insight_ china turf war over yuan reform rattles foreign firms _ reuters

8/14/2019 Insight_ China Turf War Over Yuan Reform Rattles Foreign Firms _ Reuters

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Insight: China turf war over yuan reformrattles foreign firmsEmpfehlen 44 Personen empfehlen das. Registriere dich, um die Empfehlungen

deiner Freunde sehen zu knnen.

By Pete Sweeney

SHANGHAI| Sun Aug 4, 2013 7:13pm EDT

(Reuters) - Multinational companies in Chinasay they

are being forced to pick sides in a turf war between

two major financial regulators fighting over which

agency will drive currency and capital account

liberalization.

The conflict between the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State

Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) risks undermining confidence

in the country's commitment to pulling down barriers that will finally open

up the economy, analysts say.

As President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang try to build confidence in

their reformist agenda through consensus and resolution, analysts say the

last thing they need is key agencies in charge of critical components of

policy being seen as in conflict.

"There's a perception, particularly outside of China, that policy is unfolding

according to some great plan," said Mark Williams, chief China economist

at Capital Economics in London. "Clearly that's never actually been the

case, but evidence of conflict within the government will certainly dent

confidence."

Over a dozen big-name companies are taking part in a range of pilot

programs that allow the free movement of the yuan and capital across

China's borders, addressing a common complaint of foreign managers that

it is easy to get investment into China but far more difficult to get profits

out.

The programs give the companies more freedom than they would otherwise have operating in

China, but they also provide the government with a laboratory to test how the economy might copewith the open financial system they have promised to ultimately deliver in order to put the world's

second-largest economy on a more sustainable development path.

Sources from companies with deep trade relationships with China, inside banks and from foreign

business associations, say the conflict between the two massive bureaucracies managing

separate clusters of pilot programs are beginning to impact decision-making at major corporations,

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DISCUSSED

which together channel billions of dollars in investment and trade in and out of China.

"There are too many pilot programs in our view," said a treasurer at a major European

multinational in charge of deploying systems used to settle company trade in yuan.

"There are schemes from SAFE and schemes from PBOC, and they don't like each other. If you

sign up for one, you might not be chosen for the other one. So you have to be very careful what

you choose and what you say to whom."

The treasurer said concerns about being stuck on the wrong side of a fight between powerful

bureaucracies - and rumors that other firms had been misled into overinvesting in municipal trials

that failed to live up to promises - prompted his firm to limit the amount of capital it committed totrial programs.

Four other sources said they too had been warned of the spat between the PBOC and SAFE, to

the extent that the conflict appears to have been an open secret in certain circles of the financial

community in China and Hong Kong.

"The advice we got was we should participate in one pilot or another because PBOC and SAFE

were competing against one another," said a financeexecutive from a major foreign multinational

with close working knowledge of the pilot programs, adding that multiple sources had given him the

same advice.

The sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity for fear that speaking publicly would

damage the prospects of their businesses in China. SAFE and PBOC did not respond to faxed

requests for comment.

The root of the conflict between the central bank and SAFE is not clear. Some analysts say the

struggle is simply over power, others believe different agendas are at the root of the conflict.

"The PBOC is taking a more open approach (to reform), whereas SAFE sees itself as a

gatekeeper," said a lead representative of a foreign business association in China.

The central bank manages the country's money supply and to an extent has authority over

Chinese banks, shared with the China Banking Regulatory Commission. SAFE handles the

country's foreign exchange reserves and manages cross-border currency flows. Technically SAFE

is under the supervision of the central bank, but in practice analysts say the relationship has been

frequently adversarial and agendas have conflicted.

TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING

Pilot schemes to test economic reforms locally before rolling them out nationally have been a

hallmark of China's development in the past three decades following former leader Deng

Xiaoping's slogan: "Cross the river by feeling the stones."

After years of breakneck economic expansion, Beijing has said widespread reforms, including

fiscal, monetary and legal changes, are needed to secure future growth. It is expected to produce

a road map for further economic reforms in October.

China's yuan is currently convertible under the current account, the broadest measures of

international trade in services and goods. But Beijing maintains tight restrictions on the capital

account, worried that freeing up the yuan too quickly could leave the economy vulnerable to rapid

movements in capital in and out of the country.

It also manages the yuan's exchange rate and domestic interest rates. Many economists see these

as key financial reforms, without which China will have difficulty transitioning away from its old

state-dominated, investment-intensive economic model toward a more market-driven and globally

competitive structure.

China has over 10 currency or capital account-related pilot programs that are active or under

development, testing different aspects of liberalization from simply reducing red tape, to allowing

outbound investment and to sophisticated programs allowing cross border lending and intra-

company payments.

