insight from indonesia...slaughter steer: compensatory growth and then fast decline in performance....
TRANSCRIPT
INSIGHT FROM INDONESIA
WILLIAM BULO, GENERAL MANAGER, JJAA
43 Feedlot & 143 Abattoirs (RPH)
Cattle Producers
In the middle
High demand,
Low Cattle Population
27 % of Indonesian lives in Western Part of Java
FEEDLOT AND ABATTOIR DISTRIBUTION
Source : Gapuspindo , 2016
East and Central Indonesia Rural & remote area from city
Cities in West Indonesia
Cities in West Indonesia
Cities in West Indonesia
$10 - $13 /kg
$9 - $12 /kg
$7 - $10 /kg
$5 - $9 /kg
LOCAL CATTLE
AUSTRALIAN CATTLE
(AUSTRALIAN) BOXED BEEF
INDIAN BUFFALO MEAT
SUPPLY MAIN AREA CONSUMED WET MARKET PRICE (AUD)
INDONESIA BEEF SUPPLY
INDONESIA BEEF SUPPLY
* Actual YTD Sep 2017
SUPPLY 2016 2017 Forecast
Total Beef Consumption 651,424 t 100% 604,996 t 100%
Local Cattle 441,014 t 68% 409,582 t 59%
Total Beef Imported 112,696 t 17% 104,664 t 18%
→ Box Beef 63,421 t 10% 42,976 t 12%
→ Indian Buffalo Meat 49,275 t 8% 20,622 t 6%
Imported Cattle 97,714 t 15% 90,749 t 23%
or Equal to 581,925 hd 540,000 hd
Source : MoAgriculture RI, Compiled, 2017
AUSTRALIAN LIVE CATTLE IMPORTS 2016 VS 2017
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hea
d
IMPORTS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL
2016 30,032 58,515 49,706 53,776 20,132 85,901 46,461 81,576 - 20,283 69,273 66,270 581,925
2017 15,545 34,408 53,892 35,064 41,785 28,250 18,007 52,665 54,769 40,000 35,000 30,000 439,385
2017 Forecast
September 2016 no imports due to the government introducing policy to feedlots to apply 1:5 breeder ratio
Significant increase from October to March 2017 to compensate for no imports in September until late October 2017
2017 imports 24 % lower than 2016 due to higher Australian cattle prices and slower Indonesia market
2017 YTD 2016
Forecast Source : Gapuspindo , 2017
INDONESIAN FEEDLOTS REQUIREMENTS
IDEAL SPECIFICATIONS NOT IDEAL
Reasonable Price ADG producer Prefer Brahman Cross, Charbray 320 – 350 kg BSC 2- 3 / 5 Age 0 – 2 teeth Slick Coat
Forward condition, fat cattle
Anything too Hairy
Straight Shorthorn
MANAGABLE : CATTLE OF DIFFERENT SPECS BUT FOR THE RIGHT PRICE
OP
ERAT
ION
AL
KP
I
ADG
• CATTLE
• RATION
• HANDLING
• FEED MANAGMENT
FCR
• CATTLE
• RATION
• HANDLING
• FEED MANAGMENT
CARCASS YIELD
• CATTLE
• RATION
• DOF
• FEED MANAGMENT
DOF
• IMPORT MANAGMENT
• CATTLE
• ADG
• SALES MANAGMENT
COST OF GAIN
1. CATTLE: Genetics, frame, age, condition, temperament and breed
2. RATION: Quality of commodities & ration formulation
3. HANDLING & CONDITIONS: Low stress handling, pulling sick cattle, cleaning and density in pens, rain, temperature
4. FEED MANAGEMENT: Feed, allocation, timing, loading, mixing, delivery. KEY
FA
CTO
RS
FEEDLOT KPI
CATTLE SPECS
SMALL FRAME Breed Genetics: Cross bred brahman with some Bos Taurus content. Allows for
continued growth later in the feeding program, whilst retaining carcass yield. Small frame, store condition <330 kg: Earlier to mature, weight gain will plateau
earlier, resulting in higher fat content and lower ADG. Medium frame, store condition 330 – 360 kg: Ability to maximize feedlot
performance and supply the current market demand. Large frame, store condition > 360 kg: Ability to maximize feedlot performance.
Currently the market requires smaller cattle, must sell in 90 days, before too heavy. Forward condition: Slower growth, and will be early to mature in the feedlot,
therefore hard to manage with DOF to meet customer needs. Higher price to purchase kg that could be gained in the feedlot.
Slaughter : Require less DOF to achieve maximum potential, more difficult to sell under the current market conditions. More health and non-eater problems on arrival than younger feeder cattle. The trade off is cheaper purchase price.
GENETICS
BODY SCORE
AGE
FRAME
60 DOF 80 DOF 100 DOF 120 DOF
1.9 Kg
1.7 Kg
1.5 Kg
ADG
1.3 Kg
40 DOF
PERFORMANCE BY CATTLE TYPE
Slaughter Steer: Compensatory growth and then fast decline in performance.
Forward Condition: Cannot maximize growth in first 40 DOF. Will go to fat quickly.
Feeder medium-Large frame: Reach higher growth first 40 DOF and can retain growth for longer.
