innovation vs punditry
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2010 investments in mobile/web
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“All progress depends on the unreasonable man”
- George Bernard Shaw
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“Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted”
- Martin Luther King
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“when the train of history hits a curve, the intellectuals fall off.”
- Karl Marx
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Experts & Pundits
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Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers
Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml
forecast actual
1986 forecast for 2000
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yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast1980’s phone: year 2000 phone:
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2010 phone:
300,000 available apps7bn+ apps downloaded
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the folly of predictions: tetlock study
hundreds of experts.80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years
results: experts about the same accuracy as dart-throwing monkeys
Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1
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"Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the improbable, take on the inadvisable.
Hope is only path to extraordinary success."
INSPIRATIONAL TWEET:
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TWEET?
-140 characters that millions of people follow-Can tell the mood of a nation-Creates an instantaneous backchannel-Formation of a personal brand-Promotes content
Did not exist 5 years ago!
Today: More than 100 million users65 million tweets are posted each
day
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SF Giants win World Series…
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Could McKinsey or an analyst have predicted Twitter?
Predicted 140 chars as “culture assessment tool”?
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…the sources of innovation
Google, Facebook, Twitter : Fox, NBC, CBS
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Amazon : Walmart
First Solar : Shell & BP Solar
Cree : GE
DNA Sequencing
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Big companies vs. innovators
Focus on Process
Existing markets
Focus on DCF, NPV, EPS
Careful not to fail
“Push” into the market
Incrementalism
Focus on Vision
Invent new Markets/Paths
Ignore financial analysis
Constantly iterate
Create “Pull”
Disruption
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How to/not toFinancial tools: DCF, NPV,
IRR
Stage gate development or effectual reasoning?
Top down market analysis or evolution?
customer wish list or passion for a vision?
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Innovation according to the press
Apple
Microsoft
IBM
Toyota
Amazon
LG Electronics
BYD
GE
Sony
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Samsung
Intel
Ford
RIM
VW
HP
Tata
BMW
Coca-Cola
Nintendo
1-10 11-20
Amazon
Apple
Huawei
First Solar
PG&E
Novartis
Walmart
HP
Hulu
Netflix
Nike
Intel
Spotify
BYD
Cisco Systems
IBM
GE
Disney
1-10 11-20
Business Week Fast Company
What has surprised you?Source: Businessweek, Fast Company
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5 years out, the group’s market cap has grown…
winners take (almost) all =investment viability
Starting Industry Structure
But leaders far exceed the also-rans
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Dev
ices
/ U
sers
(M
M i
n L
og
Sc
ale
)
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New Computing Cycle Characteristics
Minicomputer
10+
Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E
Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone / Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively;Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research.
1
10
100
1000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
PC
100+
Mainframe
1+
Mobile/Gadget Internet
10000?
Desktop Internet
1000+
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The old don’t innovate – the new “create the future”
Mainframes1960s
PersonalComputing
1980s
Desktop InternetComputing
1990s
Mobile InternetComputing
2000s
MiniComputing
1970s
New Winners
NewWinners
NewWinners
NewWinners
Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: Factset, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research.
Microsoft Cisco Intel Apple Oracle EMCDell Compaq
Google AOL eBay Yahoo! Amazon.com
Digital EquipmentData GeneralHPPrimeComputervisionWang Labs
IBMNCRControl DataSperryHoneywellBurroughs
NewWinners
FacebookTwitterApple (exception?)????
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as surely as...
1985: NOT a PC in every home
1990: NO email for grandma
1995: NOT the internet
2000: NO pervasive mobile, seacrh
2005: NO social media / iphone
2008: NO Goldman/Morgan bankruptcy?
2010+: reason for optimism 21
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discovery
content curation
eBooks/interactive content
HTML 5…
What’s next?
Landline phone
Standalone radio
Portable DVD
Low-end Cameras/ camcorders
MP3 players
GPS
Portable gaming
Voice recorders
Translator/dictionary
Iphone Ipad
Android
Existing static products…
Difficult to predict the future, when innovation is the name of the game
recommendations
Reputation
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what will it be?
Taste graphs
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curation vs. creation of online content
privacy vs. personalization
where will HTML 5 lead?
discovery vs. recommendation
curation of goods in the real world?
who do you trust? Friends, experts, crowd?
mvp with rapid iteration vs. better game play & production value?
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not yet done…
Payments
Semantic Web
Convey intent
Analysis: Network, behavior,…
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sensors
medicine
privacy & authentication
personalization Everything
everywhere
Anticipate needs (agents)
Group-sourced innovation
Discovery
Reputation
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Innovators
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“The fine line separating the delusional from the visionaries amongst us is often
not foresight, but rather hindsight.”
Ben Semel
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1.It is not possible to convert a gasoline engine to a Diesel, using the same transfer line. I did it and it is the most successful Diesel in the world and it was copied by everybody.
2.The combustion for a high speed Diesel is not possible. I started production with a 5000 rpm Diesel with 2000 engines/day on the gasoline engine transfer line.
3. You cannot use a rubber toothed belt to drive the camshaft and the injection pump. I did it and it is the standard solution today.
4.It is not possible to use an aluminum radiator because the corrosion will destroy the engine. I did it and it is the standard solution today.
5.It is not possible to create an “emission free” natural gas burner. I did it. It is in mass production at VIESSMANN. BUDERUS sued VIESSMANN about “emission free” and lost.
Dr. Peter Hofbauer, Chairman and CTO
Attitude matters:
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Response when told it can’t be done “everyone told me….”
Ecomotors (50% increase in engine efficiency)
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“It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are difficult.”- Seneca
“Try and fail, but don't fail to try.”- Stephen Kaggwa
“Courage is doing what you're afraid to do. There can be no courage unless you're scared.”- Eddie Rickenbacker
“Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.”- Robert F. Kennedy
“You will face many defeats in your life, but never let yourself be defeated.”- Maya Angelou
The willingness to fail gives us the freedom to succeed
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The Weather Forecast …
Rate of change will accelerate…
Adaptability, agility are key!
Innovation & entrepreneurship will thrive
Fun, fortunes & failure will be in abundance
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