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Influence of Technology Directions Influence of Technology Directions on System Architecture on System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology VP of Science and Technology IBM Research Division IBM Research Division September 10, 2001 September 10, 2001

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Page 1: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Influence of Technology Directions Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureon System Architecture

Dr. Randy IsaacDr. Randy IsaacVP of Science and TechnologyVP of Science and Technology

IBM Research DivisionIBM Research DivisionSeptember 10, 2001September 10, 2001

Page 2: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Moore's Law continues beyond conventional scalingMoore's Law continues beyond conventional scaling

Power becomes the limiting metricPower becomes the limiting metric

The integration focus moves from circuit to processorThe integration focus moves from circuit to processor

Page 3: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

after Kurzweil, 1999 & Moravec, 1998

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

1E-6

1E-3

1E+0

1E+3

1E+6

1E+9

1E+12C

om

pu

tatio

ns/

sec

MechanicalElectro-mechanical

Vacuum tubeDiscrete transistor

Integrated circuit

$1000 Buys...$1000 Buys...$1000 Buys...$1000 Buys...

Page 4: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Integrated Circuit Performance TrendsIntegrated Circuit Performance TrendsIntegrated Circuit Performance TrendsIntegrated Circuit Performance Trends#

Tra

nsis

tors

per

Chi

p

x

x

x

x

1Gbx Logic

Density

Memory

1GHz

64Mb

4Mb

256Kb

16Kb

1980 1990 2000

1MHz

10MHz

100MHz

1010

109

108

107

106

105

104

103

1011

Page 5: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

The Original Moore's Law ProposalThe Original Moore's Law ProposalThe Original Moore's Law ProposalThe Original Moore's Law Proposal

After G. E. Moore"Electronics," 1965

Page 6: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

A Decade of AgreementA Decade of AgreementA Decade of AgreementA Decade of Agreement

After G. E. Moore Proc. IEDM, 1975

Page 7: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Complexity's InfluenceComplexity's InfluenceComplexity's InfluenceComplexity's Influence

After G. E. Moore SPIE v. 2440, 1995

Page 8: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Increased integrationIncreased integrationIncreased integrationIncreased integration

Function implemented with:

Many silicon components

Few silicon components

One Chip

Function

Speed

Cost

Page 9: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Partitioning the Improvement RatePartitioning the Improvement RatePartitioning the Improvement RatePartitioning the Improvement Rate

Improving Integration: Components per chipImproving Integration: Components per chip

50% Gain from Lithography50% Gain from Lithography

25% Gain from Device and Circuit Innovation25% Gain from Device and Circuit Innovation

25% Gain from Increased Chip Size 25% Gain from Increased Chip Size (manufacturability)(manufacturability)

Improving Performance:Improving Performance:

Transistor Performance ImprovementTransistor Performance Improvement

Interconnect Density and DelayInterconnect Density and Delay

Packaging and CoolingPackaging and Cooling

Circuit-level and System-level GainsCircuit-level and System-level Gains

Page 10: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Evolution of Memory DensityEvolution of Memory DensityEvolution of Memory DensityEvolution of Memory Density

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Meg

abits

/chi

p

doubling time: 1.5 yr.

doubling time: 3 yr.

Page 11: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

95 97 99 02 05 08 11

1994 SIA NTRS

1997 SIA NTRS

1998 / 1999 ITRS

Min

imu

m F

eatu

re S

ize

(nm

)

(DR

AM

Hal

f-P

itch

)500

350

250

180

130

100

70

50

35

2595 97 99 02 05 08 11

ISMT Litho 2000 Plan

Area for FutureAcceleration

ITRS Lithography RoadmapITRS Lithography RoadmapITRS Lithography RoadmapITRS Lithography Roadmap

Industry-Wide Lithography Technology Acceleration

Page 12: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

1000 10100 0.1 0.01Nanometers

1

Feature Sizes

248 157193

Deep UV Extreme UV

X-ray Proximity

Electron Beam

365435&

405

Wavelength

Dimensions in LithographyDimensions in LithographyDimensions in LithographyDimensions in Lithography

Page 13: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Original Device

Device ScalingDevice ScalingDevice ScalingDevice Scaling

Lxd

GATEn+ source n+ drain

WIRINGVoltage, V

W

p substrate, doping NA

tox

Page 14: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

SCALING:Voltage: V/ααOxide: tox /ααWire width: W/ααGate width: L/ααDiffusion: xd /ααSubstrate: αα *

