Input for next SCOSTEP programafter CAWSES-II

Japanese SCOSTEP committeeof Science Council of Japan

(Chair: Prof. Tatsuki Ogino, Nagoya Univ.)

Dec 25, 2012Dec 28, 2012 rev.B

Suggested topics for new Task GroupsSOLAR VARIABILITY• Earth-affecting solar transients

– See appendix 2 • Extreme events in the solar-terrestrial system• Solar maximum and declining phase

– 2014-18 will be the maximum and declining phase of solar activity• Discrimination of global trends and solar activityCOUPLINGS• Latitudinal coupling in atmosphere and geospace

– e.g. energy transfer from high to low latitude during geomagnetic storm– Coupling between equatorial and mid-latitude/polar ionosphere – Atmospheric coupling between different latitudes and hemispheres

• Whole atmosphere and geospace coupling– Expansion of TG-4/CAWSES-II to global scale and into geospace– Effect of geospace disturbance to the atmosphere

IMPORTANT ISSUES• Turbulence/small scale processes in solar-terrestrial phenomena

– A new issue arising from high-resolution observation and modeling• Combination of observation and modeling (in space weather)

– Data assimilation for precise forecasting• Atmospheric dynamics for ground-ionosphere electric currentINFRASTRUCTURE• Capacity Building• Informatics including big data.

Keywords for the titleof next SCOSTEP program after CAWSES-II

• No ‘CAWSES-III’, but the basic concepts of CAWSES should continue.

• Climate, Weather, and Impact • Extreme, Severe, Space storm • 5 year project is preferable

Help for wording needed from English-speaking members.

(appendix 1) Possible large-scale projects expected in 2014-2018,

which Japanese group will organize or join

• Solar Telescope (Kyoto Univ.) • ERG satellite for radiation belts (launch: 2015)• Hinode will keep its operation • IUGONET (database development activity) • PANSY radar will be in full operation in Antarctica • EISCAT-3D will be in operation (international collaboration) • Equatorial atmosphere radar is newly proposed. • Multi-point ground network will expand to subauroral latitudes and

Asia/Africa • International school activity will be kept by Kyoto Univ. and Kyushu

Univ.

(appendix 2) CAWSES-ISEST ProjectInternational Study for Earth-Affecting Solar Transients (ISEST)

SOC Members: Jie Zhang (USA), B. Vr?nak (Co-Chair, Croatia), A. Asai (Japan), P.Gallagher (Ireland), A. Lara (Mexico), N. Lugaz (USA), C. Mostl (Austria), A. Rouillard(France), N. Srivastav (India), Y. Yermolaev (Russia), Y.-M. Wang (China), D. Webb(USA)

An international effort including observations, data analysis , modeling, and transitionfrom science to prediction operation. The ISEST tasks are(1) Create a comprehensive database of Earth-affecting solar and heliospherictransient events(2) Characterize and quantify the kinematic and morphological properties of transientevents(3) Develop advanced theoretical models of the propagation and evolution ofheliospheric transients(4) Develop advanced 3D numerical models of prediction of ICME arrival and theexpected strength of space weather impact(5) Prediction tool development(6) Public outreach and education

1.1

1.2

Next program interval (2014-2018) is a solar maximum and declining phase.

Topics on flare/CME/storm can be approached. Possibility toward the solar ground minimum should be explored.

Lastovicka et al. Science [2006]9

Discrimination of global trends and solar activity

EISCAT observations for 31 years at Tromsø, Norway (69.6 deg N)

Alti

tude

[km

]

Ion temperature variations

Ti(o

bs) -

Ti(f

it) [K

]

