1 • 3/21/11

Initial Analysis of Vulnerability

Andy Jarvis

“Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World” Workshop

ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

6-8 December 2011

2 • 3/21/11

Breeding strategies on which crops?

Sorghum

Bean

Banana

3 • 3/21/11

Monfreda et al., 2008

Intensively grown in the borders between Niger and Nigeria and in West India

Which are areas of high suitability

Sorghum

Area harvested of sorghum

Current sorghum suitability

Ramirez-Villegas et al., 2011

4 • 3/21/11

Sorghum suitability changes by 2030

Negative impact: Central Ethiopia, Uganda, SE Kenya, Tanzania 50-80% of suitability area could decrease in climatic suitability

Central Ethiopia

Uganda

Tanzania

SE Kenya

5 • 3/21/11

What’s the principal constraint for Sorghum?

6 • 3/21/11

Simple strategies of adaptation to minimize sorghum yield losses – Delayed sowing to avoid water stress

– Crop substitution

– Expansion to new agriculturally suitable areas since some environments with particularly low temperature will likely become suitable in the future, such as the highlands of the semi-arid tropics.

HOWEVER

Biological adaptation of Sorghum are needed

- The sorghum genetic pool contains a wide range of traits

- Important abiotic traits in terms of sorghum adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa and India: growing cycle duration and drought tolerance.

Adaptation before negative impacts

7 • 3/21/11

Where banana suitable?

Most suitable area located in tropical humid regions

Coinciding with the current distribution of the crop

Low lands in Latin America, the Caribbean, western Africa, RDC, CAF and in southern Asia

Area harvested

Current banana suitability

BananaOne of the world’s major food crops

8 • 3/21/11 How will change the suitability of banana in the future?

Prediction of Area negatively impacted - South America - West and central Africa Decrease of banana suitability due to drought

Poor fruit development

Prediction of Area positively impactedArea limited by min temperature and rainfall will be favored in the future East Africa, Southern Africa, Sub-tropical Brazil, Paraguay, Northern Argentina,… Projected climate of the 2020s is expected to favor increased banana production in some areas by up to 50%.

9 • 3/21/11 What’s the major climate constraints for banana?

WAF: West Africa, EAF: East Africa, CAF: Central Africa, IGP: Indo-Gangetic plains, AML: Latin America

10 • 3/21/11

How adapting the sector to climate change?

- Measures to manage impacts need to involve agronomic practices as well as the development of more resilient hybrids and with fruit quality that is acceptable to markets Increased tolerance of drought and temperature extremes,

- Banana resistant to Black Sigatoka which is the most widespread disease of bananas

HOWEVER CC could have positive impact to reduce Black Sigatoka. Black Sigatoka will be less suitable in the most areas

11 • 3/21/11 BeanThe most important food legume in tropical Latin America

and East and southern Africa

Area harvested

Current bean suitability

12 • 3/21/11

Changes in Beans Suitability

• Average global area of suitability for growing beans may be reduced by 6.6% by 2020• But wide range of change in suitability from -87% to +66% across regions.

13 • 3/21/11 Which climatic constraint affects the most beans?

Major climate constraints: heat stress drought stress

15 • 3/21/11

• Adaptation to drought stress– Fitting the right root system to each production

environment: Deeper root system – Root whorls – basal root

Improved genotypes with vigorous root systems

– Stomatal control– Improved photosynthate remobilization under stress

• Adaptation to heat stress– Tepary bean “Sonora 32” (P. acutifolius) = more

tolerant of high temperature at germination

Potential breeding strategies

Tepary bean

16 • 3/21/11

• Changes of precipitation and temperature can lead to the emergence of some diseases and alter the distribution and severity of pathogens and diseases

• Increase in precipitation in many African countries for the 2020s:- Beans more affected by angular leaf spot (caused by Phaeoisariopsis

griseola): Rwanda, Burundi and some regions of Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Malawi

- Beans could be more affected by anthracnose (caused by Colletotrochum lindemthianum): Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya

- Root rot disease ( Pythium and Fusarium spp.): Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, and Uganda

• Regions affected by drought - Less prone to attack from fungal pathogens

• Whiteflies- regions affected by whiteflies - Find bean germoplasm resistant to whiteflies

Beans and CC impact on fungal, viral disease and insect pests

18 • 3/21/11 Comparison of changes in crop suitability in specific region

West Africa: Changes in suitability of Sorghum are positive => Potential adaptation= focus on sorghum crop

Need genetic improvement for Banana and Bean

19 • 3/21/11

Uganda: Changes in suitability of Banana are positive => Potential adaptation= focus on banana crop in this area

Need genetic improvement for Bean and Sorghum

Comparison of changes in crop suitability in specific site