NA

Device ScalingDevice ScalingDevice ScalingDevice Scaling

Scaled Device

L/ααxd/αα

GATEn+ source n+ drain

WIRINGVoltage, V / αα

W/αα

p substrate, doping αα*NA

tox/αα

Page 15: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

SCALING:Voltage: V/ααOxide: tox /ααWire width: W/ααGate width: L/ααDiffusion: xd /ααSubstrate: αα * NA

RESULTS:Higher Density: ~αα 22

Higher Speed: ~ααLower Power/ckt: ~1/α/α 22

Power Density: ~Constant

Device ScalingDevice ScalingDevice ScalingDevice Scaling

Scaled Device

L/ααxd/αα

GATEn+ source n+ drain

WIRINGVoltage, V / αα

W/αα

p substrate, doping αα*NA

tox/αα

Page 16: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Fundamental atomic limit to scaling Fundamental atomic limit to scaling Fundamental atomic limit to scaling Fundamental atomic limit to scaling reciperecipereciperecipe

Oxide thickness is approaching a few atomic layers

silicon bulk field effect transistor (FET)

present future

1.2 nm oxynitride

Page 17: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Limit of Oxide ScalingLimit of Oxide ScalingLimit of Oxide ScalingLimit of Oxide Scaling

0 1 2 3 4

Gate Oxide Thickness (nm)

1E-8

1E-6

1E-4

1E-2

1E+0

1E+2

1E+4

1E+6G

ate

Cur

rent

Den

sity

(A

/cm

2)

(Gate voltages: 0.9 to 2.0 V)

Page 18: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year of First Production

1

10

100

1000

FP

GIndustry Logic Performance Trends

High Performance CMOS Logic TrendHigh Performance CMOS Logic TrendHigh Performance CMOS Logic TrendHigh Performance CMOS Logic Trend

Page 19: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Relative CMOS Device Performance Relative CMOS Device Performance Relative CMOS Device Performance Relative CMOS Device Performance

19861992

19982004

2010

Year of Technology Capability

Rel

ativ

e D

evic

e P

erfo

rman

ce

Bulk FETsSOI FETsLow Temp.

Double Gate FETs

New structures are needed to maintain device performance... ?

Page 20: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

MOSFET Device Structure (R)evolutionMOSFET Device Structure (R)evolutionMOSFET Device Structure (R)evolutionMOSFET Device Structure (R)evolution

New devices/materials support accelerated growth rate

R

elat

ive

Dev

ice

Per

form

ance

Year

?

Page 21: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Better Performance Without ScalingBetter Performance Without ScalingBetter Performance Without ScalingBetter Performance Without Scaling

Page 22: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Novel DevicesNovel DevicesNovel DevicesNovel Devices

Carbon NanotubesCarbon Nanotubes

Organic TransistorsOrganic Transistors

Quantum ComputingQuantum Computing

MolecularMolecularDevicesDevices

V-Groove V-Groove TransistorsTransistors

Page 23: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

64-bit S/390 Microprocessor64-bit S/390 Microprocessor64-bit S/390 Microprocessor64-bit S/390 Microprocessor

47 Million transistors47 Million transistors

Copper interconnect -- 7 layers Copper interconnect -- 7 layers

Size: 17.9 x 9.9 mmSize: 17.9 x 9.9 mm

Single scalar, in-order executionSingle scalar, in-order execution

Split L1 cache (256K I & D)Split L1 cache (256K I & D)

BTB 2K x 4, multiportedBTB 2K x 4, multiported

On chip compression unitOn chip compression unit

> 1 GHz frequency on a 20-way system> 1 GHz frequency on a 20-way system

Page 24: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Blue PacificBlue PacificBlue PacificBlue Pacific

3.9 trillion operations/sec3.9 trillion operations/sec

Can simulate nuclear devicesCan simulate nuclear devices

15,000 X speed of average desktop15,000 X speed of average desktop

80,000 X memory of average desktop80,000 X memory of average desktop

75 terabytes of disk storage capacity 75 terabytes of disk storage capacity

Page 25: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Overall System Level Performance Improvement Will Come From Many Small Improvements

Pe

rf

or

ma

nc

e

CA

GR

Year

20% CAGR

60 to 90% CAGR

2000

Overall performance Application tuning Middleware tuning OS: tuning/scalability Compilers Multi-way systems Motherboard design: electrical, debug Memory subsystem: latency/bandwidth Packaging: more pins, better electrical/cooling Tools / environment / designer productivity Architecture/Microarchitecture/Logic design Circuit design New device structures Other process technology Traditional CMOS scaling

System Level Performance ImprovementSystem Level Performance ImprovementSystem Level Performance ImprovementSystem Level Performance Improvement

Page 26: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Moore's Law continues beyond conventional scalingMoore's Law continues beyond conventional scaling

Power becomes the limiting metricPower becomes the limiting metric

The integration focus moves from circuit to processorThe integration focus moves from circuit to processor

Page 27: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

4x

16x

256x

1/4x

1/16x

Mag

nitu

de

Lithography

1x½x / 6 yrs.

