inside the rice 038 31 dec 2012 - … · inside the rice 038 31 dec 2012 gaotrade co. ltd gafta...

INSIDE THE RICE 038 31 Dec 2012

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 0044 7799 357 425 [email protected] 1

EU Rice Euro/ton Ex Mill

USD/

MT

Euro

/ton

USD/

MT

Euro

/Mt

$ /Mt Euro

/Mt

15

Nov

2011

15

Nov

2011

12

Dec

2011

12

Dec

2011

31

DEC

2012

31

DEC

2012

ITALIAN Milled Rice ex mill bulk cash Well M 5 % max Broken ¾basis

Originario Round Japonica

700 705 760 585

Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm

755 760 767 590

Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm

650

Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm

875 880 670

Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm

1070 1070 730

INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm

620 630 570

Parboiled Baldo LG Jap

970 980 680

Parboiled INDICA Lg

710 720 640

Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain

360 380 370

Broken ½ grain

370 350

Rice Bran Row

150

Broken less ¼ sortex

330

Egyptian White Medium 5 % Fob FCL Alexandria

730

EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65

EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30

Spain Blanco Japonica MG Sevilla

NA

Russian Rice Future Groat s G 1 -8 % Br WM

Ex Mill Krasnodar

Bulk

615

473

Soft Wheat ex Rouen down

252

Maize ex Bordeaux down

241

Durum Wheat France South port PLN =

295

THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/M

T EURO/MT

USD/ MT

EURO/MT

$ /Mt Euro/

Mt

Thailand milled Long Grain Indica New Crop

Thai White Rice 100% B 630

600 565

Thai White Rice 5% 610

585 550

Thai OLD CROP White Rice 5 %

Na


580 545


575 540


570 535

100 Broken A1 Super 550

545 495

Fragrant A1 Super 560

540 570

Parboiled milled rice 100% Whole long grain Sortexed

600

590 585

Hom Mali 92% Purity or Jasmine Rice Equiv 5% 1075

1075 1070

PAKISTAN FOB Stowed 50 Kg Karachi or

In Container FCL 20 “

$/MT

EURO/MT

$/MT EURO/

MT USD/M

T EURO/

MT

Irri 6 Milled

White Rice Long Grain 5 Sortexed Water 465

455 445

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Flag_of_Spain_(Civil).svg


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


polished

WRLG IRRI 6 with 5 % Brkn sortexed

440

WRLG IRRI 6 with 10 % Brkn WM

425

WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn WMilled

395

WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn Stndrd

400

WR LG 25 max standard Milling

395 373

100% Broken Sortexed Double polished 375

365 343

PK 386 Long Grain 2 %

Na

Super Basmati Milled 2 % Old Crop 970

990 1300

IRRI 9 Milled 2 %

720 715

ParBoiled LG 5 % Broken max SRTXD

450

Small Broken w m d sortexed 1,7 -2,5 mm Human consumption

NA

BASMATI D 98 with 2 % broken

860

INDIA FOB Stowed 50 kg If Container premium $ 15/Mt to Vizag

EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt

Parboiled 106 Long grain milled 5 Srtxd Kandla

510

White Milled Rice LG PR 106 Well Milled Sortexed DP 5

Kandla

520

WR LG PR 106 WM 5% Br Standard Kandla

500

WRLG PR 106 25 % Br R W M Kandla

440

Broken sortexed super PR 106 Kandla

NA

W R IR 64 Long grain 5% DP srtxd Kakinada 450

435 430

W R IR 64 Long grain 5% Standard WM

416

Par Boiled IR 64 Sortex Well milled 5 % Kakinada

420

W R IR 64 L G 15 % well milled

WR IR 64 long grain 25 % well milled 390

410 395

BROWN PARBOILED SORTEXED LG 6 mm

395

BROWN LG IR 64 /IR 36 SRTXD LG 6 mm

400

Super Broken Sortex D P water polished Kernel more than 1,7 MM IR 64

340 Short

Broken less than 2,5 mm well milled human consumption

325 Short

1121 PUSA BASMATI 2 % fob bagged Kandla

1150

Pure Basmati milled 2 % fob bagged Kandla 815

810 1200

Medium Grain Swarna Sortexed 5% DP 5.5 mm max

Kakinada

415 N crop

Med G Swarna 15 % broken Indica WM Kakinada

NA

Med G Swarna 25 % Broken Standard milling RWM

Kakinada

385 New crop

MED G PB SWARNA SRTX WM 5 1001 MG PB SRTX WM 5

395 New Ceop

Milling wheat average local market 15-17000 277-314

Yellow Corn average local market 12-14000 222-259

VIETNAM FOB 50 kg $ EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


LG Milled 5% WM DP ¾ basis 560

495 415

10% Br basis 3/4 WM 555

490 405

15% Br basis 2/3 WM 540

475 395

LG Reasonably Mill 25 % Br basis ½ grain 510

460 380

A1 Super broken Well Milled 450

425 355

Fragrant Broken A1 Super WM DP

410

LG Fragrant Rice WM DP 5% 690

520

LG Jasmine 90 % purity 5 WM D Polished

590

MERCOSUR $ EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt

Mercosur rice Long Grain Milled

Uruguay Long Grain 5% broken Bagged FOB

565

565 640

Uruguay PB Brown LG in Bulk in FCL

570

Uruguay Brown Long Grain FOB bulk FCL

Na

Brazil LG 5 % broken bulk FAS + empty bag on board of vessel $ 10 /t

560

560 Na

Brazil LG 20 % Broken Fas +empty bags On board $ 10/mt

Na

Uruguay Parboiled 5 Sortexed bagged Fob 590

595

Brazil Parboiled 5 Sortexed bulk FAS + empty bags $ 10/ Mt

585

555 565

São Paolo Milled LG Tipo 1 wholeseller 30 Kg bags Local Market

950

1000

Uruguay broken 100 % Srtx FOB Bagged

360

Brazilian Broken FAS Bulk RGS port Bulk

340

PADDY ex mill bulk cash 58 whole grain min

$ EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt

Italy Long Grain Indica Paddy 430 315 385 285 396 310

Brazil Long Grain Indica RGSul 280

286 366

Italy Medium Grain Japonica 365

472 350 406 310

Italy Arborio Paddy LG Japonica 473 370

Italy Round Grain

396 416

310 325

Russian Round Grain Japonica Yield 50 whole grain ex farm

10500 350

355 312

Indian Long Grain Indica ex farm Minimum Support Government

12500 235

Indian Long Grain Indica ex Mill Free Market average North to South

13500 14500

254 268

Egypt Paddy Med/LG Japonica ex farm 400

410 310

Thai Long Grain Indica Gov Price 13800 Bath /Mt

360

517

Thai Fragrant Paddy Gov Price 18000

Bath /Mt 500

China Medium Grain Japonica Govern Price Paddy

444

China early crop LG Future July Paddy

386 413


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Vietnam LG Indica ex Mekong Farm dry

