information 1 g406, regulation, ch. 8 eric rasmusen, [email protected]@indiana.edu...
TRANSCRIPT
An Overvalued Product2
A Worthless Product3
A Harmful Product4
An Overvalued Product with Upward Sloping Supply
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OxyElite Pro6
This drug is bannedfor athletes. It killed two soldiers.
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OxyElite Pro Close-up
Homeopathic Medicine 8
“As Weight Loss XL amounts to just one fluid ounce to last you 30 days, you are essentially putting a drop under your tongue three times a day which contains little bits of:
Antimony, Honey bee (yes, ground-up honey bee)Pepper extract, BladderwrackBedstraw extract, Garcinia hanburyiWitch hazel, Dried sheep/cow liverHistamine dihydrochloride,Strychnine nut extractDried sheep/cow pancreas, ParsleyNorthern whitecedar extract, Sheep thyroid glandGinger root”
New York Restaurant Grades9
But is an A posted in thewindow really a sign of a good restaurant?
A Private Solution: Civil Suits10
The plaintiff brings suit against the defendant, asking the court to make the defendant pay him damages.
It’s a tort case if the allegation is that the defendant injured the plaintiff, a contract case if it’s the he broke a contract.
Either side can demand a jury trial. The jury uses “preponderance of the evidence” as a standard rather than “beyond a reasonable doubt,” and it only needs a majority vote, not unanimity.
In rare cases, the jury can add punitive damages. These are only for intentional or reckless harm, in tort cases.
Liability Rules11
The negligence rule: Was the defendant ``negligent'' in causing or failing to prevent the injury, or was he taking enough care and should not be blamed for the harm?
The comparative negligence rule: How negligent was the defendant compared to the plaintiff? If both are equally negligent, then the plaintiff would pay only 50% compensation.
The strict liability rule: The defendant must pay if he or his product caused the harm, even if if he took all reasonable precautions.
Negligence vs. Strict Liability12
Suppose that a car company can choose from three levels of safety: spending $20 million for a low level, $50 million for a medium level, and $100 million for a high level. Consumer accident costs will be $150 million if the safety level is low, $80 million if it is medium, and $60 million if it is high.
What should the car company choose under a negligence standard? What should the car company choose under strict liability?
Solutions to Asymmetric Information
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1. Impose a minimum quality. Good if everyone would want to pay for at least that minimum quality. 2. Require truthfulness. This is is always good, though defining “truth” is hard sometimes. “Best hamburger in the world” is mere puffery. 3. Require disclosure. Vitamin lists on cereal boxes. 4. Offer government information. 5. Require all sellers to be tested, and disclose that information. 6. Impose a default minimum quality, but let consumers opt out. 7. Rely on seller reputation. 8. Teach people that they should be honest as a moral duty.
Solutions I14
1. Impose a minimum quality. Good if everyone would want to pay for at least that minimum quality. 2. Require truthfulness. This is is always good, though defining “truth” is hard sometimes. “Best hamburger in the world” is mere puffery. 3. Require disclosure. Vitamin lists on cereal boxes. 4. Offer government information. Cocaine: http://healthfinder.gov/News/Article.aspx?id=670088
Solutions II15
5. Require all sellers to be tested, and disclose that information. http://www.safercar.gov/Vehicle+Shoppers/5-Star+Safety+Ratings/2011-Newer+Vehicles
6. Impose a default minimum quality, but let consumers opt out. See the pictures at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bumper_(automobile)
Solutions III16
7. Rely on seller reputation. Reputation helps cure the temptation to offer low quality. A seller with good reputation can charge more than marginal cost and make an economic profit. If he does, he earns positive economic profits which are a “hostage” that dies if he ever deviates to low quality.
The need for reputation makes it hard to enter such a market. Reputation therefore does not solve the problem completely.
Solutions IV17
8. Teach people that they should be honest as a moral duty. “The taste for well-being is the prominent and indelible feature of democratic times....The chief concern of religion is to purify, to regulate, and to restrain the excessive and exclusive taste for well-being that men feel in periods of equality; but it would be an error to attempt to overcome it completely or to eradicate it. Men cannot be cured of the love of riches, but they may be persuaded to enrich themselves by none but honest means.” de Tocqueville, Democracy in America http://xroads.virginia.edu/~Hyper/DETOC/ch1_05.htm
A Second Market Failure:Processing Information Badly
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You can fool some of the people all of the time;
you can fool all of the people some of the time,
but you can never fool all of the people all of the time.
The Muller-Lyer Illusion19
106 Visual Phenomena & Optical Illusions by Michael Bach
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http://www.michaelbach.de/ot/
Anchoring
1. Write down some color of the clothing you are currently wearing.2. Write down your mother’s first name. 3. Write down the last two digits of your social security number. 4. Write down your estimate of the age of my relative who is named Ross. See http:/rasmusen.org/g406/experiment.xls
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Anchoring22
MIT's Professor Ariely conducted a mock auction for chocolate with his MBA students. First, students had to write down the last two digits of their Social Security num- bers. Next, they submitted their bids. The half of the group with higher two-digit numbers submitted bids from 60 to 120 percent higher.
