INL MWWIWaters of the West WorkshopSalt Lake City, UTJuly 19, 2011Andy Wood Kevin WernerNOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

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Seasonal to Two YearStreamflow Prediction

Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations

ISI climate predictability is relatively limited in our region (CB)

water management in 7 states depends on regional climate and flow forecasts

plot -- JFM Precip correlation with Nino 3.4, lag 1 season

Partners in Water Management

ReclamationColorado Basin Streamflow Forecasting Research Development Operations

CBRFCOHD Academic Researchers

Gillies & Wang, USUTroch, UAPiechota, UNLVMoradkani, PSURajagopalan, CSU Wolter, CUOthers: Becky Smith (student, CSU); Sponsors (CWCB) and Consultant (RTI)SI/Y2 Climate and Streamflow Forecasting WorkshopNOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast CenterSalt Lake City, UT March 21-22, 2011

Organized bySponsored by CBRFC Colorado Water Conservation Board Reclamation NIDIS

Outcomes: (1) future workshop; (2) forecasting testbed

CFS Seasonal Forecast Skill - Precipitation

*Example of Experimental Ensembles GFS and CFS based ensembles: experimental products updated daily at Colorado RFC (CBRFC) & California-Nevada RFC (CNRFC)GFS CFS Yampa River Below Craig, COfloodwww.cbrfc.noaa.gov/devel/hefs/

Linkage to Water/Energy ManagementAverage contribution to Lake Powell Apr-Jul inflow:Green River34%Colorado River50%San Juan River13%*ReclamationMidterm-Probabilistic ModelStakeholderAllocationsGraphic from Dr. Katrina Grantz, Bureau of ReclamationIn development CFS-based flow forecasts for Reclamation water management*

**CBRFC and CNRFC have started running daily ensemble forecasts using GFS and CFS. Here are examples of flow forecasts for the flow into Lake Powell for March 4, 2011. GFS forecasts were used for the first 14 lead days, and CFS for 5 months.

***********************CBRFC runs the EPP with GFS and CFS forecasts for 219 catchments in its upper basin and theyre accessible via the web. The graphics/website are in progress. The forecasts go out 5 months. These ensembles are. CNRFC runs EPP with only the GFS forecasts for ~110 watersheds out to 10 days, which are available on an internal website for now.

*As noted before, the CFS/GFS (HEFS) forecasts will eventually (we hope) become input to water management models designed tohandle probabilistic inputs these are just being finished by USBR. As can be seen from the icons to the right that relate to stakeholderallocations of water (California, Arizona), the importance of this linkage is huge with $millions in consequence for the water sector across theseven states that use Colorado R. water. *