Informational Informational Cohort Rate Cohort Rate 2007-2007-

0808

Presented by Lorene NakamuraPresented by Lorene Nakamura(503) 947-5831(503) 947-5831

Lorene.Nakamura@state.or.usLorene.Nakamura@state.or.us

Presentation PurposePresentation Purpose

• This presentation is intended to provide guidance regarding the 2007-08 Informational Cohort to be sent to districts in early June 2009.

ReminderReminder

• This presentation is only regarding the 0708 Informational Cohort. A slightly different methodology will be used for the 0809 Cohort and some of the categories will change.

What is the Cohort Rate?What is the Cohort Rate?

• The Cohort Rate tracks the outcome of students over the course of 4 years starting with their first year in high school

• Every student identified as belonging to a cohort group will be attributed a final outcome at the end of the 4 year period

Why are we switching Why are we switching methods?methods?

• Federal Law• A better reflection of true

outcomes

What is the fundamental What is the fundamental difference between the currently difference between the currently

published graduation rate and the published graduation rate and the new Cohort Graduation Rate?new Cohort Graduation Rate?

• The currently published graduation rate did not include GED’s in the denominator. The new Cohort Rate does.

• The currently published graduation rate included all students in grades 9-12 during a single year. The new Cohort Rate includes a single group of students over the course of 4 years.

• In the new Cohort Rate, any student represented in the numerator is also represented in the denominator.

When will it roll out?When will it roll out?• The 0708 Informational Cohort Rate will be

provided to districts in June 2009.• During the Summer 2009, we will submit for

approval from the US Department of Education

• Also during the Summer 2009, we will begin data cleanup for the 0809 cohort

• 2008-09 Cohort rate will be reported in Spring 2010

• 2008-09 Cohort rate will be used in Fall 2010 for AYP determination

StepsSteps

• Determine which students belong to the cohort group

• Evaluate the student’s final outcome• Evaluate which institution will

receive credit for that outcome

Who is in the Cohort Who is in the Cohort Group?Group?

Who is included?Who is included?

• The unadjusted cohort is comprised of any student, enrolled in an Oregon public school by the end of the 2007-08 school year, who first entered high school in 2004-05 in any school inside or outside Oregon.

• The adjusted cohort is comprised of the unadjusted cohort minus students who died, entered the home schooling system, or transferred out to a diploma granting institution outside the Oregon Public Education system as their final high school educational setting.

First year in high school First year in high school ……

Issues encountered• Grade level discrepancies between

records within one collection and across collections during the same year

• Merged records that were probably actually different students

• Unclear guidance in the past as to the definitions of P1, P2, TR, AE, and GE

Grade Level Evaluation Grade Level Evaluation ProcessProcess

Combine the ADM and Membership collections for 5 years into one collection with distinct records for SSID, enrolled grade, and year then adjust for merged SSID’s. At this point, enrolled institution is irrelevant.• Students whose records indicated the same grade level for all records in a given year would have only one record for that year indicating that grade level.• Students whose records indicated multiple grade levels in a single year would have multiple records for that year but only one for each grade level indicated.

Grade Level Evaluation Grade Level Evaluation ProcessProcess

For the purposes of cohort determination:Year 0 - 8th grade year (or most recent pre-high school grade)Year 1 - 9th grade year (or their first year in high school)Year 2 - 10th grade yearYear 3 - 11th grade yearYear 4 - 12th grade year (or fourth year in high school, year expected to graduate)Year 5 - the year after the student was expected to graduate.

The next slide flowcharts the 0809 Unadjusted Cohort. The 0708 Informational Cohort does not include Year 0 and there has been no manual determinations.

Year 0 (2004-05)

Pre-High School

Year 1 (2005-06)

9th Grade

Year 2 (2006-07)

10th Grade

Year 3 (2007-08)

11th Grade

Year 4 (2008-09)

12th Grade

Cohort

Year 0students not in HS

All records areeither 9th grade or 9th grade and US

Year 1 studentswith at least one

9th grade record butalso another gradelevel that is not US.

Continue to evaluatein Year 2.

