ing fx talking

June 2012 FINANCIAL MARKETS RESEARCH

FX talkING ING’s view on the major bullish and bearish currency themes

FX 14 June 2012

Whatever the outcome of Greek elections it looks like any new government will try to re-negotiate the terms of its bail-out. This will not be easy and will be taking place at a time when Germany is also being asked to accede to banking and fiscal union. The ECB will have to help. Sell EUR into any rally.

ING FX forecasts USD/Majors (4 Jan 08=100)

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EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/GBP

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08 09 10 11 1260

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160JPY EURGBP

Stronger USD

1M 1.22 80 0.80 3M 1.18 81 0.78 6M 1.15 84 0.75 12M 1.20 90 0.77

EUR/CHF AUD/USD EUR/PLN

1M 1.20 0.98 4.43 3M 1.20 0.95 4.35 6M 1.20 0.92 4.26 12M 1.20 0.92 4.10

USD/RUB USD/BRL USD/CNY Source: Reuters, ING

1M 32.90 2.07 6.38

EM FX (4 Jan 08=100) 3M 33.80 2.05 6.40 6M 33.00 2.00 6.42

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180$/TRY $/BRL$/CNY €/PLN

Stronger EM FX

12M 32.10 1.90 6.40

Source: ING

FX performance

EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD EUR/NOK NZD/USD USD/CAD

%MoM -2.3 -0.6 -3.2 -1.0 0.3 2.0%YoY -12.2 -1.5 -4.6 -4.3 -4.1 5.0

EUR/HUF EUR/CZK USD/RUB USD/BRL USD/KRW USD/CNY

%MoM 1.8 0.8 6.8 4.4 1.2 0.8Source: Reuters, ING %YoY 11.6 5.8 16.5 29.6 7.4 -1.7

Source: Reuters, ING

FX Strategy Chris Turner Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy London +44 20 7767 1610 [email protected]

Tom Levinson Foreign Exchange Strategy London +44 20 7767 8057 [email protected]

View all our research on Bloomberg at ING5<GO>

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FX talkING June 2012

Developed markets EUR/USD

Assessing the chances of a short squeeze Current spot: 1.26

• Investors are clearly very short EUR ahead of major event risks over coming weeks. While a Syriza victory in the Greek election would be alarming, even such an outcome would probably still see a continuation of muddle-through policies – given that all the major Greek political parties are now intending to re-negotiate the memorandum with the Troika.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• Elsewhere, the Eurogroup meeting (21st) and the EU leaders summit (28th) could make progress on the Banking Union – which could again trigger the kind of short squeeze that EUR/USD and European equities enjoyed on the back of the ECB’s first LTRO in January.

• However, any EUR/USD rally should prove short-lived ahead of apossible July ECB rate cut and more aggressive liquidity measures in 3Q. An orderly EUR/USD decline to 1.15 remains our call.


ING forecasts (mkt fwd) 1M 1.22 (1.256) 3M 1.18 (1.257) 6M 1.15 (1.258) 12M 1.20 (1.262)

Chris Turner, London +44 20 7767 1610

USD/JPY

USD/JPY cheap, but needs a catalyst Current spot: 79.3

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• There were strong suggestions that the BoJ were ‘checking rates’ when USD/JPY fell below 78.00 at the start of June. Japanese authorities know that Washington frowns on their unilateral intervention – but it is a risk Tokyo is prepared to take to safeguard confidence after the Nikkei 225 fell 20% between April and May.

• With inflation very close to zero, the BoJ is struggling to deliver the negative real interest rates being employed in other major economies. Were the DPJ government to make progress on the consumption tax bill, employing a two-stage hike to 10% by 2015, the BoJ could embark on more aggressive policy, hitting the JPY.

• Fed policy looks unlikely to support USD/JPY much in the short term. No major policy changes are seen at the 20 June FOMC.


ING forecasts (mkt fwd) 1M 80 (79.24) 3M 81 (79.17) 6M 84 (79.04) 12M 90 (78.69)


GBP/USD

BoE ready to employ more QE? Current spot: 1.55

• Ever since the BoE’s May inflation report, speculation has been building that the BoE will pursue more QE. Its most recent purchases under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) peaked at £325bn in February. With the Eurozone crisis now dragging UK confidence indices lower, we look for the BoE to re-start APP at the 5 July MPC meeting. With the BoE moving and the Fed on hold, GBP/USD should remain pressured.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• GBP/USD also remains caught in the cross currents of the EUR/USD move. Speculative positioning is far lighter against GBP than the EUR, suggesting that GBP/USD is less susceptible to a short squeeze should EU politicians manage to outline a framework for a ‘master plan’ at the 28 June summit.

Source: Reuters, ING • 1.58/1.60 may prove the best case for the remainder of the year.



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EUR/JPY

Scope for marginal new lows Current spot: 99.6

• While European leaders may make some progress at summits over coming weeks, there is no quick fix to the European crisis. Greece may ultimately require another debt write-off (this time for the official sector) and the background for these discussions is aEurozone contracting at a 1.4% QoQ annualised rate in 2Q12.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• So there is no way to sound the ‘all clear’ on the crisis andEUR/JPY should stay vulnerable – primarily because Japan is a large net creditor after years of current account surpluses and repatriates its overseas assets in times of stress.

• We see scope for EUR/JPY to again fall close to 95 over the next three months. However, USD/JPY at 78 and EUR/JPY at 95 will trigger alarm bells in Tokyo, warning of verbal intervention and perhaps even the stealth FX intervention seen last November.




EUR/GBP

Corrective rally should prove short-lived Current spot: 0.81

• In terms of currency wars in the developed market space, we believe the BoE is one of the most active practitioners, trying to keep GBP weak to rebalance the economy in favour of the external sector. And another round of QE on 5 July will be an attempt to cheapen GBP again.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• However, the challenges facing the Eurozone are far larger than those facing the UK. Reserve diversification away from the EUR should prove a major theme over the next two years, with GBP weightings in reserve portfolios likely to be increased again, alongside currencies like AUD, CAD and also NOK and SEK.