6000 max Dong

311

300 288

Indonesian paddy Indica LG 404

CAMBODIA $ EURO $ EURO $

Euro/ Mt

Cambodia Milled Long Grain FOB bulk

FCL

Fragrant Top quality KDM 5 pct FOB bulk 935

920 935

Milled rice Long Grain Broken 5 % Na

505

Fragrant top Quality KDM C & F Rotterdam

Brown Fragrant Rice FOB

Na

Broken 100 % Well milled FOB

560

Broken 100 % Well milled C & F Rtdm

Na

USA Ex mill bulk $

$ $c/CWT $/MT

LG MILLED N 2 –Broken 4 % TEXAS

595 27.5

LG MILLED N 2 – Broken 4 % Louisiana

26

MEDIUM Californian 1

827 35 771

SHORT GRAIN CALIF n 1

35.5

Parboiled L G L/Tx/Ark average

33 727

Broken Second Heads LG

374 19.5

Broken Second Heads Medium Grain Cal

329 24.5

Brewers Broken LG

17

Brewers Broken California Medium

20

Rice Bran ex mill on truck Louisiana USD /Mt

200

May

2012

2 Sept

2012

24 Oct 2012

10 Nov 2012

10 Dec

27 Dec

Corn USA

Future

5.60

$c/bu 8.11 7.54 7.38 7.29 6.92

Wheat USA

future 6.60 8.73 8.71 8.86 8.39 7.72

Paddy Rice

Future 15 15.01 15.06 14.94 15.20 15.00

Euro /Usd 1.2712 1.2915 1.3266


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


1983 90 95 2000 3 4 5 7 9 2011 12 2013 f

WORLD MILLED RICE ENDING STOCKS MIO MT

CORN ENDING STOCKS

WHEAT ENDING STOCKS

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1988 1989 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

WORLD Consuption Grain MIO MT World end Stocks MIO MT

World end year Stocks MIO MT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

US PADDY CHICAGO $cents


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


PADDY CHICAGO FUTURE $c /CWT USD/Mt Euro/Mt

1 Sept 2011 18.75 413 301

15 Nov 14.75

4 Feb 2012 13.70 303 231

20 March 14.60 322 243

2 April 14.75 325 250

28 May 15.95 351 276

2 July 14.65 323 256

4 August 15.95 351 283

15 September 15.27 336 258

24 October 15.06 332 255

10 November 14.97 330 259

4 December 15.27 336.5 259

27 December 2012 15.07 332.3 251

EUROPEAN MARKET

Basis C & F RTDM in FCL Bulk

Broken Sortexed India USD 390 /Mt

Broken Sortexed DP Pakistan USD 390 /Mt

1/4 less well milled Broken India USD 380 /Mt

Brown Indian Parboiled LG Sortexed USD 465/Mt

Brown Indian Natural LG Sortexed USD 460 /Mt

Egyptian white 100 % Broken “0” USD 430 /Mt

Uruguay Broken Sortexed USD 375 /Mt FOB Vessel in 50 kg pp bags

Paddy sales Milano last week:

New campaign September 2012 -2013 started

Long Japonica (14.500 tons)

Long Indica (8.000 tons)

Round Japonica (7850 tons)

Medium Japonica (500 tons)

Total Italian Cumulative sales from 1 Sept 2012 : 545’000 Mt

2011-12 same period : 564.000 Mt

Total Cumulative EU Imports in the New Campaign 2012 -2013:

From Sept 1 -2012 : 217.000 Mt all grade excluding Broken

Indica Brown LG : 180.000 Mt

100 % Broken Milled rice: 90..000 Mt

Basmati Cumulative EU imports from 1 Sept 2012 (+21 % on last year)

India 94.000 mt

Pakistan 5.000 mt


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


MAIN SHARES ON EU IMPORTED RICE 2012

All varieties and grade included

Countries %

India 30

Thailand 22

Cambodia 11

Pakistan 10

Uruguay 7

USA 6

Argentina 4

Brazil 2

Guyana 2

Vietnam 1.5

Suriname 1.5

Total Import Mt 2012 1.200.000

Total Import Mt 2011 1.400.000

WORLD MARKET

Iran projected to import 1,6 Mio Mt of milled rice in 2012-13

Iraq expected to import in 2013 same 1.2 Mio Mt Milled Rice as last year

South Africa expect to increase the import of Parboiled Rice over 1.1 Mio Mt

Saudi Arabia forecast to increase the Rice Import of about 3 % to 1.3 Mio Mt in 2013

Afghanistan will import 3 % more Milled Rice in 2013 up to 260.000 Mt

South Korea rice imports forecast in 2012/13 are revised to 600,000 metric tons, up 200,000 M tons

Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) official said that under the the MoU Myanmar will export to

Indonesia around 200,000 tons of white rice in January 2013 (if Burma quality is accepted by Bulog)

In Haiti Paddy rice production forecasted to decline to around 89,000 tons in 2012, down about 26%

from last year’s around 120,000 tons, and less than 1/4 of the domestic consumption of over 400,000

tons /year. (First contract already signed with Vinafood in Dec to import 300.000 Mt in 2013)

767

0

11

0

331

54 240

0 0 0

IMPORTED RICE BY VARIETIES /000 Mt last year

Brown Indica Cargo Indica + Japonica Milled Indica Milled Japonica Broken all varieties


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Nigerian Government recruits 180.000 farmers in 10 states to increase Rice plantation in 2013 of

about 240.000 ha

Venezuela Paddy (seeded in June) production is expected at 1.120 Mio Mt (13% more than last year)!!

Peru paddy production in 2012 was higher than last year of about 7 % at 2,8 Mio Mt

Indonesia expect a record rice crop in 2012 -2013

Guyana 2012 Paddy crop reached the 640.000 Mt up 3% on previous year.

Equator paddy production declined in 2012 by 5 % to a 1,4 Mio Mt

Cuba production in 2012 was 11 % more than 2011 crop at 510.000 Mt of Paddy

Bulog explained that national rice stocks reached 2.3 million tons on 15 Dec 2012.

New tender in Iraq awarded to Thai Rice on 80.000 Mt (last Thai price was USD 569/Mt C & F)

Russia Banned Indian Rice Import due to Khapra Beetle found in shipment in Dec 16,2012

EGYPT Indicative level about 1USD = 6.17224 EGP Egyptian Pound 30/12/2012

Egypt is projected to harvest 3.8 million tons of rice in 2012/13, a drop of nearly 11% from a year

earlier, also due to an area decline. The Government of Egypt wants to limit rice area to conserve water.

313

614

432

499 505 500

446 411

440 465 450 460

430 415

220 190

350

300 300

352 345 340 332 310 284

165 170

230

300 270

330 335 325

310 294 273

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 8 9 10 2011 July 2012 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec DEC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 8 9 10 Jul-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 31-Aug 15-Sep 4-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov 4-Dec 24-Dec

VIETNAM WRLG 25 PCT FOB 1/2 grain PAKISTAN WRLG 25 INDIA WRLG 25


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


In 2011-12 paddy surface utilized was 600.000 Ha. Egyptian Government tries to restrict rice planting without

success to about 500,000 hectares.

Milled Rice

2011-12 2010-11

Production 4.250.000 3.100.000

Export official 750.000 200.000

Import 550.000 75.000

Consumptions 3.600.000 3.300.000

End stock 500.000 120.000

Egypt has a TRQ Free agreement with Turkey to import 30.000 Mt Brown Rice and 10.000 Mt Milled

And 80.000 Mt Quota of Broken Rice Milled to European Community at import tax zero

Potential Import market Medium Grain: Jordan 60.000 Mt, Libya 160.000 Mt, Saudi Arabia 60.000

Mt, Sudan 40.000 Mt, Syria 120.000 Mt

USA Indicative level about 1 USD = 0.75663 EUR 30/12/ 2012

RICE (1 Mt =19, 68 Cwt)

Rice Planted acres 000 2010 2011 2012

Total Long Grain 1590 940 1060

Total Medium grain 752 850 646

Calrose Cal Medium only 510 535 490

13 Dec 2012 last week sales

Rice: 75,500 MT down 18% from the prior 4-week average.

Libya 20,000 MT, Panama 13,100 MT, Canada 12,000 MT, El Salvador 8,300 MT, and Guatemala 8,000 MT.

Loaded /Exports: 132,200 MT destinations Japan 26,700 MT, Mexico 24,900 MT, Colombia 14,000 MT,

Panama 13,600 MT, and El Salvador 12,800 MT

Wheat: 651,100 MT up 46 % from the prior 4-week average.

