infrastructure in the utica & northeast€¦ · •genscape • supply changes in the last...

© 2019, Genscape Incorporated. All rights [email protected] US: +1 502 583 3435 | EU: +31 20 524 4089

Infrastructure in the Utica & NortheastColette Breshears, Natural Gas & Infrastructure IntelligenceMarch 21, 2019

© 2017, Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.Infrastructure in the Utica & Northeast2

Agenda

• Genscape• Supply Changes in the last decade

• Build-out has permanently shifted supply/demand balances• What has this meant for the Northeast?

• Production constrained by pipelines – now in the past• Recent and current major projects• Ongoing challenges

• The Utica going forward


Genscape: Data and Intelligence for Global Commodity and Energy Markets

• Genscape’s analytical forecasting arm

• Founded in 2011, acquired by Genscape in April 2012

• Detailed 5-year Natural Gas, Oil and NGL Production forecasts for the U.S. and Canada

• Pushing boundaries in monitoring and inclusion of proprietary data

• Satellite imagery

• Plane flights & on-the-ground observations

Spring Rock Production Forward Analytics

Genscape is the source of independently measured oil storage volumes, pipeline flows, refinery operations, and power plant electricity output.

• Provides fundamentals-driven market intelligence

• Subscribers have access to critical market data- Cushing Volumes 48 hours before EIA data, 30-min flow updates and real-time alerts on key pipelines


Supply Basins, Historically

Wet Gas. Source: Spring Rock

Oil+10399

10

8

5

1

8

16

17

20

~61 Bcf/d on average

6

Winter 2008/2009 % Production

Percent Overall Production

Rockies 20

East Texas 17

Mid Continent 16

South Texas 10

Gulf of Mexico 9

Gulf Coast 8

Permian 8

San Juan 6

East 5

West 1


Percent Overall Production

East 33

Rockies 13

Permian 12

Mid Continent 11

Gulf Coast 9

South Texas 8

East Texas 8

Gulf of Mexico 3

San Juan 2

West 1

Supply Basins, Now

Oil+1039

83

9

33

1

12

11

8

13

~97 Bcf/d on average

2

Winter 2018/2019 % Productionprojected as of Feb19



Oil+1039

Supply Basins, Delta

+1.9-3.1

+4.2

+28.8

-.3

+7.4

+1.1

-3.3

+.1

~37 Bcf/d growth

-1.4

Delta 2008-2019Production Bcf/d


Rank 08/09

Rank 18/19 Basin Production

Change (Bcf)1 2 Rockies 0.12 7 E TX -3.33 4 Midcon 1.14 6 S TX 1.95 8 GOM -3.16 5 Gulf Coast 4.27 3 Permian 7.48 9 San Juan -1.49 1 East 28.8

10 10 West -0.3

© 2017, Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.Infrastructure in the Utica & Northeast7 © 2016, Genscape Incorporated. All rights [email protected] US: +1 502 583 3435 | EU: +31 20 524 4089

What has this meant for the Northeast?


Production Growth tied to Infrastructure Growth

Leidy Southeast

Lebanon West IIAIM

REX Z3 Expansion

Rover Phase 1AAtlantic Sunrise P1

Adair SW, Access South

Rover Phase 1BLeach XPress

Rover Phase 2

Atlantic Sunrise P2,NEXUS

WB XPress

Mountaineer/Gulf XPress

NE Supply Enhancement*,Mountain Valley (MVP)*

Buckeye XPress*,MMAP*

PennEast*

Influenced heavily by weather

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

28,000Ju

l-14

Sep-

14N

ov-1

4Ja

n-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5Se

p-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16M

ar-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep-

16N

ov-1

6Ja

n-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7Se

p-17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18M

ar-1

8M

ay-1

8Ju

l-18

Sep-

18N

ov-1

8Ja

n-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9Se

p-19

Nov

-19

Jan-

20M

ar-2

0M

ay-2

0Ju

l-20

Sep-

20N

ov-2

0

Incr

emen

tal M

Mcf

/d si

nce

mid

201

4

Production Forecast vs. Pipeline Expansions

Export, no demand Export + Demand Production Growth

callouts represent significant projects, not all projects*high risk for delay beyond date



- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000

Jun-

14A

ug-1

4O

ct-1

4D

ec-1

4Fe

b-15

Apr

-15

Jun-

15A

ug-1

5O

ct-1

5D

ec-1

5Fe

b-16

Apr

-16

Jun-

16A

ug-1

6O

ct-1

6D

ec-1

6Fe

b-17

Apr

-17

Jun-

17A

ug-1

7O

ct-1

7D

ec-1

7Fe

b-18

Apr

-18

Jun-

18A

ug-1

8O

ct-1

8D

ec-1

8Fe

b-19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19A

ug-1

9O

ct-1

9D

ec-1

9Fe

b-20

Apr

-20

Jun-

20A

ug-2

0O

ct-2

0D

ec-2

0Incr

emen

tal M

Mcf

/d s

ince

mid

201

4 West South via Ohio South via Atlantic Coast Canada East/Northeast

Infrastructure Shifts: Export by Corridor

West:7.6 Bcf/d

Grand Total:24.5 Bcf/d

Incremental Capacity2014 through 2020

MMcf/d


Northeast Export Infrastructure

NEXUS & TEAL (TETCO)Operating & OperatingIn Service: October 2018/November 2018Capacity: 1,500 MMcf/d (885 MMcf/d contracted)Shippers: Union Gas (150), Enbridge (150), Columbia Gas of Ohio (50), DTE Gas (75), DTE Electric (75), CNX (150), Noble (75), Chesapeake (200), uncontracted/unknown (565)

Rover (Phase 1 & Phase 2)Operating & OperatingIn Service: Sep 2017/ Q4 2017 / Q2 2018 / Q3 2018Capacity: 3,250 MMcf/d overallShippers: Ascent (1050), Antero (800), Range (400), Southwestern (200), Gulfport (150), EQT (150), Rice (100), Eclipse (100), EdgeMarc (260)

Atlantic Sunrise (TRANSCO)OperatingIn Service: October 6, 2018Capacity: 1,700 MMcf/d Shippers: Cabot (850), Chief O&G (420), Seneca Resources (190), Southern Company Services (60), Anadarko (44), Southwestern (44), WGL Midstream (44), Inflection Energy (26), MMGS (22)

Heavily Constrained



PennEast*Has Certificate Stated In Service: December 2020 Risk to stated date: Very High – concerted oppositionCapacity: 1,107 MMcf/d Shippers: New Jersey Natural Gas (180), PSEG Power (125), South Jersey Gas Co (105), Consolidated Edison Company of New York (100), Pivotal Utility Holdings (100), UGI (100), Cabot (150), Talen Energy (50), Enerplus (30), Warren Resources (15), NRG Rema (10)

Mountaineer XPress (TCO) & Gulf XPress (CGulf)OperatingIn Service: January – March 2019Capacity: 2,700 MMcf/d (MXP) & 860 MMcf/d (GXP)Shippers: MXP: Antero (800), Greylock (100) ; Kaiser Marketing (330), Equinor (120), SWN (500), THQ Marketing (250) GXP: Antero (183), Kaiser Marketing (330), Equinor (72), SWN (275)

WB XPress (TCO)Western: Operating / Eastern: OperatingStated In Service: Eastern Leg: November 1, 2018; Western Leg: October 9, 2018 Capacity: 1,300 MMcf/d (800 west, 500 east)Shippers: 100% subscribed: Antero (330 to East; 800 West), Noble, WGL

not export but will change regional flow dynamics*

Heavily Constrained

Project to Watch: Constitution



Mountain Valley (EQT)Has Certificate - Under Early ConstructionStated In Service: Late 2019 (EISD: December 2019+)Risk: High – persistent issues with construction, protestors, permit & legalCapacity: 2,000 MMcf/d (100% contracted)Shippers: EQT (1,290), WGL (200), Roanoke Gas (10), USG Properties Marcellus (250), Consolidated Edson (250)- Connects with TCO in WV; Transco in southern Virginia- No phases yet announced