• Long-term fair value for EUR/GBP is seen near 0.80. The need for a substantial EUR risk premium should see EUR/GBP trade 0.75.Source: Reuters, ING



EUR/CHF

Floor to hold Current spot: 1.20

• The SNB is showing no signs that it is prepared to let the 1.20 floor give way. The floor was first seriously tested in May, with the SNB forced to buy EUR50bn in its defence. However, the SNB can leave this intervention unsterilized since it is consistent with the SNB’s anti-deflationary policy. Only if inflation starts to riseand the SNB were to start paying potentially higher sterilization costs than it would earn on its FX reserves, would massive FX intervention turn into a major budgetary headache.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• Despite a strong CHF, the Swiss economy is actually doing quite well. The SNB recently revised its 2012 growth forecast above 1% and exports are yet to collapse.

• We see EUR/CHF flat-lining at 1.20 into 2013. Source: Reuters, ING



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EUR/NOK

NOK – Safe-haven rally vs oil price sell-off Current spot: 7.51

• NOK remains weaker than it was prior to Norges Bank’s rate cut to 1.50% in March. This keeps the pressure off the central bank to make policy changes at its 20 June meeting. With inflation low and EU17 uncertainty high it should maintain a projection for rates unchanged at 1.50% for the next twelve months.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• Activity in Norway is resilient with GDP growth this year above 2% set to be the highest within developed Europe. Norway’s forward looking PMI is comfortably in growth territory at 55.

• As anticipated, NOK resilience is impressive, remaining in a 7.50-7.65 range for three months. Brent oil at US$100/bbl argues for EUR/NOK above 7.80. NOK is a safe-haven, yet in extreme market turmoil could fall vs EUR due to a lack of liquidity. A more benign scenario of just weak EU17 growth could see EUR/NOK test 7.40.



Tom Levinson, London +44 20 7767 8057

EUR/SEK

SEK resilience underestimated Current spot: 8.84

• An abrupt break higher of EUR/SEK to 9.15 in mid-May, out of its prior five-month range, raised the possibility of a trend decline in SEK. However, the krona has since recovered, particularly in the aftermath of Spain’s bank bailout. Given the reaction to Spain’s deal is rather negative this underlines SEK’s safe-haven status.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• The Swedish economy is finely balanced. At 0.8% QoQ, 1Q GDP was double the Riksbank’s estimate, but the PMI is in contraction (ie, sub-50) for the first time since Dec. Although core inflation of just 0.9% YoY affords the Riksbank flexibility we doubt it will make a major policy alteration at its 4 July policy-meeting.

• SEK is historically rich. In an outright market collapse SEK’s limited liquidity might trump its safe-haven status (ie, EUR/SEK rises). But a more benign EU17 scenario can see EUR/SEK slide.




EUR/DKK

7.43 line in the sand Current spot: 7.43

• With EUR/DKK falling to record lows near 7.43, the Danish central bank returned to the market in May to intervene in FX markets for a first time in 2012. Intervention in May totalled DKK30bn, taking total FX reserves to DKK500bn.

7.397.407.417.427.437.447.457.467.477.48

Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan137.397.407.417.427.437.447.457.467.477.48

ING f'castMkt Fwds

• Having slowed but not reversed EUR/DKK’s decline, the central bank was forced to follow up with two surprise rate cuts (10bp on 24 May and 15bp on 31 May) taking its lending rate to just 0.25%. Historically Danish rate moves have tracked the ECB’s. No more.

• Denmark’s economy exited recession with a decent 1Q expansion of 0.3% QoQ, but the firm priority is halting the EUR/DKK decline. 7.43 is a line in the sand for the central bank but an unfavourableGreek election result would see this broken. For the first time the central bank has raised the possibility of negative interest rates.




4


USD/CAD

CAD resilience supported by BoC mild hawkish stance Current spot: 1.03

• The statement to the BoC’s 5 June unchanged 1% rate decision retained a mild hawkish bias. This is arguably at odds with a viewthat ‘some of the risks around the EZ crisis are materializing’. The BoC is dismissive of slightly slow 1Q GDP of 1.9% QoQ annualised, and is more concerned with the unbalanced composition of growth.

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1.30ING f'castMkt Fwds

• Our central assumption is that CAD remains relatively insulated from events in Europe, from a trade perspective and its sensitivity to financial market sentiment. That said the soft US labour market is a concern if representative of a US economy losing momentum. Canada has returned to a trade deficit for a first time in six months with exports to the US now falling for four straight months.

• Outside of JPY, CAD is the G10 best performer vs USD in 2Q. But US$100/bbl Brent oil is consistent with USD/CAD nearer 1.05.




AUD/USD

Downside risks prevail Current spot: 0.99

• The RBA’s easing cycle is in full swing. A 25bp cut to 3.50% on 5 June follows May’s 50bp move. This is no surprise given tough fiscal tightening. The RBA’s June statement attributes recent AUD falls to lower commodities, risk aversion and domestic rate cuts. The latter was engineered by the government to foster AUD losses.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• Yet domestic data flow is encouraging. Putting to one side a two-speed economy, 1Q GDP grew an exceptional 1.3% QoQ, driven by investment and consumption. The economy added 35k jobs in May. 2Q CPI data on 25 July will be key for policy easing near term.

• A 7 June PBOC rate cut reduces fear of a China growth recessionand its impact on AUD. ING sees 50bp more of PBOC cuts. Risk aversion warns of renewed AUD losses near-term, but offsetting this is talk that the Bundesbank will purchase AUD assets.




NZD/USD

Impressive resilience Current spot: 0.78

• It is surprising to see NZD as the top performer in G10 FX year-to-date (vs USD), essentially unchanged. NZD is generally seen as highly sensitive to overall risk sentiment. We attribute much of its resilience to a strong domestic demand outlook, courtesy of a ‘substantial boost’ to come from post-earthquake reconstruction.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• NZD/USD’s 5% fall since early May has seen the RBNZ remove a prior slightly hawkish stance. Along with risks to the global growth, ‘stimulative’ 2.50% rates are now deemed ‘appropriate’ until mid-2013 according to its latest forecasts. A tough budget, aiming for a surplus in FY14/15, and a fall in the PMI below 50 for a first time this year justify a cautious stance.

• A stabilisation in falling dairy prices helps NZD terms-of-trade, while domestic demand strength dampens NZD vulnerability.




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Emerging markets EUR/PLN

Fragile FX and resilient FI market Current spot: 4.31

• In case of strengthening tensions in the EU17, the EUR/PLN levels to watch would be 4.40-4.50 (late-2011 NBP interventions), and 4.60 (2011 top). However, in case of a more serious crisis, we would expect NBP to wait for the market to stabilise before considering defending any level. It is the BGK that could smooth a potential PLN depreciation trend, selling EU funds in the market.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• Foreign presence in local currency bonds is a risk for the PLN. So far, the market has ignored EU17 trouble altogether, with yields at 5Y lows. A break of 4.50/€ can trigger a short-term sell-off, mainly by unhedged investors or liquidity-constrained EU banks. MinFinhas covered ¾ of 2012 needs and prepared for financing issues.