Nigeria 143,000 MT, Japan 123,400 MT, Egypt 110,000 MT, the Philippines 107,600 MT, South Korea

51,800 MT, Venezuela 27,000 MT, and Thailand 23,900 MT.

Corn: 114,400 MT down 65% from the prior 4-week average

China 171,700 MT, Japan 70,700 MT, Saudi Arabia 66,300 MT, Venezuela 30,000 MT, Colombia 13,200

MT, and Mexico 12,400 MT

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 3 6 10 2012

60

75

100

77

60

USA MILLED RICE EXPORT LONG GRAIN MIO CWT MEDIUM GRAIN END YEAR STOCKS


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


PAKISTAN Indicative level about PKR/USD 97.1259 PKR 30/12/ 2012

Paddy Production is projected at a near-record 6.8 million tons, up almost 5% from a year earlier, a

result of both area expansion and a higher yield. Pakistan is projected to export a record 4.0 million tons in

2013, up almost 7 % from a year earlier, a result of large supplies. Milled white rice exports to China have

risen to about 750,000 tons in the year to September 2012 from negligible volumes a year ago.

Registered

EXPORT

July

2010

July

2011

Average

Per

Month

July 2010

July 2011

July 2011

July 2012

Average X

Month

July2011-

July 2012

1 August –

15 Dec 2012

Average x

Momth

August -15

Dec 2012

Var

%

f/d

Average

Price

August

Dec 2012

FOB

Karachi

a b c d e f

Super Basmati 736.000 548.000

PB Basmati 190.300 137.000

Basmati

standard

210.000 208.000

Brown

Basmati

73.000

TOTAL

BASMATI

1.137.950 94.700 968.000 88.660 212.000 47.112 - 46 % 1053 $/Mt

Rice Blended 205.000

Rice IRRI 9 57.000

Rice IRRI 6 2.193.000

Blended PB 24.000

PB IRRI 9 23500

PB IRRI 6 251.000

TOTAL NON

BASMATI

2.563.600 213.500 2.755.000 230.000 868.000 217.000 - 6 % 439 $/Mt

TOTAL 3.701.000 308.000 3.723.000 310.000 1.080.000 240.000

July 2011 - July 2012

Non Basmati Export Main Destination

Official Figures

Mt Mt

Angola 18.000 Malaysia 139.000

Benin 47.000 Mauritania 30.000

Cameroon 15.000 Mozambique 123.000

Indonesia 72.000 Philippines 103.000

Ivory Coast 52.000 Senegal 75.000

Kenya 360.000 Sierra Leone 59.000

Madagascar 118.000 Somalia 20.000

Togo 45.000 S Africa Rep 11.000

Zimbawe 13.000 Tanzania 55.000

CHINA 750.000 Comoros 40.000

Egypt 70.000 Gambia 24.000


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Loading Activity

18’000 Mt Broken

11’000 Mt Parboiled (sailed 25 Dec)

41’000 Mt for W. Africa Wr 25

19’000 Mt Br + WR 25

THAILAND Indicative level about 1 USD = 30.3439 THB Thai Baht 30/12/ 2012

THAILAND EXPORT FIGURES /000 Mt Milled 2011/2012

Paddy production projected to harvest a record 26.5-million tons crop in 2012/13,

Thailand is projected to harvest a record 21.05 million tons of rice, up 3% from a year earlier,

a result of both record area/ record yield/record paddy price.

2012-13 Main Season Crop expect short of about 10 % compared to last year (Fragrant crop will be affected

more)

Total Exports Jan –31 Oct - 2011 was 9.630.000 Mt (Including Fragrant)

Last week (excl. Fragrant) 52.000Mt sold

Total Exports 1st January up to Dec 10, 2012: 4.720,000 Mt (White and Parboiled)

Or 6.550.000 Mt (White + Parboiled + Fragrant)

Total Imports Official figures: Jan –Nov 30, 2012: 400.000 Mt Milled Rice and Broken

2012/13 PADDY PLEDGING PROGRAM:

The Committee on Rice Stock Release agreed on November 16, 2012 to sell 1.1 million metric tons of

government rice stocks for export (mainly Fragrant)

In October 2012 the Thai government approved a USD 8 Billion founds to cover only the 2012-13 main crop

Pledge Program to be utilized between Oct 1 -2012 and 28 February 2013 covering 15 Mio Mt paddy (10 Mio

Milled Rice) Main Crop.

The Thai Government is currently holding total intervention stocks of around 13 million metric tons;

plus 0,5 Mio Mt of old-crop rice. The 2011/12 Paddy Pledging Program pledged 21.5 million metric tons of

paddy (14.2 million metric tons milled equivalent); of which 7.0 million metric tons are main-crop paddy (4.6

million M. Tons milled) and 14.5 million M tons are off-season crop paddy (9.6 million MT milled T).

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

TOTAL EXPORT / MONTH MT THAILAND 2011-2012


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Thailand Export Rice 000 Mt

2008 10.000

2009 8.570

2010 9.050

2011 10.500

2012 6.700

Expected quantity in Stock end of

October 2012

MT Milled

Delivered to

Government

Broken

Included

in totals

Notes

White milled & broken 8.500.000 2.374.000

Fragrant Milled & Home Mali

2.000.000

400.000

Glutinous Milled 400.000 72.000

Pending with Millers Paddy & Milled

Undelivered 2.000.000

Total Pledged 2011-12 Crop 13.100.000

Old Crop In Government Stocks

Min MT 400.000

Or less

INDIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 54.6890 INR Indian Rupee 30/12/2012

Paddy Production is projected at a near-record 102.5 million T, down 1% from a year earlier, with

both area and yield forecast to be slightly smaller in 2012/13.

Price stay firm in Andhra Pradesh and other South India due to the Government procurements under

way. New crop IR 64 and other Long grain Rice still far in March April

Milled Rice & paddy purchases by central pool (in MIO tons paddy equivalent ) 15 Dec 2012

Food Corp India

Punjab 8.5

Andhra 8.0

Chhattisgarh 4.4

Uttar Pradesh 4.0

Orissa 3.0

0

50

100

150

200

250 198 208 217 230 234 218 244 250

95 102 96

INDIA TOTAL PRODUCTION GRAINS Million Mt WHEAT PADDY


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Haryana 2.7

West Bengal 2.0

Others 7.2

The yield of rice, a major kharif crop, expected to decrease by 4% to 2,185 kg per hectare in the 2012-

13 season from 2,284 kg/hectare in the year-ago period. Based on the latest trade reports, the 2011/12 non

Basmati and Basmati rice total exports estimate to 10.4 million tons includes 7 million tons non-basmati and 3

million tons Basmati rice. Raby (second Rice Crop) sowing area expected to be lower than last year at 11 Mio

Ha against 14 Mio Ha seeded last year.

Crop Ha seeded 2012 -13 Normal average Ha

Forecast

Rice 35,000,000 36,126,000

Coarse Grain 17,593,000 17,615,000

Pulses 11,500,000 10,923,000

1st Nov 2012: Wheat stockpiles increased to 47.5 million tons from 35.9 million tons a year earlier.

Rice inventory was 28.5 million tons, compared with 25.3 million tons a year earlier.

