industry review · 2019. 11. 13. · current market conditions • headwaters of demand stream...
TRANSCRIPT
Industry ReviewEconomics, Transportation
&Commercial Vehicles
ACT Research StaffWebinarNovember 12, 2019
Webinar Overview• Introduction - Steve Tam• Economy - Sam Kahan• Freight Transportation - Tim Denoyer• Class 8 – Jim Meil• Used Trucks/Classes 5-7 - Steve Tam• Trailers - Frank Maly• Q&A/Wrap-up - All
2
3
4
5
Economic Overview• U.S. economy decelerating but will avoid recession
• Manufacturing and Transportation most vulnerable sectors
• More downside risks than positive surprises
• Sentiment, consumer and business, are the key variables to watch
• Federal Reserve policy measured, moderate, and comfortable
6
U.S. Real GDP (2014 – 2021)(% change, annualized)
GDP growth:2018 = 2.9%2019 = 2.3%2020 = 1.7%2021 = 1.7%
GDP: Consumption strong, trade deficit drag. Business investment positive even as it slows.
Vulnerable sectors: Manufacturing, freight, retail, housing.
7
-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
Percent
real GDP
forecast
lower bound
upper bound
Trend(10-17)
Consumer Price Index (Total, Core) (2015 to 2021),(% Change, Y/Y)
Headline inflation likely to be below the 2% mark, (Q/Q) while core rate (Q/Q) is above 2%.
Swings in energy and commodities are major source of price volatility.
Tariffs are likely to impact numbers in Q4’19 and early 2020.
Wage increases moderate and manageable.
8
Federal Funds Rate(2015 – 2020)
Federal Reserve Policy moderate and measured
FOMC policy has been to ERR on the side of caution. Currently comfortable with its stance.
Current fed funds target is 1.75% to 1.50%
Steady policy unless a significant weakness occurs. FOMC won’t tighten until inflation is over the 2% benchmark and economic activity robust.
9
Volatility at Work• Figuring out direction of economy in coming weeks difficult because of
volatility
• Some accommodation about Tariffs, is on horizon, but, in our opinion, will only be a partial one. Trump speaks tonight; what he says about Phase 1 is important.
• Economic up and down. October Industrial Production will drop -0.5% but with GM settlement will jump in November.
• Tariffs imposed in early 2019 should soften economic activity and raise prices but then reverse in mid 2020.
• Brexit postponed to January is good; but uncertainty is still there, not so good.
10
Freight DemandFreight still in recession, separating pre-ship noise
Signs of broadening freight downturn
Key Factors: trade, manufacturing, inventories and private fleetsNear-term outlook for pre-tariff inventory build, payback early-2020
Downtrends tend to last 1-2 years; this one started late-2018
Trade war a key risk to the forecast, raising 2020 recession risk
11
Consumers Still Looking Good
Confidence a little shakier recently, but spending trends healthy
12
Freight Intensive Sectors Lose Traction
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20100
150
200
250
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % Chg.Index
Source: Federal Reserve Board, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2005 - August 2019
S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Housing Price IndexIndex: January 2000=100
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
90
95
100
105
110
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % Chg.Index
Source: Federal Reserve, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - September 2019
Industrial Production Index: ManufacturingIndex 2008 = 100 SA
13
Freight Recession Worsening?
