informa telecoms & media’s top 10 picks for mwc 2012
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TOP 10 Trends at MWC2012TRANSCRIPT
Mobile World CongressFact Pack2012
Hear from our analysts during Mobile World Congress
Informa Telecoms & Media has a team of 20 senior analysts attending Mobile World Congress this year. In between meetings, briefings, presentations (and queuing) they’ll be blogging and tweeting about the key developments, trends and rumours. The following document outlines who will be attending and how you can contact and follow them throughout the show.
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European operators will launch new IP voice and messaging services based on the RCSe
standard and which, they hope, will combat the threat to their business posed by services such
as What’sApp, iMessage and Viber. The extent to which these launches are supported by a wide
range of devices is absolutely crucial to the success of RCS.
M2M technology will go mainstream at this year’s Mobile World Congress with the leading global
infrastructure vendors parading their newly-found expertise in service management platforms.
Spanning both smartphones and tablets, the OS ecosystem and verticalization are becoming ever-
more important, so expect more from Microsoft at MWC12 following last year’s marketing invasion
by Android’s “little green men”. We also expect to hear an update on operators’ own platform
strategies and whether there is any progress to report on the WAC initiative initially launched two
years ago.
Momentum is gathering in the connected health market with an ever-growing range of new
medical applications and devices both from established and new players.
The connected car is coming of age and the Mobile World Congress could see contract
announcements between car OEMs, operators and providers of in-car communications and
entertainment systems.
Small cells rather than just LTE will emerge as the key battleground for network infrastructure
vendor solutions. The adoption of Carrier Wi-Fi will feature heavily.
The use of smartphones and tablets to connect to television sets will play a central role in the
connected home of the future which will be a feature of handset vendors exhibition areas.
There will be no shortage of options for mobile operators shopping for solutions to manage the
growth of data carried over their networks. Solutions will either a) enable operators (or users) to
better understand what traffic they are carrying, b) provide tools and techniques for managing
the traffic or c) support operators’ efforts to introduce new price plans for different services and
applications.
Cloud technologies and services will dominate at this year’s event with the unveiling of new
services for business and consumer markets.
Customer experience management will be everywhere at Barcelona this year as BSS/OSS generally
emerges as a key theme in next-generation network, multiple-service environments.
Informa Telecoms & Media’s top 10 picks for this year’s Mobile World Congress
1
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45
678
910
Operators and OTT
The threat posed by providers of over-the-top voice and messaging services became a reality for mobile
operators in 2011. While Dutch operator KPN was the most vocal – and seemingly the most badly-affected –
operator, a number of others have commented within the last six months on the reduction in SMS revenues
and traffic as a result of users migrating to other messaging services such as What’sApp and iMessage.
At last year’s show, Europe’s “G5” group of operators – Telefonica, Vodafone, France Telecom, Deutsche
Telekom and Telecom Italia – announced their commitment to RCSe, a new standard for operators’ own IP
communications services.
This year we are expecting operators to announce the commercial launch of these services. For the
launches to be viable, we are expecting to see a number of handset manufacturers commit to supplying
RCS-enabled devices and for operators to offer them for free with specific mobile broadband price plans.
However, Informa Telecoms & Media does not believe that RCSe will be the only competitive response to the
popularity of IP communications services. An alternative approach is for operators to partner with the OTT players
themselves in the same way that operators, including 3, KDDI and Verizon, have partnered in the past with Skype.
Dario Talmesio, Principal AnalystArea of expertise: Business models, operators strategies, market positioning,
competitive monitoring, wholesale & MVNOs, retail strategies.
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @dariotalmesio
Informa estimates that every 10 percentage points increase in smartphone penetration could cost
Western European operators US$1.19 billion in voice and messaging revenues and US$306 million for
their Eastern European counterparts – between 0.5% and 0.6% of their service revenues from voice
and messaging.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
IM P2PSMS P2P
201620152014201320122011
Rev
enue
s (U
S$
bil.)
P2P SMS and IM revenues, 2011-2016
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
To download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Operators and mobile broadband
Managing the growth of data on their networks is the biggest single challenge facing operators today.