Students who do notexist in OR Pub Schlin Year 0 but have

at least one 9th grade

record in Year 1

All records areeither 10th grade or 10th grade and US

All records areeither 11th grade or 11th grade and US

All records areeither 12th grade or 12th grade and US

Students who do notexist in OR Pub Schl

in Years 0-1 butHave at least one10th grade record

in Year 2

Students who do notexist in OR Pub Schl

in Years 0-2 butHave at least one11th grade record

in Year 3

Students who do notexist in OR Pub Schl

in Years 0-3 butHave at least one12th grade record

in Year 4

Year 2 studentswith at least one

10th grade record butalso another gradelevel that is not US.

Continue to evaluatein Year 3.

Unresolved studentsfrom previous years.Continue to evaluate

In Year 3.

Year 3 studentswith at least one

11th grade record butalso another gradelevel that is not US.

Continue to evaluatein Year 4.

Man

ual D

etermin

ation

Unresolved studentsfrom previous years.Continue to evaluate

In Year 4.

Year 4 studentswith at least one

12h grade record butalso another gradelevel that is not US.

Continue toManual Determination.

Unresolved studentsfrom previous years.

Continue toManual Determination.

2008-09 Unadjusted

Cohort

ManuallyDeterminedin Cohort

Holding

Unable toDetermine

US stands for Ungraded Secondary

Additional 0809 Additional 0809 ModificationsModifications

Students who are in Oregon Public School in Year 0 as an Elementary or Middle School Student but appear fully in a Secondary grade level during Year 1, will be included in the cohort. This is to capture students who skip the 9th grade.

OutcomesOutcomes

For the 2007-08 Unadjusted For the 2007-08 Unadjusted Cohort, evaluate Student’s Cohort, evaluate Student’s

Records over 4 yearsRecords over 4 years• Create a Combined Collection by

extracting all the records for students in the Unadjusted Cohort that occurred in Years 1-4 from the following collections: ADM, Membership, Early Leavers, and High School Completers. Also include records from Fall Membership and 2nd Qtr ADM of Year 5 (if they exist).

• Then for each student, extract and categorize the dates of their most recent events.

2007-08 Cohort 2007-08 Cohort CategoriesCategories• Graduates

• Drop-outs• Complementary (non-graduates)

– Modified Diploma– GED– Adult HS Diploma

• Other non-graduates– Alternate Credential or No Diploma **– Continuing Enrollment in 0809– Non-Graduate, Not Continuing Enrollment

• Transfer Outs– Inferred Transfer Out **– Non-Dropout Leavers– Honorary Diploma (foreign exchange)

**These categories only exist for the 0708 cohort, they will not exist in the 0809 cohort and beyond.

The Combined CollectionThe Combined CollectionEnrollment Records - Events that exist in the ADM or Membership.Complementary Records - Records from the Early Leavers collection with a withdrawal code of GED or Adult High School Diploma and records from the Completers Collection with a withdrawal code of Modified Diploma.Dropout Records - Records from the Early Leavers Collection with a withdrawal code indicating a “no show” or a school year withdrawal (withdrawal codes 06, 07, 08).Non-Dropout Records - Records from the Early Leavers Collection with a withdrawal code indicating Home Schooling or Deceased (withdrawal codes 02 or 03).

““Graduate” OutcomeGraduate” Outcome

A student will be counted as a “Graduate” if:• The student’s most recent event in the Combined Collection is a Regular High School Diploma OR• The student has a Regular High School Diploma event as their most recent Completer event and their most recent Enrollment event was no more than 30 days after the diploma event.

** Enrollment records are those from ADM or Membership collections

““Dropout” OutcomeDropout” Outcome

A student will be counted as a “Dropout” if:• The student’s most recent event in the Combined Collection is a dropout record OR• The student’s most recent event in Completers/Leavers was a dropout record and it occurred no more than 30 days prior to the most recent Enrollment event*In 0708 and prior collections, those coded as withdrawal code 06, 07, or 08 will be considered dropout records.** Enrollment records are those from ADM or Membership collections

““Modified Diploma” Modified Diploma” OutcomeOutcome

A student will be counted as a “Modified Diploma” if:• The student does not have a validated Regular High School Diploma record in the combined collection but they do have a Modified Diploma record.