Year

Ti_trend = -1.3±0.36 K/year

Thermosphere cooled over the past 31 years

Long-term trends in MTI region

Ti(fit)MgII = A + B·SZA + C·(MgII) + D·(MgII)2

pole equator

aurora

plasmasheet

electromagnetic coupling between E

and F region

plasmasphere

atmospheric waves from aurora

magnetosphere

middle atmosphere

ionosphere

particle and energy input from the magnetosphere

radiation belts

plasma waves

E-field penetration

troposphere

Latitudinal/whole-atmosphere coupling in the atmosphere and geospace

wave breaking momentum release

secondary waves

gravity wavestides planetary waves

tropospheric disturbance

electromagnetic coupling between hemispheres

wave penetration to thermosphere

PMC/PMSE O/N2 ratio change

equatorial fountain

ionospheric instabilities

mesospheric ductmesospheric duct

K. Shiokawa

PSC mass transport

mass transport

mesospheric jet

3.1

Combination of observation and modeling (in space weather)

- Data assimilation for precise forecasting

Nowcast Forecast

Modeling

Data Assimilation

Data processing

Input

Validation

Observation

Atmospheric dynamics for ground-ionosphere electric current

Monthly variation of lightning activity

WAVE-4 structure and lightning activity

Thunderstorm is one of the main generator in the global electric circuit

Japan contribution to SCOSTEP-related outreach/capacity building

Global Contribution ISWI & MAGDAS school

• Nov. 2010 at Egypt, Aug. 2011 at Nigeria, Sep. 2012 at Indonesia, 2013 at Cote d’lvoire (scheduled)

• 5 – 10 lecturers from Japan at each schoolRegional contribution

JSPS Asia-Africa Science Platform Program• 2008-2011 with India & Indonesia (Tsuda)• 2013-2016 with Nigeria, Indonesia, Cote d’lvoire, Thailand

(Shiokawa)Structure for outreach/capacity building

ICSWSE (International Center for Space Weather Science and Education) at Kyushu University (2012-)

IUGONET (Inter-university Upper atmosphere Global Observation NETwork) (2009-2014)• Kyoto U., Nagoya U., Tohoku U., Kyushu U., NIPR

INFRASTRUCTURE- Informatics including big data

Big DataDatabase

User

Big DataDatabase

Super Computer

User

User User

User

User

Super Computer

Big DataDatabase

Super Computer

Data Mining

Data AssimilationSimulation

ModelingData Analysis

R1

ERG

● 　 Launch: 2015/12● 　 Orbit : - apogee altitude: 4.5Re / perigee altitude: 300km - inclination 31°≦ - spin-axis stabilized (sun oriented)● 　 Mission Life : > 1year● 　 Science Instruments: - PPE (Plasma/Particle) - electron detectors LEP-e: 12eV-20keV, MEP-e: 10keV-80keV HEP-e: 70keV-2MeV, XEP-e: 200keV-20MeV - ion detectors with mass discrimination LEP-i: 10eV-20keV/q, MEP-i: 10keV-180keV/q - PWE (DC Electric Field/Plasma Waves) - electric field (DC-10MHz) - magnetic field (1Hz- 100 kHz) - MGF (DC Magnetic Field, 128 Hz sampling)

Strong synergy with ground-network observations, modeling studies, and international spacecraft fleet.

ERG mission will - achieve comprehensive plasma observations with magnetic & electric field, wave, and particle detectors with a wide energy coverage to capture acceleration, transport, and loss of charged particles in Geospace - establish plasma observatory under strong radiation environment.

A mission to elucidate acceleration and loss mechanisms of relativistic electrons around Earth during space storms.

ERG project office: ERG_adm@st4a.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp

• “Hinode”, as on-orbit solar observatory accessible from over the world, will continue scientific operations and provide unique data of the Sun. All the Hinode data is open to any scientists.

EUV Imaging Spectrometer （ EIS ）Solar Optical

Telescope （ SOT）

X-Ray Telescope（ XRT ）

North Polar region 2008 North Polar region 2011

Monitoring the magnetic field at polar regions, which is a key information for solar dynamo.