• The GDP slowdown will prevent hikes, but the MPC is likely to stay hawkish, given elevated CPI.



Rafal Benecki, Warsaw +48 22 820 4696

EUR/HUF

High sensitivity on international sentiment remains Current spot: 297.3

• High volatility within the 290-310 range is set to remain in coming months, driven by EUR/USD and the IMF negotiation progress. 310-330/€ would be a deep EMU crisis scenario range, at which stage the government would react with an acceleration on its negotiations with the IMF.

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• The progress so far is limited to the encouraging signals from the government, mulling such a change of NBH law that the negotiations could start in July-August. We still expect the completion of the deal in the autumn. The NBH tries to balance the needs of the slowing economy with the potential HUF pressure. We do not see rate changes before the IMF deal.

• Given the reliance of the economy on external demand, any HUF strength is unlikely to extend beyond 285.


ING forecasts (mkt fwd) 1M 300 (298.7) 3M 295 (301.4) 6M 285 (305.0) 12M 285 (310.5)

David Nemeth, Budapest +36 1235 8800

EUR/CZK

CZK – safe haven? Current spot: 25.53

• A 1% 1Q GDP contraction and bleak economic outlook, plus anexpected negative contribution to growth from planned fiscal restriction measures (in 2013) increase the chance of further CNB cuts. The expected export slowdown and decrease in CNB rates by 25-50bp by end 2012 fuels our expectation of a weaker CZK over a three-month horizon.

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• We do not rule out a move toward a Greek exit being viewed positively for CE3 FX, but empirical evidence suggests any safe-haven related fall in EUR/CZK would be temporary at best. If so, we believe it would be a good opportunity to go long EUR/CZK, assuming a dramatic rebound perhaps in the order of 30%.

• Greek elections pose a sizable risk for our CZK forecast, especially if the result intensifies speculation of a Greek exit from the EU17.



Vojtech Benda, Prague +420 257 474 432

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EUR/RON

Weaker RON in spite of firm NBR support Current spot: 4.46

• NBR continued to support the RON in May, using about €0.6bn –about double that in an average month of the past crisis years, but half the amount used in the peak months. Such restraint makes us revise our EUR/RON path slightly upwards, in line with the recent underperformance of Romania’s CDS vs regional peers.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• Gaining a bit less than 50% votes in the local elections, the ruling alliance USL received a touch less than recent polls hinted. There are hints USL is preparing to impeach the president, which might consolidate its position ahead of November general elections.

• 1Q12 GDP details were soft with sequential growth coming from inventories, investment and external trade. These are unlikely to provide an additional tailwind going forward and support our call that 2Q12 may be the third consecutive quarter of contraction.



Vlad Muscalu, Bucharest +4021 209 1393

EUR/HRK

Kuna remains tightly managed Current spot: 7.55

• The kuna is tightly managed against the euro with lower volatility compared to its peers.

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• HRK-specific negative factors include a deteriorating foreign trade balance, company deleveraging, bank provisioning and higher dividend payments to non-residents and monetary easing in place since 9 May. On the positive side: June is likely to bring in €700m more tourism inflows month-on-month. YTD Croatia has already secured HRK9bn and US$1.5bn in refinancing, and €110m in FX were released through changes in MRR and local liquid financial institutions.

• Moody’s changed Croatia’s Baa3 Rating outlook to negative from stable, citing low medium-term growth prospects, implementation risk to Croatia’s deficit reduction plan and a constrained export sector.



Elena Ganeva, Sofia +3592 917 6720

EUR/RSD

Political stalemate detrimental for dinar Current spot: 116.9

• A government coalition between the incumbent Democrats (2nd in 20 May elections) and the Socialists (3rd) was perceived as the most likely election outcome, yet has failed so far over disagreements on needed austerity measures as well as on a third partner.

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• Delay in forming a government has left Serbia high on the investor risk radar screen. The new government will need to proceed urgently with fiscal consolidation and resume IMF talks. Unfreezing of IMF SBA is needed to ease external refinancing given the relatively high C/A deficit (8.3% expected in 2012).

• SNB increased the key rate by 50bp to 10% and released some €200m FC reserve liquidity through reserve requirement changes while withdrawing dinar liquidity. The dinar recovery was short-lived, and we revise our €/RSD forecast path higher.


ING forecasts (mkt fwd) 1M 117 (117.0) 3M 114 (117.1) 6M 112 (117.3) 12M 112

Elena Ganeva, Sofia +3592 917 6720

7


USD/RUB

EUR weakness would bring new USD/RUB highs Current spot: 32.6

• The RUB has been hit hard by the recent market turmoil, falling by c.12% from 2012 highs. Yet, the RUB performance has been in line with many EMEA peers, losing 1.3% YTD vs USD.

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ING f'castMkt NDF

• The CBR has turned its selling mode “on” since late May, stepping in with US$70-200m of daily interventions and having in total sold US$1.16bn, ie, making a 5 kopeck corridor upshift likely.With oil struggling to hold above the US$100/bbl level and ING scaling back its 2012 Brent forecast from US$115-120/bbl to US$100-105/bbl, the C/A support to the RUB will be lower.

• On top of this, capital outflows seem to have continued, which stands behind our revision to the RUB forecast. We now see RUB within 36-36.50/basket in 3-6 months with more sizable losses vs the USD (33-34) given ING’s call for 1.15-1.18 EUR/USD trading.


ING forecasts (NDF) 1M 32.9 (32.7) 3M 33.8 (33.1) 6M 33.0 (33.6) 12M 32.1 (34.6)

Dmitry Polevoy, Russia +7 495 771 7994

USD/UAH

Exchange rate volatile, but under control Current spot: 8.08

• Withdrawal of funds by non-resident portfolio investors increased volatility in the FX market thus increasing the UAH depreciation trend in May.

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ING f'castMkt NDF

• The NBU intervened in the market to reduce excessive demand for foreign currency. This caused a 2.9% MoM reduction in FX reserves in May. However, the volume of reserves is still sound for supporting exchange rate stability over the next 4-6 months

• Fundamentals do not look bad for UAH in the near-term. The sum of the current and capital accounts improved in April and stayed a positive US$0.5bn. We reiterate our view for a moderate UAH depreciation kick-starting after parliamentary elections are concluded in October. We expect USD/UAH to be trading above 8.40 by year-end.