LOADING ACTIVITY Indian Port 2012

Kakinada Port : 10 vessels are under loading RICE AND CORN

Only 127.000 Mt of rice to be loaded on total available vessel space 5 vessels to load WHITE RICE & Broken

3 vessels to load PB Srtx

2 vessels to load MAIZE

1 vessel in Krishna WR 15 –Indonesia (15000 Mt)

Kandla Port (all Varieties rice including Basmati)

1 Mv 28.000 Mt sailed 25 Dec

1 Mv 32.000 waiting to start loading

1 Mv 25.000 waiting to start

1 Mv 50.000 waiting to start

Aromatic Rice Local Market India

NEW DELHI Market, Dec. 20:

Paddy arrivals dropped drastically to just around 15,000 bags end last week at the Grain Market

Terminal against the arrivals of around 40,000 bags at the beginning of the week /day

A major fall was seen in the arrivals of PR varieties as these varieties are now drying up. Arrivals of

aromatic varieties have almost halved and are likely to remain sluggish in the upcoming weeks.

Trade experts expect that market may rule firm around current levels for the next few days and then it

may witness another spike

Varieties Price Free on truck New Delhi market

Pusa-1121 (steam) from Rs 6100 to 7000

Pusa-1121 (PB sela) from Rs 5350 to 5900

Basmati Pure Milled (raw) from at Rs 7000 to 8000

Duplicated basmati from Rs 5125 to 5600

Pusa Basmati white frm Rs 5500 to 5800

Brokens of Pusa-1121, Rs 2750

Dubar broken R 2700


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Mongra broken Rs 2250

PR-14 (steam) Rs 2800

Sharbati (steam) from Rs 3500 to 4200

Sharbati PB Sela Sharbati (white) from Rs 3800 to 4400

Permal PB (sela) from Rs 2200 to 2250

Permal Milled (raw) from Rs 2100 to 2250

PR-11 (PB sela) from Rs 2600 to 2750

PR-11 (Raw White ) from Rs 2,550 to 2650

India's Basmati rice exports stood at a record 3.21 million tons in 2011-12 against 2.18 million tons

previous year. While, with the fall in rupee against US dollar, the export revenue grew 29% during the period

to $3.22 billion against $2.49 billion last year. Acreage under basmati rice in Punjab this year is expected to

reach 750,000-800,000 hectares (ha) compared to 680,000 ha last year. Haryana, area under premium rice

variety is expected to rise to 60-65% of the total paddy area of 1.8 million ha. India is the world's largest

exporter of basmati rice is expected and is expected produced around 7.5 million tons.

Huge Storage foodgrain problem in Haryana

"Storage plays a key role as far as nutritional value especially rice, is concerned. Poor storage has resulted in

high downgrading of quality."

Stock position Haryana

Total stock | 95.13 lakh tonne

Stored in open | 60.83 lakh tonne (6.083.000 Mt)

Stored in go-downs | 34.29 lakh tonne Old stock | 39.36 lakh tonne (3.936 .000 Mt)

Agencies involved: FCI, Food & Supplies Department, Haryana Agro Industries Limited, Confed, Hafed and

Haryana Warehousing Corporation

YEAR Rice PRODUCTION Mio Mt Population Mio Mt/capita

1950 20.58 350 ............... 0.0588

2001 93.08 1.015............... 0.0917

2012 103.00 1.190 ................ 0.0865

VIETNAM Indicative level about 1 USD = 20,489.20 VND Vietnamese Dong 30/12/2012

Forecast for Vietnam’s total paddy rice production for 2012/2013 from 43.29 million tons to 44.34

million tons, mainly to due to favorable weather conditions during planting that is allowing for expanded

crops in the MRD, especially spring and autumn crops, the two main crops in the region.

ENDING YEAR STOCK forecast up from 1.86 Mio Mt milled rice in 2011-12 to an expected 2.67

MIO MT in 2012-13 campaign (1,470 Mio Mt in 2010-2011)

Vietnam Export Mt Rice

Trend 000 MT

2008 4690

2009 5950

2010 6730

2011 7000

2012 7500

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/Haryana-Warehousing-Corporation


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Vietnam’s total rice exports 1st January to 30 Dec 2012: 7.500.000 tons Milled basis

In HCM port 170,000 tons under load this week.

Ending stocks of rice this year is expected to be around 800,000 tons, the lowest in over 10 years.

Malaysia contract under loading

Indonesia previous 300.000 mt contract under load

Haiti signed a new contract 300.000 Mt with VFA for 2013 first quarter deliveries

September 25th

, traders in An Giang bought fresh paddy of low-quality IR 50404 for VND4,800-4,900/kilo,

with price even lower at about VND4,300-4,500/kilo

Monday 22 October , traders in An Giang & Vinh Long Provinces paid VND5,800 /kg for normal rice variety

and VND6,500/kg for the fragrant variety.

November 27, dry paddy rice in stock in the Mekong River Deltal is around 5,900 – 6,050 VND per kilogram

while long- paddy rice brings 6,100 – 6,250 VND /kg

EXCHANGE RATE USD VS DONG

Milled Rice Per capita

Compared to other countries in Southeast Asia, the Vietnamese consume most of the rice that they

produce, or about 90%. According to the survey of Viet Nam’s Ministry of Health (MOH), the total daily

food consumption was 388 grams/person. About 376 grams of rice are equivalent to 135 kilograms

(kg)/person/year. The Vietnamese need about 2,400 kilocalories (kcal)/person/day, of which 1,400 kcal is

sourced from rice. Total domestic demand or utilization of rice consists of food (75%), processing (13%),

cattle feed (8%), and seed (4%). Food consumption gradually increased from about 9.8 million tons in 1995 to

11.7 million tons in 2011.

25 Dec 2012

Rice export prices are stable at low levels now in the absence of large rice export orders, said rice

exporters. According to VFA, in the first 2 weeks this month, local exporters delivered over 235,100 tons of

rice. Vietnam had exported more than 7.3 million tons of rice as of December 15 but forecasts decline in rice

exports in 2013. Vietnam Food Association envisages many difficulties and challenges for the country’s rice

exports in the coming year. According to the association, Vietnam will face serious competition from

Myanmar and Thailand in 2013. Besides this, some countries are expected to reduce import of rice.

Indonesia said that they might not import rice at all or may minimize the volume because of excess stock at

hand, having purchased 1.7 million tons this year. Malaysia also has rice in stock and will not import in the

first quarter.

China too has signed an agreement to buy rice from Thailand, which will be a serious loss as at the

moment China is the biggest exporter of rice from Vietnam. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural

Development is planning to buy rice for stockpile during the winter spring crop and will submit the plan to the

Government for approval.


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


The ministry has also asked provinces in the Mekong Delta to reduce rice cultivation area in the next

summer-autumn crop to balance supply and demand. The Government is scheduled to stockpile 2.5 million

tons of rice in the coming winter-spring and summer-autumn crops.

According to Vietnam Food Association, the country has exported more than 7.3 million tons of rice

since the beginning of this year, which is 195,000 tons higher than last year. However the export turnover

reached only US$3.3 billion, which is $400 million lower than last year

R I C E E X P O R T S F R O M V I E T N A M

LOADING ACTIVITY

Ho Chi Minh Port: only 168.000 Mt under load

5 Malaysia (35.000 Mt)

11 Indonesia (133.000 Mt)

MYANMAR Indicative level About 1USD = 838.008 MMK Myanmar Kyat 30/12/2012

Population: 54.5 Mio Habitants Per Capita Consumption: 199 Kg Milled Rice/cap/year

Need in Milled Rice/Year 10.4 Mio Mt Yield in Mt /Ha Paddy: 4.1 Mt /Ha

5.2 Mio Rural Agricultural households Average Farm size: 6 acres

2012-2013 Paddy production is projected at 11.0 million tons, nearly 2% above a year earlier, a result of a

record yield. Burma’s area remains below levels reached prior to 2011/12 largely due to switch area to pulses.