Atlantic Coast (DTI)Has Certificate – Under Early ConstructionStated In Service: Late 2020 partial service & Early 2021 full (EISD agrees)Risk: Medium-High – ongoing permitting/legal issues, long scheduleCapacity: 1,500 MMcf/d (1,400 MMcf/d contracted); unknown partial service capShippers: Duke Energy Progress (452.75), Duke Energy Carolinas (272.25), Piedmont (160), VPSE(300), Public Service Company of North Carolina (100), Virginia Natural Gas Company (75), uncontracted (100)- Connects with TCO in WV; Transco in southern Virginia- Two phases planned, with Appalachian Trail sector lagging

Heavily Constrained

P1

P2

P1?

P2?P1


Continuing Challenges for Pipelines

• Expense• Long timelines• Legal action• Steel tariffs• Population centers

• Permitting• Federal: FERC, USACE• State: DEQ, DEP, etc• County:

• Township • City• Landowner

• Protest and Legal action• Construction

• Eminent Domain• Weather• Supplies• Protest and Legal action Source: FERC filings


Utica Looking Forward


10 Years of Ohio Production

Forecast as of early Feb 2019. Source: Spring Rock

.2 Bcf/d

7.3 Bcf/d

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MM

cf/d

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015


Upcoming Projects for the Utica Region

Project Name Pipeline Pipeline Corridor Status Stated Capacity Stated Start Date

UGS - Crawford M&R Station Rover Regional In-Service Request Submitted 350 3/1/2019Appalachian Lease Project (TEAL) Phase 2 TETCO West Under Early Construction 312 5/1/2019Eastern Panhandle Market Expansion Supply Lateral TCO South Atlantic Certificate Issued 48 5/1/2019H-320 Pipeline EQT South Ohio EA/EIS Issued 85 6/1/2019Line N Expansion - 2019 NFG Regional Under Early Construction 133 7/1/2019Sweden Valley DTI West EA/EIS Issued 120 11/1/2019Equitrans Expansion Project EQT Regional Under Late Construction 600 12/1/2019Mountain Valley Pipeline EQT South Atlantic Under Late Construction 2000 12/1/2019AquaTrans Power Plants Supply Laterals EQT South Ohio Announced 185 6/1/2020Line N Expansion - 2020 NFG Regional Open Season Completed 215 7/1/2020Buckeye Xpress TCO South Ohio Filed 275 11/1/2020Midwest Market Access Project (MMAP) ANR South Ohio Open Season Completed 225 11/1/2020DTI Supply Header Atlantic Coast East/Northeast Under Early Construction 1500 12/1/2020Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) - Full Service Atlantic Coast South Atlantic Under Early Construction 1500 3/1/2021West Loop Project DTI Regional In-Service Request Submitted 150 7/1/2021Central Corridor Pipeline Extension Duke LDC West Announced 168 9/1/2021FM 100 Modernization NFG Regional Pre-Filed 300 12/1/2021Brooke County Access EQT Regional Pre-Filed 140 6/1/2022


The Genscape Advantage


Eyes in the Sky

Above: TETCO Explosion Site Feb 2019Left: MXP November 2018


Range of Supporting Products

Contact Me:USALouisvilleGenscape, Inc.1140 Garvin PlaceLouisville, KY 40203

EuropeAmsterdamGenscape International, Inc.Damrak 20A1012 LH AmsterdamThe Netherlands

© 2017, Genscape Incorporated. All rights [email protected] US: +1 502 583 3435 | EU: +31 20 524 4089

Colette BreshearsNatural Gas & Infrastructure [email protected]: cbreshears

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Closing Slide

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infrastructure in the utica & northeast€¦ · •genscape • supply changes in the last...

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