inflection points and polar bears
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Inflection Points and Polar Bears. Jason Hamilton Thomas J. Pfaff. Glacier Pair Images. http://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdf. A Look at Global Temperature . T(x)=0.0005x 2 -0.00527x+57.137 F T’(x)=0.001x-0.00527 F/year x years after 1950 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Calculus of Sustainability
Inflection Points and Polar BearsJason HamiltonThomas J. Pfaff
Glacier Pair Imageshttp://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glacier_then_now.pdfA Look at Global Temperature T(x)=0.0005x2 -0.00527x+57.137 FT(x)=0.001x-0.00527 F/yearx years after 1950
T(58)= 58.51 F and T(58)=0.0528 F/yearIn 2008 the average global temperature was 58.51 deg F and increasing at a rate of 0.0528 deg F per year. - Now Ask a Question About This-
National Academies Report: Climate Change The rising temperature observed since 1978 are particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is so high and because, during the same period, the energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been measured precisely enough to conclude that Earths warming was not due to changes in the Sun.-March 2006Temperature PredictionsT(100)=61.60 F and T(150)=67.61 FThe model predicts that in 2050 the average temperature will be 61.6 deg F, and in 2100 it will be 67.61 deg F, an increase of 3.49 and 9.48 deg F, respectively, since 2000. Now Ask a Question About This-
More Temperature PredictionsUsing T(58)=.0528 F/yearIf global temperatures continue to increase at current rates, then by 2050 there will be an increase of 2.61 deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 5.24 deg F since 2000. The average global temperature in those years will be 60.73 and 63.37, respectively.
-National Academies Report on Climate Change (March 2006)Summary of Sea Ice1980Max: 16.13 msk, x=2.59Min: 7.86 msk, x=8.79Inf: -2.20 msk/month, x=6.44Melt Period: 6.20 months
2008Max: 15.11 msk, x=2.26Min: 5.40 msk, x=8.80Inf: -2.84 msk/month, x=6.77Melt Period: 6.54 monthsWho Cares?D Heat content of atmosphere & hydrosphere Air Temperature & D Water Temperature D IceD IceSpatial Extent?Thickness?Timing of thaw?Timing of re-freeze?Ice characteristics?
JanuarySeptMarchJuneThawFreezeShrinkGrowMales
JanuarySeptMarchJuneThawFreezeDenFemalesLeave denCubsMate
So Who Cares? We Do.
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Questions?Jason: [email protected]: [email protected]
Partly supported by NSF DUE-0837721