Acres Max Acres Min

Rain Season 40.000 40.000 May Nov

Summer Crop 57.000 20.000 Jan July

Winter Crop 50.000 10.000 Sept Dec

In 2012/2013 Paddy production is expected to increase to 17.3 MMT (10,4 MMT Milled) or a 2.6%

increase from 2011/2012.

In 2011/12 total Milled rice consumption estimated to be 9.98 MMT and for 2012/2013: 10.4MT.

In 2012/13 Burma’s Corn production is forecast to increase from 1.3 MMT to 1.5 MMT as the

growing area will increase 1.3% from 380,000 to 385,000 ha and the average yield will increase 15% from 3.4

MT/ha to 3.9 MT/ha driven by high demand from domestic feed mills and China.

In 2012/2013, Burma’s Beans & Pulses production is estimated at 4.7 MMT up 5.5% from 4.5 MMT

in 2011/12 due to an increase in production area of 1.2% and as yields normalize as weather conditions

improve. Burma will export 1.4 MMT of beans and pulses.

LOADING ACTIVITY

3 Vessels expected to load in Yangon between 25 Dec -20 January approx.

70-75000 Mt of Emata Wr 25 already committed.

CAMBODIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 3.950.75 KHR Cambodian Riel 30/12/2012

2012-2013 Paddy record production is forecast at a record 4.5 million tons, up 5% from a year earlier,

mostly due to expanded area.


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Cambodia is projected to export a record 950,000 tons of rice in 2013, up 19% from the year-earlier

revised level. The increase is primarily due to large supplies to Vietnam and Thailand in Paddy and white

milled rice /broken.

AUSTRALIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 0.96397 AUD Australian Dollar 30/12/2012

Recent Reports: In 2012-13 is projected to produce 720,000 tons of rice, almost 5% above a year earlier and

the largest crop since 2001/02. The larger crop is the result of expanded area.

Australia’s exports are projected to increase 11% to 500,000 tons in 2013, the highest since 2001 and the

result of larger supplies (450.000 Mt exported in 2012)

The area planted to rice is forecast to rise by 12% to around 121 000 hectares, which largely reflects

plentiful supplies of irrigation water.

Summer crops:

Cotton : 442 000 ha

Sorghum: 762 000 ha

Rice : 121 000 ha

Product 2011/12 2012-13 Forecast Milled Rice 688.000 720.000

Wheat 29.000.000 27.000.000

Barley 8.500.000 8.000.000

Sorghum 2.650.000 2.500.000

AFGANISTAN Indicative level about 1 USD = 51.9800 AFN Afghanistan Afghani 30/12/2012

Forecasts Afghanistan 2012/13 rice production at 350,000 metric tons from a harvested area of 205,000 ha

The production forecast is a 3% increase from the previous year on good precipitation.

2012/13 rice import could reach 260,000 metric tons, a 4% increase from the previous year, due to a growing

demand for rice. Pakistan is the primary source of imported rice, capturing more than an estimated 95% of the

market. Kazakhstan rice donations are an important component of the market, accounting for 5 to 15

thousand tons annually. Rice consumption forecast in 2012-13 at 610,000 metric tons, a 4% increase over the

previous year on continued increasing consumer demand for rice in urban areas. In general, Afghan

consumers prefer the imported Super Kernel Basmati because of the taste and cooking characteristics.

Basmati rice constitutes 85% of total rice imports.

SOUTH KOREA Indicative level about 1 USD = 1,066.33 KRW South Korean Won 30/12/2012

2012 rice production estimate of 4.07 (Mio MT) based on a nationwide survey September, 2012.

The estimate places Korean rice production for 2012 at its lowest since 1980 and down 3.5% (150,000

tons) from last year. Harvested acreage at 849,172 HA, which is a 0.5% decline from the previous year, down

2% from previous estimated acreage. Furthermore, anticipated lower yields due to three strong typhoons in

late August – September during the critical period of filling stage resulted in the lowest

The damaged area reached 110,000 hectare or 13 % of total paddy area. Between October and

December 2012, The Korean government purchased 370,000 MT (milled basis) of paddy rice representing 9%

of the 2012 rice crop estimate.

http://www.google.fr/imgres?imgurl=http://www.sabrecoreen.com/photos/Photos%25202010-2011/drapeau%2520coree%2520sud.png&imgrefurl=http://www.sabrecoreen.com/coree.html&h=400&w=600&sz=17&tbnid=w0ueDFH80KjdEM:&tbnh=80&tbnw=120&prev=/search%3Fq%3Ddrapeau%2Bde%2Bla%2Bcor%25C3%25A9e%2Bsud%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=drapeau+de+la+cor%C3%A9e+sud&usg=__rladXF4EtbMLZjI9xaD6zShFp7U=&docid=jUAvx3oJOKnhJM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=VjrgULzEBMW70QWrjIHIAQ&ved=0CFYQ9QEwBQ&dur=765


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2011/12 Ending stocks are expected to decrease to 0.6 Million tons, down 27% from the previous

estimate due mainly to lower imports of 2012.

Rice Imports forecast in 2012/13 is revised to 600,000 metric tons, up 200,000 metric tons from the previous

forecast.

IRAQ

Indicative level about 1 USD = 1,138.84 IQD Iraqi Dinar 30/12/2012

Food Consumer Price Index moved up 7 % in the last 12 Months

Forecast of cereal import requirements in marketing year 2012/13 (July/June) is put at a new record

high level of 5.3 million tonnes, including 3.7 million tonnes of wheat and 1.3 million tonnes of rice. Large

import requirements are driven by Iraq’s aim to maintain three to 6 months supply of wheat in its food stocks,

as well as commitment to supply each Iraqi citizen with 9 kg of flour monthly. In addition, given the lower

levels of domestic wheat production, the need to maintain adequate supplies of feed wheat and the country’s

intention to improve wheat flour quality .Iraqi flour imports increased by 42% between 2010/11 and 2011/12,

reaching 1.4 million.

IRAN Indicative level about 1 USD = 12,052.20 IRR Iranian Rial 30/12/2012

Food price increased 25 % in last 12 months

Facing budgetary concerns, the Government attempted to phase out the subsidy program. Although

some subsidies for staples (milk, bread, rice, vegetables, yoghurt) remained in place.

Rice crop 2012-132 forecast same level of last year of about 2.400.000 Mt paddy basis.

INDONESIA Indicative level about 9,633.91 IDR Indonesian Rupiah – 30/12/2012

130.000 Mt of Indian WR LG Rice 15 % to be shipped before 15 Dec 2012 out of Indian Port

300-400 000 Mt Contract was signed beginning September with Vietnam but another large contract

is under discussion in HCMC for prompt shipment -no results (400.000 Mt)

2010-2011 Mt 2011-12 Mt 2012-13 Mt

forecast

Paddy

equivalent Mt

Milled Rice Production 35.500 36.500 36.900 72.000

End Stocks Milled Rice 6.175 4.600 2.950

Import Milled Rice 3.000 1.700 1.400

2011-12.Indonesia has extended a (MoU) with Vietnam covering 1.5 million tons of rice/year 2013-

2017. The head of Indonesia’s rice-buying agency Bulog said the agency has 2.2 million tons of rice in Bulog

stockpiles. Stocks will move down to 1.1-1.5 by year-end. 2013 calendar year Bulog expected to buy 3.9

million tons of rice.

Bulog distributed a total of 3.15 MMT of Raskin rice to 17.5 million poor families. Each family

received 15 kg of rice/month at the price of Rp. 1,600 /kg. As of early July 2012, Bulog has distributed a total

of 1.7 MMT of rice under this Raskin program.


