the number of daily flights (excluding overflights) in Turkey was reduced by 11% (350 less flights) mainly due to its international arrival/departure flow which went down 18% in August after a sharp decline in tourism, following terrorist attacks and political events (Figure 2).

    Industry Monitor The EUROCONTROL bulletin on air transport trends

    Issue N°186. 09/09/2016

  • Industry Monitor. Issue 186. 09/09/2016 Page 2 © EUROCONTROL 2016

    Over the same period, the top three extra-European partners in average daily flights on flows in both directions were the United States (1,115 flights, up 6%), the Russian Federation (855 flights, down 21%) and Israel (350 flights, up 8%). Even if Russian traffic remains low, some flows (eg Russia from/to Cyprus, Russia from/to Tunisia) have recently increased. Flows between Europe and Morocco remain below last year’s levels with 315 flights per day, a decrease of 3%. The size of the decrease of traffic flows between Europe and Tunisia reduced (from an average of -25% in January to -3% in August) as the last disruptive event took place more than one ago. Over the last three months, traffic between Europe and Tunisia accounts for ~140 flights per day (excluding overflights). Lastly flows between Europe and Egypt (~130 flights per day) remained 38% below last year’s levels. Comprehensive statistics on flights are available from the STATFOR dashboard1 (EUROCONTROL, August).

    1 www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid

    Figure 1: Monthly European Traffic and Forecast (based on the 7-year forecast Feb16).

    Figure 2: Main changes to traffic on the European network over Jun-Aug 2016

    http://www.eurocontrol.int/articles/statistics http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid

  • Industry Monitor. Issue 186. 09/09/2016 Page 3 © EUROCONTROL 2016

    Based on data from airlines for delays from all causes, the average departure delay per flight in June-July 2016 rose to 15.8 minutes, an increase of 3.8 minutes per flight compared with the same period last year. Notable increases were reactionary delays (up by 2.15 minutes per flight) and ATFCM en-route (up by 0.77 minute per flight) compared with June-July 2015. The percentage of delayed flights (>=5 minutes) was 53%, an increase of 7 percentage points when compared with the same period in 2015 (Figure 3) ATC industrial action in France during six days in June & July generated airport ATFM delay and en-route ATFM delays. Industrial action by Air France pilots on 27 July and Alitalia flight crew on the 5 July resulted in 1,400 and 142 flights being cancelled respectively. Seasonal weather impacted operations particularly at Istanbul/Sabiha Gökçen, Frankfurt, London/Heathrow, London/Gatwick, Amsterdam/Schiphol and Zurich airports. Aerodrome capacity issues generated delays at Istanbul/Sabiha Gökçen, Istanbul/Ataturk, Barcelona, Zurich, Amsterdam/Schiphol, Paris/Orly and London/Gatwick airports (EUROCONTROL, August).

    Other Statistics and Forecasts

    ACI released its traffic report statistics:

     in May: passenger traffic across the European airports network increased by 3.6% (vs May 2015). The growth is attributed to the EU market; passengers at EU airports grew by 5.5% while the non-EU airports experienced a drop of 2.5%, the first decline in passengers since 2009 – negative effects of the geopolitical tensions (ACI, 7 July),

     for the first half of 2016: European passenger traffic grew by 4.9% (vs the first half of 2015). The pace of growth was limited during the second quarter partly due to the Brussels terrorist attacks (ACI, 9 August).

    IATA released the global passenger traffic data for June. European carriers demand rose 2.1%, the smallest increase among all regions, reflecting the negative impact of recent threats and events related to terrorism. Capacity increased by 3.4% and load factor decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 83.3% (IATA, 4 August). In addition, IATA released data for global air freight demand in June. European airlines saw a 5.1% increase in freight volumes and a 4.9% increase in capacity. The performance was driven by an increase in export orders in Germany over the last few months (IATA, 3 August).

    Figure 3: Delay statistics (all-causes, airline-reported delay)

    Percentage of flights delayed on departure Breakdown of all-causes delay per flight

  • Industry Monitor. Issue 186. 09/09/2016 Page 4 © EUROCONTROL 2016

    Passenger Airlines

    Capacity, strikes, costs

    Given the outcome of the UK referendum, EasyJet is looking for an Air Operator Certificate (AOC) in an EU country in order to benefit of the same flying rights over Europe as today (EasyJet, 1 July). Austrian Airlines cancelled 300 flights on short notice between July and August due to lack of pilots crew for the scheduled flights. This unavailability is partly explained by the fact some pilots had to follow some extensive trainings needed to integrate Embraer’s jets into the flag carrier’s fleet (Austrian Airlines, 1 July). Vueling cancelled dozens of flights at Barcelona-El Prat airport at the end of June and beginning of July, reportedly leaving at least 8,000 passengers stranded. The Spanish low- cost deplored “operational problems” while Spanish government officials reported inadequate planning considering the real capacity at the start of the summer vacations (IAG, 29 July, ElPais, 4 July) EasyJet opened the recruitment of 1,200 cabin crew. It is the largest cabin crew intake in EasyJet’s twenty-year history (EasyJet, 25 July). In July, Qatar Airways increased its stakes in International Airlines Group (IAG) from 15.67% to 20.01% following good market evaluations (Qatar Airways, 1 August). Air France cabin crew called for a seven-day strike from July 27 to August 2, 2016. Roughly 1,400 flights were cancelled and 180,000 customers were affected during the 7-day of strike action. Air France estimates the direct cost of the strike at over €90 million (Air France, 2 August). Ryanair announced July as a record month: the no-frills airline carried over 11 million passengers in one month, with a load factor of 96% ; 10% more passengers compared to July last year (Ryanair, 3 August). At the 2016 Farnborough International Airshow:

     Air Europa placed an order for twenty 737 MAX (Boeing, 13 July).

     TUI Group placed an order for ten 737 MAXs and one 787-9 Dreamliner at the 2016 Farnborough International Airshow (Boeing, 12 July).

     Norwegian placed an order of 30 Airbus 321 Long Range aircraft (Norwegian, 14 July).

     Germania Group placed an order for 25 Airbus A320neos (Airbus, 12 July).

    Jet2.com inaugurated its eighth UK airport base in Birmingham (Jet2.com, 7 July). Flexjet Ltd announced the acquisition of FlairJet Ltd. from Marshall of Cambridge Aerospace Limited. Deal includes Air Operator’s Certificate allowing Flexjet Owners to travel point-to-point within Europe, the Middle East and Africa (Flexjet Ltd, 3 August).

  • Industry Monitor. Issue 186. 09/09/2016 Page 5 © EUROCONTROL 2016

    Traffic Statistics: July update

    Figure 4 and Figure 5 compare July 2016 figures with July 2015 figures for the European carriers. In addition to the number of passengers (PAX), passenger capacity is measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), traffic is measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) and load factor as a percen