Moore's Law

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

2x / 1.9 yrs.

# Transistors

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

2x / 1.5 yrs.

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

½x / 3.8 yrs.

Industry

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

~ flat

Chip Area

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

2x / 6 yrs.

64x

Microprocessor Size TrendsMicroprocessor Size TrendsMicroprocessor Size TrendsMicroprocessor Size Trends

Page 28: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Performance

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

2x / 1.5 yrs.

4x

16x

256x

1/4x

1/16x

Mag

nitu

de

1x

Moore's Law

64x

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Industry Frequency

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

2x / 2 yrs.

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Power

2x / 3 yrs.

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Microprocessor Performance TrendsMicroprocessor Performance TrendsMicroprocessor Performance TrendsMicroprocessor Performance Trends

Power Density

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

2x / 6 yrs.

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Power Density

Page 29: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Processor 486DX Device Scaling

Moore's Law

Date 04/10/89 2001 2001

Technology (um) 1 0.25 0.25

Vdd (V) 5 1.25 1.25

FPG 5 20 20

Frequency (MHz) 25 100 6400

SpecInt95 0.5 2.0 128

# Transistors (M) 1.2 1.2 307

Chip Size (sq. mm) 165 10 660

Power (W) 4 0.25 66

Power Density (W/sq. cm)

2.5 2.5 10

Processor 486DX Device Scaling

Date 04/10/89 2001

Technology (um) 1 0.25

Vdd (V) 5 1.25

FPG 5 20

Frequency (MHz) 25 100

SpecInt95 0.5 2.0

# Transistors (M) 1.2 1.2

Chip Size (sq. mm) 165 10

Power (W) 4 0.25

Power Density (W/sq. cm)

2.5 2.5

Processor 486DX

Date 04/10/89

Technology (um) 1

Vdd (V) 5

FPG 5

Frequency (MHz) 25

SpecInt95 0.5

# Transistors (M) 1.2

Chip Size (sq. mm) 165

Power (W) 4

Power Density (W/sq. cm)

2.5

Microprocessor Scaling TrendsMicroprocessor Scaling TrendsMicroprocessor Scaling TrendsMicroprocessor Scaling Trends

Processor 486DX Device Scaling

Moore's Law

Pentium 4

Date 04/10/89 2001 2001 04/23/01

Technology (um) 1 0.25 0.25 0.18

Vdd (V) 5 1.25 1.25 1.75

FPG 5 20 20 51

Frequency (MHz) 25 100 6400 1700

SpecInt95 0.5 2.0 128 71

# Transistors (M) 1.2 1.2 307 42

Chip Size (sq. mm) 165 10 660 216

Power (W) 4 0.25 66 64

Power Density (W/sq. cm)

2.5 2.5 10 29.5

Page 30: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

1

10

100

1000

1.5µµ 1µµ 0.7µµ 0.5µµ 0.35µµ 0.25µµ 0.18µµ 0.13µµ 0.1µµ 0.07µµ

i386i486

Pentium®

Pentium Pro®

Pentium II ®

Pentium III ®

W/cm2

Hot Plate

Nuclear Reactor

Source: Fred Pollack, Intel. New Microprocessor Challenges in the Coming Generations of CMOS Technologies, Micro32

Power Density: The Fundamental ProblemPower Density: The Fundamental ProblemPower Density: The Fundamental ProblemPower Density: The Fundamental Problem

Page 31: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

IT electrical power needs are projected to reach crisis IT electrical power needs are projected to reach crisis proportionsproportions

Server farm energy consumption is increasing exponentiallyServer farm energy consumption is increasing exponentially

...more Watts/sq. ft than semiconductor or automobile plants...more Watts/sq. ft than semiconductor or automobile plants

...energy needs constitute 60% of cost...energy needs constitute 60% of cost

Interesting anecdotesInteresting anecdotesThe "2,400 megawatt problem":The "2,400 megawatt problem":