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Indonesian rice total imports will increase to 1.7 million metric tons before end 2012. The government

recently granted the Indonesian National Logistics Agency (Bulog) permission to import enough rice to

achieve 2 MMT in stocks through the end of 2011/12(record high)

2012 - Paddy price average/ month ex

farm gate IR /Kg Prices

January 4,475.32 ($ 459/ Mt)

February 4,232.68

March 3,692.51

April 3,797.13

May 3,902.53

June 3,932.23

July 3,957.75

August 3,929.02

September 3,985.83

October 4,001.83 ($ 442 / Mt)

Milled Rice Wholesale prices remain at high levels, despite seasonable declines.

March 2010 7’500 Rps/Kg

Jan 2011 9’000 Rps/Kg

Jan 2012 10.500 Rps/Kg (USD 1100/Mt)

PHILIPPINES Indicative level about 1 USD = 41.0260 PHP Philippine Peso – 30/12/2012

The Bureau of Agricultural (BAS) has projected that paddy production for the second half of 2012 is forecast

at 9.92 million MT, 8.9% higher than last year’s level of 9.11 million MT.

Commodity Specification

Wholesale

December 07

Retail

December 07)

Supermarket/ Groceries /

December 07

Prevailing High Prevailing

High Low High

RICE

NFA, Well milled

- - 27.00 - - - -

NFA, Premium

- - 32.00 32.00 - -

Commercial, Regular

milled 28.40 30.00 30.00 33.00 37.25 -

Commercial, Well milled

30.40 32.00 35.00 36.00 37.00 40.75

Commercial, Premium

33.00 34.00 40.00 42.00 41.88 45.00

Commercial, Special

36.00 42.00 45.00 60.00 43.38 59.00

The total rice stock as of November 1, 2012 was 2.78 million metric tons. The volume of stocks was

39.3% more than last month’s level of 2.00 million metric tons but 13.4% below last year’s record of

3.21 million metric tons.

Percentage change in the inventory of rice stocks, Philippines, October 2012 and November 2011-2012

November 1, 2012 / October1, 2012 Variation on Last Year Nov

TOTAL STOCK 2.790.000 Mt (-13.4 % )

Household 54.2 % 8.7

Commercial 39.9 % 9.8

NFA 11.2 % (-52.3 % )


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Paddy ex farm gate (Ps /kg ) 2011-12 Crop average:

May 16,67/kg

June 17,00/kg + 7,6 % on last year

Sept 16,46 /Kg

Oct 24 16.07 /Kg

Nov 30 16.20 /kg (USD 396 /Mt)

SOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA Production Milled Rice Trend South & Central America (x 000 MT)

2010/11 2011/2012 2012/13 Forecast

Argentina 1,118 1,008

Brazil 9,300 7,888 7,320

Colombia 1,323 1,430 1,591

Cuba 295 338 338

Dominican Republic 562 573 573

Ecuador 900 624 600

Guyana 361 402 410

Mexico 146 125 153

Peru 1,939 1,666 2,001

Uruguay 1,150 931 840

Venezuela 358 380 385

BRAZIL Indicative level about 1 USD = 2.04570 BRL Brazilian Real 30/12/2012

Brazil’s 2012/13 Milled Rice production forecast lowered by 850,000 tons to 7.3 million based on a

much lower area estimate. At 2.4 million hectares, Brazil’s rice area is 350,000 hectares below a year earlier

and the lowest in more than a half a century.

000 MT 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 FORCAST

Wheat production 5’700 5’000 6’000

Corn production 57’000 62’000 68’000

Rice milled production 9’300 7’800 7’300

Rice export 1’300 1.100 800

TIPO 1 Brazil Paddy Pelotas ex farm gate:

(RS 50/ kg 28,95 R/50Kg 1st week August 2012

Rs 36.30/50 kgs (USD 355/Mt) last week Dec 2012

White rice Sao Paolo Type 1 /30 kg sold at USD 1000/Mt (wholesale)

Brazil’s paddy rice production in 2012 reached 11.6 million tons, down almost 15% from 13.6 million tons in

2011, mainly because of lower acreage due to high production costs (FAO).

URUGUAY Indicative level about 1 USD = 18.6439 UYU Uruguayan Peso 30/12/2012

http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://coupedumonde.pubfoot.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/uruguay-drapeau1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://coupedumonde.pubfoot.com/6225/uruguay-logo-et-sonnerie-pour-lequipe-du-mondial-2010/&h=200&w=300&sz=8&tbnid=GlFrayLtSWsbvM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=135&prev=/search?q=drapeau+uruguay&tbm=isch&tbo=u&zoom=1&q=drapeau+uruguay&docid=zpvfWfeMgnBlPM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=W9VdT960Eoqy0QXOyty9DQ&sqi=2&ved=0CDEQ9QEwAg&dur=1654


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Rice production trend

EXPORT FIGURES 2011-2012

2012 Export Jan –Dec MT Main Destination Shares Share in % on total

Paddy Rice 110.000 Middle East 22

Brown Rice Natural & Parboiled 96.000 Africa 16

Mille4d Parboiled 54.000 Europe 9

White Rice all Grade 650.000 Souh America 45

100 pct Broken Rice 110.000 Others 8

Total Export 1.020.000 100 %

ARGENTINA Indicative level about 1 USD = 4.84022 ARS Argentine Peso – 30/12/2012

All grain trend 2011 -2012

2012 Production

2011-12

Production

2010-11

Export

2012

End Year

Stocks 2012

End Year

Stocks 2011

Milled Rice 1.000.000 1.100.000 650.000 90.000 150.000 Pro-rata at

Mills

Wheat 15.000.000 17.000.000 12.800.000 960.000 4.000.000

Barley 4.300.000 2.950.000 3.500.000 300.000 530.000

Corn 21.000.000 25.000.000 17.000.000 1.400.000 4.100.000

Spring rice planting completed. However, rains in Argentina have been erratic and have caused

flooding in some areas, with analysts estimating the weather will reduce crop quality and quantity

Rice Production for 2011/12 is estimated somewhat lower at 1.47 million tons (PADDY) as average

yields in the northern part of the country was a little bit worse than expected

0

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1800

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2011 2012

RICE Uruguay Production x 000


GAOTRADE CO. LTD


Rice Production Trend and Forecast

Year Htrs Paddy Mt

2009-2010 215,000 Htrs 1,459,000 Mt

2010 -2011 258,000 Htrs 1,751.000 Mt

2011-2012 216,800 Htss 1,470.000 Mt

2012-2013 200,000 Htrs 1.350.000 Mt ( 820.000 Mt Milled Rice )

Exports 2012 Jan -2012

Dec

Share in %

on total

Main Destinations

2012 Quantity MT

White Milled Rice 52 Brazil 280.000

Brown Rice Natural &

Parboiled 30 Iraq 84.000

100 Broken white Rice 14 Senegal 54.000 100 Broken

Paddy Rice 6 Netherland 42.000 Brown

Chile 50.000

Venezuela 30.000 Paddy

Peru 18.000

Portugal & Spain 12.000 Brown

Total Exported quantity MT 650.000

VENEZUELA Indicative Level around 1 USD = 4.28768 Venezuelan Bolivar Fuerte VEF 30/12/2012

In Venezuela local retailers raised price on pre-cooked corn flour, white rice and ground coffee by as much as

46 percent, Agriculture Minister Juan Carlos Loyo said. The cost of a kilogram of pre-cooked corn flour rose

46% to 5.93 bolivars ($1.38) from 4.06 bolivars and a kilogram of white rice rose 28% to 7.2 bolivars ($ 1680

Mt) from 5.62 bolivars,($ 1310 Mt). According to Fedeagro, rough rice production for 2012/13 is estimated

at 567,000 MT as producers plan to boost rice planting because of more favorable Government policies to

support grain crops.