The Representativeness (or “Availability”) Heuristic
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Below is a description of Steve, a person chosen at random from the U.S. population. What occupation is Steve in--- farmer, doctor, salesman, or librarian? What is the probability he is a librarian?
“Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but with little interest in people, or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for structure, and a passion for detail.”
Employment24
Librarians: 160,000. Salesmen (wholesale and manufacturing): 2 million. Farmers: 1.2 million.Doctors: 660,000.
“Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but with little interest in people, or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for structure, and a passion for detail.”
The Disjunction Fallacy
Which are more common in the English language:
1. Words ending in “ing”2. Words ending in “z”3. Words ending in “g”
(Also: The Decoy Technique)
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How Scared Should You Be ifYour Cancer Test Says “Cancer”?
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Suppose that a cancer test is 90% accurate, in the sense that if someone has cancer he will test positive (meaning the chemical does change color) with 90% probability, but in the population only 2% of people have cancer. If someone does not have cancer, the test is 80% accurate and the chemical will not change color. Use Bayes’s Rule:
Nudging: Nationwide Mutual27
Around 74% of Nationwide employees were enrolling each yea in 401-k programs.
In 2007, the company changed its policy. Enrollment was still voluntary, but each employee was automatically enrolled, and had to pro-actively ask to be removed. Moreover, each year the employee contribution would rise unless the employee objected. Just 6% of employees still opted out of the program, but the enrollment rate had increased to 94%.
A Nudge Tactic28
Cigarette Warning Labels29
Cigarette Warning Label Requirement Struck Down
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It was struck down as violating the 1st Amendment, being compelled speech that goes beyond just listing facts. (DC case)
Other of the proposed labels are too gruesome for me to show here.
But today (March 20, 2012) the 6th Circuit appeals court ruled them constitutional. (Kentucky case). When different federal courts disagree, the Supreme Court has to decide points of law.
The government decided to give up on the labels.
Random Sequences31
http:/rasmusen.org/g406/random-sequence.xls
Do men like to gamble more than women do?
Are gamblers overconfident, or just risk-loving?
Two Types of Error
False Positive: the FDA says a drug should be approved, but it is unsafe.
False Negative: the FDA says a drug should not be approved, but it is safe.
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Mill: Higher Pleasures
[Of the higher pleasures] “Now it is an unquestionable fact that those who are equally acquainted with, and equally capable of appreciating and enjoying, both, do give a most marked preference to the manner of existence which employs their higher faculties.”
(John Stuart Mill, 1800’s utilitarian and writer of the leading economics text of the time)
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Mill: Happiness vs. Contentment
“Whoever supposes that this preference takes place at a sacrifice of happiness- that the superior being, in anything like equal circumstances, is not happier than the inferior- confounds the two very different ideas, of happiness, and content. It is indisputable that the being whose capacities of enjoyment are low, has the greatest chance of having them fully satised; and a highly endowed being will always feel that any happiness which he can look for, as the world is constituted, is imperfect.”
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Mill: Socrates and Swine “But he can learn to bear its imperfections, if they are at all bearable; and they will not make him envy the being who is indeed unconscious of the imperfections, but only because he feels not at all the good which those imperfections qualify. It is better to be a human being dissatisfied than a pig satisfied; “
Better to be Socrates dissatisfied than a fool satisfied. “And if the fool, or the pig, are of a different opinion, it is because they only know their own side of the question. The other party to the comparison knows both sides.”
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Info Is Not Enough: Mushrooms
“ I survived the “Destroying Angel” ”
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BEPP Majors How high is the ceiling of this room?
1. Remember an answer.
2. Say “I don’t know”.
3. Figure out an answer using several steps.
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Obamacare: Pro “Rather than apologizing for these cancellations, [the administration] should be bragging about them.... Imagine a new law enacted to promote food purity. As it is being debated, you are told ‘if you like what you eat, you can keep on eating it.’ The new law takes effect, and one day you find that the market no longer carries certain foods you have been buying... [which] included elements found to be bad for your health. The pure food act barred their use.
Obamacare is analogous.... It bars certain common practices of insurance companies that most people find unacceptable at best, outrageous at worst... Currently available insurance plans that include such practices will not be allowed on the market.”
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Obamacare: Con “Suppose BHO Insurance Co. decides it wants to corner its state's market in automobile coverage. It begins an aggressive ad campaign offering a too-good-to-be-true deal: Sign up with us, and we'll give you better coverage at lower premiums. We're so sure you'll love our deal that if you like the terms of your existing policy, you'll be able to keep them--GUARANTEED!
The ad campaign, with the company's charismatic president acting as pitchman, is a smashing success. The competing companies lose so much business that they declare bankruptcy or are acquired by BHO. But BHO's policies are more expensive, and they include "comprehensive" coverage most customers neither need nor want. Take it or leave it, the company says, reneging on its guarantee in the knowledge that state law requires cars to be insured before they can be driven on public streets.”
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