Informa Telecoms & Media is forecasting that traffic over cellular networks will grow by 62% per year over the
next five years. But the slowdown in revenue growth – numbers reported by operators over the last month
indicate that the telecoms service is flat in Europe – makes it difficult to for them to justify increases in capex.
Operators are exploring a whole range of different approaches for managing and monetizing data traffic.
Informa Telecoms & Media believes that this will be the biggest single trend coming out of the exhibition
floor with an explosion of solutions aimed at the operator community. They will come under the following
categories:
• Services and applications to enable the end users to understand and control their data usage.
• Deep packet inspection technologies to allow operators to gain visibility into traffic trends on their
networks.
• Initiatives from OEMs to manage data more efficiently.
• Charging, rating and billing solutions to allow operators to introduce more dynamic, flexible price
plans for data and value-added services.
• Offload techniques including CDNs, optimization and Wi-Fi.
Global mobile data traffic by service category 2011 and 2016 (MB mil.)
Service Category Totals 2011 2016
P2P Messaging 153,170 448,019
A2P Messaging 5,353 21,864
P2A Messaging 42 142
Music 134,077 1,524,696
Games 192,530 2,331,068
Images 1,126 3,546
Video/TV 272,149 5,986,223
Gambling 1,820 11,814
Internet 2,782,428 25,872,237
LBS 11,123 127,491
Social Networking 159,969 1,510,667
Mobile Payments/Banking 34 299
Applications 734,978 11,433,235
E-Publications 505 6,946
Note: Excludes Wi-Fi traffic. Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
Mark Newman, Chief Research OfficerArea of expertise: Operator business models
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @marknewman
Operators and ecosystems
Operators are increasingly at the mercy of vendors and eco-system owners which are dictating the
smartphone roadmap according to their own plans and business models. Operators have attempted on
a number of occasions to influence the design of devices through standardizing terminal software, mainly
APIs, but have failed to push their own agendas to key vendors who are not necessarily incentivized to
follow these agendas.
Informa Telecoms & Media believes that these new market dynamics could push operators to attempt to
regain more control over the device value-chain. The creation of one or more neutral platforms could help
them to achieve this goal and balance competition from alternative ecosystems. However, the challenge
here is to win the support of device vendors and apps developers which have less incentive to support
such initiatives.
We expect to see operators attempting to build on the Wholesale Applications Community (WAC) initiative
launched two years ago, potentially with the support of an open-source community. This will likely build
on WAC APIs and may also use the framework developed for RCSe – a new standard for operators’ own IP
communications services (see OTT and operators).
Malik Kamal-Saadi, Principal AnalystArea of expertise: Technology trends across mobile devices, networks,
content and services.
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @maliksaadi
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20162012
Blackb
erry O
S
(QnX
)
Apple
iOSx
Androi
d
Linux
Total
Micros
oft
Symbia
n
Mar
ket s
hare
(%)
10.9
18.9
50.2
2
8.39.65
14.7
56.3
3.7
20
0.4
Market share of handset shipments by OS, 2012 and 2016
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
To download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Smart devices and OS
The release of new smartphones will continue to dominate the Mobile World Congress. Informa Telecoms
& Media estimates that smartphone sales grew 53.5% in 2011 - led by the Android OS - finishing the year
with sales of 432 million, 34% of total mobile handset sales. Continued growth means that more than 1
billion people will have a smartphone by 2013.
The integration of LTE and NFC will be prevalent across all new smartphone and tablet launches this year. A
strong showing from Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE will be another feature of the event. Spanning both
smartphones and tablets, the OS ecosystem and verticalisation is becoming ever-more important, so expect
more from Microsoft at MWC12 following last year’s marketing invasion by Android’s “little green men”. Key
to success is a unified experience so also expect more devices showcasing the abilities of Android v4.0 Ice
Cream Sandwich.
The rise of the ‘super’ tablet will be a key theme at MWC as latest releases offer an improved performance
with multi-core processing power and faster reaction times on touchscreens. We will also see more
peripherals for tablets, mainly qwerty docking stations for improved battery life and usability. Also expect
more low-cost Android tablets from tier-2 OEMs.