Alexander Pecherytsyn, Kyiv +38 044 2303017

USD/KZT

Keep it to save, not to earn Current spot: 149.0

• The KZT has been recently confirming its status as a defensive emerging market currency, losing only 1% YTD vs USD irrespective of any crude and global market swings.

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ING f'castMkt NDF

• High oil prices inflated Kazakh trade balance to US$17bn in 4M12, suggesting that the KZT was retaining fundamental support from the commodities market.

• Stable export proceeds have continued to support the National Oil Fund (rising from US$51bn to US$51.6bn in May-12), while on the back of falling net FX-reserves from US$34.5bn to US$33.8bn.

• With lower INGF for oil prices for 2012-13, we are skewing our KZT forecast towards further gradual weakening up to 150/USD in 2012 with some mild appreciation coming only in 1H13. Source: Reuters, ING

ING forecasts (NDF) 1M 149.2 (149.0) 3M 149.5 (149.4) 6M 150 (150.1) 12M 148 (152.0)

Dmitry Polevoy, Russia +7 495 771 7994

8


USD/TRY

Tight policy continues to support TRY Current spot: 1.82

• CBT reserves fell by US$2.3bn in May before recovering back to US$79.9bn as of 12 June (up by US$1.9bn). Yet in the same period although we have seen TRY depreciate, its depreciation was similar to BRL and much less significant than its other peers (eg, RUB, MXN, ZAR, PLN, etc). Furthermore, as of 12 June, the FX basket fell back to end-April levels again.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• CBT’s frequent additional tightening, which pulled the average cost of CBT OMO short term funding to 9.7% in May from 8.8% in April, as well as extended flexibilities on FX liquidity management & RRRs, seems to cap currency volatility in general.

• Overall, short-term risks on USD/TRY remain linked to EUR/USD volatility the most. But tight policy and relatively weaker external debt redemptions might support TRY against EUR:USD basket.



Sengül Dağdeviren, Istanbul +90 212 329 0752

USD/ZAR

Will the SARB turn more dovish? Current spot: 8.41

• The 2012 ZAR sell-off gained momentum in May as the Eurozone outlook deteriorated. Beyond an at best uncertain prognosis for the Eurozone, the SARB notes slowing growth amongst major emerging markets and deteriorating terms of trade. This should continue to weigh on the mining sector and output.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• While the SARB officially is concerned by upside risks to inflation posed by further weakening in the ZAR, it feels this risk is partially offset by weaker oil prices. Indeed, the SARB has recently cut its inflation forecasts, now forecasting that CPI peaked at 6.1% in April.

• The FRA market prices a 50bp SARB rate cut by year-end. And a weaker ZAR might be a useful safety valve. The scope to hike rates looks limited given union threats to nationalise the SARB. Source: Reuters, ING



USD/ILS

BoI ready to cut rates? Current spot: 3.88

• USD/ILS continues to trade as a risk-sensitive pair and remains vulnerable to any further equity market weakness this summer. Even though inflation remains well-anchored in the middle of the BoI’s 1-3% range and growth should print in excess of 3% this year, the BoI is ready to cut should the European situation take a turn for a worse. Markets price a 25bp cut for the 25 June meeting.

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ING f'castMkt Fwds

• However, non-resident exposure in Israeli asset markets remains relatively light (foreigners hold just 4% of the short-term bill, Makam, market) and USD/ILS looks like a currency pair that could quickly snap back were European politicians to make any progress.

• Our cautious stance this summer keeps us looking for 4.00+, but USD/ILS could easily trade 3.80 on a ILS short squeeze.




9


Latam USD/BRL

Bad sentiment should trigger government reaction Current spot: 2.06

• The BRL continues to underperform. FX outflows intensified in May, amid intense FX volatility, which led BACEN to boost USD liquidity through FX swap auctions. The next step is for authorities to revise current rules for the tax on FX inflows. It already started with the reversal of part of the IOF tax on external borrowing.

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ING f'castMkt NDF

• The shift towards a more BRL-supportive FX policy should help stabilize the Real but recent FX volatility and poor activity indicators have contaminated market sentiment towards Brazil. A massive reassessment of the country’s activity outlook added a higher threshold for the BRL outlook to turn more favourable.

• Activity weakness, lower inflation, and continued EU uncertainties should contribute to extend the monetary easing cycle. We now expect the SELIC to drop an additional 100bp by August, to 7.5%.



Gustavo Rangel, New York + 1 646 424 6465

USD/MXN

Domestic politics to hold MXN back Current spot: 14.04

• Near-term dynamics for the MXN continue to relate much to external conditions. Should market jitters calm down, we could see the MXN gaining traction towards 13.7/USD, a level consistent with current domestic political and economic developments.

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

15.5

16.5


10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

15.5

16.5

ING f'castMkt Fwds

• July Presidential Elections are setting a support for the MXN. Although chances of a turnaround in polls are low with the PRI candidate still as the front-runner, political noise is building as the PAN has lost the second place in polls to the left-wing party PRD and protests against the PRI candidate increase.

• In the medium term, growth concerns in the US could work against the MXN. Do not expect to see USD/MXN below the 13.00/USD figure for a while. Source: Reuters, ING


Debora Luna / Ezequiel Garcia, Mexico City +52 55 5258 2095/2064

USD/CLP

Impressive relief rally helped by lower oil prices Current spot: 501.70

• The CLP staged an impressive rally over the past couple of weeks on the back of expectations that policymakers from China to Europe were prepared to boost monetary stimulus. The sharper drop in oil prices also resulted in a net improvement in Chile’s terms of trade, adding support to the Peso.

400

450

500

550

600

650

700


450

500

550

600

650

700ING f'castMkt NDF

• The challenging global growth outlook still seems to offer little sustained upside for the CLP (and copper prices) however, so we maintain a more neutral near-term currency outlook.

• Inflation dynamics have improved sharply and a continued fall in oil prices bode well for an additional fall in headline inflation. Relatively strong activity and labour data suggest, however, that the CB is unlikely to shift, once again, to an easing bias. We expect monetary policy to stay unchanged in the near term.