Q4 should end down less than this on GM restart, but…
14
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19TD*Intermodal 2.6% 5.3% 6.2% 6.6% 5.5% 5.3% 4.8% 3.6% -1.3% -4.6% -4.7% -6.8%Chemicals 0.6% 4.2% 2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 3.5% 6.1% 4.3% -0.3% 1.1% -2.3% -3.3%Metals 8.7% 12.0% 9.8% 8.7% 2.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% 0.7% -2.1% -4.6% -12.6%Automotive 1.1% -0.5% -6.4% -1.7% -4.6% 0.7% 4.0% 0.1% -1.9% 0.1% -0.4% -12.4%Petroleum -7.7% -6.9% -6.7% 8.2% 6.4% 16.4% 35.8% 29.0% 18.8% 24.2% 9.8% 1.4%Minerals/Sand 13.7% 17.1% 14.4% 17.1% 3.4% 6.3% -1.9% -11.3% -5.8% -9.7% -4.4% -5.5%Paper/Lumber -3.8% -0.6% -0.5% 1.3% -0.8% 4.5% 5.4% 1.2% -0.8% -4.9% -8.2% -7.1%Grain/Food 4.0% 7.5% -9.3% -6.9% -5.3% 3.4% 6.8% 0.2% -1.7% -1.0% -3.4% -3.2%Coal 14.3% 17.2% 1.6% -3.9% -2.4% -1.0% -3.1% 2.0% -6.4% -0.9% -8.7% -13.3%Total 4.3% 6.7% 3.0% 3.5% 2.0% 4.2% 4.4% 3.0% -1.5% -2.4% -4.2% -7.2%Carloads, ex-Intermodal 5.8% 7.9% 0.3% 0.9% -1.0% 3.2% 4.0% 2.5% -1.6% -0.5% -3.8% -7.6%Source: Company reports; ACT Research Co. LLC. Copyright 2019
*Through w eek 44
y/y % changeNorth American Rail Volumes by Segment
Freight Recession Still Not Over
July/August respite fades in Sept/Oct; partly GM strike
-20
-10
0
10
20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% chg, y/y, 4wma
North American Railroad Volumes
Total Intermodal Metals & Chemicals
Source: Association of American Railroads, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
2011 - 2019 (Week 44)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
LTL Tonnage, Y/Y %
Cass Shipments Index, Y/Y %
Source: Cass Information Systems, Company reports, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2009 - October 2019
LTL Tonnage and Cass Shipments Index
15
TL Loads Boosted By Pre-Ship, Low Cost
Pre-tariff shipping helped Q3, hangover in early-2020With big trade caveat, freight should stabilize/grow in 2020/2021
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % Chg.TEUs (000s)
Y/Y % Change
Import TEUs (000s)
Import TEUs, SA (000s)
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - September 2019
N.A. Ports: Inbound Loaded Containers
Note: Port of Vancouver added in 2013 and Lazaro Cardenas added in 2015. Y/Y changes are adjusted to normalize.
16
Freight Hauling Supply & RatesClass 8 tractor build near historic records
Active truckload fleet +7% y/y, will be +12% 2-yr stacked in Q1’20Record September US Cl8 tractor retail sales
Orders are down, but production and sales response lagging, so capacity rebalancing has yet to begin
Carrier profits still elevated but under increasing pressureSharply lower tractor sales and ongoing consumer growth support mid-
2020 spot rate upturn
17
Active Class 8 Tractor Fleet
“We’re not an industry that deals well with prosperity.” – President and COO of Ruan, 3,700-tractor private TL, June 2019
Active tractor capacity up 10% from early 2018 - and still growing
Will still be up 5% y/y in Q1’20, on a +7% Q1’19 comp
18
Truckload Contract Rate Downturn Begins
Contract rates -2% in Q3’19 and getting worse by the day
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 42010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Y/Y % Chg.DollarsY/Y % Chg Total Revenue Per Loaded Mile, Net Fuel
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
Q1'10 - Q4'21 Forecast
TL Carrier Database: Total Revenue Per Loaded Mile, Net Fuel
19
Carrier Margins On the Precipice
Margins still at record levels; drop to 5%-6% range not too shabby
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 42010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Margin Y/Y, bp%Margin Change, Y/YNet Income Margin, Core CarriersNet income margin, core carriers, SA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
Q1'10 - Q4'20
TL Carrier Database: Net Income Margin, Core Carriers
20
Bottoming Process Beginning
SLI showing less negative upturn off severe lows
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % Chg.