Smartphone penetration (% of population), selected markets 2011 and 2016
2011 2016
Brazil 14.19 40.43
China 5.64 20.93
France 31.32 69.45
Germany 32.65 73.69
India 2.68 12.53
Indonesia 3.39 20.92
Italy 40.62 74.43
Japan 14.26 82.87
Mexico 7.79 29.44
Nigeria 2.71 13.64
Pakistan 0.53 4.85
Russia 17.91 42.25
Saudi Arabia 25.01 48.63
South Africa 17.00 46.32
Spain 45.35 70.58
Turkey 9.62 34.87
UK 40.61 72.96
US 39.67 68.80
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
David McQueen, Principal AnalystArea of expertise: Handset vendor strategies, device segmentation,
smartphones, broadband devices.
Email: [email protected]
Small cells and LTE
This year will mark the first Mobile World Congress where operators and vendors will be discussing their
experience with large scale, mass market LTE deployments. There are 51 commercial LTE networks globally
according to Informa Telecoms & Media, a number that is expected to more than double by end-2012.
Tier-1 and smaller infrastructure vendors will continue to announce more advanced and cost-efficient LTE
equipment, many of which will be in the form of small cells. Several vendors will now also actively include
Wi-Fi in their infrastructure and many will bundle their traditional cellular equipment with Carrier Wi-Fi
to allow traffic offload between the two technologies. Informa Telecoms & Media also expects a flurry of
activity around backhaul, where established and new entrants will announce faster technologies.
However, the largest trend of the show is likely to be Carrier Wi-Fi, as operators start to realize that the
technology is very complementary to LTE and can be used to offload indoor traffic while relieving outdoor
LTE cells for outdoor traffic. A variety of vendors will offer equipment that allow operators to enhance and
improve the Wi-Fi user experience and in some cases even control it.
Dimitris Mavrakis, Principal AnalystArea of expertise: IMS, mobile access network technologies, femtocells,
backhaul, network APIs.
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @dmavrakis
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
AfricaAmericasAsia PacificEurope: EasternEurope: WesternMiddle EastUS/Canada
201620152014201320122011
609.1
321.1
156.463.2
22.46.4
Sub
scrip
tions
(mil.
)
LTE subscriptions by region
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
To download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
OSS/BSS
OSS/BSS has increasingly moved center stage and this will be reflected in the attention paid to it in
Barcelona this year. LTE, LTE-Advanced and high-speed IP-based network infrastructure all require a new
generation of IT support systems and innovative business models to support them. Delivering service
innovation and business efficiencies will require a greater focus on policy-based online charging and more
complex billing and rating functionality, as well as customer experience and business intelligence.
Most of the major infrastructure vendors have been making customer experience announcements in
recent months, or at least rebranding existing solutions, and many plan to focus heavily on this theme in
Barcelona. NSN, for one, will be making much of its Customer Experience Management (CEM) strategy.
Meanwhile, Ericsson, which completed its Telcordia acquisition last month, is expected to flesh out some of
the details of its OSS/BSS strategy.
Managing multiple services effectively is incredibly complicated, involving a wide range of OSS/BSS, IT
and network elements. Furthermore, the dividing lines between these are becoming even more blurred
as vendors active in each of these domains move into each others spaces, as well as actively pursuing
managed services, outsourcing and hosting opportunities. ITM is forecasting CAGR of 14% for managed
OSS/BSS over the next five years.
Kris Szaniawski, Principal AnalystArea of expertise: Managed services, network vendor strategy.
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @kszaniawski
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201620152014201320122011
3.7
3.1
2.62.32.11.9
Rev
enue
(US
$ bi
l.)
Managed OSS/BSS revenue forecasts, 2011-2016
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
To download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Mobile content and services
There will be a lot of noise around m-commerce at MWC, and much of it will continue to revolve around
NFC. But the expectations for NFC will be more measured this year, as many issues continue to conspire
against the smooth rollout of mobile contactless technology and services. Alternative point-of-sale mobile
payment solutions from bright new start-ups such as DigiMo will be grabbing a larger share of the limelight
than in previous years. Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts that mobile payments and banking will make up
nearly a third of global mobile value-added revenues in 2016 – up from just below 10% in 2011.