27 farms proposed for 27 farms proposed for South King CountySouth King County will require as much energy will require as much energy as as SeattleSeattle (including (including BoeingBoeing))

ExodusExodus considering building power plant near its considering building power plant near its Santa ClaraSanta Clara facility facility

San Jose City CouncilSan Jose City Council approved 250 MW power plant for approved 250 MW power plant for US DataPortUS DataPort server farmserver farm

and installation of 80 back-up diesel generators and installation of 80 back-up diesel generators

PowerPowerPowerPower

Page 32: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Server Farm Heat Density TrendServer Farm Heat Density TrendServer Farm Heat Density TrendServer Farm Heat Density Trend

Highest Communication: 28% AGRLowest Tape storage: 7%* Slower growth after 2005 due to improvement in semiconductor power consumption

Reprinted with permission of The Uptime Institute from a White Paper titled Heat Density Trends in Data Processing, Computer Systems, andTelecommunications Equipment Version 1.0.

Page 33: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

YEAR

1E-10

1E-6

1E-2

1E+2

1E+6

1E+10

En

erg

y (p

J)

kT (room temp.)

Energy Dissipated per Logic OperationEnergy Dissipated per Logic OperationEnergy Dissipated per Logic OperationEnergy Dissipated per Logic Operation

Page 34: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

SCALING:Voltage: V/ααOxide: tox /ααWire width: W/ααGate width: L/ααDiffusion: xd /ααSubstrate: αα * NA

RESULTS:Higher Density: ~αα 22

Higher Speed: ~ααLower Power/ckt: ~1/α/α 22

Power Density: ~Constant

Device ScalingDevice ScalingDevice ScalingDevice Scaling

Scaled Device

L/ααxd/αα

GATEn+ source n+ drain

WIRINGVoltage, V / αα

W/αα

p substrate, doping αα*NA

tox/αα

Page 35: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

MOSFET Device Parameter TrendsMOSFET Device Parameter TrendsMOSFET Device Parameter TrendsMOSFET Device Parameter Trends

0.01 0.1 1

Gate Length, Lgate (um)

0.1

1

10

100

1000

classic scaling

Tox (CC)

Vdd (V)

Vt (V)

Page 36: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

-0.5 0 0.5 1

Gate Voltage (V)

1.0E-10

1.0E-8

1.0E-6

1.0E-4

1.0E-2

1.0E+0

1.0E+2

So

urc

e/D

rain

Cu

rren

t (A

/cm

)

T=100KT=200KT=300K

L = 25 nmVds = 1V

Subthreshold slope steepens as temperature is reduced

Low Temperature CMOSLow Temperature CMOSLow Temperature CMOSLow Temperature CMOS

Page 37: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

0.01 0.1 10.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

Cgate (fF/um)Inverter Delay (ps)NFET Id-sat (A/m)Power Density (W/cm2)CV/I Delay (a. u.)

LGATE (lm)

CMOS Performance Parameter TrendsCMOS Performance Parameter TrendsCMOS Performance Parameter TrendsCMOS Performance Parameter Trends

Page 38: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Relative Power Density in Scaled CMOS Relative Power Density in Scaled CMOS Relative Power Density in Scaled CMOS Relative Power Density in Scaled CMOS

After B. Davari, et al., IEEE Proc. Vol. 83, p. 595, 1995.

1

2

3

4R

elat

ive

Po

wer

Den

sity

1.00.50.20.10.05

Channel Length (µµm)

5.0V

3.3V

1.5V

1.8V

1.5V

1.2V

High Performance

2.5V

2.5V

0.8V

1.2V1.0V

Low Power

(RELATIVE DENSITY)

(1.0)

(2.5)

(6.3)

(12.8)

(25)

(48)

Page 39: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

0.01 0.1 11E-5

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

Pow

er (

W/c

m2)

Gate Length (um)

Active Power Density

Subthreshold Power Density

?

CMOS Power Density TrendsCMOS Power Density TrendsCMOS Power Density TrendsCMOS Power Density Trends

Page 40: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Microprocessor Power Draw vs. FrequencyMicroprocessor Power Draw vs. FrequencyMicroprocessor Power Draw vs. FrequencyMicroprocessor Power Draw vs. Frequency

200 300 400 500 600 700

Operating Frequency (MHz)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40P

ow

er (W

atts

)

Page 41: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Moore's Law continues beyond conventional scalingMoore's Law continues beyond conventional scaling

Power becomes the limiting metricPower becomes the limiting metric

The integration focus moves from circuit to processorThe integration focus moves from circuit to processor

Page 42: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

We've been here before!We've been here before!We've been here before!We've been here before!

