Information on NECD and Gothenburg Protocol

revisions

Eduard DameDG Environment European

CommissionEnergy & Environment

Items

Revision NECD Projections under Gothenburg

Protocol Long term objectives Revision Gothenburg Protocol PRIMES baseline

Items

Revision NEC Directive will not be proposed by current College of Commissioners

New College will decide how to proceed further

Preparatory work could of use for revision of Gothenburg Protocol

NECD Projections

Horizon for emission projections in NEC Directive is 2010. No EU-legal basis for Member States to submit emission projections with a horizon beyond 2010.

GP/HM/POP Projections

EB-decision 2008/16

Approves the decision by the EMEP Steering Body at its thirty-second session that, in addition to the (annual update of the) emission projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020 as specified in decision 2005/1, Parties within the geographical scope of EMEP shall also report their data on emission projections for 2030 and longer-term projections if available (for example, 2050), in view of the analysis of the links between air pollution and climate change

Long-term objectives

TFIAM - Workshop 5-6 March 2009http://iiasa.ac.at/rains/meetings/Aspiration2050/Presentations.html

WGSR 20 – 23 April 2009 invited relevant TF’s and EP’s to continue working on the issue of long term objectives.

Result also interesting for future NECD-revision

Revision Gothenburg Protocol

Article 3, paragraph [new number]

1. Each Party shall: prepare and update:

annually emission inventories for the air pollutants listed in […]

biannually emission projections for the air pollutants listed in [ …]

annually draw up an informative inventory report containing detailed information on methodologies used in the preparations of their emission inventories and emission projections.

2. Parties shall report their emission inventories, emissionprojections and inventory reports in accordance with thereporting requirements set out in Article 7.

Revision Gothenburg Protocol

Article 7, paragraph 1b

Each Party within the geographical cope of EMEP shall report […] the following information:

[..] Data on projections emissions. an inventory report containing detailed information on

reported emission inventories and emission projections;

With regard to (i) to (iv) Parties shall use the units, the methodologies, the temporal and spatial resolution, time

horizons and the reporting formats; respect the reporting deadlines to be determined by the Steering Body of EMEP and approved by the Parties present at a session of the Executive Body as

"Guidelines for Reporting Emissions Data under the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution".

PRIMES baseline

PRIMES 2007 baseline was used for NECD-revision

Work for PRIMES 2009 is ongoing

Can be used for NECD revision and for Gothenburg Protocol (gap filling in national projections or replace national projections for EU-27)

Process of consultation

31 March 2009: meeting of MS energy economists to discuss major assumptions of new energy baseline

25 April 2009: comments invited from MS experts on the major assumptions for their country

May-June 2009: draft results (in terms of energy use) per MS available Consultation with MS on country results Finalization/publication results (2007baseline://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transport/

figures/trends_2030_update_2007/energy_transport_trends_2030_update_2007_en.pdf)

July 2009 and beyond Use of results for policy analysis

Contents of consultation so far

Macroeconomic assumptions per country GDP growth rates (lower than for 2007

baseline) Population (higher than for 2007 baseline) Valued added for 22 sectors (10 energy-

intensive sectors) (World) energy prices up to 2030 Overview of major energy investments

per MS (questionnaire): CCS, hydro, other RES, nuclear and infrastructure.

Procedure

Consultation: input coordinated with MS and to be send to DGTREN (Mrs Livia Vasakova)

Ask Ger Klaassen (DGENV, C5): gerardus.klaassen@ec.europa.eu for list of energy economic experts for your MS to contact (in as far as not done already)