The student will be counted as a “Modified Diploma” even if they continue enrollment and subsequently drop out at a later date. However, they could count as a Regular HS Diploma in a 5 year rate (if approved) if they continue and receive a Regular HS Diploma in the 5th year.

““GED” OutcomeGED” Outcome

A student will be counted as a “GED” if:• The student does not have a validated Regular High School Diploma or a Modified Diploma record in the Combined Collection but they do have a GED record.

The student will be counted as a “GED” even if they continue enrollment and subsequently drop out at a later date. However, they could count as a Regular HS Diploma in a 5 year rate (if approved) if they continue and receive a Regular HS Diploma in the 5th year.

““Adult HS Diploma” Adult HS Diploma” OutcomeOutcome

A student will be counted as an “Adult HS Diploma” if:• The student does not have a validated Regular High School Diploma, Modified Diploma, or GED record in the Combined Collection but they do have an Adult HS Diploma record.

The student will be counted as an “Adult HS Diploma” even if they continue enrollment and subsequently drop out at a later date. However, they could count as a Regular HS Diploma in a 5 year rate (if approved) if they continue and receive a Regular HS Diploma in the 5th year.

““Continuing Enrollment in Continuing Enrollment in 0809” Outcome0809” Outcome

A student will be counted as “Continuing Enrollment” if:• They do not have a validated Regular High School Diploma, Modified Diploma, GED, or Adult HS Diploma record and they do have Enrollment records in 2008-09 Fall Membership and/or 2nd Qtr ADM.

““Not Continuing Enrollment Not Continuing Enrollment Non-Graduate” OutcomeNon-Graduate” Outcome

A student will be counted as “Not Continuing Enrollment, Non-Graduate” if:•They do not have a validated Regular HS Diploma, Modified Diploma, GED, or Adult HS Diploma record AND •They do not have Enrollment records in 2008-09 Fall Membership and/or 2nd Qtr ADM AND•The student’s most recent event in Completers/Leavers was Withdrawal Code 1 (Withdrawn to a program– In a juvenile detention facility, or in a mental health, substance abuse, or shelter care program) and it occurred no more than 30 days prior to the most recent Enrollment event or, if the student’s most recent Enrollment event was more than 30 days after their most recent Leavers/Completers event, the enrollment occurred at a non-diploma granting JDEP or LTCT.

““Alternate Credential or No Alternate Credential or No Diploma” OutcomeDiploma” Outcome

A student will be counted as “Alternate Credential or No Diploma” if:• They do not have a validated Regular High School Diploma, Modified Diploma, GED, or Adult HS Diploma record AND •They do not have Enrollment records in 2008-09 Fall Membership and/or 2nd Qtr ADM AND•The student’s most recent event in Completers/Leavers was Withdrawal Code 13 (Alternate Credential or No Diploma).

““Inferred Transfer Out” Inferred Transfer Out” OutcomeOutcome

A student will be counted as “Inferred Transfer Out” if:• They do not have a validated Regular High School Diploma, Modified Diploma, GED, or Adult HS Diploma record AND • They do not have Enrollment records in 2008-09 Fall Membership and/or 2nd Qtr ADM AND• Their most recent event in the combined collection was an enrollment event that occurred more than 30 days after any Leaver/Completer events.These students will be removed from the denominator in the 0708 Cohort.In the 0809 Cohort, students whose final outcome appears in this category will need to be resolved by the districts. This category will not exist in the 0809 Cohort.

““Non-Dropout Leaver” Non-Dropout Leaver” OutcomeOutcome

A student will be counted as a “Non-Dropout Leaver” if:• They do not have a validated Regular High School Diploma, Modified Diploma, GED, or Adult HS Diploma record AND • They do not have Enrollment records in 2008-09 Fall Membership and/or 2nd Qtr ADM AND• The student’s most recent event in Completers/Leavers was a Non-Dropout record (Withdrawal code 02 (deceased) or code 03 (registered with an ESD for homeschooling)) and it occurred no more than 30 days prior to the most recent Enrollment event.