Heat Flux Explosion

Year of Announcement

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Mo

du

le H

eat

Flu

x(w

atts

/cm

2 )

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Bipolar

CMOS

Vacuum IBM 360IBM 370IBM 3033

IBM ES9000

Fujitsu VP2000IBM 3090S

NTT

Fujitsu M-780

IBM 3090

CDC Cyber 205IBM 4381

IBM 3081Fujitsu M380

IBM RY5

IBM GP

IBM RY6

Apache

Pulsar

Merced

IBM RY7

IBM RY4

Pentium II(DSIP)

Steam Iron(5W/cm2)

Page 43: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

1

10

100

1000

Rel

ativ

e P

erfo

rman

ce

Bipolar CMOS

S/390 G4

S/390 G3

9021-711

168

S/390 G5

S/390 Mainframe CPU PerformanceS/390 Mainframe CPU PerformanceS/390 Mainframe CPU PerformanceS/390 Mainframe CPU Performance

S/390 G6S/390 G7

Page 44: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

S/390: Comparison of Bipolar and CMOSS/390: Comparison of Bipolar and CMOSS/390: Comparison of Bipolar and CMOSS/390: Comparison of Bipolar and CMOS

ES9000 9X2 S/390 G5

Technology Bipolar CMOS

Total Chips 5000 29

(12 CPUs)

Total Parts 6659 92

Weight (lbs) 31.1 K 2.0 K

Power Req (KW) 153 5

Chips/processor 390 1

Maximum Memory (GB) 10 24

Space (sq ft) 672 52

Page 45: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

1

10

100

1000

Rel

ativ

e P

erfo

rman

ce

Bipolar CMOS

S/390 G4

S/390 G3

9021-711

168

S/390 G5

S/390 Mainframe CPU PerformanceS/390 Mainframe CPU PerformanceS/390 Mainframe CPU PerformanceS/390 Mainframe CPU Performance

S/390 G6S/390 G7

Page 46: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Focus on massively parallel systemsFocus on massively parallel systemsFocus on massively parallel systemsFocus on massively parallel systems

Use slower processors with much greater power efficiencyUse slower processors with much greater power efficiency

Scale to desired performance with parallel systemsScale to desired performance with parallel systems

Workload scaling efficiency must sustain power efficiencyWorkload scaling efficiency must sustain power efficiency

Physical distance must be small to keep communication Physical distance must be small to keep communication power manageable.power manageable.

Example: Processor A is slower than Bby a factor S but more power efficient by E.Then MP System A at the same performanceas MP System B has lower power by E/S.

Page 47: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Microprocessor EfficienciesMicroprocessor EfficienciesMicroprocessor EfficienciesMicroprocessor Efficiencies

100 1000 10000 100000

Active power (mW)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000P

erfo

rman

ce (

DM

IPS

)

1 M

IPS/m

W

0.1 M

IPS/

mW

¢

Page 48: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Parallel Performance Scaling ModelParallel Performance Scaling ModelParallel Performance Scaling ModelParallel Performance Scaling Model

Number of processors

0

20

40

60

80

100R

elat

ive

per

form

ance

Ideal scaling Real scaling

Nmax

Pmax

Page 49: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Power/Bandwidth by Interconnect LengthPower/Bandwidth by Interconnect LengthPower/Bandwidth by Interconnect LengthPower/Bandwidth by Interconnect Length

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

Interconnect Length (meters)

1

10

100P

ow

er/B

and

wid

th (

mW

/Gb

it/s

ec)

on-chip

chip-chip

board-board

rack-rack

room-room

Page 50: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Supercomputer Peak Performance Supercomputer Peak Performance Supercomputer Peak Performance Supercomputer Peak Performance

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year Introduced

1E+2

1E+4

1E+6

1E+8

1E+10

1E+12

1E+14

1E+16

Pea

k S

pee

d (

flo

ps)

Doubling time = 1.5 yr.