ING forecasts (NDF) 1M 503 (505) 3M 508 (509) 6M 505 (514) 12M 485 (521)


10


USD/ARS

FX market tension continues to rise Current spot: 4.48

• FX market tension continues to reach new highs as government attempts to control the ARS depreciation in the non-official market have largely failed to contain the surge in the premium between the official and non-official FX rate, which is now at close to 40%.

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

ING f'castMkt NDF

• Speculation about additional FX measures continues to generate unease, with the focus now on legislation aimed at allowing USD-denominated contracts to be settled in Pesos. Officials have denied that this opens the door for local-law USD-denominated debt will be serviced in ARS, but the market remains suspicious.

• Poor investor sentiment and draconian FX curbs suggest that the FX premium will stay high, but we think the USDARS is likely to maintain a gradually depreciating path, as officials still have the willingness and the tools to control FX trends in the official market.




11


Asia USD/CNY

Steady CNY appreciation replaced by shadowing DXY Current spot: 6.3686

• We believe PM Wen’s March pronouncement that the CNY was “near equilibrium” reset the PBOC’s monetary rule from concerted CNY appreciation to one prevailing in much of the rest of AXJ, shadowing DXY. Consistent with the new rule and DXY’s big 2.0% appreciation, the PBOC depreciated the CNY by 0.3% in May, the second-biggest depreciation ever after 0.4% in Dec-08.

6.00

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

6.00

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13

NDFs

ING f'cast

• We have revised our USDCNY forecast in line with ING’s house view that DXY appreciates on a 1-, 3- and 6-month horizon then gives something back over the next six months.

The PBOC also cut its policy rates, the 1-year lending and deposit rates, by 25bp to 6.31% and 3.25%, respectively. We expect that inflation will fall below 3%, which we think will be in June data, and it will open doors for more PBOC policy rate and RRR cuts.

Source: Bloomberg, ING Bank


Tim Condon, Singapore +65 6232 6020

USD/INR

RBI to ease rates to stimulate investment Current spot: 55.8

3840424446485052545658


ING f'castMkt NDF

• Deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals, policy hiatus coupled with rising global risk aversion has led to INR shed 6.2% since early May resulting in a net FII equity outflow of US$485m. Recently, INR has been trading range-bound at 55-56 levels.

• Hitting the nail on the head was the recent release of the 9-year low GDP figures at 5.3% YoY for the quarter ending March-12, prompting S&P to threaten a downgrade of India to junk status.

• Easing imports growth and over 16% decline in oil prices may help to cushion some of the concerns of the gaping current account deficit. Efforts are being undertaken by the authorities in fast-tracking the projects which had come to a halt due to complete policy inaction. We expect RBI to cut policy rate by 25bp in the June meeting to prop up growth.



#N/A

USD/HKD

Mr Yam drops a bombshell Current spot: 7.7584

• Ex-HKMA Chief Joseph Yam caused excitement by questioning of the virtues of the HKD peg. USDHKD briefly spiked to the 7.75 strong-side undertaking rate, proof that you can get away with anything if you operate from a position of strength. He’s right, of course, but we doubt the end of the peg is near.

7.72

7.74

7.76

7.78

7.80

7.82

7.72

7.74

7.76

7.78

7.80

7.82


Mkt Fwds

ING f'cast

• Hong Kong and Singapore, which have ceded control of short-term interest rates to the Fed, have the highest inflation in Asia. Low rates contribute to asset price inflation. And expectations of asset price inflation can boost CPI inflation expectations. We see evidence that this has occurred in both countries.

• We revise our 2012 GDP forecast to 2.8% from 3.5% (consensus 3.0%) on weak 0.4% 1Q12 growth. The official 2012 forecast is 1-3%.Source: Bloomberg, ING Bank



12


USD/IDR

Relies on confidence-sensitive capital Current spot: 9451

• Indonesia needs confidence-sensitive capital to finance a current account deficit. Confidence vaporized in May and the authorities had to dip into foreign reserves to the tune of US$4.9bn for BOP financing including exchange market operations. IDR depreciated 1.6%.

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000


NDFs

ING f'cast

• We read BI’s latest monetary policy statement as a commitment to curb panic USDIDR buying. However, we do not expect to see the pair below 9,400 in the short term and we have revised our forecast accordingly. Avoiding panic is key for preventing contagion from damaging the economic fundamentals.

• We forecast 6.5% GDP growth this year (cons. 6.0%, 6.3% in 1Q). Falling oil price diminishes inflation pressures, including by making an administered fuel price hike unnecessary.


ING forecasts (NDF) 1M 9400 (9502) 3M 9400 (9630) 6M 9400 (9777) 12M 9400 (10057)


USD/KRW

KRW is still attractive to speculators Current spot: 1166.4

• KRW depreciated 1.8% (monthly average) and foreign reserves dropped 1.9%. Their sum, 3.7%, a measure of exchange market pressure, was on the Asian high side. Unlike Indonesia and Thailand, the other big Asian movers, Korea doesn’t need hot money to finance a current account deficit; we forecast a US$20bn trade surplus this year. We infer that there was a lot of hot money positioned for KRW appreciation.

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600


NDFs

ING f'cast

• KRW remains Asia’s VIX currency and the IMF’s recent citing of reduced external vulnerability from the macroprudential measures and the build-up of foreign reserves in relation to short-term external debt was premature.

• Activity remains weak and inflation low for Korea. The BOK has room to ease but we don’t think it will. We like KTBs.




USD/MYR

Opportunistically improving competitiveness Current spot: 3.1861

• Risk-off in May saw the SGDMYR cross push through 2.48, which is well above what we considered BNM’s 2.35-2.45 comfort zone. However, the 0.4% gain in foreign reserves makes us think BNM used risk-off to steal a march on Singapore.

2.70

2.90

3.10

3.30

3.50

3.70

3.90

2.70

2.90

3.10

3.30

3.50

3.70

3.90


NDFs

ING f'cast

• The economy is doing well enough. 1Q12 GDP growth was 4.7%, forcing us to review our 5% full-year forecast for downward revision (consensus 4.3%). Weak global growth has hit exports, which have been consolidating since early 2011.

• Average inflation is low, 2.2% since 2000, with swings typically driven by the food component. The fading 2011 food price spike is driving disinflation in 2012. We don’t see BNM easing. In our view, government bonds are attractive; we are reviewing our 3.3% yearend forecast for the 5-year MGS yield for downward revision.




13


USD/PHP

PHP doesn’t attract speculators Current spot: 42.64

• Strong, 6.4% 1Q12 GDP growth was in contrast to developments elsewhere in Asia and the world. Improved fundamentals explain Moody’s and S&P’s recent sovereign outlook upgrades.