DAT Spot Rates & ACT Spot Leading Indicator: Dry Vans (ex FSC)
DAT Dry Van Spot Y/Y % ChangeACT Spot Leading Indicator, advanced 3 monthsACT SLI 3MMA, advanced 3 months
Source: DAT Solutions, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2011 - October 2019
21
Current Market Conditions• Headwaters of demand stream looking increasingly tired
• Order trend continues to deteriorate, but end in sight• Backlogs dropping ~18k/month through September
• Mid and downstream metrics at the precipice• Build rates hit cycle peak in June-July, wobbling by October• Retail sales remain strong; carriers still spending into year-end
• Relative measures heading in wrong directions• BL/BU from 11 to <5• IN/RS from 2 to ~3
22
Weak Orders, Falling Backlogs
Net Orders (thru Oct prelim)14,370 YTD monthly average
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
BL/BU Ratio (Months)Units (000s)BL/BU Ratio Backlog SA BL/BU Ratio
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2000 - September 2019
Total Class 8: N.A. Backlog & BL/BU Ratio
October BL Forecast: Prelim. NO less OEM BU plans = BL likely down to around 127k
23
A Different Look at Fleet Age MetricsUS C8 Tractor Retail Sales: Past 8 Years/Past 15 Years
1990 - 2024
ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2448
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66Percent
US C8 Truck Retail Sales: Past 10 Years/Past 20 Years
1990 - 2024
ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60Percent
• 2018-19 matches 2005-06 for record NA Cl8 tractor retail sales peak • Young fleet gives truckers latitude to stop buying• Vocational fleet well balanced across population distribution
24
Order Pullback Broad-based
Preliminary October NO: 22,200 units (17.9k SA)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Units (000s)Actual 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - September 2019
Class 8 Tractor with Day Cab: N.A. Net Orders
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Units (000s)Actual 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - September 2019
Class 8 Tractor with Sleeper: N.A. Net Orders
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Units (000s)Actual 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - September 2019
Class 8 Straight Truck with Day Cab: N.A. Net Orders
25
Big Holes Starting in Q1Class 8 Backlog Fill/OEM Build Plans
September 2019 EndingBuild Forecasts from Nov. Outlook
ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
89.4 95.0 90.4
61.8
29.818.1 22.1
8.2
35.239.9 34.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32019 2020
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0Thousands
Built Filled Empty /Forecast
56.570.1 58.065.0
26
Build Makes the Turn
Orders estimated through Q4: assumed at 65k
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Units (000s)
Build Net Orders 12MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2001 - September 2019
Total Class 8 N.A.: Net Orders 12 Mo. Avg. & Build
27
Qtly Fcst: Implied BuildBuild BUPD
Q1’19 89.4k 1,418Q2 95.9k 1,499Q3 90.4k 1,459Q4 70.1k 1,187Tot. 346k
Q1’20 65.0k 1,016Q2 58.0 921Q3 56.5 911Q4 54.0 915Tot. 234k
-50
0
50
100
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Y/Y % ChangeUnits Per Day
Build/Day Y/Y % Chg.
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - April 2020
Total Class 8: N.A. Build Per Day
Large BL holes in Q1 suggest down days/weeks likely
28
U.S. CLASS 8 TRACTORS Retail Sales
January '10 - December '19f
ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
5
10
15
20
25Units (000s)
Replacement2% GDP Fleet Grow th
First Rule of Holes: Stop DiggingRetail sales & Inventory sustained too high for too long
Replacement + New demand: ~13K u/m
0
1
2
310
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
IN/RS Ratio (Months)Units (000s)Inventory Inventory SA Retail SalesRetail Sales SA IN/RS Ratio IN/RS Ratio SA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - September 2019
Total Class 8: N.A. Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio
29
Inventory CycleIN Cycle Duration
INV Start
INV Peak
+Build/ Month
INV ending
Mos. Build/ Month
Cumm. Impact
94-9518 mos.