ENIAC (vacuum tubes)UNIVAC

IBM 701 IBM 704

IBM 7090 (transistors)

IBM Stretch

CDC 6600 (ICs)CDC 7600

CDC STAR-100 (vectors)CRAY-1

Cyber 205 X-MP2 (parallel vectors)

CRAY-2X-MP4

Y-MP8i860 (MPPs)

ASCI White

PetaflopBlueGene

Blue Pacific

DeltaCM-5 Paragon

NWTASCI Red

ASCI Red

CP-PACS

Page 51: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

ASCI WhiteASCI WhiteASCI WhiteASCI White

Page 52: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Cellular ArchitectureCellular ArchitectureCellular ArchitectureCellular Architecture

computational efficiency ~ 0.2 GFLOP/W

Page 53: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

IBM PPC440 system-on-chip

EDRAM

4MBytesMemoryMapped or Cache

FP2.8GF

440 PowerPC~1 Watt

32 kB I-Cache32 kB D-Cache

Six 2Gb/sec serial links

PrefetchBuffer

PossibleL2

ControlPLB Infc

10/100MbEthernet

Link DMA

& buffers

DDR/DDR2

controller

24

Global Functions

Ethernetfor I/O

DDR SDRAM256-512MB

144

Link DMA+ Buffersand Global Tree

Integrated memory system

1Gb Ethernet or Infiniband

EthernetFor boot

Example of a Cellular NodeExample of a Cellular NodeExample of a Cellular NodeExample of a Cellular Node

Page 54: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

65536 nodes interconnected with three integrated networks

Cellular Communication NetworksCellular Communication NetworksCellular Communication NetworksCellular Communication Networks

EthernetIncorporated into every node ASICDisk I/OHost control, booting and diagnostics

3 Dimensional Torus

Virtual cut-through hardware routing to maximize efficiency2.8 Gb/s on each of 12 node links (total 4.2 GB/s per node)Communication backbone134 TB/s total torus interconnect bandwidth

1.4/2.8 TB/s bisectional bandwidth

Global TreeOne-to-all or all-all broadcast functionalityArithmetic operations implemented in tree~1.4 GB/s of bandwidth from any node to all other nodes Latency of tree less than 1usec~90TB/s total binary tree bandwidth (64k machine)

Page 55: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Node Card and I/O Card DesignNode Card and I/O Card DesignNode Card and I/O Card DesignNode Card and I/O Card Design

Compute cardsCompute cards8 processors, 2 x 2 x 2 (x,y,z)8 processors, 2 x 2 x 2 (x,y,z)256 MB RAM each processor256 MB RAM each processorRedundant power suppliesRedundant power suppliesFast EthernetFast Ethernet

I/O cardsI/O cards4 processors (no torus)4 processors (no torus)512MB-1GB each processor512MB-1GB each processorRedundant Power SuppliesRedundant Power SuppliesFast and 1Gb EthernetFast and 1Gb Ethernet

Compute Nodes

Gb Ethernet

I/O Node

100Mb Ethernet

Switch

Page 56: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Rack DesignRack Design

1024 compute nodes1024 compute nodes 256 GB DRAM 256 GB DRAM

2.8TF peak 2.8TF peak

16 I/O nodes16 I/O nodes8 GB DRAM8 GB DRAM16 Gb Ethernet16 Gb Ethernet

~15 KW, air cooled~15 KW, air cooled1+1 or 2+1 redundant power 1+1 or 2+1 redundant power 2+1 redundant fans2+1 redundant fans

BL ASIC2 cores

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

One compute node

One I/O node

BL ASIC2 cores DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

DRAM

Page 57: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

5.6 GF/s4 MB

Chip(2 processors)

Board(8 chips, 2x2x2)

Cabinet(128 boards, 8x8x16)

44.8 GF/s2.08 GB

5.7 TF/s266 GB

System(64 cabinets, 32x32x64)

360 TF/s16 TB

440 core

440 core

EDRAM

I/O

Building a Cellular System Building a Cellular System Building a Cellular System Building a Cellular System

Page 58: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

Moore's Law continues beyond conventional scalingMoore's Law continues beyond conventional scalingTechnology innovation will overcome limitsTechnology innovation will overcome limits

Power becomes the limiting metricPower becomes the limiting metricTechnology trend is to higher power densityTechnology trend is to higher power density

The integration focus moves from circuit to processorThe integration focus moves from circuit to processorRadical power reduction depends on efficient processorsRadical power reduction depends on efficient processorsMassively parallel systems have great potentialMassively parallel systems have great potential

Page 59: Influence of Technology Directions on System Architectureresearch.ac.upc.edu/pact01/keynotes/isaac.pdfon System Architecture Dr. Randy Isaac VP of Science and Technology IBM Research

((((Hopefully NotHopefully NotHopefully NotHopefully Not ) The End!) The End!) The End!) The End!