40.00

42.00

44.00

46.00

48.00

50.00

40.00

42.00

44.00

46.00

48.00

50.00


NDFs

ING f'cast

• The 1Q12 GDP data led us to revise our 2012 growth forecast to 5.6% from 4.7%, a lone upgrade against nearly across-the-board downgrades. Solid growth has reframed the monetary policy discussion to being about the timing of a rate hike. There’s no urgency. Inflation is low, 2.9% in May. We expect it to stay near the low end of BSP’s 3-5% 2012 inflation target.

• The absence of exchange market pressure in May is evidence that the BSP’s low-discretion exchange rate policy has made the PHP unattractive as a speculative vehicle. We prefer the PComp, real estate and fixed income in that order.




USD/SGD

USDSGD – Slavishly shadowing DXY Current spot: 1.2817

• The MAS’s S$-NEER policy amounts to an extreme version of the DXY shadowing policy that is widespread among Asian central banks with undervalued currencies. We estimate the MAS’s reaction function – the percentage change in the USDSGD for a 1% appreciation in DXY – at -1.0. ING”s forecast of an inverted-V profile for DXY implies the same for USDSGD.

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60


Mkt Fwds

ING f'cast

• Weak growth and high inflation presents a policy conundrum. The SGD’s 8.4% appreciation last year failed to curb inflation and vaulted the Lion City up the ranks of the world’s expensive cities. Our 2012 GDP growth forecast is 1.9%, revised recently from 2.7%, and inflation forecast is 4.5%.

• We doubt the MAS will entertain alternatives to the S$-NEER policy in the way ex-HKMA chief Yam did for the HKD peg.




USD/TWD

Retracement of JPYTWD selloff stalled around 0.38 Current spot: 29.95

• The 1.5% foreign reserve loss plus currency depreciation in May was among Asia’s lowest and indicates little speculative interest in the TWD. We believe this is structural, a feature of the CBC’s heavy-discretion policy.

27.00

29.00

31.00

33.00

35.00

37.00

27.00

29.00

31.00

33.00

35.00

37.00


Mkt Fwds

ING f'cast

• Weak external demand led us to downgrade our 2012 GDP growth to 1.8% from 3.0% (cons. 2.9%). Exports to China have been a drag since 3Q11, which also has been the case in other large Asian exporters, Korea and Singapore. We see little prospect of monetary policy turning more accommodative.

• The CBC manages USDTWD with an eye on the JPYTWD. The retracement of USDJPY’s post-Feb BOJ meeting rally has stalled around 79 and the corresponding retracement of the JPYTWD selloff stalled around 0.38, where we see it persisting.




14


USD/THB

Flood snapback cut short by cyclical export weakness Current spot: 31.54

• The post-flood activity bounce hit a cyclical headwind, the slowdown in external demand, and stalled industrial production nearly 10% below its pre-flood level. 2012 growth was always going to be about the snapback from the flood damage and we are reviewing our 3.7% growth forecast for downward revision (cons. 5.0%).

28.00

30.00

32.00

34.00

36.00

38.00

28.00

30.00

32.00

34.00

36.00

38.00


Mkt Fwds

ING f'cast

• Reconstruction-related imports have driven the trade account into deficit, which we forecast will turn into a full-year one. The need for confidence-sensitive capital explains the 5.5% combined THB depreciation/reserve loss in May, second to Indonesia.

• The BOT has room to ease but we don’t expect it to. We think tight money contributed to slowing post-GFC trend real GDP growth. It risks doing the same to post-flood trend growth.




USD/VND

The BOP crisis that began in March 2008 is over Current spot: 20950

• The SBV announced two 100bp policy interest rate cuts on 28 May and 11 June, taking the refinancing rate to 11% and the discount rate to 9%. Falling inflation has created room for the SBV to ease. May’s 8.34% inflation was the first single-digit print since October 2010.

15000

16500

18000

19500

21000

22500

24000

15000

16500

18000

19500

21000

22500

24000


NDFs

ING f'cast

• Vietnam is a big beneficiary from the lower oil price. It narrows the trade deficit and lowers headline inflation.

• The SBV used mini-devaluations to relieve pressure during the long-running BOP crisis. The narrowing trade deficit and lower inflation signal the end of the crisis. We expect SBV policy will revert to the pre-crisis policy of stabilizing USDVND using heavy exchange market intervention. We forecast a flat profile for the pair on a one-year horizon.


ING forecasts (mkt fwd) 1M 20950 (21100) 3M 20950 (21533) 6M 20950 (22135) 12M 20950 (23330)


15


16

ING foreign exchange forecasts

EUR cross rates Spot 1M 3M 6M 12M USD cross rates Spot 1M 3M 6M 12M

Developed FX EUR/USD 1.26 1.22 1.18 1.15 1.20 EUR/JPY 99.7 97.6 95.6 96.6 108.0 USD/JPY 79.3 80.0 81.0 84.0 90.0EUR/GBP 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.75 0.77 GBP/USD 1.55 1.53 1.51 1.53 1.56EUR/CHF 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 USD/CHF 0.96 0.98 1.02 1.04 1.00EUR/NOK 7.51 7.60 7.70 7.50 7.70 USD/NOK 5.98 6.23 6.53 6.52 6.42EUR/SEK 8.84 9.00 9.20 9.00 9.30 USD/SEK 7.03 7.38 7.80 7.83 7.75EUR/DKK 7.431 7.430 7.427 7.425 7.435 USD/DKK 5.913 6.09 6.29 6.46 6.20EUR/CAD 1.29 1.24 1.20 1.17 1.20 USD/CAD 1.026 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.00EUR/AUD 1.26 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.30 AUD/USD 0.995 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.92EUR/NZD 1.61 1.58 1.57 1.58 1.67 NZD/USD 0.778 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.72