Another hot topic of discussion will be the extent to which mobile advertising will be adding to or
deducting from the revenue of online advertising brands such as Google and Facebook. Google’s latest
financial results would indicate the latter is the case. After years of promising higher returns than online
advertising, it looks as if mobile advertising might be under-delivering. Apple certainly overestimated
how much it could charge brands for campaigns on its in-app advertising service iAd. But as e-commerce
extends further into mobile, the more attractive mobile will become to advertisers.
Also at the show, it will be hard to get away from the numerous vendors peddling their latest wares for
connecting mobile devices to TVs, delivering over-the-top video to multiple screens and enabling mobile
interaction with TV content. Informa projects that video streaming will hog a third of data traffic generated
by mobile-phone users globally in 2016, but just 3% of mobile VAS revenues.
Guillermo Escofet, Senior AnalystArea of expertise: Mobile entertainment (music, games, TV & video),
the mobile Web, application stores, location-based services, mobile advertising,
mobile payments, social-networking.
Email: [email protected]
2.5%1.8%
1.9%2.7%
2.7%3.6%
6.6%
9.5%
16.3%21.1%
31.5%
Other Gambling Social networking Video/TVLBS (personal navigation)E-publicationsImagesMobile payments/bankingGamesMusicA2P/P2A messaging
2011
9.5%1.5%
1.6%2.9%
3.3%
3.5%
6.5%
9.0%
14.5%19.8%
27.9%
2016Revenue: US$41.5 bil. Revenue: US$132.1 bil.
Global mobile VAS revenues
Note: Figures exclude advertising and enterprise VAS. Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
To download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
M2M
M2M will move center stage at this year’s Mobile World Congress and will feature prominently in
announcements from the Tier-1 operator and vendor community.
This will be the first year that the leading wireless infrastructure vendors are able to demonstrate a strong
capability in service-management platforms – that part of an M2M solution that allows a service provider
to offer bespoke rates and provide remote monitoring and management. Until now, operators have either
developed such platforms in-house or have used specialized M2M technology providers.
Healthcare, automotive and security are the three M2M verticals that will feature most prominently at
Barcelona this year. Connected cars and homes have been features of previous years’ events but this year
could see the emergence of viable business models and contracts from automotive OEMs.
Jamie Moss, Senior AnalystArea of expertise: Machine-to-machine (M2M), location-based services,
mobile Internet.
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @jamie_j_moss
M2M revenuedistribution
Business intelligence
Service level management
Professional servicesConnectivity
Decision support, reports and alerts,analytics
Security, demand response, performance management
Consulting, integration,software development
Communications services,associated communications hardware
2012 2015
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
Future value shift in M2M communications
To download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Connected home
Smartphones have quickly become as much of a feature of the connected home as Wi-Fi-enabled video
consumption devices and controllers for connected devices such as smart TVs.
Operators are now keen to integrate smartphones further into their connected-home strategies. But to do
so they need new Wi-Fi standards to resolve some of the technical demands caused by the proliferation
of Wi-Fi enabled devices. And in terms of multi-screen strategies, operators are still trying to figure out
precisely what sort of services and functionalities they can offer.
Mobile devices are also playing a wider role in the home with applications that replace the traditional
remote control for smart TVs. They are also enabling digital music to break out of the PC and go multiroom,
acting as a control for devices including Sonos and Apple’s Airplay. But there are still big questions as to
whether the role of smartphones in the connected home is to increase, what are the best practices for
control apps, and, in the long run, whether any of the major platforms will have an advantage over any of
the others.
Andrew Ladbrook, Senior AnalystArea of expertise: Connected home devices, connected home technologies,
CE manufacturer’s strategies in the home.
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @AndrewLadbrook
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Inst
alle
d de
vice
s (b
il.)
Media Streaming devicesHybrid set-top boxGames consoleConnected Blu-ray playersConnected TV
201620152014201320122011
1,828
1,398
1,037
742
508338
Top-line connected device installed base
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
To download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Mobile health
Connected Health is the most prominent of the vertical sectors at Mobile World Congress 2012, with
presentations from emerging and developed markets scheduled throughout the show.