22k 40k 1,000/m47u/d
32k 8 1,000/m47u/d
2,000/m94u/d
98-0014
35 63 1,95091
32k 15 2,06096
4,010187
05-0614
53 71 1,30060
47 12 2,00093
3,300153
11-1213
39 59 1,55072
47 6 2,00093
3,550165
14-1515
52 71 1,40065
45 15 1,73080
3,130145
18-1916 (Aug)
54 86 2,00095
45-50 target
30
Getting the forecast right in 2020-2021Upside:• Highly desirable new equipment features (technology, FE)
Secondary market technology pull-through• Carrier profit trough at high ebb (it’s not that bad out there)
Downside:• Trade war(s) devolve US/NA/Global economies into recession
This is a fluid situation• Easing of regulations favors shippers (Personal Conveyance, HoS split-berth)
Timing: • Inventory & capacity equilibrium in Q4’20, then growth – speculative
31
Used Class 8 TrucksAverage retail at $51,500 in September
• -3% m/m, -2% y/y, +7% ytdMiles flat to down, age trending upInventory increasingSoft demand now limiting factor for salesExports remain subdued - slowing global economy, strong USD
• September -8% m/m, -6% y/y, -14% ytd
32
Pricing Start to Slide
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
10
20
30
40
50
60
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % ChangeTotal ($000)
Class 8: U.S. Used Truck Average Sale Price
Y/Y % Chg. Monthly 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2009 - September 2019
-40
-20
0
20
40
6030
40
50
60
70
80
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % ChangeTotal Reported Price ($000)Y/Y % Chg. Monthly 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2009 - September 2019
Class 8: U.S. 4 to 5 Year Old Used Truck Average Sale Price4 to 5 year old, 400-500,000 miles legacy
33
Miles Flat to Down/Age Creeping Up
-20
-10
0
10
20
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Y/Y % ChangeTotal (000s)
Class 8: U.S. Used Truck Average Miles
Y/Y % Chg. Monthly 6MMA
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2009 - September 2019
72
78
84
90
96Total (Months)
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2009 - September 2019Class 8: U.S. Used Truck Average Age
34
Exports Subdued
13.514.4
15.0
22.1
15.4
11.813.0
22.7
16.4
14.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19Source: ITC, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
2010 - 2019(Actual through September 2019)
Used Class 8 Tractor Exports
Units (000s)
35
Medium DutyBL/BU ratio moderatingIN/RS ratio on target; inventory rolls over
• OEM build peaking− Q1’19 = 1,108, Q2’19 = 1,218, Q3’19 = 1,170, Q4’19 = 1,038
Market will see sales growth in 2019, build flat on inventory draw downKey MD truck demand drivers staying between the lines:
• Consumer confidence lower but remains elevated− Confident consumers are more willing to spend
• Construction (resi/non-resi) and light truck and automotive markets are especially important to MD trucks; slowing growth/contraction in 2019 will be partially offset by services spending and e-commerce
• State and local governments exhibiting moderate growth
36
N.A. Classes 5-7 Order Distribution(Data through September 2019, annualized)
Classes 5-7 Orders
Truck (000s)
Bus (000s)
RV (000s)
Total* (000s)
Past 12 Mo. 193.9 41.3 17.3 262.1
Past 6 (AR) 173.7 43.0 15.1 241.8
Past 3 (AR) 164.6 35.8 12.8 221.9
September (AR) 160.5 43.1 11.3 222.3
Sep SAAR 220.5
Oct (P) SAAR 175.7* Total includes Step Vans
37
Backlog/Build Pressuring Diminished
1234
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
BL/BU Ratio (Months)Units (000s)BL/BU Ratio Backlog SA BL/BU Ratio
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - September 2019
Total Classes 5-7: N.A. Backlog & BL/BU Ratio
38
Inventory Persistently High, But In Bounds
1
2
3
4
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
IN/RS Ratio (Months)Units (000s)IN/RS Ratio Inventory Retail Sales SA IN/RS Ratio
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - September 2019
Total Classes 5-7: N.A. Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio
39
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000Cl 5-7 Truck Sales (SAAR)Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR)