Hinode

EUV imaging spectroscopic measurements allow to diagnose plasma dynamics in the coronal structures

Fe XII intensity Fe XII Doppler velocity

High spatial resolution images of the corona in soft X-rays (left) and photosphere (right)

Inter-university Upper atmosphere Global Observation NETwork

Various kind, huge amount of data spread over institutes and universities

Create a metadata database for cross-search of these distributed data

Promote new types of upper atmospheric research by analysis of multi-disciplinary data

PANSY(Program of Antarctic Syowa MST/IS) radar:2014 full operation

2009 Funded by MEXT/Japan

March 2011, first light observation

April 2012, started continuous research observation with 1/4 system (largest atmospheric radar in the Antarctic)

2014 Full system operation

20

Troposphere/Stratosphere observation on May 5-8, 2012

20

Main organization: NIPR, U. of Tokyo, Kyoto Univ.

69S, 39E

Conceptional drawing

Implementation plan and current situation

The European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) selected the EISCAT_3D for inclusion in the 2008 update of its Roadmap for Large-Scale European Research Infrastructures. Development of the EISCAT_3D started with the EU FP6 funded Design Study (2005-2009) and is now continued with the EU FP7 funded Preparatory Phase (2010-2014).

Norway and Sweden submitted applications towards construction of the EISCAT_3D in 2012 and 2013. Finnish Roadmap proposal including financing is currently planned. The construction cost is about 132MEuro in total.

Location　　 Northern Scandinavia System configuration

1 core site: ~10,000 cross dipole Yagi antennas & Tx/Rx modules

4 remote sites: ~10,000 cross dipole Yagi antennas & Rx modules at each site

The antenna elements will be built on an elevated platform to prevent problems with snow. (From Swedish national proposal)

EISCAT_3D: The next generation international atmosphere and geospace research radar　

A core site (Tx/Rx) and remote sites (Rx only)

An image of multi-static radar observations

First operation in 2017

EAR

GAW atmosphere monitor stationBoundary layer radar

Airglow imager, F-P interferometer (STEL)Multipurpose lidar (TMU)X-band meteoroligcal radar (Shimane U.)GPE receivers (STEL)

Ionosonde (NICT)

EAR control roomMeteorological measurement

Meteor radar

Equatorial MU radar

We plan to expand the EAR by installing Equatorial MU radar (EMU). The new EMU is the MU-radar class radar that is 10 times more sensitive to the EAR. This plan is included as part of “Japanese Master Plan of Large Research Projects 2011” by Science Council of Japan.

EAR site seen on Google Earth

EMU will be installed at north of EAR

Equatorial MU radarExpansion of Equatorial Atmosphere

Radar (EAR)

radiation belt particles

Pc5 pulsation

VLF chorus

EMIC/Pc1 pulsation

plasmasphere

inje

ctio

n fr

om

plas

ma

shee

t

sun

Van Allen ProbesERGTHEMIS

magnetosphere

solar wind

Energization and loss of radiation belt particles occur in the inner magnetosphere through interaction with various VLF/ULF waves and background field variations.

VLF/ULF waves

THEMIS

LEO satellites

auroral particles

loop antenna

wave-particle interactions

cameraradiation belt particles

aurora

Van Allen ProbesERG

magnetometer

60o

70o

80o

MLAT/MLON MAP

Possible ground stations at subauroral latitudes

K. Shiokawa

Study of energization and loss of high-energy particles in geospace using multi-point ground and satellite network at subauroral latitudes

北海道大　　東北大　　信州大　　気象研　　 NICT 　 極地研　 東京大　名古屋大　 京都大　 九州大　　　

existingplanned

cosmic ray

NOx,O3

NOx,O3

airglow

airglowairglow

Solar telescope

Solar wind

aerosol

SD radar

IPS solar wind

magne/GPSmagne/

GPSmagne/GPS

magne/GPS

aurora wave

MAGDAS magnetomete

rs PANSY

MUR

OMTI airglow

instruments

Multi-point ground network will expand over Asia and Africa

Equatorial MU radarSOLAR-

CERG

IUGONET database

EISCAT_3D radar

R9