EMEA EUR/PLN 4.31 4.43 4.35 4.26 4.10 USD/PLN 3.43 3.63 3.69 3.70 3.42EUR/HUF 297 300 295 285 285 USD/HUF 236.6 245.90 250.00 247.83 237.50EUR/CZK 25.5 26.0 26.5 25.7 25.5 USD/CZK 20.3 21.3 22.5 22.3 21.3EUR/RON 4.46 4.50 4.50 4.60 4.55 USD/RON 3.55 3.69 3.81 4.00 3.79EUR/HRK 7.55 7.55 7.56 7.57 7.57 USD/HRK 6.01 6.19 6.41 6.58 6.31EUR/RSD 117 117 114 112 112 USD/RSD 93.2 95.90 96.61 97.39 93.33EUR/RUB 41.0 40.1 39.9 38.0 38.5 USD/RUB 32.6 32.9 33.8 33.0 32.1EUR/UAH 10.20 9.9 9.5 9.6 10.2 USD/UAH 8.08 8.09 8.09 8.37 8.53EUR/KZT 187.2 182.0 176.4 172.5 177.6 USD/KZT 149 149.2 149.5 150 148EUR/TRY 2.29 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 USD/TRY 1.82 1.88 1.86 1.84 1.75EUR/ZAR 10.59 10.4 9.8 9.5 9.9 USD/ZAR 8.41 8.50 8.30 8.25 8.25EUR/ILS 4.88 4.8 4.7 4.7 5.1 USD/ILS 3.88 3.90 4.00 4.10 4.25

Latam EUR/BRL 2.59 2.50 2.4 2.3 2.3 USD/BRL 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.90EUR/MXN 17.64 16.7 16.0 15.7 16.5 USD/MXN 14.04 13.71 13.60 13.66 13.75EUR/CLP 630 613.7 599.4 580.8 582.0 USD/CLP 502 503 508 505 485EUR/ARS 5.63 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.2 USD/ARS 4.48 4.54 4.65 4.83 5.20

Asia EUR/CNY 8.00 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.7 USD/CNY 6.37 6.38 6.40 6.42 6.40EUR/HKD 9.75 9.5 9.2 8.9 9.3 USD/HKD 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76EUR/IDR 11861 11468 11092 10810 11280 USD/IDR 9410 9400 9400 9400 9400EUR/INR 70.11 67.7 64.9 62.1 63.0 USD/INR 55.80 55.50 55.00 54.00 52.50EUR/KRW 1465 1421 1375 1340 1398 USD/KRW 1166 1165 1165 1165 1165EUR/MYR 4.00 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 USD/MYR 3.19 3.16 3.15 3.14 3.10EUR/PHP 53.5 52.8 51.3 48.6 50.2 USD/PHP 42.56 43.25 43.5 42.25 41.8EUR/SGD 1.61 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.25EUR/TWD 37.7 36.5 35.3 34.4 35.9 USD/TWD 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9EUR/THB 39.6 38.6 37.2 36.0 37.3 USD/THB 31.5 31.6 31.5 31.3 31.1Source: Reuters, ING


FX derivatives idea

Using a Synthetic Forward Plus Digital to hedge EUR/RON upside Looking to hedge Greek bank involvement in Romania and potential RON weakness with FX options Greece goes to the polls on 17 June amidst much uncertainty. It is hard to pin down a baseline scenario, but we suspect that even if the left-leaning Syriza wins, hurried negotiation can see the troika find new funds for Greece such that Greece stays in the Eurozone. However, there are many moving parts and much could go wrong. And intense speculation over a Greek Eurozone exit and the collapse of the Greek banking system would have a disproportionate impact on the Balkan economies. In Romania, for example, Greek parent banks own 13% of Romanian banking sector assets, worth some 8% of GDP. In a recent report our EMEA team looked the Greek presence in the Balkans and the various policy responses available to local authorities. Even though authorities have FX reserves and IMF/EC support, the RON would likely come under pressure as the market speculated how quickly the shortfall in external funding could be replaced. EUR/RON rallied over 20% during the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis. And a worst case Greek scenario could see EUR/RON trade over 5.00. For those looking to hedge RON assets, a FX options strategy can be appropriate.

Strategy: Using a one year EUR/RON forward reference of 4.5630, Client buys one year EUR call/RON put, strike 4.5800. Client sells one year EUR put, RON call, strike 4.5800. Client buys a one year Digital (European) EUR call/RON put, strike 5.00 and generating a payout of RON 0.1500 per EUR, should EUR/RON be trading at or above 5.00 on the one year expiry.

Rationale • If a client is concerned about potential RON sell-off on a worst-case Greek outcome and chooses to hedge, the choice is to buy EUR/RON

at the one year forward of 4.5630 or look at the options market.

• Our strategy effectively locks in a synthetic forward hedge at 4.5800, effectively a RON 0.0170 worse rate than the forward. However, we use that RON 0.0170 give up at inception to finance the purchase of the Digital option, which would improve the realised hedge rate by RON 0.1500 should EUR/RON be trading at or above 5.00 on the one year expiry of the option. If EUR/RON is indeed above 5.00 in one year’s time, the effective hedge rate is therefore improved to 4.4300 from 4.5800.

• This strategy would be suitable for a) a client who has concluded RON assets needs to be hedged for FX risk and b) a strong view that RON would come under severe pressure in the event of the Greek crisis escalating – since the benefit of the strategy is only derived if EUR/RON is above 5.00 in one years’ time.

Chris Turner, Head of FX Strategy, London +44 20 7767 1610

For more detailed discussions on corporate FX hedging strategies, prices and other trade specific requirements, please contact in the first instance your local FX Trading and Sales teams or the following specialists in the Client Solutions Group in Amsterdam, Alexander Schreuder Goedheijt, Fahd El Habti and Michel Hensen on +31 20 563 8171.

Using a synthetic forward plus Digital to hedge EUR/RON upside

4.00

4.20

4.40

4.60

4.80

5.00

5.20

5.40

4.00 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80 5.00 5.20 5.40

Spot on expiry

Rea

lised

hed

ging

rate

on

expi

ry

Forward Realised hedge rate if EUR/RON trades < 5.0000 at expiryRealised hedge rate if EUR/RON trades ≥ 5.0000 at expiry Spot

Source: ING

17

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Research analyst contacts Developed Markets Title Telephone Email

London Mark Cliffe Global Head of Financial Markets Research +44 20 7767 6283 [email protected] Rob Carnell Chief International Economist +44 20 7767 6909 [email protected] James Knightley Senior Economist, UK, US $ Bloc +44 20 7767 6614 [email protected]

Chris Turner Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy +44 20 7767 1610 [email protected] Tom Levinson Foreign Exchange Strategist +44 20 7767 8057 [email protected]