Ministry of Food and Corporation says paddy rice imports could reach around 625,000 tons (about

420,000 tons, basis milled) this year, in the next campaign. A total of 429,000 tons of paddy rice was

imported up to end May 2012.

The production of paddy rice during 2011-12 was 570, 000 Mt, more or less the same as last year.

Actually, production reaches 53% of the national need.

Consumption in 2010/11 reached 644,000 MT of milled rice. Consumption is estimated to be

650,000 MT in 2011/12 supported by continued imports by the government, and grow slightly with

population to 655,000 in 2012/13.

COLOMBIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 1,772.00 COP Colombian Peso 30/12/2012

http://topics.bloomberg.com/venezuela/

http://www.google.it/imgres?imgurl=http://www.enchantedlearning.com/southamerica/venezuela/flag/Flagbig.GIF&imgrefurl=http://www.enchantedlearning.com/southamerica/venezuela/flag/&h=313&w=451&sz=10&tbnid=PBoE1utofJquPM:&tbnh=83&tbnw=120&prev=/search?q=venezuela+flag&tbm=isch&tbo=u&zoom=1&q=venezuela+flag&usg=__tqDXcZCMociRhBdsGLSu7aw6wO8=&docid=4zGJEYQBUfu-2M&hl=en&sa=X&ei=ewIQUO6WNc3CtAamxoGwDg&ved=0CGMQ9QEwAg&dur=920


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29/11/2012 - 82 000 tons of rice from USA has been programmed for 1st week of February 2013. The

Minister of Agriculture explained that these purchases have been authorized because of climatic and fito-

sanitary problems which reduced of more than 20% the production area of rice in 2012. He explained that

160.000 tons will arrive in the country between November and December this year and January/February

2013. These volumes correspond to the contingents of the TLC between Columbia and USA. From the

countries of the Andes community (CAN) that produce rice (Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru) 90.000 tons came in

to complete the needs of the country for March, April and May 2013. In 2011, the rice production in

Columbia felt to 2 million tons in 2010. For 2012, the harvest is expected at 2.7 million tons.

The Price/kg went from 2.349 a 2.436 pesos, therefore an increase of 3,7%. The price variation during

the last 12 months has increased of 11,74 %.

In 2011/2012, Colombian rice area increased by 12% to 470,000 ha, and paddy rice production is

expected to increase by 157,000 tons to 2.1 million tons paddy. Forecast for 2012/2013 is for rice production

to increase to 2.2 million tons of paddy rice

PERU Indicative level about 1 USD = 2.48648 PEN Peruvian Nuevo Sol 30/12/2012

Milled Rice 000 Mt 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Forecast

Production 2080 2000 1650

Consumption 2000 2100 2000

End stocks 170 65 25

Total Imports 91 180 250

Production: Rice production for 2012-13 is forecast to decrease 14% to 1.68 MMT (milled basis).

Harvested area for 2012 is estimated at 350,000 hectares. Expected 220.000 Mt Import in 2012:

Milled Production trend Year End Stocks

2009-10 1,840,000 Mt 170,000 Mt

2010-11 1,950.000 Mt 65,000 Mt

2011-12 1,670,000 Mt 30.000 Mt

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MILLED RICE PRODUCTION 000 MT END STOCKS CONSUMPTION

http://www.google.fr/imgres?imgurl=http://50degresauperou.fr/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/drapeau-Perou.gif&imgrefurl=http://50degresauperou.fr/?attachment_id%3D60&h=318&w=478&sz=12&tbnid=Lvssy24iQEstWM:&tbnh=81&tbnw=122&prev=/search%3Fq%3Ddrapeau%2Bperuvien%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=drapeau+peruvien&usg=__xTAWw_RUHXRxbzRzFPnh6ESwmb0=&docid=djfvA7nOSARp_M&hl=en&sa=X&ei=8jjgUMPDOaWm0QXuyoGwBA&ved=0CFYQ9QEwBA&dur=1092


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Import 2012 Mt milled rice

January 27000

February 10000

March 22000

April 16000

May 14000

June 22000

July 17000

August 24000

September 28000

October 18400

November 23000

December 15 9700

EQUADOR

The 2012 main season rice crop affected by pest attacks and heavy rains

Paddy Production 1.400.000 Mt less 5 % on last year

Prices of rice increased in the past few months reflecting deteriorating prospects for the 2012 main

season’s rice crop. In Quito, rice prices in September averaged USD 1.02 /kg and were 20% higher than a

year earlier.

GUAYANA About 1 USD = 200.000 Guayanese Dollar GYD

Rice production increased 11% last year to reach its highest ever level of 401,000 tonnes

Last year, Guyana and Venezuela signed a US$54 million agreement for the supply of rice. That deal

also extended and revised three previous contracts. More than 160, 000 tonnes of the Guyana‘s rice exports

went to the neighbouring country.

Planting of the 2012 second (autumn) paddy crop season was completed in June under satisfactory weather

and providing favorable growing conditions in the reminder of the season, a normal crop is anticipated. 2012

rice production (autumn and spring crops) of about 634 000 tons, 3% higher than the bumper crop of 2011,

reflecting higher plantings and yields. The Government is promoting rice cultivation in the Savannah lands as

an alternative to coastal areas, where most of the rice is currently cultivated but which have been increasingly

affected by flooding.

000 Mt Paddy

Production

000 Milled Rice Export Milled

000 Mt

2004 510 325 243

2005 420 270 180

2006 472 307 200

2007 450 295 270

2009 553 358 260

2010 556 360 260

2012 640 400 280-300

2013 630 380 na


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CHINA

Indicative level about 1 USD = 6.30651 CNY Chinese Yuan Renminbi – 30/12/2012

Projected to produce a record 141 million tons of rice in 2012/13, up fractionally from a year earlier, a result

of expanded area. At 30.15 million hectares, China’s rice area is the highest since 1999/2000.

In the 2012/2013 crop year, planted paddy acreage and paddy production are estimated to be 30.352 million

hectares and 203.8 million MT, up 0.42% and 1.76% respectively on the year-on-year basis.

Paddy consumption for rice production and feed use may be 202.9 million MT, 1.41% more than last year.

CHINA Milled RICE FIGURES -2011- 2012 (000 MT)

Output 122.541 Milled rice all varieties

Imports 2.700

Total supply 125.200 out of which

Food 112.000 out of which

Household 79.600

Catering and baking 30.800

Food ind 3.200

Feed 7.200

Total domestic consumption 122.800 Exports 450

China still using the lowest amount of fertilizer per Ha to reach one of the highest Paddy production/Hectare .

FERTILIZER USE

Countries N (Kg/hectare) P2O(Kg/ha) K2O(Kg/ha) Total(Kg/ha) Productivity in

2010(Mt/paddy/ha)

1. China 63.6 20.1 9.0 92.7 6.5

2. Vietnam 96.9 60.9 37.6 195.5 5.2

3. Indonesia 56.6 11.0 17.7 85.3 4.8

4. Bangladesh 126.2 8.6 5.4 140.2 4.1

5. India 84.0 36.2 18.4 138.6 3.2

Grain Per Capita Consumption Trend in China kg /habitant/year (China Official Statistics)

Rural area Paddy Rice Wheat

2000 123 77

2006 113 68

2010 102 58

Urban area

2000 46 16

2005 42 12

2010 40 11

China imported 2.6 million tons of rice in the first 12 months of 2012, sources reported, citing statistics from

General Administration of Customs.


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PADDY TREND 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Yuan /Mt Yuan /Mt Yuan /Mt

INDICA PADDY 1800 2100 2750

JAPONICA

PADDY 2300 2700 3000

The acreage for growing grain crops is expected to expand by 733,000 hectares to 111 million hectares during

2012-2013 campaign.