These students will be removed from the denominator in the 0708 cohort.

““Honorary Diploma” Honorary Diploma” OutcomeOutcome

A student will be counted as an “Honorary Diploma” if:• They do not have a validated Regular High School Diploma, Modified Diploma, GED, or Adult HS Diploma record AND • They do not have Enrollment records in 2008-09 Fall Membership and/or 2nd Qtr ADM AND• The student’s most recent event in Completers/Leavers was an Honorary Diploma record and it occurred no more than 30 days prior to the most recent Enrollment event.

The definition of Honorary Diploma is that it is granted to foreign exchange students. If a student’s final outcome is an Honorary Diploma then we can reasonably assume that they returned to their own country after receiving it. Therefore, these students will be removed from the denominator of the 0708 Cohort.

Institution Institution AssignmentAssignment

Resident or Attending?Resident or Attending?

• The Cohort rate will use The Cohort rate will use Resident Institutions onlyResident Institutions only

““Graduates”, “Dropouts”, “Non-Graduates”, “Dropouts”, “Non-Dropouts”, “Honorary”, and some Dropouts”, “Honorary”, and some “Not Continuing Enrollment, Non-“Not Continuing Enrollment, Non-

graduate”graduate”Students with final outcome of “Graduate”, “Dropout”, “Non-Dropout” or “Honorary Diploma” and students who received a final dispensation of “Not Continuing Enrollment, Non-Graduate” as a result of Withdrawal Code 01 will be attributed to the resident institution of the Leaver/Completer record that determined the final outcome.

““Modified Diplomas”, “GED’s”, “Adult Modified Diplomas”, “GED’s”, “Adult HS Diplomas”, “Alternate Credential HS Diplomas”, “Alternate Credential

or No Diploma”or No Diploma”Students with final outcomes of “Modified Diploma”, “GED”, “Adult HS Diploma” or “Alternate Credential or No Diploma” will be attributed to the resident institution of the most recent Enrollment record that existed in 2007-08 or prior unless the Leavers/Completers event that resulted in the final outcome occurred after the most recent enrollment event. In that case, the resident institution of the record that indicated the final outcome would receive the credit.

**In some cases the institution that will receive credit for these outcomes may not be the institution indicated on the Leaver/Completer record that resulted in the final dispensation. This is to reward dropout recovery programs for keeping students in school and working toward a regular high school diploma.

““Continuing Enrollment in Continuing Enrollment in 0809” and “Inferred 0809” and “Inferred

Transfer Out”Transfer Out”Students with a final outcome of

“Continuing Enrollment in 0809” or “Inferred Transfer Out” will be attributed to

the resident institution indicated on the most recent Enrollment record that existed

in 2007-08 or prior.

Final outcome in a non-Final outcome in a non-diploma granting JDEP or diploma granting JDEP or

LTCTLTCTStudents with a final outcome that occurs in a non-diploma granting JDEP or LTCT will

be attributed to the diploma granting institution indicated in the most recent

Enrollment record that existed in 2007-08 or prior.

Final outcome results in Final outcome results in two different institutionstwo different institutionsStudents with a final outcome that

occurs in two different institutions will be resolved by attributing the

outcome to the resident institution that received the most ADM.

Supplemental Supplemental InformationInformation

• Students who receive GED’s will reduce the graduation rate• Students must be enrolled in a High School to be reported as

Graduate. No more reporting diplomas at the district level.• ODE will assume students are non-graduates unless explicitly

told otherwise by districts• Real-time reporting is expected consistent with new

Cumulative ADM. There will no longer be a 1 year lag on reporting “no shows”

• Keeping students more than 4 years will affect the graduation rate unless US Dept of Ed approves an expanded rate for Oregon.

• Targets will be set and must increase over time. Potentially the median district performance will be the target. We are considering requiring a 2% increase each year up to 90%.

• Each student can have only one final outcome over their entire HS career.

• Alternative schools and charter schools will be treated the same as all other schools and districts.

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