The publicly announced list of participants boasts some of the largest foreign multinationals in

China. They include Royal Dutch Shell, Samsung Electronics, Standard Chartered Bank and Intel

Inc. Major Chinese state-owned enterprises with significant overseas trade and finance operations

are also involved.

The development of an offshore market trading the yuan in Hong Kong - which is subject to

different laws and rules to mainland China - is widely considered a successful example of how a

pilot project can work.

In China, in addition to pilots managed exclusively by SAFE and PBOC, municipal governments

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and other central bureaucracies are also starting to enter the fray.

In 2012 Qianhai, an area in Shenzhen across from Hong Kong, designated an empty field as a

zone for co-operation with the central bank.

In June, China's cabinet allowed Shanghai to launch its own "free trade zone" (FTZ), which state

media said would trial unspecified currency and capital account reforms.

Domestic media have reported that the cities of Tianjin, Xiamen and Guangzhou applied to create

similar zones, and rumors of competition between the other institutions involved in the new zones

are also rife.

FEAR OF COMMITMENT

Pei Yigen, head of treasury and trade solutions for Citi China, argued it should not matter much

whether the PBOC and SAFE get along. The pilot programs are different enough in scope so a

company should choose the one that fits its needs the best, he said.

"Given limited resources, it actually makes more sense for a company to concentrate on one

scheme at this stage," Pei said.

The more fundamental question when it comes to reform more broadly, says Zhu Haibin, chief

China economist for J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong, is whether Beijing is taking a step forward or a

step sideways.

"My concern is that we are hearing about reform again and again, but we are still waiting for more

concrete actions," Zhu said.

Skeptical economists have pointed out that China has been committed to opening up its capital

account since 1993, yet has failed to follow through; to them the pilots are designed to deliver the

appearance of a reform drive devoid of substance.

The dilemma for Beijing is that if the scope of a pilot program is too limited, its success or failure

can be criticized as not indicative; but if it is widened to the extent that it serves as a genuine test,

massive arbitrage would quickly turn the trial into a de-facto nationwide policy change.

There is also the question of a level playing field.

"It's a little bit frustrating that if you happen to be headquartered in one city versus another city,

you get different treatment," said the finance executive.

Others argue the multiplicity of approaches reflects a government deeply divided over what itwants to do.

"The Chinese have been playing bureaucratic games for 2000 years. They are pretty

experienced," said Andy Xie, an independent China economist who criticizes the pilot project

approach as outdated.

"The meaningful thing is to do something for the whole country, the whole system. Not to open a

hole and then put a cap on it," he said.

But Xie said that the most important struggle was not between reformist camps within the

bureaucracy but between reformers and vested interests that benefitted from the old status quo.

By quibbling amongst themselves, Chinese economic reformers are not only putting off key

stakeholders, but giving comfort to those who do not want any reform at all.

"The only way to change China is to open the dam and allow money to leave."

(This version of the story adds a dropped letter in headline.)

(Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in HONG KONG, Koh Guiqing in BEIJING and the

Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by Neil Fullick)

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Comments (6)

JLwrote:

In a world with fiat money and corrupt financial institutions in the west, China is prudent to take small stepsand monitor the impact before any major policy changes.

Aug 04, 2013 6:16pm EDT - - Report as abuse

Arrywrote:

Think your miss ing the point of these competing programs Peter. Theres always been different programsby different governments, agencies and departments. Unlike politicians in the US where positions areawarded by popular votes (which in turn requires lots of campaign funding, hence their vulnerability to lobbygroups). Promotion within the CCCP is determined by meritocracy. Success of programs like these andeconomic performance of their postings often determine where their next career path will be.

It wasnt too long ago that Xi Jinping was overlooking the Shanghai special economic zone and the success

of that project lead Shanghai as the tech capitol of China.

Aug 04, 2013 7:54pm EDT - - Report as abuse

sylvanwrote:

So it seems the job creators have worked themselves into a bit of a corner with their Davos inspired worlddomination of the 1%. If you move your manufacturing to China or South Korea,hey pick your patents and intellectual property clean, and then keep any profits you made form your

investments or use US agencies to sue you and try to stop you from selling your own products in ourdomestic markets. They might also lock you up and refuse to let you leave the country as part of their labornegotiations. I guess the mighty titans of private equity and hedge funds forgot to explain these minor flawsin their attempt to concentrate wealth in 1% of entitled white males. Since corporations are people, myfriend, I guess it is a personal problemif they were businesses, the US government might have beenable to help them.

Aug 05, 2013 6:59am EDT - - Report as abuse

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insight_ china turf war over yuan reform rattles foreign firms _ reuters

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