Amsterdam Maarten Leen Head of Macro & Consumer Economics +31 20 563 4406 [email protected] Martin van Vliet Senior Economist, Eurozone +31 20 563 9528 [email protected] Teunis Brosens Senior Economist, US +31 20 563 6167 [email protected] Dimitry Fleming Senior Economist, Netherlands +31 20 563 9497 [email protected]

Padhraic Garvey Global Head of Developed Markets Debt Strategy +31 20 563 8955 [email protected] Jeroen van den Broek Head of Developed Markets Credit Strategy +31 20 563 8959 [email protected] Maureen Schuller Senior Credit Strategist +31 20 563 8941 [email protected] Alessandro Giansanti Senior Rates Strategist +31 20 563 8801 [email protected] Job Veenendaal Quantitative Strategist +31 20 563 8956 [email protected] Roelof-Jan van den Akker Technical Analyst +31 20 563 8178 [email protected] Mark Harmer Head of Developed Markets Credit Research +31 20 563 8964 [email protected] Max Castle Credit Analyst +31 20 563 8815 [email protected] Malin Hedman Credit Analyst +31 20 563 8962 [email protected]

Brussels Peter Vanden Houte Chief Economist, Belgium, Eurozone +32 2 547 8009 [email protected] Carsten Brzeski Senior Economist, Germany, Eurozone +32 2 547 8652 [email protected] Manuel Maleki Senior Economist, France +32 2 547 3995 [email protected] Julien Manceaux Economist, Belgium, Switzerland +32 2 547 3350 [email protected]

Philippe Ledent Economist, Belgium +32 2 547 3161 [email protected]

Milan Paolo Pizzoli Senior Economist, EMU, Italy, Greece +39 02 89629 3630 [email protected]

Emerging Markets Title Telephone Email

New York H David Spegel Global Head of Emerging Markets Strategy +1 646 424 6464 [email protected] Gustavo Rangel Chief Economist, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru +1 646 424 6465 [email protected]

London Simon Quijano-Evans Head of Research & Chief Economist, EMEA +44 20 7767 5310 [email protected]

Bulgaria Elena Ganeva Economist, Bulgaria, Croatia +359 2 917 6720 [email protected]

Czech Rep Vojtech Benda Senior Economist, Czech Republic +420 2 5747 4432 [email protected]

Hungary David Nemeth Senior Economist, Hungary +36 1 255 5581 [email protected]

India Upasna Bhardwaj Economist, India +91 22 3309 5718 [email protected]

Mexico Debora Luna Economist, Mexico +52 55 5258 2095 [email protected] Ezequiel Garcia Economist, Mexico +52 55 5258 2064 [email protected]

Philippines Joey Cuyegkeng Economist, Philippines +632 479 8855 [email protected]

Poland Mateusz Szczurek Chief Economist, CEE +48 22 820 4698 [email protected] Rafal Benecki Chief Economist, Poland +48 22 820 4696 [email protected] Grzegorz Ogonek Economist, Poland +48 22 820 4608 [email protected]

Romania Vlad Muscalu Economist, Romania +40 21 209 1393 [email protected]

Russia Dmitry Polevoy Economist, Russia & Kazakhstan +7 495 771 7994 [email protected] Egor Fedorov Senior Credit Analyst +7 495 755 5480 [email protected]

Singapore Tim Condon Head of Research & Chief Economist, Asia +65 6232 6020 [email protected] Prakash Sakpal Economist, Asia +65 6232 6181 [email protected]

Slovakia Eduard Hagara Senior Economist, Slovakia +421 2 5934 6392 [email protected]

Turkey Sengül Dağdeviren Head of Research & Chief Economist, Turkey +90 212 329 0752 [email protected] Muhammet Mercan Senior Economist, Turkey +90 212 329 0751 [email protected] Ömer Zeybek Economist, Turkey +90 212 329 0753 [email protected]

Ukraine Alexander Pecherytsyn Head of Research, Ukraine +38 044 230 3017 [email protected] Halyna Antonenko Financial Markets Research Analyst +38 044 590 3584 [email protected]

18


Disclosures Appendix ANALYST CERTIFICATION The analyst(s) who prepared this report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views about the subject securities or issuers and no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Company disclosures are available from the disclosures page on our website at http://research.ing.com. The remuneration of research analysts is not tied to specific investment banking transactions performed by ING Group although it is based in part on overall revenues, to which investment banking contribute. Securities prices: Prices are taken as of the previous day’s close on the home market unless otherwise stated. Conflicts of interest policy. ING manages conflicts of interest arising as a result of the preparation and publication of research through its use of internal databases, notifications by the relevant employees and Chinese walls as monitored by ING Compliance. For further details see our research policies page at http://research.ing.com.

FOREIGN AFFILIATES DISCLOSURES Each ING legal entity which produces research is a subsidiary, branch or affiliate of ING Bank N.V. See back page for the addresses and primary securities regulator for each of these entities.

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Markets Board Kiev ING Bank Ukraine JSC, 30-a, Spaska Street, Kiev, Ukraine, 04070. Ukrainian Securities and Stock Commission London ING Bank N.V. London Branch, 60 London Wall, London EC2M 5TQ, United Kingdom. Authorised by the Dutch Central Bank Manila ING Bank N.V., Manila Branch, 20/F Tower One, Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue, 1226 Makati City, Philippines. Philippine Securities and

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Exchange Board of India New York ING Financial Markets LLC, 1325 Avenue of the Americas, New York, United States,10019. Securities and Exchange Commission Prague ING Bank N.V. Prague Branch, Plzenska 345/5, 150 00 Prague 5, Czech Republic. Czech National Bank Singapore ING Bank N.V. Singapore Branch, 19/F Republic Plaza, 9 Raffles Place, #19-02, Singapore, 048619. Monetary Authority of Singapore Sofia ING Bank N.V. Sofia Branch, 49B Bulgaria Blvd, Sofia 1404 Bulgaria. Financial Supervision Commission Warsaw ING Bank Slaski S.A, Plac Trzech Krzyzy, 10/14, Warsaw, Poland, 00-499. Polish Financial Supervision Authority

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This report has been prepared on behalf of ING (being for this purpose the commercial banking business of ING Bank NV and certain of its subsidiary companies)solely for the information of its clients. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Groep NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). It is notinvestment advice or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, ING makes no representation that it is accurate or complete. The informationcontained herein is subject to change without notice. ING Group and any of its officers, employees, related and discretionary accounts may, to the extent notdisclosed above and to the extent permitted by law, have long or short positions or may otherwise be interested in any transactions or investments (including derivatives) referred to in this report. 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