Healthcare plays to the strengths of telecoms operators, requiring secure connectivity, high bandwidth
for images, cloud-based service delivery, mobility and collaboration solutions. An industry-wide global
survey conducted by Informa Telecoms & Media in late 2011 revealed that 24% of communications service
providers are actively targeting the healthcare sector for top-line growth. But while traditional networking
and IT are well established, mobile health applications are still searching for acceptance and scale.
Telehealth and telecare solutions are enablers of transformation in healthcare delivery, promising to slash
the cost of chronic disease management and long-term social care. But formidable regulatory and cultural
barriers create uncertain market conditions in many countries. The cost of applications development and
rigorous testing are an additional challenge for service providers.
Sheridan Nye, Senior AnalystArea of expertise: M2M, communications in transport, energy,
health and public safety
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @sheridannye
Selected telehealth & telecare services
Communications service provider Brand name Service
Telecom Italia Home Doctor In-home monitoring of patients with chronic disease
Telefonica Rehabitic Remote monitoring of patient's physio-therapy programme
AT&T mHealth Manager Home monitoring of diabetes (pilot)
Sprint (with American TeleCare, Inc) ATI Remote consultations
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
Cloud
This year, the GSMA’s prestigious Global Mobile Awards inaugurate a Best Cloud Technology category.
As a judge for this industry accolade, Informa Telecoms & Media can testify to the cloud’s extraordinary
innovative power viewed from the entries received.
Informa will be looking for cloud enablement vendors in Barcelona to support operators in their efforts to:
• Secure core income: Cloud services must drive usage of broadband networks.
• Boost customer loyalty: Cloud services must help entice customers to stay loyal.
• Cut costs: Cloud services must reduce operators’ operational costs.
Informa’s Telecom Cloud Monitor, which tracks more than 120 operators, shows that 170 cloud services
were launched in 2011.
Camille Mendler, Principal AnalystArea of expertise: Managed services, cloud computing, Ethernet, partnering
and competitive analysis.
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @cmendler
Cloud services launched by type Customer segments targetedin service launches
Other30%
Security9%
Business apps suite14%
Unified communicationsand collaboration15%
Storage, back upand restore16%
IaaS18%
Consumers5%
Vertical industries10%
Enterprises41%
SMEs44%
Telecom cloud service launches in 2011
Note: n=170 new services launched in 2011Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
To download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
All analysts featured in this fact pack and those listed below will be attending this year’s event.
Gareth Sims, Head of Forecasting
Area of expertise: Strategic business modelling, Traffic forecasting, Future network investment analysis, Customer lifetime valueEmail: [email protected]: @gsims75
Andy Castonguay, Principal Analyst
Area of expertise: Handset vendor and operator strategies, mobile device retail and distribution strategies, mobile transactions ecosystem, M2M business strategies, application development ecosystem.Email: [email protected]
Julian Bright, Senior Analyst
Area of expertise: Next-generation mobile networks and operator strategy, mobile broadband, WiMAX.Email: julian.bright @informa.comTwitter: @julianbright
Julio Puschel, Principal Analyst
Area of expertise: Mobile operator strategies, LTE, convergence, Customer loyalty and experience management, mobile broadband, off-loading strategies, retail, wholesale.Email: [email protected]: @jpuschel
Nick Jotischky, Principal Analyst
Area of expertise: MEA/APAC regional trends, emerging market innovation, mobile operator strategies, regional mobile data services, connecting rural communities.Email: [email protected]
Pamela Clark-Dickson, Senior Analyst
Area of expertise: Mobile messaging, Mobile Internet and mobile enterpriseEmail: [email protected]: @PamelaC_D
Stephen Wilson, Senior Analyst
Area of expertise: Broadband, cable and IPTV markets of Central/Eastern EuropeEmail: [email protected]
Panos Loukos, Senior Analyst
Area of expertise: Mobile operator strategiesEmail: [email protected]
Thomas Wehmeier, Principal Analyst
Area of expertise: Future voice and data pricing strategies, Yield management, Customer economics and profitability, Profitable smartphone strategies for operators, LTE launch strategies, Wi-Fi business modelsEmail: [email protected]: @twehmeier