Small Frame Steers: Can not maximize growth in 40 days, ADG will Plateau and lay fat down earlier.
PERFORMANCE BY BREED
CHARBRAY Higher carcass yield Less stress, good temperament Handle conditions, with brahman cont. Higher ADG performance: +0.10 kg/day
BRANGUS Higher carcass yield Handle conditions but need slick coat Harder to handle shipping conditions Higher ADG performance: +0.07 kg/day
DOUGHTMASTER Faster to adapt to conditions Less stress, good temperament Higher carcass yield Higher ADG +0.04 kg/day
BRAHMAN CROSS Heat and humidity resistance Easier to adapt to environment Can have good ADG, Yield and feed
conversion
SANTA GERTRUDIS Less Heat resistance, longer to adapt Higher stress after shipping Lower feed intakes Lower ADG: - (0.04) kg/day
BREED VS ADG*
Brahman Cross Base
Charbray + 0.10 kg/day
Bragus + 0.07 kg/day
Droughtmaster + 0.04 kg/day
Santa - (0.04) kg/day
* ADG based on data from 22,000 head of Feeder Steers (Santa Gertrudis is a low percentage of the total).
* All dollar amounts shown in AUD
STEER
PROFITABILITY Feeder Steer
In Spec Feeder Steer
Out of Spec
Feeder Steer
Forward Condition
Slaughter/Ox
OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE VS PURCHASE PRICE BY CATTLE TYPE
ADG 1.55 1.35 1.40 1.35
FCR 8.71 9.63 10.00 10.37
CARCASS YIELD 50.80% 50.20% 49.80% 50.00%
DOF 120 120 90 90
COG $2.77 $3.17 $3.10 $3.21
Purchase KG 350 350 360 470
Sales KG 533 509 482 587
Pruchase Price FAS $3.15 $2.90 $3.15 $2.90
Import Cost/Kg $1.14 $1.11 $1.13 $1.11
Break Even Point $3.79 $3.77 $4.00 $3.87Sales Price $3.82 $3.79 $3.82 $3.77
Profit/Loss per kg $0.03 $0.03 ($0.18) ($0.10)
Profit (Loss)/HD $17.41 $12.92 ($87.26) ($58.51)
BREAK EVEN
Considering all in spec feeder cattle with same average operational KPI
* All dollar amounts shown in AUD
PROFITABILITY OUTLOOK: IMPACT OF AUSTRALIAN PRICE
STEER HEIFER STEER HEIFER STEER HEIFER
ADG 1.55 1.40 1.55 1.40 1.55 1.40
FCR 8.71 8.93 8.71 8.93 8.71 8.93
CARCASS YIELD 50.80% 50.60% 50.80% 50.60% 50.80% 50.60%
DOF 120 110 120 110 120 110
COG $2.77 $2.96 $2.74 $2.96 $2.80 $2.97
Purchase KG 350 350 350 350 350 350
Sales KG 533 501 533 501 533 501
Pruchase Price FAS $3.05 $2.85 $3.20 $3.00 $3.35 $3.15
Import Cost/Kg $1.13 $1.12 $1.15 $1.13 $1.16 $1.14
Break Even Point $3.72 $3.70 $3.82 $3.81 $3.95 $3.92Sales Price $3.82 $3.77 $3.82 $3.77 $3.82 $3.77
Profit/Loss per kg $0.10 $0.08 $0.00 ($0.03) ($0.13) ($0.14)
Profit (Loss)/HD $51.69 $37.85 $0.73 ($16.41) ($67.59) ($72.22)
AUGUST 2017
OCTOBER 2017
JANUARY 2018
ANIMAL WELFARE
SMALL FRAME Follow cattle through supply chain with RFID from Australian station to abattoir
24 hour monitoring of cattle at feedlot for any health and welfare issues
High standards of low stress stock handling and care at the feedlot
Regular maintenance on equipment at feedlot and abattoirs
JJAA Animal Welfare officer in every abattoir, routine internal and external audits
Build, improve, and upgrade the facilities to meet the OIE guidelines for animal welfare,
Indonesian Government regulation, and ESCASS
SHIPPING
CATTLE HANDLING
& CARE
ABATTOIR
ANIMAL HEALTH
INDONESIAN BUTCHER REQUIREMENTS
REQUIRE DON’T WANT
Reasonable Price High Carcass Yield Consistent Carcass Yield Smaller Cattle (< 550 kg)
FAT LOW YIELDING LARGE CATTLE ( >550 KG)
MANAGABLE: SLAUGHTER CATTLE (COWS, HEAVY STEERS, BULLS, OX)
END CONSUMER
Most of the product was sold in wet market, few that goes to Supermarket;
70% - 50% Meat Ball Production; to be made into Bakso balls, prefer lean meat.
25% - 40% Hotel, Restaurant, Catering and Party; accept most meat cuts or side products of the cattle.
5% - 10% Household; which can accept any kind of meat or side product of the cattle.
BAKSO SOTO RENDANG
THANK YOU
PT. Juang Jaya Abdi Alam (Owned by CPC) Address : Sidomulyo, South Lampung, Indonesia