China Paddy Futures

Indica Early Crop NY/MT $ /Mt

2006 1550 187

2008 1640 234

2011 2569 390

2012 Nov 2652 420

2013 Jan 2611

More and more Chinese farmers are increasing their control on production yield and water management

Rice System Irrigation 2012-13 Area In Ha Paddy

Irrigated 30.780.000

Rain fed 1.650.000

Mix System 670.000

Total Area Ha 33.100.000

Paddy EARLY CROP SINGLE CROP LATE CROP

Yield Mt /ha 5.7 Mt/ha 7.1 Mt/ha 5.57Mt/ha

% on total 26 46 28

140

170 192 185

198

162 185 190

200 210

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250

1980 1984 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2011 2012 2013

CHINA PADDY PRODUCTION MIO Mt 2 per. Mov. Avg. (CHINA PADDY PRODUCTION MIO Mt)


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RUSSIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 30.3508 Russian Rouble RUB 30/12/2012

MILLED RICE 2011 2012 2013 Forecast

Production 690.000 680.000 730.000

Local Consumption 700.000 700.000

Export 145.000 200.000

Import 150.000 170.000

G 1 = 8% Broken White Rice T 1 = 12% Broken White Rice

Futures EXW Rice Groats G1 January 13 18,810

Futures EXW Rice Groats G1 March 13 18,980

Futures EXW Rice Groats G1 May 13 19,150

Futures EXW Rice Groats T1 January 13 17,900

Futures EXW Rice Groats T1 March 13 18,070

Futures EXW Rice Groats T1 May 13 18,240

Futures EXW Raw Rice January 13 9,250

Futures EXW Raw Rice March 13 9,410

Futures EXW Raw Rice May 13 9,570

JAPAN Indicative level about 1 USD = 86.22 JPY Japanese Yen 30/12/2012

Rice is the main crop in Japan. It has been cultivated for more than 3,000 years in Japan

Estimates the 2012/13 rice area at 1.55 million hectares, down 26,000 hectares from last year and down about

120,000 hectares from 5 years ago (2007/08). The current rice crop was transplanted in early May (about 1

month before the time of the trip) and was in the early vegetative/tillering stage. The weather at planting was

generally favorable and Japanese officials said the crop was growing normally.

Rice production has been hurt by declining rice consumption which in turn is caused in part by

declining birthrate and the aging society. Annual rice consumption per capita has fallen from 67.3 kilograms

in 1996 to 60 kilograms in 2008. The government keeps a stockpile of rice that ideally is around 1 million

tons.

Production Surface in Ha/000 Mt paddy

2004 1700

2007 1670

2010 1600 10.500.000

2012-13 1550

Rice futures Jan 2013 14.710Yen/60 Kgs (USD 2.855 /Kg)


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AFRICA WEST AFRICA RICE SUPPLY /DEMAND

Burkina Faso, Chad, Ivory Coast, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea Conakry, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal

Togo, Nigeria

Main Importers in Africa

Import

Trend

Mt x

000

Stock end

Year

Nigeria Senegal Ivory

C

SAF Ghana Cameroon Kenya Mozambique Total

AFRICA

Total

AFRICA

2008-09 2000 710 800 745 410 300 295 385 8350 1500

2009-10 2000 685 840 730 320 300 280 325 8600 1500

2010-11 2500 805 935 885 540 310 335 360 10050 1600

2011-12 3200 1200 1300 950 480 375 390 375 12600 3200

The end year stocks expected will affect 2013 price and imported quantity.

FREIGHT CONTAINER TREND

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2011 2012 2013 Forecast

WEST AFRICA MILLED RICE PRODUCTION X 000 Mt IMPORT CONSUPTION

http://www.africansymbols.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/harmonyafricansymbols.png


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Dry Bulk freight Rates

Spot market in $1000/day – weekly average update Dec 21st 2012

Ytd 2011 Ytd 2012 Last week This week

Capesize 15.6 9.8 8.6 7.1

Handysize 10.6 7.6 6.6 6.6

FROM THE PRESS

THAILAND WAREHOUSE SPACE

“The government’s plan to use Don Mueang’s warehouse for stocking rice and its search for more

warehouses have sent warehouse costs flying. And many exporters have to store goods because of falling

shipments,” T. Sorat, vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries. The cost of warehousing and

logistics will continue to increase gradually because of higher demand for storage, he said.

About 95% of the country’s warehouses are now occupied. The government will face higher

operating costs for inventorying rice if it needs to rent private warehouses, he said. The cost of Don

Mueang’s cargo terminals is also quite high compared with private warehouses as they were built to house

products in good condition, which requires protection from humidity and flooding.

The average warehouse rent is Bt160-Bt190 (USD 6,3 /sq meter/ USD 1/Mt ) /square meter/month. Don

Mueang should be in the high Bt190s, he said. Using Don Mueang’s warehouse would force the

government to incur double handling costs, as it would have to pay high rent as well as for delivering rice

from mills to the warehouse and for shipping from the warehouse to buyers.

The government would not be able to keep as much rice as it wants at Don Mueang because of the

limited capacity, while the amount of pledged rice has passed 10 million tons. The upcoming harvest

season will also create a shortage of warehouses for holding rice if the government has no urgent plan to

release old rice from its stockpiles, he said.

Europe PAC – Agricultural Support

Europe is doing since 2005 the opposite choice to the one of the other big countries, who invest

massively to guarantee food security of their population.19 novembre 2012.

According to SGPA 2010, les global supports have increased of 130 % in China, 60 % in Brazil and 40 %

in USA. USA (163 milliards USD), China (154 milliards USD), UE (101 milliards USD) and Brazil (38


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milliards USD). According to the Think-tank, « if UE is persisting with this PAC reform, this will have

extremely serious consequences on agriculture and agrofood industries ».

India Rice Exports

India has emerged the world’s largest rice exporter, displacing Thailand from its leadership position,

with rice exports in marketing year 2011/12 (October-September) placed at a record 10.4 million tons.

India’s exports proved price competitive despite the fact that the government had raised the minimum

support price quite significantly. Higher support prices had in fact resulted in an increase in stocks with the

government. But this did not affect open market availability adversely, because of a record production

104.32 million tons of rice in 2011 due to a good monsoon. Procurement during the 2011-12 marketing

year reached a record 35 million tonnes. Moreover, despite an indifferent Southeast monsoon during 2012,

procurement in the marketing season starting October 2012 has also been high, with procurement as on

December 12, 2012 placed at 13.4 million tons, raising expectations that the government’s target of 40

million tons of rice procurement during 2012-13 would be realized.

The net result is that stocks of rice with the central pool are substantial. December 1, 2012 stocks

exceeded 30 million tons—far higher than the buffer stock and strategic requirement of 13.8 million tons on

January 1 of the marketing year. Adequate supply meant that all export surpluses during marketing year

2011-12 were mobilized from the open market, rather than from surplus stocks released by government

agencies. Yet, the export surge has not thus far resulted in any surge in domestic rice prices, given the

favorable demand supply balance.

The fact that export surpluses are being mobilized from the open market by the private trade implies that

export prices being received by India are higher than domestic procurement and open market prices.

Exporters can access supplies in the open market only by offering prices higher than the procurement price.

Indonesia

On Thursday, October 18, 2012 the Indonesian House of Representatives passed the Law on Food

and the Protection and Empowerment of Farmers. This law has the goal of making Indonesia self-sufficient

in key food staples, partly through restricting imports and exports, and establishing a new food authority to

ensure adequate food supplies. Article 34 of the new Food Law states that food exports can be restricted based

on determinations of domestic consumption needs and national interest. Furthermore, staple food exports can

only be implemented after fulfilling national food reserve and staple food consumption necessity.

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HAPPY & PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!!!!

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