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC, MOTOR INTELLIGENCE
Light Vehicle Sales vs. Cl 5-7 Truck Sales
LIGHT VEHICLE RS Cl 5-7 TRUCK RS Poly. (LIGHT VEHICLE RS) Poly. (Cl 5-7 TRUCK RS)
40
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20RV 12 12 13 15 17 18 21 22 22 15 17Bus 27 27 32 34 37 38 41 43 43 43 45Truck 79 127 143 153 172 181 171 184 208 224 196Total 119 167 188 202 227 237 233 249 273 282 258
119
167188
202227
237 233249
273 282258
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Units (000s)
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
2010 - 2020
N.A. Classes 5-7 Production
41
U.S. Trailer Market Update
• Order season has started• Lackluster interest
• So different than a few of quarters ago• Cancel volume still surprising• Build rates strong…well above order intake • Factory inventory only slightly below late summer record• No comments heard on red-tags• Market pressures…pendulum swings to “advantage fleets”
42
A Slow Order Season Underway
• Fleet financial headwinds
• Significant capacity increases
• Serious review of equipment needs
• Following seasonal patterns, but more like 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Uni
ts in
‘000
s
SEPTEMBER 2019NET TRAILER ORDERS
18,629 UNITS
2019 2017 2018
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC Copyright 2019
43
A Slow Order Season Underway
• Fleet financial headwinds
• Significant capacity increases
• Serious review of equipment needs
• Following seasonal patterns, but more like 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Uni
ts in
‘000
s
YTD SEPTEMBER NET TRAILER ORDERS
2016 – 135K2019 – 136K
2016 2019
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC Copyright 2019
44
Backlog Finally Breaks into 2020
• BL edged into 2020 in July• Closed Sep just into Feb’20• 2019 production schedule
continues to churn• Fleets know 2020 slots
available• Component pressure?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Materials
Sep'19Aug'19Jul'19
Jun'19May'19Apr'19Mar'19Feb'19Jan'19Dec'18
U.S. Total Trailer Backlog in Months
45
BL/BU Almost Continually Shrinking
• BL now shortest since Sep’17
• Orders must surpass build rate to stop decline
• Or… production must ease• BL basically at component
lead times0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Materials
Sep'19Aug'19Jul'19
Jun'19May'19Apr'19Mar'19Feb'19Jan'19Dec'18
U.S. Total Trailer Backlog in Months
Months
46
Orderboard Now Declining Y/Y
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Thou
sand
s
Y/Y%Ch (Right) Backlog (Left)
• July was first Y/Y BL decline since Fall’17
• Expect further declines as year closes
• Softening pressure on parts/materials availability
• Potential price pressures
• Advantage - Fleets
47
Production Will East Into Q1’20
• Standard Pattern• Lower rates• Days/Shifts• Staffing last resort
• Early y/y 2020 comps will be weak
• Waiting order support
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Y/Y % ChangeUnits
Total Trailers: Build Per Day
Build/Day Y/Y % Change
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
January 2010 - March 2020Year Over Year Percent Change
48
2020 Forecast Lower, but Still Solid
• 2019 projected at all-time record
• 2015-2019 were 5 of Top 6• 2000-2009 Avg 194k• 2010-2019 Avg 261k• 2020 #12, but at the 2010-
2019 avg '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20Dry Vans 62 120 128 135 155 181 181 183 194 203 160Reefer Vans 28 34 34 36 39 47 47 43 46 50 41Flatbeds 8 15 24 22 26 31 20 24 35 32 23All Others 29 39 45 42 48 50 40 42 48 47 41Total 127 209 231 235 268 308 288 291 323 333 265
127
209231 235
268
308288 291
323 333
265
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350Units (000s)
Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2019
2010 - 2020
U.S. Trailer Production
49
Build Forecasts
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NA Class 8 (000s)
228.3 255.6 324.5 345.8 233.5
NA Classes 5-7 (000s)
232.9 248.7 272.7 281.6 257.6
US TrailerTotal Trailers (000s)
287.5 291.0 323.0 332.8 265.2
50
51
4440 Middle RoadColumbus, IN 47203
812.379.2085