Informed decision making for CSA: methodologies and data requirements

“Central Asia Climate Smart Agriculture Workshop”Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan – 12-14 July 2016

Aslihan ArslanNatural Resource Economist

Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN

1. SUSTAINABLY INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY

AND INCOME

2. ADAPTING AND BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

3. REDUCING AND/OR REMOVING GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS

WHERE POSSIBLE

How to operationalize the CSA pillars at country level?

Too Many Objectives?

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• Prioritizing the objectives of CSA depends on the role of agriculture in economy and society.

• In low income, highly agriculture-dependent economies, where CC impacts are estimated to be significant and negative, CSA approach to agricultural growth– prioritizes food security – incorporating necessary adaptation, and – capturing potential mitigation co-benefits

• Evidence base essential for prioritization

From knowledge to action at country level

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1.Building an evidence base

2.Developing/enhancing capacity

3.Building enabling institutional and policy frameworks

4.Facilitating policy coordination

5.Guiding investments & access to finance

The building blocks of the EPIC-CSA approach

Building an evidence base 1. Assessing the situation– What are actual and predicted CC impacts at

sub-national levels? – Which areas/farming systems and households

have highest exposure/sensitivity?– Which agricultural practices/livelihood strategies

best respond to improve productivity and resilience?

– What are the mitigation potentials?

1. Understand the enabling environment— What are barriers to adoption?

Analysis of exposure and sensitivity to climate risk in recent years

• Rainfall (1983-2015): Dekadal (10 days) rainfall data from Africa Rainfall Climatology v2 (ARC2) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA-CPC)

• Temperature (1989-2013): Dekadal avg, min & max temperatures of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

• Soil: Soil nutrient availability and soil pH levels from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD)

Data Sources

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Zambia: Rainfall variability by agro-ecological region (AER)

Zambia: change in onset of the rainy season1983-2012

Data sources:

• Large scale nationally representative agricultural household data (5,000-10,000 households)

• Institutional data at sub-national levels

• Combined with the above geo-referenced data

…to assess country priorities, e.g.:• Conservation agriculture & agro-forestry • Soil & water conservation• Livelihood diversification: crops, livestock, income • Safety nets and risk management• The role of agriculture as a driver of deforestation

Analysis of impacts of potential CSA interventions and barriers to adoption

The effects on productivity and its resilience across agricultural practices

Higher YieldsLower/Same Yields

Reduced probability of yield loss

Average climatic conditions

Legume intercropInorganic fertilizerImproved seed

Crop rotation

Inorganic fertilizerImproved seedTimely fertilizer access

Delayed onset of rainfall

Crop RotationImproved seedTimely fertilizer access

Inorganic fertilizer

Legume intercrop

Increased seasonal temperature

Legume intercropTimely fertilizer access

Improved seedInorganic fertilizer

Legume intercropTimely fertilizer

The effects of climate shocks on diversification…

and its impacts for income & resilience

Analysis of mitigation potentials

• Crops: Spatial models of soil carbon under various practices/systems

• Livestock: Identify options to decrease emissions

• Forestry: Identify main drivers of deforestation & options to decrease it

Barriers Enablers

Minimum soil disturbance

Low income Extension informationCollective actionRainfall variability

Legume intercropping

Low incomeDistance to district center

Extension informationLand TenureCollective actionRainfall variability

Crop Rotation Low income Extension information

Agro-Forestry Distance to district centerLabor costLow income

Tenure securityCollective actionDrought proneness

Improved seed

Uninsured riskDistance to district center

Extension information

Inorganic fertilizer

Uninsured riskLack of land tenureDistance to district center

Extension information

Barriers to/enablers of Adoption: Zambia & Malawi

Cost-Benefit Analysis • Need to analyze costs and benefits of

various options at various scales

• Detailed cost data is scarce but necessary

• Autonomous adoption can only be expected if benefits>costs

• Interventions can be better targeted to address the specific costs of adoption that may prevent adoption

• Support to Min of Agriculture representatives to attend UNFCCC negotiations

• Support to MSc and PhD students to work on CSA

• Develop & deliver country-specific CSA training material for agricultural extension frontline staff

• Facilitate continuous learning by webinars, online learning courses and exchange programmes

Capacity development

• CSA is an integrated approach to address food security, adaptation and mitigation

• Data & analysis needs are significant for proper design & targeting

• …but data & tools are increasingly available to assess three pillars for informed decision making

• Stakeholder involvement and capacity development are key for successful implementation of CSA approach

Summing up

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Thank you!

For more information, please visit:

www.fao.org/climatechangehttp://www.fao.org/climatechange/epic

or write to:aslihan.arslan@fao.org